11:41 – Johan No.1
I have Poland on the list to read up on because I don’t know them well enough.
However, they are one of the major benefactors for Ukraine and Ukraine-Poland also has some history, so Poland definitely manages to lift its gaze and focus on what’s important, unlike others who hide in closets and scream bloody murder whenever someone comes near, waving their arms and starting to shout about safe spaces and safe circles.
11:48 – Johan No.1
According to Ukraine, consensus has been reached regarding Leo but there is no agreement on how it should be communicated. Without knowing anything, maybe the Germans will send their 16 and other countries will pool the rest, hope is the last thing to abandon you.
The Russians have communicated their strong aversion to MBTs very clearly, everything else that came was boring but if MBTs were delivered they said – “there is no other option than full mobilization if Leo is sent” and “if Leo is sent, we are considering nuclear weapons”. This came before Ramstein and the weapon type Leopard was mentioned.
Then when the Russians thought Leo was a done deal, there were lame attempts to pretend they didn’t care but that was the denial phase before giving up.
Yesterday was probably expensive champagne and extra oil on the stripper pole in Putin’s residence to celebrate that he survives another month before he gets hanged at the gas station, every day he gets to party with the horse is a godsend.
The US has gone out in the media and clarified that every country can decide what they want to send, contrary to the Germans’ (Scholz) stance that everything must be consensus (pretty smart because anyone who has done a school project knows that it’s impossible and anyone with kids knows that impossible demands are gold when you want to avoid giving anything).
The USA also has no problem with third countries sending F-16s.
All countries had coordinated communication around the Ramstein meeting; one country chose to communicate that they had not reached an agreement because they thought that was the central message to convey externally. It was incredibly important to show a united front, more important than the Leopards. They could have remained completely silent, right?
Germany (Scholz) has not said a word about Italy sending German-purchased Panzerhaubitze 2000 to Ukraine, but Leo2, which the Russians absolutely do not want in Ukraine because then they would be out in a few months, there are contract issues and all sorts of explanations as to why they themselves, and absolutely no one else, are not allowed to send them. They are sending the Pz2000 and Gepard themselves, which are presumably built on the Leo chassis without the historical echoes becoming too strong—I think the tracks are exactly the same here?
Tracked howitzers with Maltese crosses, which look like old Ferdinand/Elefant moving across the Ukrainian plains, are absolutely not the same as the Leopard, which looks too modern to evoke historical associations, with Maltese crosses moving across the Ukrainian plains—that argument basically falls apart if you look at it soberly. Then I always think you can just repaint the vehicles in the UA scheme?
Recently, German media has tried to blacken Bulgaria for secretly supporting Ukraine with weapons (as if supporting Ukraine is a bad thing, but maybe it is in German media?), and then there was a news article about them being worried about Ukraine’s enormous losses in Bakhmut (which we don’t talk about because we support Ukraine).
Wanting to be neutral is one thing, but unfortunately that is not Germany; referring to proposals about territorial concessions early in the war was anything but neutral in the conflict. Did you hear Magda or Ulf suggest that? Or Sunak or Boris?
Germany has also sold enormous amounts of weapons to Russia since 2014, even after the arms embargo was introduced—this newfound willingness not to contribute to war only applies when we are helping Ukraine, not when Russia was being armed to be able to violate Ukraine.
I wonder why the recorded conversations between Scholz and Putin from before the war started until sometime in March are not out yet; they are probably explosive considering his positions early in the war. I’m surprised the desire to become chancellor isn’t greater than this; those transcripts are an open goal.
Then I took the time to read up on Scholz—who is this closet-dwelling giant? An old Marxist who was anti-NATO and anti-USA, a career politician who grew up with East-West. Now, one shouldn’t judge a person by their past but by what they actually do, but unfortunately it doesn’t look much better now either.
Then I have to say that Germany right now is giving the EU to the USA and UK, who aren’t even members; if they have had aspirations to take on a bigger role, or maintain their role, in the EU, they will probably see themselves overtaken quite soon. It takes a very long time to build a good reputation and it only takes one bad decision to crash it, and here we have a whole year of bad decisions culminating this past weekend. The German arms industry must be completely insane 😀
12:04 – Johan No.1
Dengamle and I have an ongoing dispute about whether Operation Badanka happened or not, but the coffee grounds during the spring were not so bad.
(if it comes up again I have lots of Twitter videos as proof that it did happen, just waiting for the right moment and am like a Chinese person who can bide my time for several years; the fact is that in between we have had such disputes ongoing for 50-60 years).
The winter offensive is underway in northern Luhansk and top-shelf armor has been delivered but then we have to wait for the rest.
But wouldn’t it be fun if Putin also got hung up at a gas station and the war is over by summer after the Azov push east of Vuhledar 😀
If the blog just lasts long enough, it’s on the list to go through it sometime because I wrote directly in the blog quite a while ago, also a bit curious about how actual outcomes compare to expected outcomes.
12:06 – Johan No.1
To be precise, they probably crossed the Dnieper but it was also up in the swamp.
12:10 – MatsExtrude
+100
Just have to agree!
Also want to add that the Netherlands want to donate F-16s and apparently have gotten the OK from the USA and that the next Ramstein meeting, which will be already in February, will address the issue of aircraft.
That puzzle piece will therefore also soon fall into place.
12:19 – Johan No.1
Dmitri has several positive stories today; this one is interesting because the units take losses from “frostbite” before they even reach the front. It’s tough to conduct a war of desecration and Winter War 2.0 is underway.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1617118089795063812?s=20&t=TCmaPmkC5RDKuIGjO8ooKQ
12:23 – Johan No.1
Kuwait Highway 2.0 was probably another one.
12:39 – Johan No.1
Yep, that’s probably the last one, or a bit of MBT is also needed but 80 T80Us is not bad either.
12:52 – MatsExtrude
Absolutely, the MBT question is not solved but you mentioned it in your analysis and I am convinced it’s only a matter of time. There has been more silence officially about F-16s but now that issue has also been raised and hopefully the next meeting will be enough to resolve it (no Scholz to interfere)!
13:28 – Johan No.1
Reality begs to differ, a couple of tweets below on Operation Badanka;
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1593195302210920448?s=20&t=JyY9G41fT9VWOq-1LJfPcA
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1593225128242040833?s=20&t=JyY9G41fT9VWOq-1LJfPcA
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1591887633587867651?s=20&t=JyY9G41fT9VWOq-1LJfPcA
https://twitter.com/_Free_Press/status/1590882103495110658?s=20&t=JyY9G41fT9VWOq-1LJfPcA
Also have to post this because at least I thought the giant anaconda was a myth…
https://twitter.com/FascinateFlix/status/1613595574137413632?s=20&t=JyY9G41fT9VWOq-1LJfPcA
Then we have this one too, the devil wrote his message in the housewife’s burnt toast and she broadcast it on national TV.
https://twitter.com/FascinateFlix/status/1601331765574242304?s=20&t=JyY9G41fT9VWOq-1LJfPcA
13:38 – Johan No.1
I don’t know how accurate this is but it’s from UA Forbes.
If the Russians can attack, which they do but it’s going epically badly, then I think UA can also attack?
https://twitter.com/FriaUkraina/status/1605485831984074752?s=20&t=JyY9G41fT9VWOq-1LJfPcA
13:47 – Johan No.1
The USA has really spoken out here, they have shaken off the gloves and are raging after a fleeing Scholz who runs into the closet screaming wildly.
Then the USA is not the USA without reason; they promise trade relations also to everyone who donates Leopards 😀
13:59 – Johan No.1
And the German arms industry is self-destructing with every country that donates Leo2 to Ukraine…
14:06 – Johan No.1
Now Poland has also clearly stated that they will donate Leo2 and hope to get others on board.
14:24 – Johan No.1
Wonder how long Germany can hold this position?
The arms industry must have collapsed like one man in a collective heart attack when they read that the USA is sending its equipment to everyone who gives German equipment to Ukraine. If it was half bad not to send Leo2 before, it has now become a crisis for them.
We wrote before Ramstein that it would be the last chance for Germany to get away with honor intact but no one could have guessed that the USA would come down this hard 😀
If we know Macron right, he will want to shine here pretty soon even if his meeting with Scholz does not change the position from the Germans. First the UK took the spotlight from him with Challenger and then the USA comes and steals the whole market.
I’m actually really upbeat here, the USA does not accept dragging this out, which signals very strong support for Ukraine. As upbeat as I am, Putin probably feels just as depressed and down, who thought he had won the battle over Leo2.
14:29 – Johan No.1
This is better than the Ramstein meeting and the retreat into the closet.
07:52 – Johan No.1
Ulfus, you sailed into the thread’s Van who has an excellent reputation for impartial reporting from Germany so you almost automatically got us to listen.
You also came in after a heated discussion in the thread about Germany where many, including me, tried to keep the nicest possible tone.
You started in the same way as Van, impartially and made an effort to write long posts which was much appreciated since we don’t know Germany the way you do.
But you have slipped over into outright support for Germany regardless of what they do and you look for explanatory models that simply do not match reality – as you can see under your post where you have gotten quite a few responses.
There is probably not a single Germany-hater in this thread but there are quite a few of us who don’t like friends who betray and Germany (Scholz) has handled this terribly, to be so heavily criticized in the open by the collective West – that doesn’t happen often.
Now they have finally been broken so I don’t think there will be much about Germany going forward and you won’t write here very often but I needed to get this off my chest since I have avoided writing under your posts for a couple of days.
The thread is a bit like a bloodhound, you can’t hide.
07:53 – Johan No.1
That is, the nicest possible tone when we discuss with each other, not in what we write…
11:25 – Johan No.1
Somewhat under the radar, there has been a geopolitical earthquake high on the Richter scale to Russia’s clear disadvantage.
First, China officially withdrew its support for Russia, around January 6 or thereabouts?
That was quite significant – “yes, but they don’t really mean it,” people said.
Then Turkey came out saying they support the 1991 borders (meaning that Donbass and Crimea belong to Ukraine).
Then Serbia asked the Russians to stop recruiting Serbs and then said the same thing – Crimea and Donbass belong to Ukraine.
After that, the arch-villain state Iran officially announced that they do not consider Crimea and Donbass to belong to Russia – it is Ukrainian territory.
And as the cherry on top, Hungary dismissed 100 generals and senior officers; it’s hard to see which side benefits from that right now, but more to come because this is a huge event. Imagine if that happened in Sweden, for example.
This is as significant as if the entire EU were to declare that they believe Ukraine should cede Crimea and Donbass (now it was only Germany and some other country that thought that…). A diplomatic and political atomic bomb that just exploded in Putin’s bedroom, he’s sitting in the middle of the bed with his hair standing on end, squinting blackly in his face with a death grip on the stripper pole.
These countries had before the war been on board with a new world order and were quite eager to take this to the next level, but now all have chosen to de-escalate before they too get dragged in and have to pay.
Ukraine was only the first step in a diabolical evil plan for world domination in true Darth Vader style, but it stopped immediately. Israel survives, Taiwan continues, all the countries down in the Balkans get to continue their lives in freedom, and the Portuguese no longer have to worry.
Now it’s over and Russia is sitting with the whole mess right in its lap – there is no point in a long drawn-out conflict anymore, none at all, because no other countries will do their part, everyone has abandoned Putin 😀
Of course, all this has played out since the turn of the year, initiated by Zelensky’s visit to the US which made the Russians go all in at Bakhmut – Siversk – a last all-in bet to get a better negotiating position that went completely to hell.
Around January 6, we pretty much guessed right in the thread about why the Russians threw in all the elite units in pointless potato field rushes?
Where is the Russians’ counter-move –
-Bakhmut holds and they won’t advance in Soledar.
-We have heard nothing about mobilization and last time there were hundreds of videos, it’s January 22 now.
-The missile strike was half as effective as planned.
When Leo2 was (everyone thought before the Germans chose to be really German) a done deal, the Russian reaction was – “we don’t care, they’re just a problem for Ukrainian mechanics, not for us” and “everyone delivering T72 to Ukraine is breaking our agreements, big consequences will follow”.
I guessed lukewarm, but it wasn’t even an attempt at counterfire, they have completely lost their enthusiasm here 👍
Aware that there is sentiment that the thread (me!) is too positive in a positive little bubble but I really can’t see anything but bright colors here no matter how hard I squint.
The Russian collapse is playing out in real time, now the West has united in its support (minus Germany, somewhat unexpectedly), Russia’s allies have abandoned them, sanctions are biting, and Ukraine just got all the weapons they needed to liberate their country (minus Germany’s Leo).
I am more than convinced that the circle outside Putin and his closest living dead are looking for a way out and that this way out has an expiry date.
Ukraine (and the West) will not care about negotiating once they have liberated their country by force and they have made it very clear to the Russian negotiators that there are some advantages to be gained if they leave now, but if they choose to be thrown out, the West will do Nuremberg all over again.
It’s time to start looking for cracks and splits in Russia because they are coming now.
If the Russians don’t throw in the towel immediately, I still don’t think Ukraine needs to liberate the entire country by force, they need one more solid territorial gain and then it’s over. Either the army leaves Ukraine on its own accord or it will be Swan Lake in black and white on Russian TV.
The Azov thrust was assumed to be decisive and now someone in the thread thought there were poor fortifications east of Vuhledar, which is exactly where I have invested all my credibility, the thrust southeast from Vuhledar instead of Tokmak – Melitopol 😀
In Belarus, the Russian units are probably there for internal purposes rather than to attack Ukraine, the question is whether they will even get a strong trolling effect out of this as has been anticipated? Since pretty much everyone has backed away from Putin now, Lukashenko is naturally on the fence again, but he can do nothing when there are 25,000 Russian soldiers in the country and his own army is reportedly 15,000 (according to insiders).
At the same time, the winter offensive is ongoing in northern Luhansk, now it’s hush-hush and the two VDV battalions sent there have failed because according to Gregg they have taken more of the city of Kreminna than just the western outskirts.
There is no reason to question Gregg, he has high credibility as a source.