11:31 – Johan No.1
I thought Militaryland had fitting anniversary tweets which I list below just for the archive. The bookmark on Twitter is so full that you can’t find anything anymore and as soon as a few days have passed on active accounts it’s over (from someone who barely knows Twitter).
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1629098004429807617?s=20
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1629089850426118145?s=20
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1629080878268678144?s=20
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1629037807543918593?s=20
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1629045754122715137?s=20
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1628882738391535617?s=20
11:42 – Johan No.1
Saw a couple of comments above and one was David who wondered if the Russians tried but it went so badly that nothing was noticed.
Yes, they had intense attacks on Vuhledar, I don’t know who is attacking or how many but it was full throttle with armor across the fields.
-probably a correct observation that they tried on the anniversary but nothing came of it.
11:55 – MatsExtrude
+1👍
If the ground conditions cause the Russian offensive to die out on its own, mid-April might be the right time to strike back (if the ground holds).
If they continue to advance despite mud and slush (they haven’t been that smart before) I think it’s better if they can be reduced for another month before Ukraine goes on the counteroffensive.
13:35 – Johan No.1
I will try to get the contributing factors in order and in what sequence they should be.
I now realize that I am on the way to making the same mistake as with the UA winter offensive and assuming that the Russians will go on defense, which they did not at all.
You have actually looked at this historically and derived a probability from that which is pretty neat 👍
14:54 – Johan No.1
Tankfree – I know this comes a bit late but only now am I reading what you actually write.
The Russian standing army is soon wiped out, the mobilization of 300,000 is soon zeroed and after having abandoned 40% of the country’s territory they cannot conduct offensive operations at all, they have suffered astronomical losses Jan-Feb and won zero.
IF they were to mobilize some million then we have a different situation.
But as it looks today, dangling the Russian threat as you do is actually astonishing and I don’t understand what information you are relying on here?
Ukraine has +350,000 men in maneuver brigades who have reached wizard level.
Do you seriously mean that the Russians can top that with well-trained and capable units?
They don’t have the numbers?
Do you have information that they will mobilize?
17:29 – Johan No.1
I have always believed 90,000 but then when it started to get serious there was someone here, or LW, don’t remember, who had from a reliable source that they vouched that the Belarusian army was 12,000 combatants and then there was a bit around that.
So then it became 12,000 instead.
Whether they are 90k or 12k is probably not so important, they have no combat experience and the Belarusian brigades in Ukraine are wizard level.
Then a few thousand Ukrainian SOF volunteers on top of that and it’s probably solved.
17:35 – Johan No.1
To dilute the Hungary discussion a bit, let’s run Russian autonomous fighting robots, it goes so-so.
https://twitter.com/vic_010100/status/1627695045485727744?s=20
18:50 – Johan No.1
A very long shot after half a beer that has been in the fridge since last night – do you think all the pilots who resigned fit the picture?
Like trainers on site in Ukraine or something?
Yeah, I know, it’s the alcohol talking now…
07:12 – Johan No.1
Seems like the counterattack north of Bakhmut is playing out –
https://twitter.com/friaukraina/status/1629538075956195330?s=46&t=45-91ootWy6MFeio8v4v3g
07:20 – Johan No.1
Warmonitor completely without source writes that the Russians have reached Bohdanivka.
Such a breakthrough would be strange, then they have done some “million man assault” with new units?
Not a crisis but definitely a serious situation if true, unconfirmed so far.
Let’s see what Gregg writes, he gets info from first-hand sources.
08:07 – Johan No.1
Noticed a relapse into bodysmaning and the usual counter with promising the boat spot, seems to have become a full routine. Found a half-full beer on the table and a full one in the fridge, and saw that my last post was before nine – will be hard to claim it was a full evening 😀
To my great joy, I saw that there were others in the thread who understood the whole spectrum of beer and chips.
Now we have a whole week of creativity ahead of us and we have to figure out if it was a frozen Russian to death then Suomosalmi 2.0 was correct 👍
08:51 – Johan No.1
Oh then it’s a serious situation.
Thought they came from the south but if it’s from the north it’s really bad.
The most important thing now is whether UA controls the heights or not.
If they ran in the valley during the night, kind of, the risk is not very high but if they sweep the hills clean at the same time it’s serious.
Then there will either be a UA counterattack where they commit something from their offensive reserves or they start thinking about nesting out.
That attack will presumably come along road M03.
09:26 – Johan No.1
Backing down completely on this one because Gregg has now sorted out the situation in Bakhmut for us, scroll on, drink the dregs left in the wine bottle and pick up the last peanuts on the floor.
09:27 – Johan No.1
That said, the rules are such that I cannot promise any boat spot with alcohol in my body and I am not allowed to remove any of the extra equipment either – everything is still there waiting for the test drive 😀
11:29 – Johan No.1
If the Russians had done this at every crossing over the Dnieper, this war would have looked very different, but there are no consolation prizes in war, which the hypnopad will learn the hard way.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1629080878268678144?s=20
I think the base suppression has continued here, new detonations in Mariupol?
It should continue for about a month if we are to follow previous mushroom cloud periods.
Let this sink in – they have armor over to the Home Guard. Gregg has already confirmed it and now it is officially confirmed.
https://twitter.com/friaukraina/status/1629250745424814080?s=46&t=Z4NEGJcT9X7ewDj2VpZONw
Check this out – drone-dropped grenade in central Donetsk…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1629404230606807040?s=20
I’m leaving China out because it’s a matter of interpretation and if there’s anything more tiring than a speech by Putin, it’s a very long yes-no about a hypothetical question you don’t have the answer to.
What I do want to clarify, however, is that I look at this from a perspective that extends to Ukrainian victory, and I saw nothing in China’s peace overture that will succeed/actively try to counter that. Throwing the Russians under the bus is, to me, not actively trying to stop an upcoming Russian defeat. Exaggeration for effect resulting in a position that cannot be defended, but people do it anyway 😀
That China supports Russia has, well, I have claimed against the wind throughout the war, and that they will want to stake a claim to trade in the future is probably also likely.
The liveliest thing that happened on the anniversary was probably that the thread broke the record in comments or that there was a big party at home – the third beer can was only half drunk so I put it in the fridge for tonight and my wife got through about half a glass of wine.
I also understood this morning why the youngest overdosed on sugar and refused to sleep – they had managed to find a bag of those little Daim chocolates and there were red wrappers all over the kitchen. It totally got out of hand and started making beds on the floor before parental diplomacy sorted it all out.
Above all, a worried friend of mine in a bunker wonders what has happened with the Russian offensive and further mobilization, he is starting to look a bit drawn in the face and calls far too often.
We know from the weather map that it will rain and the ground will start to loosen from today – 3-4 days of heavy rain and good plus degrees. The two-week forecast, which we have learned now when always checking it for the electricity price that it never matches, suggests plus degrees during the day, minus degrees at night, and quite a lot of rain.
This should soon make an offensive along the entire southern front, Donetsk, Bakhmut-Siversk impossible if it rains heavily while the temperature rises.
3-4 days of rain should also take care of the killer slugs (and Gregg’s new brigade) north of Bakhmut; being soaked and cold does not exactly increase combat value. Hiding in houses in large groups they will soon also discover is a lousy idea.
If they just get through Bakhmut, we can probably soon ring the bell that the danger is over along the southern front and all the way up to Siversk for this time – it must be downright embarrassing to be a Russian general.
UA would always retreat over the river/watercourse inside the city of Bakhmut – now that the ice has melted it is a natural obstacle.
I did not fully manage to interpret today’s Gregg but I think the counterattack north of Bakhmut is playing out now. Should it fail and the killer slugs manage to get up on the hills, it is a serious situation but we are not there yet. That they have taken selfies from the communities in the valleys is a nothing-burger.
There are terrible pictures/videos on pro-Russian forums from Bakhmut and right now many Ukrainian soldiers are dying around the city – one really wants this sh1t war to end every day 😬
Up in northern Luhansk it should be passable longer because it is more sandy soil and then it does not get as muddy in the forest areas. Above all, Ukrainian SOF do not take a ski holiday. There Ukraine will press on.
According to previous discussion, one might want to beta test Western armor as early as possible, we wrote a battalion but maybe that was a bit much.
The area in northern Luhansk is a good candidate for a beta test and then one can evaluate ahead of the spring offensive.
I would have done that if I were UA combat command. Crews, company commanders, and battalion commanders probably want to learn the systems’ strengths and weaknesses beyond what they have received in training and good advice, I think, before sending 4 brigades forward in line.
Since everything seems to be in UA now, and they probably want to test everything, we will probably see CV90 in combat soon. It will be the second time this year I shed tears, the last was when the kids swept the dip bowl onto the floor after the grocery store closed on a promising Friday night.
I absolutely do not want to sound like an ungrateful cuckoo chick – and Sweden just keeps delivering so much that I have trouble handling all the feelings.
However, Gripen would also be fun for the simple reason that the more weapon systems we get into combat and advertising, the more we can sell when NATO is to be armed. It creates jobs. If we do not send Gripen, I am at least very satisfied with Sweden’s contribution 👍
In recent years, that has not been very often, I saw myself in Africa how our aid went to the elite’s consumption or weapons to shoot citizens with and our strategy for electricity supply kicked me straight into the electricity underclass – not very happy when I sat scraping ice off the monitor in the mornings.
Regarding Sweden’s strategy for the Ukraine war, however, I have to say that all involved get a big A++. It is excellently navigated. If we can be equally mature in NATO and take responsibility for the defense of the Baltic Sea and the Baltics, we will probably be very well regarded in the EU and NATO going forward – when I moved to the UK in 1999, you automatically became friends with everyone because you were Swedish.
I wonder if it is time to try to figure out when the ground will bear for the spring offensive?
We now know that Western armor has started arriving in Ukraine and the training of the 14 brigades has been going on quite a while and that they have never committed their offensive reserves here.
Now the Russian offensive will not die out because of energy but because of the weather.
However, I think there is great value in taking the initiative on all front sections as soon as the ground bears because the longer time goes, the more they get to rest, re-equip, prepare defense, and mobilize.
There is no advantage in waiting long.
So when does the ground bear, April thought the accent man on YouTube, May I thought, and June was the last time it happened.
It probably takes a month for pre-suppression so April may not be entirely unreasonable along the southern front?
I base the ground becoming impassable here on how it looked during the autumn as well as historically when the Germans entered in 1941.
Could it be something else because it is a La Nina year?
It looks like there will be quite a lot of rain in the 14-day forecast.