2023-02-08 -

08:38

Do we know who messed up in Vuhledar the other day?

It was BMP, so not VDV. The rumor was that VDV would take over but the 8 new BTGs that were sent up probably came from one of the “armies” behind the southern front, 58th still?

09:56

I know that Defmon got annoyed at ChuckPfarrer but does Chuck have any support for his claims?

https://twitter.com/chuckpfarrer/status/1623097040908566528?s=46&t=evHUQdOfwbNQZnxJ2a-NBw

11:49

Yesterday we saw on Rybar that Ukraine is setting up a total of 30 brigades, not 14 as we had been told before that. It was complete with unit insignias and garrison locations so I choose to go with that.

According to Ukrainian Forbes, the numbers were about 1:1 already.

In January the Russians suffered 50,000 losses and February looks to be starting just as badly.

If Ukraine adds 30 brigades to the previous numbers, it is indisputable that they now have the numbers on their side. These are army brigades that have functioning command chains etc., not freelancers doing their own thing.

The fact is that some countries in Europe are probably increasing their defense budgets, maybe not because of Russia but so that Ukraine could roll over them in a week.

Have you seen that the first Leo2s have started to be delivered, it was a bit debatable whether the Germans’ were a model or fully operational?
A few CV90s and Bradleys should not be far behind.

I also get the distinct feeling that HIMARS and air/army aviation have really stepped up, 9 targets the other day.

Now attempt no. 2 in Vuhledar should be in full swing here and attempt number two at the southern front as well. One day of catastrophic attack was too little. If it stays quiet it is a shift.

In Bakhmut and Soledar, the Russian side expects Ukrainian local counterattacks soon.

Up in northern Luhansk it is chaotic and anything can still happen, 125,000 men is a high number no matter how you look at it.

Chuck Pfarrer (whom Defmon totally criticizes) claims that UA is fighting in the city of Kreminna. He is alone in that and therefore no conclusions should be drawn from it.

I wonder if Ukraine will soon deploy a mech battalion with CV90/Bradley and a Leo2 company to test drive in some local counteroffensive. The key is that they don’t drive everything into a minefield but manage a nice show.

Then FT wrote that UA uses 5,000-6,000 shells per month and that corresponds to a small country’s annual production. I interpret that ammunition will not be an acute shortage for UA going forward.

A bit shorter…