14:03
There seems to be massive pre-engagement activity on the Southern front right now and both UA and the Russian circus are loading up with reinforcements.
I was sitting yesterday thinking it would be super easy to get around drone-dropped wing grenades, you cover all the bunkers with at least a tarp and mostly with superstructure.
Now the wandering circus has just managed to learn to dig something better than a shallow pit, they have even produced some planks, so it will likely be several months before they have roofs over all bunkers.
Should not be confused with the bunker in the trench system which is built stronger.
A roof actually protects up to 82mm but a cover makes it hard to see, then the drones have to recon over time how the Russian in the pit hops around and croaks.
The plan is quite obvious – HIMARS against the rear and guided/laser-guided dumb ammunition against targets in the battle lines – concentrated troops or hard targets. The drone grenades are down to the platoon level and they drop them on Russians in pits.
About this time Ukraine should have perfected this whole ensemble so wherever they unleash it there will be dead Russians in pits.
If you, for example, take out all hard targets in a front section and keep the artillery away with counterbattery fire, it doesn’t matter how well fortified a trench system is. First, tanks roll forward out of range of close-range anti-tank weapons and take out everything moving together with indirect fire and drone bombs.
Then you bring up infantry protected from shrapnel with tanks as support in a mechanized assault. As long as you have enough firepower on the target, the armored infantry doesn’t take too heavy losses because the Russians lie at the bottom of their pits sulking or choosing life. We’ve seen quite a few videos of that. Ukraine has learned to play tight poker (TM LarsC) even with mechanized assaults which can be considered a pretty high level of skill.
What one starts to wonder is whether Ukraine with this strategy and the weather’s effect on Russians in pits can attack through heavily fortified areas by sheer force?
I’m starting to lean that way, we’ll see at the southern front but so far my thoughts have been about where the weak point is because that has been somewhat Ukraine’s style so far.
Thinking pure force, Melitopol is not a bad attack target for the wedge down towards Azov. You might not encompass as large units as if you go down east of Mariupol but you achieve the blocks against Crimea which is the essential part and it’s a pretty good NS line of natural defense – a good start.
I’ve so far seen it as impossible partly due to the natural defense and also the Russians’ numerical superiority in that area but maybe it’s time to reconsider.
The three encirclements starting to form at Bakhmut, Toretsk, and Avdiivka are quite interesting because from a strategic perspective they are completely irrelevant and above all they are poor warfare if the Russians go and get beaten in northern Luhansk and with the chess move down towards Azov – both are underway.
It is notable that Ukraine is active again and wants offensive Western weapons, they clearly have that need because they probably have good intelligence and know that the Russians are preparing as best they can for the spring offensive.
They probably also know that they should take the opportunity to inflict maximum damage on Russians in pits during the winter season to give Putin the worst possible starting position when spring comes. He has to send everything down to Donbass on mined roads and tungsten rain or straight against fortified defense lines.
14:07
*(because I did NOT read LW carefully enough) is what it should of course say…
14:15
Renewed missile attacks underway.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1598278004383285249?s=20&t=08ecti2VvZ72SLhaW0p2Og
14:18
When you read stuff like this you realize you have totally missed what the sanctions were about, I have lived under the belief that we don’t buy Russian oil?
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1598201341360623616?s=20&t=08ecti2VvZ72SLhaW0p2Og
13:25
This thing about decoy targets I find very interesting. It hasn’t really been on the agenda since WW2 and at least I have lived under the impression that the Russians’ intelligence gathering was better than this (because I did NOT read LW carefully enough).
For example, the Russians believe they have taken out all Ukrainian HIMARS because they have videos of lots of decoy targets going up in smoke and then that thing with the airbases – brilliantly smart.
Here, the defense forces are probably taking notes and stockpiling rolls of crater covers on oilcloth and have gotten some carpentry workshop to build Archers out of wood.