09:51 – Johan No.1
Sorry, I got it a bit mixed up, the unthreatened road goes northwest on the map and is the smaller road that goes into Khoromove, 00506.
It then turns straight west but a smaller road cuts up towards Bohdanivka.
That is the road I was thinking of.
10:22 – MatsExtrude
+1
Found a terrain map where it is a bit easier to see the elevations. I wish it existed as a layer in DeepStateMAP.
Looks a bit like the one Reporting from Ukraine uses.
https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-wmv51/Ukraine/?center=48.62837%2C37.98523&zoom=11&base=4
11:20 – Johan No.1
Ukraine has practiced a tight poker (TM to someone in the thread) clearing of fortification systems.
– they knock out fixed armor in defense.
– they drop wing grenades on the head of Russians in a trench and lure them into the reinforced fortification where they put a 155mm shell.
– when the tank is gone, they immediately fire with a tank beyond near-PV distance.
– then it’s movement so the Russian artillery doesn’t get a hit.
– when the Russians in the fortification system go up into firing position and expose themselves, they get a tungsten rain and air bursts over them – we saw some new type that was insanely effective a month ago.
Yes, you can get through Russians in defense too.
– previously they have not defended in depth but that may have changed.
– mines are the biggest threat, they have gotten some type of mine-clearing equipment that can clear streets quickly.
No, they don’t drive straight into minefields like the Russians 🙂
11:21 – Johan No.1
The charm of a whole defensive line is that once you break through it in one place, the entire line becomes obsolete afterwards.
11:23 – Johan No.1
Someone posted that earlier but I forgot about it, thanks a lot 👍😀
15:20 – MatsExtrude
Then I was second with it too! 🙂
09:13 – Johan No.1
As a keyboard warrior who will soon be able to shop legally at the state liquor store, I obviously don’t have any direct insight, but in the discussion about Gregg yesterday I became interested in Bakhmut and started looking at the maps. So far, my interest has been up in northern Luhansk and I have mostly noted that the city does not fall despite hundreds of predictions of the impending apocalypse for six months.
According to previous information, it is the dominant terrain that is central; the guy with the masculine dialect has taught us this in the most pedagogically possible ways that have been hard not to absorb.
For the exercise, we use Defmon’s maps; his unit map is somewhat of a lifeline when the other one died out, and he tries to report as accurately as he can and doesn’t speculate much, that’s my impression of him.
The Russian advance SW of Ivanivske has stopped before a forest area with heights, it seems to me?
The settlement Ivanivske offers no advantages as I see it and can basically be abandoned without the situation tipping over.
In Bakhmut, it will be below freezing for the next two weeks, so these damn supply roads are not central. There is also one road left straight W that is still open. I guess they drive in at night with night vision?
Paraskoviivka is not strategic either, and the same applies to Yahidne.
Berkivka, however, would be good not to abandon.
The Russians’ offensive straight W from Krasna Hora is heading towards dominant terrain and on its flank we have a supply road to the NE for UA. Good terrain for a local counteroffensive and it slopes down towards Krasna Hora.
A last defensive line inside Bakhmut is probably the railway and then a defense on the western flank (western part of the city) running NW.
For the Russians to try to encircle W of Bakhmut, they must go in between dominant terrain NW and NE of Ivanivske. A small unpleasant bottleneck. The alternative is to storm straight up the hills in one long “On Wisconsin” that ends in total death.
The extent of Wagner on the “other side of the city” which has soon reached N of Bakhmut looks life-threatening but not for Ukraine, rather for the Russian team; the advance is flanked by dominant terrain all the way and is wide open for a local counteroffensive straight into the side – a serious broadside will probably tip it over quite quickly.
We know that UA pushed in new reserves about a week ago, why send in more if they intend to retreat within a week?
There is a Twitter rumor that there is an underground communications center – bunker system in Bakhmut, right or wrong. That should automatically mean protected supplies for quite a long time, if true…
Were there salt mines there too?`
Otherwise, I guess there are basements in Bakhmut as well and well-developed fortifications?
Famous last words but I think it looks like good BTG grills terrain and that Ukraine can get more time out of the city.
If the Russians do some kind of million-man assault straight into the city, it will probably be completely impossible, but do they really have that capacity? According to Defmon’s maps, it’s a couple of VDV regiments and Wagner attacking and Wagner is supposedly almost finished and rotating after +80% losses?
We also have no information about a buildup of new brigades towards Bakhmut; they seem to be focusing on northern Luhansk and Vuhledar/southern front right now.
There is plenty of time and space to nest here, and if I were UA I would start pulling the rear out of the city and only keep fighting units. Then I would prepare a counteroffensive on the flanks but always be ready to nest depending on how the situation develops.
If they decide to hold the city, they only need to do it for one more month, then the weather takes care of the defense during the mud season when the Russians crawl around waist-deep in mud in the fields or float around in water-filled pits everywhere. You remember what it looked like before it froze?
They have their artillery in the settlement Kanal, behind the dominant terrain E of Orikhovo Vasylivka, and behind Khromove – easy to supply and easy to pull out?
I think it would be tactically unwise to give up Bakhmut just before the thaw comes that makes the Russians’ supply completely impossible.
But as I said, now that I have seriously jumped into the discussion, they will probably retreat tomorrow and leave the city of Bakhmut, and I as staff have to wait a few more years before the doors of the store open 😀
If they were to leave the city of Bakhmut, there is no shortage of dominant terrain W of the city, so there won’t be much of a breakthrough – not even a tactical victory for the Russians if Bakhmut is abandoned. That’s probably the message I have tried to communicate before when I haven’t studied in detail.
The overall battle plan, I think, seems to be to press towards Bakhmut and Soledar to force UA to reinforce so they can achieve successes in the offensive in northern Luhansk and the southern front. Northern Luhansk is to reach the Oskil river and secure the flank reasonably.
The southern front is a bit of a question mark right now because nothing is happening there at all. Also, they have a southern front south of the southern front called Dnepr and there they have left the field wide open.
Do you also remember that the city of Siversk was supposed to be threatened from the south after Soledar fell? A slow snail would have gotten there faster than Wagner does there – it’s infinitely slow.
Then they tried to push from Bilohorivka but there was a local counterattack a few days ago and there are no beginners defending there either directly.
I have a very hard time seeing an overall threat in this area and UA has not yet deployed its offensive reserve.
At the southern front and Vuhledar, there is a fairly significant thinning of the Russian offensive reserve now and that absolutely opens up for the Azov thrust going forward. If it’s not SE of Vuhledar but near Melitopol instead, I’ll pretend nothing happened and claim it has always been the first choice.
UA is thus setting up 14 new brigades and equipping its best maneuver brigades with good equipment.
27,000 applied to the 8 NG brigades, which is if not fully booked immediately then a pretty big rush when we talk about those who will go first in the counteroffensive.
A Ukrainian brigade is numerically like 2-2.5 Russians since Russians have 2, maximum 3 battalions with low numbers, and low on armor. In capability, it’s not even comparable, I think we have seen videos of that now.
IF they were to deploy them at the southern front, they would have the numbers on their side for offensive operations. That’s how it looks in hard numbers, hard to deny.
Now I return to northern Luhansk, which is the area I think looks most chaotic; if the RY goes on the offensive, they can achieve some local success and if they stall, we have Suomosalmi 2.0 coming in like a rocket sweeping into the afterburner.
Since the Russians have dedicated so many units up there, a collapse would do quite a lot of damage to them, both wounded self-esteem but absolutely make them very short on a bit of everything in the whole war.
Do you remember the discussion that straight west of Enerhodar there is good terrain to land infantry that can defend a small BTG grilling operation?
It feels very Ukrainian to suddenly cross the Dnieper here and make a huge media event out of it.
It is completely on the other side of all the action and would threaten the southern front in the back so the Russians would have to immediately start rotating units that can be shot away with air and artillery.
They have also tricked all the Russians down to Kinburn Spit and Khakovka.
At Soledar and Bakhmut, if not a stalemate, then at least no brigades are moving across the fields except DPR who line up and run towards the fortifications in the best Tannenberg style, and at the southern front it has been strangely quiet for a little too long now.
Because of that, I actually have to ask one thing here – what is the likelihood that we will see an offensive with “500,000” men, for or against?
I think it is already tapering off before it has even started if I am to be completely honest, and it is a large number they have gathered up in northern Luhansk, that must be admitted.
They should also have ordered full throttle a long time ago at the southern front but after the first 8 BTGs they threw in and mediocre terrain gains, it has been completely silent I think?
I was a bit skeptical about the “500,000 men attack” but I must admit that I thought there would be increased intensity by the turn of the month but I don’t even think I see that here?
At Vuhledar, they will soon run out of offensive units if it was DPR who ran across the potato fields and then they have to bring up new ones.
I am a bit worried that we won’t get 150,000 dead before the anniversary!
We will see if the Russian mobilization gets going, today is February 13 and nothing yet.
Another thought, if it were to get going, it signals something, right? Otherwise, they wouldn’t need to mobilize…