09:11
I don’t think anyone escapes this, maybe those with high salaries or strong capital in a rental apartment without a vacation home?
Then of course we have exceptions who managed to lock both interest rates and electricity prices at the bottom (especially in the thread) but I don’t think many have been able to do everything right here because there are too many factors. I was quite happy to avoid the interest rates and have geothermal heating but that was short-lived joy.
The interest rates have probably tripled from the lowest level and the electricity price about tenfold – these are not small cost increases that citizens are supposed to absorb within two years on top of general inflation. Over time, fixed loans and electricity contracts also expire – my previous fixed mortgage expired in February 2023 and the interest costs had tripled overnight.
I considered the following –
– families with children rarely have margins and are crushed by everything.
– homeowners get hit by the electricity price and if they are not debt-free, the interest on that.
– apartment owners face higher fees and interest rates (I guess few housing cooperatives are debt-free).
– everyone with vacation homes probably has skyrocketing electricity prices right now?
– the stock market has gone down.
– pensioners get no income increase to compensate for general inflation.
– everyone faces increased costs due to inflation.
– unemployment on top of that – probably K1 2023 because no one will quit before Christmas.
– a general stress after covid that is not reduced by all of the above which can probably turn into ill health, one should not underestimate the pressure of realizing you are doomed when the fixed mortgage expires in March 2023 together with the electricity contract and you get both daily interest and spot price on the electricity. The possibilities to compensate are none and there are zero bids after viewing.
09:13
Portugal’s prime minister has gone out in the media and warned of armageddon 2023 and in the UK they are eating dog food, can’t afford heating and want back into the EU (a slight exaggeration) so everything is relative, I’m not eating cat food (yet).
What is positive, for those who can and want, the large villa with pool is soon reasonably priced in Portugal, there will be a substantial correction. It is international buyers who have second homes or loans (often) and the Portuguese themselves have loans. Interest rates are soaring throughout the EU. The electricity price may not be the decisive factor, it is at 0.2 EUR/kWh, an average user is probably 5000 kWh/year and they don’t charge extortionate prices for the electricity grid and all the other extortion surcharges we have in Sweden. However, the larger houses are expensive to run with their pools and they must be heated partly in winter and are poorly insulated – you can’t avoid that or you get mold. Then property tax on that larger house with pool costs a good amount. And then how it looks in the home country where you have the loan if you are not a citizen and permanent resident.
I have thought that vacation homes in Sweden will go down in price. Larger houses in Sweden, those that are rarely sold, there have been many of and there will probably be more – that’s how we found ours when the previous owners thought the electricity was getting too expensive and moved… I think farms are being heavily promoted on Hemnet now. Everyone who can thus has the opportunity to grab that home which otherwise never comes on the market at a lower price than before. Ballroom and chandelier at 10 degrees indoor temperature is the new black, figuratively speaking because black mold comes quickly.
09:20
I agree with Andmar that this kind of thing won’t stick.
You probably shouldn’t underestimate the effect of all the bad things coming when a new government takes office, it’s quite easy to blame them even if you have paved the way yourself when you were in power.
After all, it’s 50/50 where half the country wants the current government and the other half does not. If the Tidö alliance delivered prosperity and more money for everyone, you could probably win over some, but now that won’t happen, we are heading straight into the wall.
09:21
Was that the curse?
In recent years, we have seen what happens when environmental considerations trump the welfare of citizens.
It’s going straight to hell – no one wants wind turbines nearby because of the noise and falling prices, but the environment comes before everything.
Nor did we want the enforcement authority after us because of the electricity bill, but we got that too.
The idea behind environmental assessments and all the authorities was to counteract corporate predatory capitalism – that is, to protect the citizens and the values of the country Sweden.
Now they are doing the opposite, lowering the country because the idea seems to be that if nothing is produced, then the country Sweden is untouched, and that is good.
11:40
VillaVovve, we can probably drum up a good business idea from this, right now I’m thinking of a mobile heat source where you can charge your phone and warm yourself.
Thinking that SE4 and power outages would provide great business, swish a thousand SEK and come into the warmth of the bus for a few hours?
If it’s two hours of rolling power outages, you drive between towns according to schedule and have what, 60,000 SEK/2 hours x 12 x 7 x a few months. Then you and I should build our own district heating plant just for us and never have a degree under 30.
11:50
I also think we are heading for a sudden stop.
Just as you write, consumption decreases overnight here and then companies cannot sell products and make a profit when the electricity bill is so high.
I know a bar at St Eriksplan that closed because of the electricity price and a roadside restaurant after Jönköping on the E4 had closed because of the electricity price.
High spenders are often also BLT in some form who have higher interest rates, higher fees and higher electricity prices.
11:59
China…
The 2008 crisis for the PIIGS was partly because they managed to copy these countries’ relatively simple manufacturing industry and sold cheaper.
Sweden has managed to hold out but we lose market shares every year, over 5 years it was 15% if I remember correctly and that was a few years ago. It was not less market but that the market shares went to Asia instead.
Now China has its own problems but something they don’t have problems with is their manufacturing industry and their electricity prices. They still want to get rid of their products.
If Europe has now crashed its electricity market, it also means crashing its manufacturing industry. Energy-intensive industry should logically take the biggest hit?
On the other side of the fence stands China and can offer an almost equivalent product at a lower price. When the difference was 15%, everyone bought the Swedish product, but now that it is twice as expensive, everyone buys the Chinese one – simplified yes, but that is probably how it looks?
Could there be a Chinese buying wave again?
This is among the most idiotic things I have seen in my short life. They have completely on their own given away their last competitive advantage and are handing over a walkover to a hungry Asia. I don’t know how the US is doing, but they have probably started robotizing to bring manufacturing back from Asia, and if they are also on the ball without high electricity prices, it could be difficult for the EU manufacturing industry to survive?
Once everyone has gotten used to new supply chains, it will not be possible to break in again if Sweden were to lower electricity prices in 5-10 years at best. The damage is already done, and one has to start building business contacts again from scratch.
Really smart of China to invest in Swedish wind power which has lowered the entire electricity system, maybe we shouldn’t be looking for Russian psyops but rather who has taken Chinese money?
12:04
We don’t just rely on wood burning, we rely on La Nina and weather-dependent luck.
If one is to follow the thread’s policy, then everyone who has chosen to live somewhere or owns a house has only themselves to blame if they can’t pay for it, including people in northern Sweden.
I have thought quite a bit about how things must be up north when -30 degrees arrives and prices have gone from 20 öre to 3 SEK in two years, there must be some anxiety in the cabins there as well, I think?
Surely there must be houses in the cities without stoves and a large wood supply?
12:11
Was it Bitbongen this link came from?
https://www.elbruk.se/timpriser-se3-stockholm
I’m a bit curious about what unspecified means?
Then I wonder why hydropower is so low?
Looking at all energy types, they are low; nuclear power is just 3 reactors and wind power depends on the wind.
But shouldn’t all energy types be able to run at 100%?
Otherwise, you can reduce production and raise the price.
I don’t know enough about this, but before the shutdown, the state acted as a regulatory function and kept the price at a level they considered reasonable?
Otherwise, they could have driven up today’s prices two years ago but didn’t.
So why can’t the same regulatory function exist today, with different productions running at half capacity, we export massively, and prices have increased tenfold.
– to me, who knows nothing, it looks quite strange, a before and after, and explanatory models that don’t answer the whole question.
Is there anyone who can geolocate the transmission cable to SE4 where it is at its lowest, asking for a friend.
13:13
Yes, my friend is testing his children’s snorkels and a wetsuit that is too small and can’t be fastened at the back in the bathtub and at the swimming pool for general amusement. He has to get down to the bottom and get enough bottom time on one breath, but due to small children and work stress, his lung capacity is about that of an 80-year-old.
The humanitarian effort for all suffering in SE3 was not entirely thought through, but I have suggested an FI insulated diving knife.
13:35
I would like to make a case for clay huts or peat dwellings.
On topic, we have studied wooden bridges for a while now where the load-bearing parts were metal but the frame was wood. Wood is unreliable as hell because rot can weaken the structure until failure occurs. There have been several different failures in the last 15 years of bridge collapses.
Wooden bridges are very bad was our conclusion, concrete works well.
I don’t know how it looks in larger houses than villas, but surely you get rot in villas, just that the loads are not too high.
If you have a 20-story building with a crawl space, you can get quite exciting wind loads and moments, and if you have rot in the metal-wood junction, it can probably go fast?
13:38
That was a bit wrong, load-bearing parts are also wood but fastenings and connections are metal, so it’s a mixed construction. You can’t build in only wood.
14:06
This feels a bit like an ill-considered cow release, you just open the doors and hope for the best and they crash straight through the open gate and rampage around in the flower beds.
When the state’s regulatory function worked for six nuclear reactors back then, there was no point in price manipulation.
Now you can manipulate prices as much as you want and then blame gas storage or Putin.
Are we exporting more today than we did before prices went up, for example?
09:09
In recent years, we have seen what happens when environmental considerations trump the welfare of citizens.
It’s going straight to hell – no one wants wind turbines nearby because of the noise and falling prices, but the environment comes before everything.
Nor did we want the enforcement authority after us because of the electricity bill, but we got that too.
The idea behind environmental assessments and all the authorities was to counteract corporate predatory capitalism – that is, to protect the citizens and the values of the country Sweden.
Now they are doing the opposite, lowering the country because the idea seems to be that if nothing is produced, then the country Sweden is untouched, and that is good.