11:10 – Johan No.1
There was a viewer question yesterday about whether the CV90 and Archer will make a difference and if UA can handle them in the best way.
From what we’ve seen so far, they never use the weapon systems as intended – they always operate them better.
It’s also an exciting situation on the ground that I haven’t quite managed to analyze – take that tank from Azov that drove back and forth in front of a fortification system and set explosives on the anti-tank mines.
They exposed themselves a lot all the time but moved to avoid being hit by indirect fire, I think?
Then the drones must have seen the group coming in and that they had no close infantry support?
They have real-time situational awareness, I think?
Then you had the trench god who took out a Russian on film. Apparently, it was a Spetsnaz or VDV with extra everything. The guy walked upright up to the fortification, alone, and was shot. Erik14 had it analyzed yesterday as usual and DeadDistrict has a close-up where you see lots of attributes that only their (relative) elite possess.
The trench god took fire and movement to a whole new level even if it might have been edited.
And then they’ve revived the old civil war classic – the loader. With this fire-movement and loader, a defender can have the same effect as a whole group, which I find interesting.
Apparently, the defender was from a “regular” mechanized brigade and not some elite unit (Erik14 again).
There is an incredible amount in this war that does not follow the soldier’s little green book, but it is exclusively improvements.
Archer will probably be used together with artillery radar, pretty sure I’ve seen Arthur mentioned somewhere or have I dreamed?
If not, Archer is compatible with other delivered artillery radars.
This system will probably be used close to the front in counterbattery fire and against high-value targets and will certainly make a big difference – 12 units is a high number and near Kherson when 6 Cesars and some Panzerhaubitze arrived, it ticked up immediately.
777 has had some difficulty moving quickly enough and has taken losses, not sure how many.
CV90 is quite unique and probably the deadliest they will have in their arsenal in the IFV park – they will be an excellent complement to take fortification systems.
Now we must remember that UA will have a real-time snapshot when they advance and there should then be no tanks in the attack objective.
There may be close infantry support and perhaps ground-based missiles but those can also be taken out with indirect fire in real time.
Then CV90 has 40mm explosive rounds and a grenade for airburst over the target, explosives are of course delivered together with the arrow but other interesting grenades we do not know.
During the advance, they press explosives into the target which forces the defense to keep their heads down.
They have space for 8, Ukrainian armored infantry squads are 6 I think? Also discovered that CV90 has changed the rear compartment to 7 recently.
They have two attack options –
– drive up to the fortification system, stop just before, unload and then the infantry continues forward with support from the vehicle.
– drive over the defense in vehicle combat where they create gaps and fight from the vehicle. Can’t say how common this is, fortification systems are often in dominant terrain so “driving over” exposes the vehicle to the next defense line? However, this was taught to us.
Now we also deliver close infantry support so it should then unload an infantry squad with a machine gun, grenade launcher or similar reloadable weapon and a couple of anti-tank shots.
Just this is enough to repel the task force’s counterattack and then there are Western tanks with 1:3 or something, 1 platoon per company if you want to spread out.
When Bradley, Marder and CV90 arrive, they can fight in a completely different way than they have so far.
They will probably be used with Western armor to create breakthroughs and then they make ALL the difference, they win the war.
Summing it all up, tanks, IFVs and artillery, it’s probably 3-4 brigades they can spread it across so they can achieve breakthroughs on up to three fronts simultaneously.
Then many were thinking about glide bombs as a response – looking historically at how it went last fall, there will probably be a lot of mushroom clouds ahead, as someone wrote – 1 glide bomb is 1 ammo depot.
According to yesterday, time is running out for passable ground, down south we are close/there and in the north there are weeks left – there is a distinct deadline for the Russian offensive.
Bakhmut seems to be heating up, bits fly by that they are deploying tanks and IFVs now, exactly where is not clear.
According to the analysis of Bakhmut a week ago, it is a critical situation if Berkhivka is taken – now that is not entirely true because you have to take the dominant terrain around it to create a threat. Sitting in a cauldron and getting stones thrown at you is not threatening.
Yahidne is in the valley and Berkhivka is also in a valley. Noel thought the Russians had reached dominant terrain/hill in the area but it was not clear exactly where and Deepstatemap has a somewhat strange layout.
I believe the dominant terrain west of the “valley”, west of Berkhivka is firmly in UA hands.
That is west of Dubovo-Vasylivka and then around Khromove but UA still holds that.
Until that happens, it looks mostly unpleasant on a map but UA holds the dominant terrain today.
Then there should be a UA counterattack from Pryvillia, I think, which hits the flank of the anti-tank mines – that has not played out yet.
According to Defmon, they have rotated in 9 VDV regiments of which 6 are fighting in the area – it is understandable that they achieve successes.
However, 9 VDV regiments have a best-before date and if they go “all-in” which has become somewhat their trademark, it will probably be quite fast.
You never know the numbers for Wagner but they have been around a long time, have ammunition shortages and conflicts with the army.
Then there are probably some motorized brigades supporting where the tanks come from?
To me, it feels like offensive operations at Bakhmut have an end date, partly due to the fighting units but also the weather.
If necessary, they will probably abandon the city and hold the dominant terrain west of it, not far from there we have the canal which as soon as the ice breaks becomes a natural obstacle.
But that also means UA will retake the area later this spring. They have just rotated in new units so that signals a will to hold the city but Zelensky is starting to prepare the ground for a retreat. It is probably up to the Bakhmut command and how it develops.
My money is on them at least trying a counterattack north of Bakhmut if needed and only if that fails will a retreat be considered.
At least the Netherlands share the same thoughts as me. However, winter is now over, so this year there was no attack on our soft targets that made a difference.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1627932433889779712?s=20
11:11 – Johan No.1
So far a very good speech by Putin, just hot air 👍
11:48 – Johan No.1
Saw Stefpalm’s video from the guy with the male dialect and it just struck me that as soon as it gets above freezing, the water obstacle in Bakhmut becomes a natural barrier again and they have still not fallen back behind/beyond it.
The Russians won’t cross that water obstacle pronto.
Then apparently the fields are a few days away from becoming a lake of mud. UA should hold out a few more days before the weather again helps them as it has throughout the war.
Same as in Vuhledar where they retook the terrain up to the water obstacle.
12:55 – MatsExtrude
Steady!
15:11 – Johan No.1
I respond with a cautious thank you, a bit worried about which direction this will spiral after the not so flattering (for me) discussion above.
15:34 – MatsExtrude
No blame should fall on you in that discussion!
The only thing you can be accused of is posting before you were done (happens to ERIK14 quite often).
It’s rather us others who should be ashamed for showing an unusually low level of humor?
17:57 – Johan No.1
Just seeing this picture is enough to understand that they will never win and that they will lose.
You can hardly lump themselves together more than they have here.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1628070603742752775?s=20
18:32 – MatsExtrude
As someone wrote, it almost looks staged because they can’t behave that amateurishly.
It’s been a year and they don’t seem to have learned anything at all.
10:49 – Johan No.1
A fairly decent shooting field and well-built fortification, difficult to take with infantry across the field.
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1627876006861148160?s=20