11:28
There is very positive news right now for Ukraine, even the UN has picked up the pace.
Incredibly exciting that the bubble of crossing the Dnipro with shooting and establishing BTG killer-zones has materialized, it was a very clear pros and cons as I recall when it came up last spring or whenever it was.
There is quite a bit of trolling around the crossing of the Dnipro and if you take a look at the map there are strong reasons to try to pull in units to the defense of the Dnipro if the chess move down towards Azov is unleashed. East of Mariupol is where my money is, as you know.
We already have reports that elite units have been moved up to northern Luhansk, I guess they were pulled away weeks before operation Badanka and then moved up.
That means two things, partly that the pressure is hard but also that they have no other units to send there right now. Admittedly, 200,000 mobilized in various stages of training will eventually join units but at this moment they had to reallocate units from Kherson up to northern Luhansk. This could be because all the elite units were there but it could also be that they desperately needed to free units from Kherson and therefore ordered the retreat, then blamed it on maintenance – if the latter is true, the condition on the Russian side is poor right now.
There is also increased intensity in the fighting in northern Luhansk and in terms of timing it is absolutely time for another push eastward by Ukraine. It also seems that the Russian side expects this because they are reinforcing there.
One begins to think that more bubbles might be on the way, most notably – Putin falls, the army has had enough and goes home, and the less likely popular uprising.
What speaks against the second is the puzzle piece with the call from the newly mobilized, a regiment where 2,500 have fallen and only 100 remain in defense. Even the newly mobilized go to death without protest or hesitation and the sluggishness is still enormous.
You have also seen the recent videos about fights between officers and soldiers – still there is no protest against the war as such, it is against bad leadership, poor equipment, no food and all that which upsets. The soldiers, including the newly mobilized, have no major problems killing Ukrainians.
If they had food, warmth and the best equipment – zero complaints.
Then of course the spontaneous devastation when they retreated from Kherson, the murders, blowing up everything and the threats. This comes from the soldiers. The soldiers could have hugged the elderly and apologized for their actions but they murdered, stole, raped, blew up, devastated and threatened before they left.
-Deprogramming such behavior could probably make any psychologist throw in the towel, is it even possible?
We said in the spring, especially after May 9 when we understood that in Russia the Ukraine war was a disturbing mosquito (more than that today) and that the sluggishness was enormous, that we cannot count on any of the bubbles but it is up to Ukraine to retake their country by force and if it happens, it happens.
If they only get the equipment in sufficient quantity they are well on their way to a win here – beginning of the end as said and the pins will slowly start to fall.
11:32
From a combat technical perspective, it seems they have really gotten up steam with pre-combat, the drones locate almost everything (and the all-seeing eye) and then they start working away the defense methodically, they infiltrate (all of the West’s) SOF deep and disrupt, they strike at logistics with – SOF, air, army aviation, indirect fire.
When an area is isolated and mapped out, it is time for maneuver units and they gather some mech battalion as an armored fist (still signaling a lack of armor) and they stand outside near-PV distance for a while with direct fire since all armor is already knocked out. Then there is a breakthrough with the mech battalion and motorized infantry follows.
They are clearly looking for the weak points and trying to encircle to force the Russians into a pit to become Russians on the highway, SOF deep probably forms part of the encirclement.
When Russian fire brigade forces have to go up to UFA and try to retake terrain, air, army aviation and tungsten rain are there and wreak havoc.
It has been mentioned already in the thread but right now Russian capability apart from the elite units is really only to be able to go into static defense and then they get completely outclassed by the above 3D warfare, or combined arms warfare is probably the correct term. Above all, they will be encircled.
They had to free all VDV and elite units from Kherson and if they don’t waste them against Bakhmut they can in principle form a decent defense BUT they depend on LV, defense against drones and being able to act covertly – these capabilities they no longer have so even VDV will be defeated over time, just that they struggle a bit longer.
We saw film of CAS at Bakhmut yesterday which is somewhat incredible and we know that (we believe that) NS defense through Svatove is hastily assembled and rather isolated settlements than an overlapping defense line. The defense lies in channeling terrain and Ukraine gets around with SOF and bridge builders to encircle.
The Ukrainian steamroller is certainly rolling now and wears down the Russian army one front section at a time.
The only thing that can really tip the scale is if the West stops sending equipment so continuing with the support packages is of utmost importance. One must keep an eye on opinion formation that either peace is made to protect the children or that we cannot spare equipment – these two arguments are only good for Putin and bad for everyone else. The Goulash Baron and Bazaar Sultan have outed themselves but there will be more.
12:00
This is completely crazy, sometimes everything is just good 🙂
http://www.svenskbyborna.se/2022/11/14/2897/
They have followed all three separately and then they converge.
12:04
I actually didn’t see that coming but thought they would fortify the eastern side and that it would be difficult to cross the river.
Right now they are giving Ukraine a free pass to open a threat on the flank against the entire southern front which they then must try to get rid of or give up the entire southern front.
In hindsight, one can probably conclude that it was a big mistake to abandon the city of Kherson while east of Inhulets they had fought over it it would have delayed everything, they would have bought time. I was quite sure they would defend the city as long as they could.
This partly feels like the events have run ahead of decision-making?
12:45
Conspiracy theory warning since it is Slava but wondering why they post below, there are many options and one is that things are starting to move inside Russia?
Another which I think Slava wants to suggest is that the CIA is playing under the table with Russia but we can disregard that.
Whether that is true or not, I have no clue and the source is highlighted in red.
”The head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Naryshkin, flew from Ankara to Tehran after meeting with the head of the CIA, Burns”
12:49
Ukraine is so restrained that it almost makes you suspicious. Likely the US has given them guidelines with threats of withdrawn aid or something because it is a big effort not to take revenge on the Russian team.
And they still have every single reason to do so.
I understand that they have better control over the flow of information than the Russians but if Ukraine had engaged in this on a large scale we would have seen it. There were some fake videos from the Russians in the beginning but since then we haven’t seen anything at all except some overly tight tape.
They seem to find the tape amusing because now the Russians are starting to look completely wrapped up.
12:51
Yes, one spends a little too much time on the blog, the new gaming for adults.
Funny enough, I have a rule to assess whether a city is livable or not, the number of piles of dog poop on the ground.
For example, we were looking for something in Lisbon and came across Barreiro, close to the water we thought, looked nice in the picture and we went to check out an apartment but you had to dodge between dog piles so we turned around immediately.
I apply the same to the Russians just like you, it’s among the absolute dirtiest I’ve seen, not even the worst teenager behaves like that.
12:55
They had sneaked in 1500 men into Kiev before the war started (according to Ukrainian sources) and lots of other fun things but pretty quickly the Spetsnaz, reconnaissance and all elite units were at the front lines instead of pimped shooting.
The height of waste was probably the 30 attack divers who died on a hill outside Kiev, what a waste of resources.
I don’t know their lineup well enough but I have the impression that all the units they have are arrestable and that the FSB and the other “agencies” are used internally or against the army rather than being the army’s forward part?
If nothing else, they should have lost a large part of their reconnaissance capability through losses?
13:26
At least the Russians expect the chess move.
(Pro-Russian side)
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1592276882833264641?s=46&t=qnDR5cmuSrBYnmOxmHOd3g
18:43
Do we know why Khakovka is not generating electricity?
https://twitter.com/tpyxanews/status/1592490353252519936?s=46&t=lR8pkzaYcvT2iJ9eUvXM0A
20:27
Russia wants nothing more than NATO to intervene so they can blame the loss on something, get their stab-in-the-back legend, rally those with aversion to the West, etc.
Right now they have nothing credible to go on, they are just getting soundly beaten by Ukraine which receives surplus equipment from the West.
The time when Western intervention would have made a difference is over, now the West should just let Ukraine continue kicking the tired Russian in front of them and top up with equipment.
One can probably smoke out the last hidden Kremlin loyalists in the public debate after this – those who want the West to go all in 🙂
20:33
As MRF wrote earlier today, this is all they have and can do and it’s not even enough to make the Ukrainians angrier anymore, they just take the opportunity to have shelter parties and party on instead.
Apparently shot down almost 90%, which can be considered among Europe’s best air defenses and number two after Iron Dome?
07:51
Neutral very high in equipment again, neutrally one can say that the Russians are getting beaten around the clock every day right now.
In the beginning when losses started to rise we talked about months until heavy equipment went to zero in Ukraine. Sure, they push in new equipment but the question is probably whether they are starting to run short on armor now?
I have lost count but at least 2+3+2 weeks of high losses now which is over a month where they have taken neutral heavy beating every day.
Now it is, as usual, completely quiet but a lot of armor and combat vehicles were captured near Kherson as expected, standing with technical faults, stuck in mud or abandoned.
07:57
I think we have been a bit influenced by the fact that the Russians use S300 against ground targets.
UA’s equivalent has naturally been aimed at a Russian rocket/missile (I never learn) and reasonably it should have been aimed eastward and not westward so if it went all the way into Poland it probably followed the Russian one?
Now it doesn’t matter because Poland is not making a fuss about this but there are three possible explanations which are probably equally likely?
In the big game this is nothing.
-UA S300 follows incoming Russian, both land in Poland.
-It is a Russian something and it is downplayed because escalation with NATO benefits Russia.
-It was a Ukrainian S300 and at first Poland wanted to blame the Russian but after a while had to give up.
10:58
Unfortunate for Putin that Zelensky holds the entire deck in the negotiations.
Moreover, the demands are completely reasonable, which must sting even more – leave Ukraine and pay for the damages.
I noticed that he dropped the prosecution part if I understood this correctly?