10:34 – Johan No.1
Please open the comment if you have time LW, it went straight into the filter 😀
10:41 – Johan No.1
Do you think it is the 336th naval infantry that is in Vuhledar now and next in line to be wiped out?
Then we know that it is the airmobile that gets the best Western weapons so they will probably be the armored fist leading the way, they are Ukraine’s elite units and a good choice. They are thus not paratroopers but mechanized with quite a lot of extra kick. Armored infantry with Redbull wings.
Is this the disaster Kriegsforscher talked about that has completely flown under my radar?
https://twitter.com/FriaUkraina/status/1624075549122363392?s=20&t=U08mDoUVQnLo8J-DAm1wnQ
A detail with Mig29, remaining Excalibur T72 and P-91 is that they can already be operated by UA so the materiel is supplied directly.
We know they trained on F-16 already last spring and if I may guess the Poles have probably been secretly training UA on Bradley and Leo2. I would not be surprised at all if the first battalion shows up soon on the battlefield for beta tests and morale boosting.
For CV-90, Challenger and Tornado it is probably training that applies, same for Stryker and Warrior and the French “light tank”.
It is quite clear that UA is saving some surprises for their offensive. We have not had any 2500 suicide drones for example that we know they have received.
Then they have received a couple of other drone types that no one has seen. And then they have developed their own.
And the glide bombs are just one delivery away.
Reasonably, they will unleash everything in a wild tornado so the Russian command is completely paralyzed and then we have passed the beginning of the end by a few miles.
I may have overestimated the DPR and LPR units a bit, thought 40,000 – 50,000 mostly due to the number of brigades they have but Munz the military blogger considers them to be in terribly bad shape now. We knew previously that the 25,000 they had at the start of the war are all dead or wounded but that the numbers were low is great news that really lifts spirits.
Every day you want this war to end and right now it looks really bright.
I am aware that the posts are messy now, a bit like my desk, closet, thoughts and life 😀
It is really just a long series of notes that I try to refine into something that can be posted without having to hide in the finance threads.
Regarding Russian psyops, it is not so bad when pro-Russian debaters enter the thread because you understand how the psyops are structured –
-the nuclear threat is real, be afraid, preferably passive.
-UA can never win in the long run, they might as well give up land now.
-EU will suffer until UA agrees to peace, how long do you want to suffer.
-Yes, things are going badly for RU but then automatically things go badly for UA too, right.
-Look here, there is corruption, violence and unpleasant events in UA, those you support are not exactly spotless.
One of the most blatant examples of Russian psyops now is that they reuse the argument from HIMARS, LEO2 and 150km weapons before deliveries of fighter jets – “this will have ENORMOUS consequences for you in the UK if your government gives fighter jets to UA, just so you know (feel free to protest)”.
The Russians have gotten away with a completely cold war and still being a colonial power with this strategy so I can understand that they are still trying but the cards have actually been seen through by Ukraine for quite some time.
Also quite funny that the blog is on the list of media to target, bigboy pants.
Last spring there was a doomsday mood and especially the argument that “yes things are going badly for RU but then it also goes badly for UA” lived on for a long time even in this thread before operation badanka well stamped it out?
Opinion-sensitive politicians in the West have had difficulty seeing the truth because of all the pro-Russian propaganda and because of that the war has been greatly prolonged with increased suffering for the Ukrainian children as a result.
Now this might be a bit OT but I think an important piece to tackle is the subversive activities of rogue states in our democracies but without going too far, everything according to applicable law – a tightrope to balance on absolutely but why let them get away with this, real children are dying because we keep falling for it.
One way would actually be to investigate who has received money from the Russian/Chinese/MENA side in one way or another and then let them parade in the media regardless of who they are, investigative journalism? Corruption is illegal and grounds for dismissal so then they become unemployed, unemployable and generally hated which is quite a suitable (soft) punishment.
Something that is done against lifestyle criminals is that the tax agency, social services and enforcement authority pool together and do their jobs according to applicable Swedish law. If you have a weapon in the closet and drugs in the bathroom you are hardly suitable as a parent according to applicable Swedish law and then there are coercive measures to take?
If you have debts with the enforcement authority the pile of cash and the expensive car are confiscated.
Quite a lot of the conflicts and bad decisions in our democracies unfortunately come from this subversive activity but a tightrope to balance as I said…
Most recently newspapers have several letters pushing for negotiations with all the arguments above. I have considered the media to be quite okay regarding the Ukraine war and I understand that this has to do with “all sides shall be illuminated”. But it is Russian psyops when the Russians want to get their psyops out in the media and the media still listens to people, and the war has been going on for a whole year.
The latest to come is “Russophobia”, we are too harsh on the Russians/Russia. Tell that to the tortured and murdered and raped five-year-olds in Ukraine. That someone in frustration calls Russian soldiers Orcs and other things feels quite humane in the context I think?
The lucky thing is that the Russians themselves are a marvel of incompetence and that Ukraine has now gotten what they need for a devastating win – we have reached the beginning of the end of this war now.
Erik14 wrote the other night that the Russians have peaked now and that is probably true, it will also go downhill fast.
Also want to highlight that Russian artillery losses are skyrocketing and that supplies (guessing ammunition) are exploding everywhere right now.
If one didn’t know better, and since the Russians are supposed to attack with 500,000 men any time now, one could almost suspect that Ukraine is pre-fighting ahead of its own upcoming offensive here.
12:31 – Johan No.1
Here you have another one, lots of videos with any chosen unit on the march. That really livens things up.
https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1624464928097574912?s=20&t=rg8DVYTXkljgDKjNPywFXQ
12:32 – Johan No.1
Have had this one up, heroes is just the first name.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1624649752657936384?s=20&t=rg8DVYTXkljgDKjNPywFXQ
12:34 – Johan No.1
Slightly OT but have you seen this one, gives good chills.
https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1624443069704638467?s=20&t=rg8DVYTXkljgDKjNPywFXQ
12:35 – Johan No.1
This one has probably been up but this trench just ran out of ammunition.
https://twitter.com/Seveerity/status/1624376075169021953?s=20&t=rg8DVYTXkljgDKjNPywFXQ
12:37 – Johan No.1
Speaking of not falling back into Russophobia, went so-so.
https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1624482064983621632?s=20&t=rg8DVYTXkljgDKjNPywFXQ
12:38 – Johan No.1
I have a Ukraine list saved but I don’t think relevant tweets come up.
However, it is completely flooded with all of Dmitri’s tweets from the past month.
Don’t understand the technology behind it, thought that if you didn’t want to follow a bunch it was fine to create a list but a lot doesn’t show up in the feed.
12:42 – Johan No.1
Don’t know who Chris-o-Wiki is but this is exactly my interpretation too.
If UA then comes and ruins the whole party it can go pretty fast.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1624417345669148672?s=20&t=rg8DVYTXkljgDKjNPywFXQ
12:59 – Johan No.1
Lower the volume on your headphones because it bangs hard.
https://twitter.com/SarahAshtonLV/status/1624402292341411843?s=20&t=UZYPlWFcU4JnNuyul3B9mQ
13:01 – Johan No.1
Is it now confirmed that they also set up the other 8 brigades besides the 6 army brigades?
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1621923891852738561?s=20&t=TdnqSJAeR3d-kGTXJWfdMA
13:16 – Johan No.1
He has collaborated with the blue car and other organizations and posted enough so we probably don’t need to suspect he is a new Canadian-Ukrainian, right?
He sits with a couple of guys and trawls open sources which he compiles and must not cross any lines or post too much. Also, sometimes he gets information he is supposed to share on his channels.
They are probably a list of social media guys/girls with good reach used to convey narratives against the West?
He is absolutely genuine, if he is not he has fooled me badly at least. Then he is probably wrong like everyone else but it’s a bit like Girkin with him, much has proven true over time.
For example northern Luhansk – he was early that they emptied the training camps which ISW now confirms.
He was early with 100,000 men to northern Luhansk and now we know they have replenished heavily there for an offensive.
In fact, he probably has more right than those who claim, and there are many, that there are half a million more who shall attack between February 24 and sometime in March.
13:18 – Johan No.1
I try to evaluate all sources in the way they deserve and then find the same puzzle piece with others, who have not gotten it from the same source, and in that way sift out a truth.
Defmon thought Bakhmut would fall a few days ago and now he has changed his mind for example. Defmon has a large reach and something like that could be misunderstood by Ukraine, for example.
No one is perfect but maybe I should start following the discussion with Gregg a bit better.
13:34 – Johan No.1
I’m trying to reason about Gregg’s information regarding Krasna Hora,
His Cossack also says that Bakhmut holds and this is at a time when everyone is screaming that Bakhmut will fall.
Defmon changed his mind a few days ago and today, February 12, Bakhmut is still UA.
NOEL stated that Krasna Hora fell a few days ago which according to Deepstatmap is true and next is Paraskokiivka.
That RU cuts the road is not important, nor the road further south, there is a smaller road towards V between these two.
Then we can assume there are huge supplies in Bakhmut so they can withstand months of siege, if they want.
There are rumors that they have a large command center under the city, right or wrong.
And that reserves have been brought forward for a local counteroffensive. It’s about time if they don’t want to abandon the city, which they might want to.
We park Gregg for a week and then we’ll see if Bakhmut has been emptied or if they have done a counteroffensive, after all they have a large supply route from Pryvillia to lean on if they want to push the Russians away. And it’s downhill towards Krasna Hora.
What Gregg is really saying is that they have run out of gas, right?
What Defmon said (I think?) was that Bakhmut was in a bad position?
Gregg is also in the army and we know he sometimes has information to communicate. Defmon et.al. report the truth as far as they can.
13:51 – Johan No.1
Sitting and looking at what Defmon writes, why don’t they include road 00506 in their discussion?
You can get straight west to Dohdanivka?
Emil has that road as a “critical area”
https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1624461265090359296?s=20&t=H-Jhhlc-7WDO3ynJhSrp7Q
But they should also reasonably include all supplies in the city?
Either you abandon Bakhmut and then you do it for tactical reasons that don’t affect the war, or you do a local counteroffensive or let them go on defense to act as a decoy so they can come up with something else fun.
Right now the Russians are far from the “critical area.”
And the wedge straight west from Krasna Hora looks like an open target to push on.
17:32 – MatsExtrude
Now just waiting for Ukraine’s “big bang”!
17:35 – Johan No.1
Has this one been up yet, they have it warm and cozy and the Russians are freezing.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1624793831605411847?s=20&t=Qeao-2t4rLTfO6JzHr0VTQ
18:19 – MatsExtrude
+1 Graphically really nice photo of the gun. Not even Ridley Scott could have done it better.
18:20 – MatsExtrude
What a blast!
18:24 – MatsExtrude
Strange, I have no such problems with my Ukraine list. Sometimes, if those I have on the list in turn retweet others’ tweets, some irrelevant ones can of course slip in.
19:04 – MatsExtrude
As I have written sometime before (or maybe it was on Twitter). When the war is over they can arrange adventure trips including overnight stays in their trenches, with field-cooked food included.
10:33 – Johan No.1
I’m leaning quite heavily towards Gregg here, but it seems to have stalled around Kreminna. Not so hard to understand with those forests…
If you remember the reasoning, it’s an advantage for RU when they advance but an advantage for UA when the Russians become passive. Then the hunter’s hunter fight takes over and we get Suomussalmi 2.0 up in northern Luhansk. It’s quite important for the VDV to have extra batteries for their image intensifiers now that it’s cold. And for the vehicles not to idle for heat so they don’t run out of fuel.
There have been several local UA counteroffensives now, one around Bilohorivka, at Vuhledar and in Bakhmut and Soledar. Not exactly an army in flight, right.
Now I’ve seen several videos of UA buildup. If you remember at Kherson, there were videos of rolling armor before they cut to operation duckling. Video – offensive – dead Russian, something like that happened.
However, maybe those videos were before the local counteroffensives that have now played out, I don’t know.
It would be excellent if they can sweep the Russians away if they manage it, but right now it is very chaotic.
Partly, all the damage they inflict on the Russians in the trenches this winter, and all the terrain they can take, is something that makes it easier later in the spring. Especially since (the relative) elite units are at the front and not in the rear and are easy to get at.
It’s chaos over at the Russian team and absolutely easier to achieve something painful than if they had been allowed to build defenses until mid-May.
Then a little hot contender – I now think it only takes one huge blow more (down from two to one) and a Russian tactical retreat (chaos!) from a larger front section, like northern Luhansk or the southern front, to sow real seeds of doubt among the Russians. That in turn might force negotiations about safe passage out of Ukraine, (see below).
Why then?
Well, this much-talked-about offensive is naturally promised in Russia to everyone who matters to either become the one who turned the war or who gives Russia the best possible negotiating position in upcoming talks.
If Ukraine suddenly goes on the offensive, in the middle of their own shining, gleaming victory march towards glory and Greater Russia, and forces a humiliating chaotic retreat which has now become somewhat their signature after a year, then there can absolutely be a real crisis of confidence at all possible levels here.
Hard to see the army accepting going completely to zero, for example, or all the oligarchs in Russia accepting that Ukraine retakes all the land entirely on their own which is their only bargaining chip left. And that they and their families then become penniless dacha-dwellers with only medium mash tanks for the rest of the family’s miserable history – then it’s better to negotiate before they’ve lost the whole pile of chips – Putin can think what he wants, he’s only one man and shouldn’t be allowed to crash my entire family tree.
Right now the Russians have thrown in and lost +40% or more of their last usable units. Bakhmut, Soledar, southern front, Vuhledar, Kreminna and Bilohorivka all stand firm and they are not advancing anywhere. There should be great concern in the Russian command now and they are probably googling how to seek asylum in China or something?
The fact is that they get stuck in the minefields almost before they get to near-PV distance and absolutely before they enter any defense systems, and we’re talking about the frontline defense systems of at least three lines here, with waiting tanks in one of the two rear ones.
Northern Luhansk is chaotic but it seems to hold, it’s definitely too early and the offensive has not played out, and if it had, it would be nothing less than a sensation because they absolutely have not broken through 125,000 men – then they already refuse war up there.
However, it looks like continued offensives further north even if it has slowed down around Kreminna.
The Russian national team in unchallenged incompetence has really taken off here in this offensive which right now looks absolutely terrible.
Then it flew by that Scholz has taken the lead in Leo2 – credit where credit is due applies, go team Scholz, the Ålen is no more (until he’s back and manages to outmaneuver the PR staff with something from the heart as usual) 👍
This is what Tataregami writes about Vuhledar,
(155th naval infantry)…3/4 but many other brigades as well: the 40th naval infantry brigade, 36th, 37th, and 72nd (not to confuse with Ukrainian) motor rifle brigades, separate units ”Kaskad” and ”Vostok”, PMC ”Patriot”, BARS reserves, as well as separate units from 136th and 14th brigades.
That was no reconnaissance, we can be sure of that, and we have 6-7 brigades wiped out in just Vuhledar – as relaxing background music to read.
I’m quite sure a Russian narrative will very soon be that all this was just reconnaissance but that they want to save Ukrainian children’s lives. Tobruk anyone 😀
To be very clear – this is the Russians’ last all-in and it’s going catastrophically. The milbloggers are furious about Vuhledar and the command is running out of plans – now they’re running plan F and if it doesn’t work, it’s over.
Since this is Russia, it will go straight into the wall and they continue sending units forward in moderate amounts so they get shot away a couple of kilometers before the main attack target A on the map all through February.
But not for much longer offensive operations will end, either because they run out of gas or because the army suddenly finds its integrity and does the only right thing.
Then step two in the three-step rocket – UA unleashes everything they have over the defense (will they then die in their trench or retreat?).
When combined arms warfare hits them like a ton of bricks they already know they have nothing left to resist with – there are no replans and they are all that’s left, and that life is a marathon forced march away to the border.
This is what it looks like in the real world while the psyops make the rounds with the “500,000 man offensive” and that Ukraine is on the brink of collapse so we might as well abandon them.
I want to return to something we discussed on January 6 – this offensive was forced because the Russians no longer feel they have time on their side. I think it’s positioning ahead of negotiations. How do you think that positioning has gone…
The Ukrainian negotiators will have a hard time keeping a straight face and running some Vuhledar-death on the big screen when the Russians say they offer to stop attacking if they just get to keep Donbass at the first meeting.
Then after a couple of meetings when Ukraine has taken a lot more square miles of land, the agreement will finally be – leave all of Ukraine, hand over Putin et al., and the rest get their money back and immunity from prosecution, and that this list of war criminals from the army shall be sent to The Hague on Monday, thank you.
We are probably not far from a first round of negotiations here, many are sweating and having trouble sleeping now.
The question I am starting to ask myself is how much Putin has a say – I have no idea but things have not gone well since January 6 and his position should be seriously undermined now. He is a bit like Ozymandias except that nothing turns to gold in his kingdom.
GeneralSVR looks to me like a typical FSB psyops but there is a reason for that.