09:42 – Johan No.1
There were some open doors kicked in since the blog brought up Jdam and Erik14 wrote about lots of mushroom clouds yesterday, I saw.
09:51 – Johan No.1
Pro-Russian Rybar below – in what he writes, I interpret it as China throwing in a handful of stakes on Russia’s side but only as much as they can afford to lose, so far.
A quick end to the war can probably restore order a bit, but even if Russia is thrown out of Ukraine, they will prepare for the next round as soon as possible (my speculation).
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1628057205994844162?s=20
It almost felt in the speech yesterday that Putin moved the goalposts from Ukraine to strengthening the country for the next existential war; he has given up, but that changes nothing in essence, and you have to give him credit for being good at cooking his soups out of nothing.
I am quite sure this will become a stab-in-the-back legend – all of NATO attacked them in Ukraine.
Then you can reason that the West has been reasonable for no reason at all, and that is partly true, but we have not yet seen China go all in, and maybe they would have otherwise.
Then it’s directly embarrassing that one spent the first months of the war thinking a stab-in-the-back legend could be avoided.
We will quite soon discover that a loss in UA changes nothing in essence. Russia plods on, and “the other side” continues with its skewed worldview.
The other side consists of the world’s dictatorships and speaks reverse language – all good is evil and vice versa. They probably drive all anti-movements in the West and portray themselves as victims, but since I have worked in such countries, it’s just oppression of the citizens and a criminal clan.
They naturally prefer to live like gods in their dictatorship with absolute power rather than belong to the West and be forced to become functioning democracies.
The West must think beyond the end of the war, which of course they do.
Regarding Russia, it is my conviction that they need to be contained behind NATO; there is no other way forward.
Then Kaliningrad needs to be demilitarized and Belarus to have its revolution and be tied to the West – but by legal means.
That referendum in Kaliningrad wasn’t so bad, and Belarus is just on the brink of popular uprising.
-then the EU has “straightened out” its border with Russia and can set up an impenetrable border defense.
The border with Russia must have an Israel-style Iron Dome and decent perimeter protection. The better-off countries in the West pay so that it doesn’t drain the countries bordering Russia to have a larger standing army than they can afford.
Each country has a number of standing brigades they deploy, and the level of training and joint exercises is absolutely raised significantly, and brigades that have been in the countries bordering Russia for a year or two are rotated.
Military bases also provide prosperity because the soldiers spend money in the local area and that creates civilian jobs.
– We absolutely need JEF and we need NATO permanently.
All the -stans are a bit tricky, right now Georgia is acting strangely but otherwise Georgia and Azerbaijan are probably good candidates for NATO if you look at the map, but the map is pretty useless when it comes to ethnic groups, ruling families, and other currents in motion. I usually say broadly that all the -stans should join NATO but that’s not even a simplification, it’s just a look at the map…
– Moldova is just to be taken under the umbrella, they are literally begging for support right now.
– Hungary will eventually settle things with Orban themselves, the EU is prosperity.
– Serbia, who knows, I don’t know that country but they seem quite difficult and probably feel that an injustice was done to them when the US intervened in their ethnic cleansing war.
– Turkey can probably also settle things with Erdogan and Islamism, not everyone in that country is fully satisfied and pre-Erdogan Turkey was actually quite reasonable.
The EU will definitely come out stronger from this and the EU border against Russian aggression will be much better.
The last time this happened, the Soviet Union was already in half of Germany and that lasted until 1989 – what a geopolitical lottery this has been, just have to thank Putin. And that we got Ukraine with us in the West – wow.
The next round Russia will of course have millions instead of a few hundred thousand and they have Chinese technology but they still won’t find an opening to attack.
I don’t think there will be demarcation zones inside Russian territory but the border countries themselves can have an uninhabited corridor of 30 km that they mine up and build the enormous Maginot Line of our time which actually works unlike the French one.
However, I see no reason to lift sanctions against Russia and we probably won’t return to normal, that train has Putin smashed, burned, and salted the earth around already.
We simply have to take what we get and try to achieve the best possible outcome. After that, we will probably enter maybe 10 years of Russian threats and rhetoric while they rebuild their army and then something will happen.
If we can then make sure it is impossible to get to Europe, they will have to turn elsewhere.
The best thing would be if China and Russia end up clashing with each other in the end, not entirely impossible actually if you look at history.
There is also another option but I don’t think it is on the table because then Russia would really have to turn inward – complete disintegration and many provinces declaring independence?
That would, however, make a future threat from Russia much smaller so it IS attractive from a security perspective.
Russia is one of the few colonial powers left and is a patchwork of different peoples oppressed by the central regime in Moscow.
However, 4/5 of 140 million identify as ethnic Russians according to Google.
It wouldn’t make a huge difference if only 110 million remain after division, I think, still a tough country.
What could happen is that different leaders take their own piece, Shoigu is from Tuva, Kadyrov Chechnya, Prigozhin is probably looking for something and he might offer a Wagner republic – protection in exchange for a high position, St Petersburg and five other oblasts want to declare independence from the Russian union, etc.
In eastern Russia there are probably more sub-republics that are fed up with Moscow’s bullying.
Those bordering China might have some Chinese influence to turn towards China – I wouldn’t be surprised at all if China ties them economically to itself.
https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rysslands_federationssubjekt
The map below shows quite well how it looks, both all the oblasts and then the sub-republics.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Russian_Regions-EN.svg
Of course, analysts are plotting different outcomes and possible paths forward but the free West is limited in what tools we can use and must seize the opportunity when it comes and make the best possible of the actual outcome.
Russia is just one piece in the game, the other is China and if the outcome here (purely hypothetically) is that China manages to tie all of Siberia and eastern Russia to itself, not much has been gained in the long run, we have just swapped one threat for another.
At least I see no value in trying to increase trade and exchange with Russia now, but if oblasts like Kaliningrad and St Petersburg (Leningrad?) break away, you could very quickly tie them legally to yourself?
I think it is worth trying to reason with Belarus, the population has already risen up and the Ukraine war should act as a catalyst.
09:51 – Johan No.1
Hi LW, the comment got stuck in the filter if you find time to possibly release it?
09:58 – MatsExtrude
It really looks positive. The offensive has completely stalled. No new one is in sight.
Bakhmut has been written off several times but still holds out. Around Kremina they haven’t made much progress at all and AFU has taken back some. In northernmost Luhansk there has barely been any movement. At Vuhledar they keep hitting mines one after another.
We were worried they might push hard and take significantly more territory. AFU would in the worst case have to fall back as far as Oskil.. Maybe the Russians would succeed in closing the pincer between Kreminna and Bakhmut and take Siversk..
None of that has happened, so far the Russians’ offensive has only amounted to a thumb.
I think they will make a few more attempts before it’s over and before Ukraine launches its counteroffensive but I don’t think it’s anything to worry about.
10:01 – MatsExtrude
Forgot to give +100!
10:15 – Johan No.1
My God, it’s over (in the sense that we still have months of war left).
It’s completely insane that they have to reinforce Vuhledar because there were maybe a dozen brigades there.
First the marines fell, then the 72nd, 14 Spetsnaz and then the DPR troops swept across the fields.
After that there was a Ukrainian counterattack, a Russian counterattack that failed, and then a Russian flank attack that ended in death.
– have they already managed to burn through 7-8 brigades and have to bring in Wagner?
These Wagner forces have been pulled away from Bakhmut – positive.
10:19 – Johan No.1
Yep, the Cossack was right and Gregg was right which is fun.
I have been worried about northern Luhansk actually but as soon as they got stuck, the hornet’s nest with dark combat means came out and ran Suomussalmi 2.0 up there so it doesn’t seem like anything will happen there either.
Then I saw from Budanov from Bingbong below that they had until 31/3, the question is whether they have rubber ducks with them when they swim across the fields or if they use fins and try to walk on top.
10:36 – Johan No.1
Completely on topic – now the glide bombs are coming and one bomb is a Russian ammunition depot. Don’t know how many.
Ukraine has also received 2500 suicide drones which they absolutely have not used much, one drone is a hit after all.
In the latest deliveries from all countries there was 1555mm ammunition, then you have Jdam LW writes about above.
Then you have conversion kits for dumb bombs to Jdam that have been delivered. Quantity unknown.
UA is also good at guiding “dumb” artillery fire with drones so they have learned to conserve ammunition in general.
Then all the drone-dropped grenades from GRK ammunition.
And they seem to be using GRK actively now.
Then 105mm caliber artillery.
Shortage of tank/IFV ammunition, don’t know?
Small caliber, don’t know either?
Russia suffers from destroyed ammunition depots in a completely different way than Ukraine does because the Russians chose to strike their power infrastructure instead.
I think Ukraine has “saved up” during late autumn for their winter offensive which is now becoming a spring offensive but sure, ammunition is used at the front, no doubt about that.
What can change the game is if China steps in and sends large amounts of ammunition but then you have a logistical monster ahead of you and above all – they have to get it to the front.
The biggest problem for the Russians is probably getting the ammunition they have to the front before it is destroyed.
My thoughts on that, have also read the production texts you posted so haven’t missed them 😀
10:48 – Johan No.1
Stefpalm – no I’m not the accent guy 😀
I usually write the post in bullet points the previous day and then polish it during the morning and post when the day’s post goes up.
I never read others’ summaries, like KOS, to avoid getting stuck in their thought patterns. Then you always latch onto some big breakthrough the Russians are supposed to make that never happens.
I learned that early in the match when I latched onto Mariupol’s impending fall and it took several months – do the analysis yourself.
However, you always post the accent guy and when you then check today’s harvest I often feel you get confirmation of what you think you have seen in the feeds.
Then the accent guy is very detailed, I think he has contacts with first-hand information or alternatively is a channel for UA to reach English-speaking readers.
I’m just sitting here putting the pieces together with the information flying around like everyone else 😀
10:57 – Johan No.1
They fled already at Vuhledar as soon as the tank was hit so some unit with newly mobilized attacked and has already confirmed his thoughts.
We have put Dengamle at the helm but you get a bit worried here when he writes about sleeping in at 06:00 and then disappears how the navigation will go 😀
But that means there is a seat left at the table and then if I’m honest I have taken some precautions for when more and more start to see the light and begin to realize how it will go – I have bought an archipelago boat with lots of space and sold the speedboat I had overbooked several times over.
10:58 – Johan No.1
Danke.
11:22 – MatsExtrude
I think when Ukraine starts rolling up the Russians in the stands something bigger will probably be needed. I think you should inquire if you can borrow one of the oligarchs’ seized luxury yachts.
DENGAMLE kept going pretty well last night, maybe he worked a whole night shift and went to bed when he wished Good Morning.
11:30 – Johan No.1
UA offensive starts in April (which is when the ground holds according to the accent guy) then the Azov strike is delivered within weeks.
Crimea needs months to be cleared.
Northern Luhansk keeps going whether mud or not. SOF runs around with swim fins instead.
The darkest Donbass is the difficult part but presumably it has reached the breaking point since Crimea falls and northern Luhansk is captured and 1st and 2nd Army corps throw in the towel so you don’t have to take the area by force.
11:33 – Johan No.1
Very nice – I have always thought that “clean energy” is the next step and as soon as the West reaches that any country can become Dubai in electricity export.
Then we have automation and moving manufacturing back to Europe, China was difficult in general and COVID made it impossible.
EU is definitely moving towards a new golden age here.
Then Africa actually has all the raw materials the West might need and recycling means you don’t need to extract 100% new for a product anymore.
The West leaves Russia and China behind in the dark Middle Ages and enters the Enlightenment.
11:35 – Johan No.1
Yes I saw that he and Erik14 did a very informative evening shift which is always super fun to go through in the morning 😀👍
12:13 – Johan No.1
Seems like the glide bombs have come to good use –
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1628151350142926848?s=20
12:23 – Johan No.1
11:49, you were probably right away LW with that angle on NS1-2 about insurance fraud. The rest of us didn’t see that value and I want to recall that at least I reasoned that maybe it wasn’t Russia. That was a pretty sharp take the first day I must admit.
09:40 – Johan No.1
We were supposed to keep an eye on GeneralSVR regarding him saying that Putin would announce a mobilization of 200,000 in his speech.
He didn’t do that, so I’m now parking GeneralSVR as 100% Qanon-style psyops. What Girkin says has often proven true, but this psyops is entirely false information, if anyone other than me even read him.
Do you remember the discussion a few days ago about the Russians’ numbers in UA from Free Ukraine?
“44 brigades distributed over 113 regiments, 92 battalions, around 40 special unit groups. In total, there should be up to 351,800 Russian soldiers and officers in Ukraine.”
I can’t translate the above into BTG, so I count on 44 Russian brigades and the total matches very well with previous assessments that have circulated.
UA now has 65 brigades at the front; how intact they all are, we don’t know, but that’s the number at active fronts. I haven’t counted the northern front or the 14 brigades being formed.
– 44 RUS brigades against 65 UA brigades + 14 upcoming.
We already know the difference in capability and that BTG doesn’t matter, BUT now Ukraine reasonably also has more maneuver brigades than Russia available, which is very positive.
I now count NG and Territorial as at least decent infantry; it’s been a long time since Territorial was untrained home guard.
Hard numbers that are hard to dispute.
Then how much is left inside Russia is a bit unclear, but in Belarus, there should be very little.
The training camps inside Russia had been emptied, and then some had not been emptied.
One indication might be that they (maybe) prepared for an offensive down from the northern front between Kupiansk – Kharkiv. According to UA sources, there were not even 10,000 there.
If they had “hundreds of thousands” left, they would reasonably also have resourced such an offensive similar to the northern Luhansk, but that’s just my speculation.
I think the killer snails will probably start crawling around in the mud in Bakhmut seriously in a day or two. Maybe a bit early to declare the danger over, but we are approaching safe ground very quickly. It also seems like Ukraine has pushed in rested reserves, as we wrote about yesterday, so the intention is to try to resolve the situation.
According to Noel, the latest information is that Berkhivka and Yahidne have not been lost, and then Bakhmut is not lost. Or, when they show the flag in the town center, they still have the hills to take, and before they have done that, no one retreats from Bakhmut.
Then Wagner has ammunition shortages in Bakhmut but… woohoo – the army units in Vuhledar also have that, it’s ammunition shortages everywhere reasonably and a real biggie that I think we are starting to get confirmed.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1628296809310199808?s=20
I add a factor that drove the Ardennes offensive that I have never brought up in my ignorance – Russian ammunition shortage.
Now we first enter a longer period of base explosions again up to the 150km mark. Not entirely unreasonable that longer range has been delivered than that, or quite likely that is the case.
I am quite sure the deliveries have arrived or are on the way, why delay?
If we go by how it has looked historically, we will now get about a month of depot armageddon, and if the Russians are already short on ammunition, it could become a real crisis for them quite soon.
If they are as cunning as weasels, they will probably knock out everything within 150km first and then take two weeks and knock out everything beyond 150km or something – the depot workers’ gymnastics were worth nothing.
The next question will be when it dries up, YouTuber voice No.1 says in April. All armor comes in March, so not unlikely? I have thought May, and we know that in WW2 the attack was delayed, so early June is a bad reference.
-when the ground bears, Ukraine strikes. You absolutely need to get a decisive offensive going before the Russians manage to push out large numbers of newly mobilized into defense.
When that offensive rolls out over the craters, it’s the end of Russian presence in Ukraine; the only question then is how much the Russians choose to save, which dictates how fast they retreat.