11:31 – Johan No.1
The accent man that Informationsbyrån posted claims that the rain has come now and that a new Russian attack with new brigades at Vuhledar (possibly) has been disrupted by it.
I also think it is a VDV or Spetznaz officer in the film?
A very good description of the dominant terrain though.
In any case, it is a new elite unit that one can hope will soon run across the fields and be decimated to zero.
It is significant because it means that the previous group in the area of what, 7-8 brigades, has been worn down and replaced?
After the big day of chaos and after the DPR attacked with a waving saber, there have been many attacks and counterattacks in the area and it is not unreasonable that they wore everything out.
In the end, the shooters fled as soon as the first shot was fired.
We know that the Russians started their winter offensive on January 6 and we know that Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhia Oblasts were likely targets.
Now at the end of February and with the start of the mud season approaching, they have not achieved a single one of these attack goals.
The value of the attack goals is of course highly debatable in itself but the important thing is that two months of offensive have resulted in nothing and Ukraine has held back its offensive reserve all the time.
The Russians on the other hand have committed a fairly large part of their offensive (relatively) capable reserve. Before January 6 they had 150,000 of (relatively) capable reserves left, I have guessed.
The problem here is that they have attacked with a somewhat mixed mix during the winter and it is quite messy.
If I may guess, they have used up maybe +80,000 of (relatively) capable offensive reserve in TOTAL losses since January 6 – dead, wounded AND frostbite AND HIMARSed bases.
They have brought their (relatively) capable units within range of indirect fire and we know that UA has struck bases in northern Luhansk, darkest Donbass and behind the southern front.
Besides the +60,000 that then remain of (relatively) capable units, the rest of the invasion army consists of mobilized with various lengths of training.
The threatening task force in the event of a Ukrainian breakthrough in spring is now heavily decimated and cannot be replaced 👍
Up in northern Luhansk the ground carries longer according to what we have learned, sandy soils and it does not get so muddy in the forests.
But nothing is happening there either and UA has retaken a few hundred meters in the forests SW of Kreminna according to Deepstatemap.
According to all-star Gregg, the Russians have gone into hedgehog around Kreminna.
If you remember the earlier discussion it went like this – as long as the Russians attacked it was a threat to UA in the area and as soon as they stopped they become victims and prey. The hornet swarm with SOF who were smart enough to bring extra batteries for the image intensifiers create their Suomussalmi 2.0
If you have 130,000 men in such a small area it is a huge biggie if UA manages to advance and if RU stops.
I was so worried that I used the strong expression “messy” to describe a possible outcome up there.
Then you can’t help but point out that not even up in northern Luhansk where they have concentrated 130,000 men and 1000 tanks within a geographically small area did anything happen.
This threatening offensive that has dangled in front of us worried ones has really not delivered for the Russian team.
Speaking of Suomussalmi 2.0, the question is whether the soldiers in the video froze to death or not. Can someone who masters the language maybe translate what they say?
I am thinking wounded who froze to death here?
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1629561484685504514?s=20
Bakhmut – according to the sources we usually listen to, they had retaken and then lost a couple of settlements N of Bakhmut. That is the counterattack that has played/is playing out and to first take and then lose means many dead which really stings.
However, today’s Gregg arrived with a bang and really good news – they flooded the Bakhmutka and stopped all the killer snail crawling, they are now lying and floating around in a flooded valley.
We will probably see during the day what comes out but I have high trust in Gregg and choose to go with his information here that the area is secured and that Bakhmut holds ✊✊
Then all the usual mass posters have started the day shift and no one is jumping up and down for Bakhmut which is very reassuring.
My guess has been that the heavy rain that has now started would take care of this. Being out in open terrain in a downpour where it goes down to zero or below zero at night and you don’t have rain gear can do wonders for the combat value of the Russian special operation around Bakhmut.
Ukraine has shown great will to hold the city and the highest commander of the front’s combat leadership is in the city. At the same time, the Russians have brought down three new brigades from northern Luhansk according to Gregg – signaling some will from them too to take the city.
Don’t know if Defmon has picked up these but he has a bunch of VDV at Bakhmut now, maybe them or more?
Maybe something will come from the Cossack too but if one may guess he has other things to do.
It may also happen that UA takes from its offensive reserve and goes on the counterattack N of Bakhmut to clean up as they did at Vuhledar but if they have managed to achieve something with the flooding maybe that is enough?
The river inside the city of Bakhmut is now a natural obstacle.
Now it will be waterlogged fields and slippery slopes for a whole month for the Russian team. Not to mention soaking wet and then zero or below zero at night – the weather certainly favors Ukraine.
First they have to get into houses and try to warm up and when it is HIMARSed away it is back out into waterlogged terrain and freeze to death – have fun in the month of March around Bakhmut killer snails is probably the message here?
Have now seen a second tweet regarding Russian suicide MTLB.
I don’t yet know if they can get them to drive themselves but guess they need drivers?
In Syria they were incredibly effective (that is trucks with kind of running boards that took RPG) but I have the feeling that UA can knock them out before they come within blast radius and that if we know what they are UA also knows what a lone MTLB at full speed means.
The shining imperialistic, and proud, Russian Army is stealing a page from ISIS’s playbook and test-driving… suicide bombers.
Do you think we will see kamikaze planes soon?
11:51 – MatsExtrude
+1 Wonderful positive summary as usual!
I don’t really think we have seen their last attempt to advance but it is obvious that they will not succeed in getting very far before the offensive stops completely.
Think it’s a bit difficult to know how they plan to act. Not because they are creative but because they behave illogically stupid. I wouldn’t be surprised if they keep trying even though the ground doesn’t hold. If they have been ordered to advance, it’s not impossible that they continue trying even though it would benefit them more in the long run to dig in. There will surely be more attempts to take Vuhledar.
Raising a warning finger that Avdiivka might be in a bad situation.
11:59 – Johan No.1
I saw that and haven’t checked out Avdiivka yet, know they have attacked there too with equally poor results but haven’t dived deep.
Your reasoning about the Russian will to attack also triggered some thoughts that I will try to put together.
14:46 – Johan No.1
I believe Rybars’ map of new brigades was correct and there were over 30.
We know 14 but now Militaryland has a new Marines brigade and it was on Rybar’s map.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1629599266766311424?s=20
15:31 – Johan No.1
Stumbled upon this on a site where many comment but not in such a good tone.
Remember the waving corpse in Bucha, it was a drop of water.
That went out BIG when it happened as a staged event to smear Russia.
Gives a pretty good calibration of what absolute a£$@m the pro-Russian debaters are.
https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1510641101643919368?s=20
https://youtu.be/xkXcex2Id4M
15:44 – Johan No.1
In all goodwill, I feel you have taken in the wrong information but I may be the wrong person to write and some will quickly point that out.
The Russians have left 40% of conquered territory, have not conquered anything since January 6 and UA has received/gets 745 tanks and conquered 600 or something.
Then as LW writes, we avoid the defeat doctrine.
If my daughter plays basketball against the Dolphins who beat them 100:7, do I stand during the match and boo my daughter’s team or do I scream hoarse all the way to the hundred?
15:51 – Johan No.1
Leopard stabilizer can handle beer.
https://twitter.com/wars/status/1629567237047590917?s=46&t=T4gNzzpNQ0d2HhfFuV5YFQ
19:04 – Johan No.1
LW was quick on the ball.
I was going to reason but realize that it is really just a new tactic to discredit the blog.
Everything written is read.
Sad that it is names that have written for quite a while but good that they have gotten such crazy talking points that it completely clashes, must have been embarrassing when they realized what position they had to take this week 👍
The only utterly vile thing here is Russia’s ethnic cleansing of Ukraine.
19:23 – Johan No.1
Since this will be an archive, they can in 150 years go back and study how Russian psyops were conducted in 2023 👍
19:32 – MatsExtrude
Trying to suppress the thought of the future archive.
(Don’t want them to also have to spend unnecessary time thinking about Trude and her strange sexual preferences.)
19:40 – Johan No.1
Yes, it gets a bit sad when Friday evenings have to be analyzed.
19:55 – MatsExtrude
Hope that future digital archaeologists have some humor. If so, maybe it’s the Friday threads they will appreciate most while they wonder what beer and chips were for strange drugs we had at this time.
Regarding certain Russian trolls, they will probably be as confused as we are because they are so totally incoherent that one starts to wonder if they really are Russian trolls or if they have serious mental problems.
19:57 – Johan No.1
The Cossack is very calm 👍
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1629859919435317249?s=46&t=T4gNzzpNQ0d2HhfFuV5YFQ
07:10 – Johan No.1
Tankfree – just because you denied calling me a Russian troll a month ago, I save all your psychotic venom when it’s directed at me, 4-5 in a month which is productive 👍
Then you have managed to land in a pro-Russian narrative the last weeks so I am pretty sure you are a pro-Russian troll now, probably also mentally ill.
So there, now I cleared up my ambivalence 👍
It’s probably also time to start replying to you when you address me because you seem to think that good behavior indicates mental illness.
07:26 – Johan No.1
We have reached 10,000 hard vehicles – a neutral hooray.
We have also reached 300 aircraft.
And it is likely that we reach 150,000 dead before the end of the month, losses for February 28 will come March 1.
The Russian special operation is going splendidly.
07:51 – Johan No.1
Symbolism is important.
11:19 – Johan No.1
I fell into fear and pessimism before Gregg came today saying that Bakhmut is secured.
Then I want to recommend this one that Cornu kopia posted in yesterday’s thread, well worth reading.
The German was just as sneaky as we all thought and quite a lot else is in line with our reasoning.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/24/russia-ukraine-war-oral-history-00083757?cid=apn