10:23
Ukraine has officially reported +10,000 dead soldiers so 50,000 including wounded is probably reasonable.
The civilian population in Ukraine – there you have ethnic cleansing in still occupied areas, I think it’s hundreds of thousands now.
Then all the dead in LPR and DPR, for example their soldiers who are Ukrainian citizens…
Since civilians do not reduce capability, one should probably stick to military losses, right?
Or is it insensitive to think that way?
For the Russians – 100,000 dead and a few hundred thousand wounded in all forms. 10 times more dead thus.
We know that UA reports very conservatively.
10:56
Sitting and pondering the critical mass, Ukraine released about +8 maneuver brigades from Kherson and maybe keeps 3 for defense or transition?
4-5 have gone to Bakhmut so then all units from Kherson are in active front again (but they weren’t moved like that).
A bunch of maneuver brigades were freed when Izyum fell but, I don’t think all participate in the revolving door.
Then many territorial units today are considered infantry brigades, they have combat experience and are equipped and can be counted in the total.
I think they have the capacity to attack everywhere 😃
20:43
Can’t quite make sense of this video.
Russian position is to the right in the image.
They are circling in front of it?
I can understand the movement to avoid a direct artillery hit but the circles, is it because the Russians don’t have any close air defense?
Not usual doctrine for a mechanized unit failure but does anyone see the logic?
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1600921628594311168?s=20&t=HnAYmsd3iDxcksitjAvbIQ
21:10
Ukraine has formed a new mechanized brigade. In full war, they have thus been able to equip one more mechanized brigade beyond what they already have, so they are not that defeated.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1600576756469088278?s=20&t=HnAYmsd3iDxcksitjAvbIQ
10:16
Do you think Ukraine will take a page from the Soviet combat plans against the northern flank and attack on Christmas Day or whenever the Russians’ Christmas falls (China’s is January 20th this year, by the way)?
It can’t be very fun to be a Russian in a trench with rain during the day and subzero temperatures at night, alcohol consumption must be skyrocketing. It must be completely impossible to get a Russian soldier not to open the bottle at Christmas, it’s probably as much a tradition as “Donald Duck’s Christmas” is for us. At 05:00 on Christmas morning, all maneuver brigades will move eastward, attack targets A to F where F is the border with Russia (trying to dramatize a bit).
Erik14 posted that Ukraine has reinforced with 4-5 maneuver brigades at Bakhmut, which feels a bit above the level for defense. Maybe we have a third possible offensive in Donbass?
Northern Luhansk is ongoing and will continue until the area is liberated, it is very interesting that the Russians cannot hold at Kreminna. If you map it out, the Russians should be able to set up a pretty good defense in all the forest, the town, and with the river as flank protection. It is not clear to me yet whether the Siversky Donets has frozen over or not, but if they have sent in VDV to reinforce the NS line through Svatove, they should reasonably have reinforced Kreminna as well.
Kreminna is a fairly important place not to let go of, perhaps more important than Svatove. When I say Kreminna, I mean the town, Rubizne, and forest areas west and east of the road. There are old open-pit mines east of road P66 (if that’s what it’s called) where they have dominating terrain and height advantage.
As the blogger pointed out the other day, if Kreminna falls, the entire NS line through Svatove falls… You get in “behind” and can move towards Starobilsk and down towards Severodonetsk through settlements or forest and then over time continue north and east.
Down towards Azov is probably the most expected offensive in world history but it relies on sheer strength, cold, darkness, indirect fire, and SOF, I think. Now apparently Ukraine has pushed the Russians back from Vuhledar a bit, so where the strike will come is an open question.
The darkest Donbass between Donetsk – Bakhmut would also be smart, maybe the rebel nation is just as worn out this time of year after having gone first in every attack since the war started. Their bubbling optimism for Russia may have settled a bit after Chechen barrier troops and group violations in front of their own platoon. If they felt they were second-class citizens in Ukraine, they should feel seriously oppressed now that deserters have had their heads smashed with sledgehammers or been castrated. The entire unit should reasonably be considering an out after a year of fighting that is going increasingly badly.
A wildcard I’ve had far down the list is that LPR and DPR switch sides. Ukraine should and must not steamroll them like a steamroller, they should dangle EU membership and “a bright future is yours” in front of them. Eastern Ukraine is an industrial (was…) powerhouse that would benefit greatly from access to the EU’s internal market.
If you don’t intend to go in like Russia in the eastern provinces, you should reasonably have explored whether you can get a side change at the right time?
I don’t know how fortified the front is in the darkest Donbass, but one must guess that some sections are held by DPR and LPR units?
If they can lay down their arms or even better switch sides, you get a very difficult breakthrough for the Russians.
Today the entire DPR and LPR know exactly how things stand, they know that Russia cannot defend them and they also know that Russia treats them extremely badly. Soldiers are also fathers who have families and sons (I don’t know if the rebels have enlisted women but it should also include daughters and mothers so it doesn’t get too narrow-minded).
Do you think the HIMARS strikes on Russian billets in the darkest Donbass are an early sign?
It’s unfortunate that the unit maps are a mess now but the darkest Donbass has always been a rebel-strong defense?
The war is basically over if Ukraine, after the push down towards Azov, and at the same time as they liberate northern Luhansk, manage to persuade the Donbass rebels to switch sides so that the darkest Donbass, if it doesn’t fall, becomes possible to start liberating this winter.
Time to move the wildcard side change a couple of notches up the list.
Crimea will be completely evacuated by the Russians on their own when the operators of 2,000 suicide drones and the HIMARS crews have quarrels before the daily briefings about who will get to strike today’s target, the peninsula is impossible to defend just like Kherson was.