09:43
I have introduced a small weekly search on what our two friends Macron and Scholz have come up with during the past week.
We do not equate the country France and the country Germany with these two, but they do not act completely outside their administration and security service/military, so there is a consensus in the leadership on what signals should be sent.
Sometimes I wonder if Macron and Scholz have gotten stuck in the pro-Russian media loop, but it’s probably not that simple; there are power ambitions behind it and clearly an unwillingness for Russia to become obsolete. That is bad for me, Sweden, everyone here, and the EU, so I will continue to criticize them even though we should maintain a united front within the EU against imperialist Russia.
The difference between Sweden not donating CV90 and Archer and what these two are doing is big, as they try to influence opinion to abandon Ukraine, or at least not give them a quick win.
Sweden did not convince Ukraine, for example, that Putin would not attack.
I discovered that the Atlantic Council felt compelled to clarify things for Macron; they are quite a significant think tank/publication, right?
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/memo-to-macron-russia-doesnt-need-security-guarantees-but-ukraine-does/
Then we have Scholz’s disappointing news that they will not send Leo2 tanks alone/first. Could that be why Finland has started to suggest that they (maybe) will send a symbolic number of Leo2 tanks to Ukraine?
Now everyone understands that then Germany cannot be No. 2, No. 3, No. 4… until there are no more countries with Leo2 and Scholz avoids sending them as has been his intention from the start.
https://berlinspectator.com/amp/2022/12/18/scholz-rejects-ukraines-request-for-leopard-2-battle-tanks-but-promises-more-support-3/
Then of course we have the Russians’ latest very slick psyops after the World Cup ceasefire – a ceasefire over Christmas just like in WW1’s historical echoes, and they got quite a few religious leaders on board. On some level, I can understand that naive religious leaders bought into this and signed, but I think one should still think a little. Peace is good, but not if it leads to more suffering two months later. You don’t have to turn the other cheek when the first child has been tortured, raped, and murdered, I think.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/religion/2022/12/21/christmas-truce-ukraine-russia-war/
09:57
There are many videos of T90 arriving at the front now, T90 is roughly equivalent to Leo2 and later Abrams?
Politically, diplomatically, and technically, offensive weapons are basically unlocked.
-Politically because Russia is the aggressor and there is no common ground anymore; they want a part of Ukraine, period.
-Diplomatically because the Russians have escalated a couple of miles beyond just delivering MBTs now; it was already diplomatically acceptable after NS1-2, the torture centers, and all the raped and tortured-murdered small children.
-Technically because Russia is now deploying modern tanks against Ukraine. There are also rumors that a battalion of Armata is on the way.
We all heard during the speech in Congress how the applause got a bit lukewarm when Zelensky asked for advanced aircraft and MBTs.
Is there anyone in the thread, poster or not, who can explain why MBTs and IFVs are so taboo?
We have gone through quite a few explanatory models;
Everything about MBTs – not really needed, no workshops, maintenance chains, don’t want to release technology to the Russians.
Everything is disproved because Ukraine has more advanced systems that have worked for half a year and workshops are closer than Boden.
We cannot reduce our capability is another modern classic, but perimeter defense is probably the most important here?
Everyone close to the perimeter defense has already reduced their capability, but those furthest away raise it as their main argument – illogical.
Then the deal with China according to The Observer (I think…)
The fact remains that Ukraine itself and all serious assessors/analysts (not least all the geniuses in the thread) agree that if Ukraine gets advanced aircraft, MBTs, and IFVs from the top shelf, they will win the war relatively quickly. They have the world’s best infantry but are still low on high-quality offensive weapons.
Eastern armor has been delivered in large quantities, ATGMs likewise, and some scattered IFVs like Warrior.
The sad explanations are (which I don’t want to believe);
The EU is worried about a too strong Ukraine and would like both countries to be worn down.
The EU is playing both sides and wants to keep Russia.
They want to use Ukraine to drain Russia over time, a popular pro-Russian angle by the way.
Now about thirty HIMARS have done more damage than 300 MBTs would have, so I have an endless difficulty finding any logic in this.
The only thing I can really think of is that early in the war within EU-USA or EU-USA with China, they agreed not to give offensive weapons so as not to escalate, and that MBTs, IFVs, and advanced aircraft were then specified as offensive weapons but artillery was allowed because those who drew the lines were not competent enough?
But that it would still apply?
The US administration has gone out in the media and asked Germany to send Leo2s, for example.
It now seems that Finland will be the country to first deliver a symbolic number of Leo2s just to break the logjam. You can always trust Finland when the rest of the West and we ourselves are stingy.
If Finland can spare Leo2s, then we can spare CV90 and Archer, period.
There is a limit and that limit is more than reached if Finland, which is our protection against Russia, reduces its own capability to help Ukraine before we in Sweden do – then everyone should be ashamed, politicians as well as the defense leadership.
It is perfectly fine to always blame someone else, but it is also perfectly fine to do what is right, and wars are not won by everyone blaming everyone else.
10:03
Addition – doing nothing is what Putin wants, so everyone who does nothing and waits is actually doing Putin’s bidding even if they think what they are doing is responsible.
The symbolic value of Ukraine getting Leo2 or Abrams and F16 is enormous and directly aimed at Putin – he would be forced to reevaluate everything immediately because materially they would then be at a disadvantage.
We should not forget that Russia already today has the narrative that they are fighting against all of NATO, so MBTs and advanced aircraft would not significantly strengthen that narrative.
10:11
I belong to those who believe that after East and West Germany merged, there were enough pro-Russians in the administration who have been able to work in the opposite direction/on behalf of Russia.
To be able to make decisions in a democracy, a simple majority is needed at least, and decision-makers are influenceable.
Professional opinion matters.
There was some spy chief the other day who got caught for espionage for Russia, and Schröder, their former head of state, is something they are more than tired of. Does anyone believe these are the only two in the whole country of Germany who have had high salaries but worked for another state?
Why did the business sector shut down the country’s own electricity production and make itself dependent on Russian gas through an outrageously expensive transition, seems pretty unwise?
There are surely bribes involved in this as well, they haven’t even started playing follow the money with the environmental and peace movements.
13:34
Rikki, there is no “stupid green left,” but there is a greedy business sector. Then there were politicians who took the fight all the way to make themselves dependent on Russian gas.
I have had an interesting journey, when I was around 20 I believed in all conspiracy theories, they came in the streams one had then and it was somewhat the spirit of the time.
Then during and after university, I considered myself educated and a higher being who despised those who bought into this nonsense.
Now, a few years later, I have had it proven enough times because time has passed that a not insignificant number of conspiratorial theories have turned out to be completely true.
Don’t you dismiss it all a bit lightly when we have Schröder, an “intelligence chief” in Russian pay?
Once is no time, as they say, and we are past that 😀
East Germany was as late as 1989 a threat and the Stasi network was quite broad, did all that disappear overnight and did they take jobs at the local bakery?
13:50
The big difference as I have understood it is that when hit, the crew in an eastern tank dies but in a western one they survive, often the tank as well.
Tank crews are always hardware and one would survive significantly longer in western armor.
Then there is the signal value – now the supply of eastern armor to Ukraine is running out but there are a few thousand MBTs and double the number of serviceable IFVs in Europe. Opening that door would probably make Putin worried.
17:16
New line from Germany?
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1608447845451038722?s=46&t=5GD4TGcmqHQIE3W0gDbFLQ
21:12
A bit late but a good guess.
However, they do exist in Eastern countries (soon) and Russia when it was the Soviet Union had a pretty good organization for intelligence gathering which they have dedicated to industrial espionage in recent years but which should have been able to be used for the original purpose in between?
During the Cold War, the only ones who did not know Sweden’s military secrets were us; the Russians knew most of it.
21:41
What do we think about Blahodatne SE of Vuhledar?
According to Liveuamap it is in Ukrainian hands and then they are just north of the forest belt before Volnovakha.
If they take Volnovakha, they already have an offensive SE included.
But Deepstatemap is quite a bit away from that.
(I want to keep my five hundred)
21:47
Forgot this, Macron urges the EU to free itself from the USA and stop leaning on them.
One can interpret this in many different ways and considering that Europe has failed with defense in two world wars, Yugoslavia, and now Ukraine, I choose to interpret it negatively. Macron should be damn grateful that the USA continues to save Europe but he is not, not in the least.
09:28
It is very interesting that Russia, which has spent 15 years trying to overthrow the West, is now going through the scenario they envisioned for us. Some would call it Instant Karma, but how the hell can you sit in such a secluded echo chamber and come up with these battle plans based on pure daydreams?
There is a reality outside of this, and it is hitting Russia with full force now.
Medvedev’s “New Year’s speech” is probably very close to how Russia imagined this would play out.
The conclusion must be that the free West always wins, but in between there will be attempts that the free West must be prepared for.