10:43
There are now 8 maneuver brigades released from Kherson to be deployed on another front – that is a huge blow that can be delivered at another front section. They hold the Dnipro with territorial troops and then send in SOF and maybe some infantry battalion roaming around on the eastern bank forcing the Russians to meet them under the UA artillery umbrella – just like Davydiv Brid. Incidentally, notable that our idea about exactly that, crossing with infantry over the Dnipro happened immediately. The guy who succeeded with the Davydiv Brid plan probably got renewed trust?
11:23
I understand this might be getting repetitive.
If we move beyond the Russian plan to hold their defensive positions over the winter and Ukraine’s to get them out of the pits, naturally what is a bit more dangerous is going on in the background, Russian psyops and subversive activities. If Ukraine increases pressure this winter, it will increase correspondingly.
Dictators always navigate their way to the top in a complicated landscape where the losing ticket means quick death for the whole family. They are experts at what they do across the board, otherwise they wouldn’t have succeeded.
Therefore, I have a bit of difficulty understanding Orban who still gives Russia his unconditional support with the Greater Hungary scarf and various statements.
Same with Iran but I suspect they didn’t quite manage to analyze the situation correctly and thought they would gain advantages by helping Russia – from that only a burnt childhood home came.
Erdogan must be given credit for maneuvering masterfully, the loose line should be impossible to walk but he goes on. Hanging out with Putin and Biden at the same time while steering Turkey requires a man.
P@rrmuschen – here I can basically only imagine that he is trying to survive as a dictator and does what he must. Anything can come from that country, palace coup to joining the war.
I conclude that Russia still must be able to conduct a convincing argument with them, that they come out winning from this reasonably? We know Hungary had advance information about the attack on February 24 so they have a direct line to the Kremlin. It should reasonably be so that Russia is now preparing a renewed offensive in the spring and that is what they are communicating to their allies.
We have our periods when we become hopeful about a dark horse, yesterday was not such a day because we understood that the Russians can fire at least 4500 missiles over Ukraine and we know that a few hundred can knock out 20%-25% of the power supply for a few weeks.
-here the conclusion must probably be that UA plans to take out the missile carriers because they are fewer than the number of missiles left. We have the navy and Magnus Redin was on about taking out strategic aviation. Launchers on the ground can probably be dealt with using ATACMS or equivalent ammunition. The whole discussion about not shooting into Russia is obsolete, ask the residents of Belgorod.
Then we have the dark horse palace coup in Russia but judging by Orban’s actions at least he hasn’t received PM that Putin is falling, he got a scarf.
My money is on Putin being taken out by his bodyguard when we least expect it. Read the other day in some thread that the Praetorian Guard in Rome took out 13 emperors.
I also believe that Putin has excelled in securing his control over Russia. It is almost enough to see how newly mobilized go straight into death knowing they will die to understand that. The first thing that should happen is that the army refuses war but it does not (yet).
It can only be because there are repressive systems that are worse so gambling on a high-knee attack is the least bad option. I think the desecration in front of the Kadyrov Chechen platoon and then when Wagner smashed a deserter that Ukraine exchanged back in a prisoner swap says something. You probably castrate your own too one can guess.
You always end up with the only way forward for Ukraine is to take back all its land by force and they have also concluded that. Zelensky has incredible integrity together with his Chief of Defense.
All compromises less than this are good for Russia – I think the ceasefire during the World Cup in Qatar was an incredibly clever attempt actually, they had thought it through but it fell flat as expected.
Then we will hear proposals to cede land in the future in all its forms – that also only benefits Russia. Some kind of autonomous province/region in Donbass that belongs to Ukraine but has greater independence or something packaged as nicely as the World Cup in Qatar.
Then we have the attack on our power supply.
The countries that benefit the most from Russia staying in Ukraine have given absolutely everything they can in the form of offensive weapons.
The countries that benefit the least from it because they are at a safe distance have also given a lot, some should give more because the Netherlands will never be invaded by Russia.
Sweden has for many years hitched a ride on Finland holding the border, the big unit losses and all the fun.
But we are also one of the countries that would benefit the most from Russia weakening because it has always been part of their plans to secure the northern flank in one way or another so they could get their fleet out. Gotland was threatened enough a few years ago for permanent troops on the island and the submarine violations in the 80s were probably the closest East and West came to war then in Europe?
Isn’t it enough to ask the question – do we want to go back to the Cold War and submarine violations, because that is what Russia wants and is trying?
One thing you must be clear about is that as long as Ukraine keeps pushing, the strategy of hitching a ride works but if Ukraine loses momentum and Russia gets a breather to build up tough defensive positions that become as hard to take as Kherson then Russia goes straight on with steps two, three and four in its plan because the war in Ukraine becomes static and they will manage to maintain that while coming up with other things. Ukraine can then no longer protect all of Europe because Russia can take the war beyond Ukraine.
(long section about free rides, fluff and confiscated with lies removed)
11:28
It has been communicated externally that Ukraine is receiving Turkish missiles with longer range that nearly reach the NS supply route outside Ukraine, Rostov-on-Don and the main depots in the darkest Donbass that create moon craters.
I think it is time for Ukraine to start striking the bare supply lines and that it is not just the Turkish missile. If they can disrupt the supply all winter, they will have caused more damage than guided ammunition in the world has been able to. Cold, wetness and starvation ravaging among the Russians.
Somewhat like with the helicopter footage in Belgorod this spring.
12:19
On site can probably come in many forms.
The least confrontational but most effective would be Western weapons from the top shelf for offensive use.
The West would probably get away with light vehicle systems west of the Dnieper with Western crews but in Ukrainian uniforms. If questions arise, they are international legion soldiers.
Field hospitals would also work staffed from the West.
My guess is that Ukraine has the personnel for everything but they need materiel. They should get everything they point at.
14:41
Here it became the big right-left discussion when the important thing was that Russia is now classified as a terrorist state by none other than the EU.
Now even I understand that it won’t be SEAL Team 6 directly but surely life can be made miserable for the ruling elite now?
The UK is likely to join this and suddenly everyone who has dealings (contacts and economic ties) is either protecting criminals or involved in illegal money transactions and all that?
It doesn’t help if the wife or children own everything when it becomes a terrorist classification, I assume?
15:26
If the power has gone out in all of Ukraine, that’s pretty bad?
Russia constantly adapts its tactics and they have learned target saturation and to strike at the power supply.
Once they start learning what to knock out in the power supply, they can probably keep Ukraine without power for long periods.
It is precisely the target saturation that makes Ukraine unable to shoot down all incoming missiles.
16:10
Now the water supply in Kiev is completely knocked out.
I think they have learned where to place the missiles, unfortunate…
Now we need a huge Ukrainian blow somewhere, I would like to see them blackout Moscow.
It will be a SOF operation.
Other targets are probably the Kerch Bridge again, some ships or ammo depots in Rostov-on-Don, Belgorod or the darkest Donbass. Things that have been outside so far so they have a monstrously large stockpile that leaves moon craters.
16:14
Then Ukraine probably needs to quickly focus on striking the missile platforms, if you can shoot fewer in a salvo it increases the chance to shoot down all of them.
As for the navy, I think they can smuggle in some submarine from the West or whatever and knock it out.
Strategic bombers are a bit trickier since they are deep inside Russia. SOF operations against the air bases?
10:42
Sorry OT – 10:25 I think this deserves its own post because organized crime has bought up smaller businesses for many years or forced the business owners/small fry to work for them.
It is the organized crime’s funds that are being laundered in this system now that cash has disappeared.
It is somewhat INCREDIBLE that this is a blind spot because then one has in fact failed to strike against organized crime/criminal clans/drug gangs altogether.
When Encrochat was cracked, the police announced that all criminal gangs had a contact at the bank, it was the rule rather than the exception.
Then we learned that criminals get mortgages even though they do not qualify for them by paying 1 million SEK. Housing has previously been something criminals could not acquire. They have had to live poorly but driven Porsches and the latest Rolex (kind of…).
I know this sounds a bit alarmist but when organized crime has enough funds to pay bribes that change lifestyles and has a violent capital that makes people afraid – then they gain power that is very difficult to tackle.