09:37 – Johan No.1
Now it is one of those days when you feel physically bad about the war (not because of a wet and muddy Russian in a ditch but I think that is implied). Ukraine as a country is if not destroyed then badly wounded and what drives it forward is the belief in a win.
We cheer Ukraine all the way to whichever win they consider they want. Flagged yesterday that there will be Ukraine support going forward so it is not misinterpreted now (and if it is misinterpreted I refer to this disclaimer).
Completely insane explanatory models are coming right now in pro-Russian forums – they have used this year to “wear out the West” and make them short on ammunition. It was all just a big war trick – everyone understands that 190,000 men cannot take a country so therefore Europe is now ripe for the big Russian blow – wait for it.
When one has to resort to such free fantasies and wishful thinking (which I apparently engage in), at least I know that things are bad and that it is a good sign.
What happened to punishing and wiping out Ukraine with the help of the Russian god?
Or to conquering Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts?
Now there is a whole additional layer to this where the West is somehow completely exhausted and Russia can strike – with what?
That’s called mission creep and pure QAnon fantasies actually – nice to see that the pro-Russians are starting to have trouble handling this in a sensible way.
When the Russian winter offensive ended in death and grilled BTGs, it’s time to start dangling the next big threat in front of us. A fairly obvious problem is that this threat is completely unlikely and that all normally functioning and properly calibrated individuals understand that.
Then at least I hear the word -negotiation- a lot right now, could it be the first negotiation offer from the Russians that has come – give up Crimea and Donbass and we will consider not wiping you out?
Everyone except the Russians understands that in a few months it will come down to – leave Ukraine, send X number of officers to The Hague, the oligarchs get their money back and immunity from prosecution with some symbolic sanctions left. Criminal clan business as usual, all you need to do is leave UA. With Putin I don’t know, I’m still weighing it but since he is a wildcard you can’t predict outcomes on them.
Even China has understood that.
It also makes the rounds in pro-Russian forums now that Ukraine has run out of reserves and that their capability is running out.
Gregg and other sources have confirmed that even the home guard has received armor, of course it will be BMP-1s, T62s and old BTRs but the point is that if you have armor for the home guard, you have enough after a year of war.
Then we know that they have set up 14 new brigades and that they have been able to hold back their offensive reserve during the winter when the Russians have used up almost 60% of their offensive reserve.
I have also guessed that Rybar’s claim that UA is setting up 30 brigades is correct because the other day a Myanmar marine brigade passed by that was on Rybar’s map but that we had not heard of before.
I think this is called projection 😀
Ukraine has not run out of ammunition either, it is a topic that is starting to gain traction which probably makes Putin jump up and down with joy that the world’s media is spreading his self-projected message.
If they are short on ammunition – why do they send drones to Moscow?
Or shoot at Mariupol night after night?
Shouldn’t all focus be on the fronts then – or is it bayonet at the front and drones in Moscow in the cleverest of war stratagems?
The old Eastern Bloc states produce everything they can and the US has started up Eastern caliber production.
The free West is increasing its production of everything, for example now 100 HIMARS per year – how many were needed to make a difference in Ukraine?
Ukraine also has a whole palette of weapons of different calibers that those who didn’t think clearly mocked as “a patchwork” – all Eastern Bloc, 155mm, 105mm, GRK (82mm and 120mm) and HIMARS ammunition.
That was of course to be able to use more types of ammunition, right?
I am also quite sure that they use dumb ammunition sparingly now and above all more sparingly than the Russians.
Above all, they didn’t shoot much during late autumn to save up for their winter offensive which was resourced. Now some has been used during the winter defense but they still have ammunition left.
I see so many videos of drone-killed Russians now that one scrolls past them. If you remember at the beginning of the war it was drone-killed tanks and now it is almost exclusively Russians in a ditch who sleep with both eyes open who die – does that feel like ammunition shortage?
I rather feel it seems like a shortage of Russian tanks to drone-kill 😀
In any case, Rybar expects an indirect-fire armageddon at Ukraine’s offensive start and Russian bloggers are very worried about everything burning in Mariupol.
I expect an indirect extra-all-out from Ukraine going forward and attempts to push ammunition shortage as a truth I see as pro-Russian influence.
What causes the Russians to have shortages is not necessarily total shortage, but they have fired infinitely more than Ukraine throughout the war. The factor that must be taken into account is all the destroyed depots – when a huge depot exploded early autumn the discussion was that it could have been between 200,000 – 800,000 shells in such a depot (I know nothing about this, just repeating what was written).
Many depots exploded and now the roads are difficult to drive and the vehicle fleet is in decay.
We got a snapshot when UA took out one of the larger depots behind Bakhmut in Donetsk and all artillery around Bakhmut went silent for a while, it was Muntz(?) who wrote about it.
The Russians have problems getting their ammunition to the barrels and it will not get better, we can be sure of that.
Hilariously funny that Prigozhin gave UA information so they could knock out Wagner’s ammunition they had just received – Danke!
When it dries up in about a month it will be interesting to see if FIRMS delivers again but right now it is completely dead.
The clever ones will then try to claim that it reasonably must also be Ukrainian ammunition shortage because I claimed that many of the fires were on the Russian side.
Of course that is not the case because fewer Russian vehicles are being knocked out and then there is less Russian artillery – everything is a disadvantage for the Russians – that’s just how it is and FIRMS has confirmed it in emails.
09:41 – Johan No.1
Also forgot to point out that UA received 2,500 suicide drones with the autumn deliveries which have definitely not been used up.
You know what hype there is for 100 Iranian mopeds so we can guess what a swarm of suicide drones would have caused in the media.
I believe they have beta-tested them until now and probably received even more – I see such a swarm of locusts in front of me like the ones you see in all old films about Egypt.
09:55 – Johan No.1
This one should have been included in the post but another guy who thinks well
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1630776302868340737?s=46&t=KdodyW-PZ1oNizP5CXH94Q
09:58 – MatsExtrude
+1
Regarding the Finnish trainer, it was interesting to see that LW was on the same track as I was in yesterday’s thread (even though I initially suspected Russian influence). It could be as simple as they want to get (better) pay for their training efforts.
Regarding the Twitter rumors I posted about yesterday, there are two different tracks.
Partly that reinforcements are being sent to Bakhmut and partly the one about the southern front. I feel quite sure about Bakhmut but both could be rumors to stir up the Russians in the stands. Since it is OpSec, there should in any case be something bigger going on.
I believe (and hope) that they have decided to go hard against the Russians in Bakhmut and that it will actually not be a full retreat.
There are roads in the city, you avoid mud and worry if you send in armor, the Russians who are largely outside have it a bit worse… The city may not have much military value but symbolically I think it is important to deny the Russians from taking the city if it can be avoided.
10:05 – MatsExtrude
+1
10:18 – Johan No.1
I chose to go out hard with a pro-Russian hit-piece because the nuclear threat was involved, if nuclear weapons hadn’t been part of his discussion there could have been alternative explanations I felt 😀
Yes, that too, included it as opsec around Bakhmut but was unclear.
Pretty sure that UA counterattacks are not to let the defenders get out, otherwise we would have had it confirmed now since it’s been 48 hours since the first breakthrough (or whatever it is).
It was also always logical with a counterattack in the north down along the M03 which is exactly what has happened.
The counterattacks aim to stabilize the situation. Then they can fail and the whole situation can get out of the command’s hands, that happens, but today, March 1, it hasn’t happened yet.
Now it’s a full day of attacks and counterattacks but Gregg wrote something very interesting – that Ukraine attacked during the night. To me that means they are using their superiority in night fighting to inflict damage.
If it’s Russian shooting then they probably don’t have much night fighting equipment and UA can use tanks and IFVs with night aiming devices and infantry/SOF with image intensifiers.
Heavy rain and if you look at the map the “pocket” or whatever you call it is right out in an open field on the Deepstatemap map. I also understand that these are broad strokes but the point is that it’s Spetsnaz without rain protection and with zero degrees at night – it goes damn fast.
10:24 – Johan No.1
The YLE article is making the rounds in all forums and together with the situation in Bakhmut the story of Ukraine’s imminent collapse is now being pushed out.
YLE could have thought this through, that the Russians want to die in Bakhmut is not their fault but they don’t need to fan the flames.
We know from before that all pro-Russian psyops that can spin on something they use.
That article didn’t even need to be misinterpreted to be used.
Today it’s rain/snow in Bakhmut and on Sunday heavy rain again, probably damn fun for Spetsnaz in that little bulge on Deepstatemap because it’s right in the middle of a presumably very waterlogged field.
10:47 – MatsExtrude
Now they are probably up on the height as well (in extension from Yahidne and westwards) but if they manage to close the pocket it obviously doesn’t matter much if there are some Russians left in the middle of the pocket.
Gregg also wrote about attacks southwards. I wouldn’t be surprised if they also try to push the Russians away south, southwest of Bakhmut to be able to use the road west again. Of course depends on how many reinforcements they decide to commit.
11:24 – Johan No.1
I find these small suicide boxes interesting, since it’s the Russians they will probably mostly just set them out instead of burying them?
A blast from a tank a few kilometers away and the Russian in the suicide box is dead.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1630635796481884165?s=20
11:29 – Johan No.1
1- I think UA has lost around 20,000 and RU around 150,000.
Then you have 1:3-4 for UA and 1:2 for RU
(my opinion).
2- If RU were competent it would be peace today and they would have all territory east of the Dnipro – yes you are right.
3- The USA had quite strict control of the Ukrainian command but I perceive that they have gradually loosened up on the Ukrainians during the war – probably because they learn damn fast and do an excellent job.
11:29 – Johan No.1
I’m painting with broad strokes.
11:33 – MatsExtrude
Ah, those concrete outdoor toilets were a while ago (suicide box was a better name). I also sense some small pyramid-shaped speed bumps in the background.
Corruption has probably led to them being cast with wooden sticks as reinforcement and with poor concrete quality. A few 40mm rounds from a CV90 are probably enough to get through. The biggest risk is getting stone lung from all the concrete dust when passing them.
12:00 – MatsExtrude
Ah, that was no criticism. Just adding my own reflections!
Forgot to put a +1 in front!
12:30 – Johan No.1
On pro-Russian sites it says – “Lukashenko arrived in Beijing and was greeted by Xi Jinping” and it’s to the picture below 😀
Everything that can be misinterpreted and lied about is done and many still believe it.
https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/4185071/belarus-leader-lukashenko-arrives-beijing-talks
12:30 – Johan No.1
On pro-Russian sites it says – “Lukashenko arrived in Beijing and was greeted by Xi Jinping” and it’s to the picture below 😀
Everything that can be misinterpreted and lied about is done and many still believe it.
https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/4185071/belarus-leader-lukashenko-arrives-beijing-talks
12:37 – Johan No.1
I thought the most important thing about the sanctions was that the free West held all oligarch fortunes as hostages?
Belgium alone had +100 billion euros seized well and Switzerland is now on board?
And then no travel to the West, losing the apartment in Londongrad, the daughters can’t continue at Cambridge and all that stuff that really hurts a large-size Russian oligarch?
China has throughout the war supplied Russia with components for the war industry I have claimed so it’s kept barely afloat.
Pro-Russian sites are doing exactly the same exercise as we are doing here right now and trying to prove that the West is on its last legs with graphs and diagrams.
12:39 – MatsExtrude
Xi probably needs help. His strange skull shape indicates he has Hydrocephalus.
12:47 – Johan No.1
Additional to the discussion about Bakhmut, I do think the city has symbolic value for the Russians?
They are absolutely desperate right now for a win, anything.
Bakhmut is big enough to be sold as that if they put lipstick on the pig according to the standard routine.
Would it have any practical significance – probably not.
For Ukraine it’s a Russian killer and when cost-benefit hits the ceiling they retreat and if it never hits the ceiling they stay.
13:06 – MatsExtrude
It’s surprising how much of the discussions from both sides resemble each other. Feels like two parallel universes.
If you read too much you can almost become schizophrenic because you recognize many of the arguments and you agree with them, but wait now, they come from the wrong side!
Many of them are probably sitting just like us and think they are on the right side because they are brainwashed..
Think about the thought that maybe it’s us who are the brainwashed ones…
Of course we are not but that’s probably something they must experience when they eventually wake up (if they wake up). Must be a strange experience..
Sorry for my rambling digression!
That thing about the oligarchs was probably something people thought about early on. That if they pressured them hard, they might convince Putin to stop. It didn’t work at all.
On the other hand, a lot of capital has still been locked up and maybe Ukraine can get access to that money later. Then we also have those 300 billion USD that belonged to the Russian state treasury. This year’s Russian state budget is running a 43 billion deficit and that money has to come from somewhere, so it was probably good that they didn’t have access to those 300 billion.
The sanctions are probably felt even if they haven’t worked as hoped (that they would end the war).
13:14 – MatsExtrude
Agree 110%!
14:41 – Johan No.1
You shouldn’t underestimate drone-dropped wing grenades, 155mm into reinforced trenches when everyone runs there and then finally air bursts when the Russians have to go out into the trench to meet advancing Ukrainians.
It almost sounds silly but during a breakthrough you don’t need to make a huge wide hole so about 20 drones with cassettes dropping wing grenades and some HIMARS with prepared tungsten rain will get you far.
Before that, you’ve put 155mm into all armor in defense that you’ve reconned with drones beforehand.
And had counter-battery fire with Archer and Arthur.
And laid mines at a distance so the assault force from the 200 VDV that are still alive don’t get through.
During the advance it’s direct fire on the target that applies, maybe you let a tank stand outside the no-fire zone and take out geographically possible targets, buildings, suicide cubes and a bit more.
16:48 – Johan No.1
Prigozhin doesn’t really believe in a Ukrainian loss in Bakhmut 👍
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1630908175892316160?s=46&t=TPrdjhYDc3jQI35CLpYw-Q
16:57 – MatsExtrude
+1 Wondering if he’s trying to position himself as the “honest” one who tells the truth?
Saw this:
Having proposed a new law against ”discrediting” the Russian troops who take part in invading Ukraine, Evgeny Prigozhin is now concerned that the draft legislation might protect Russia’s military leadership from ”constructive criticism” (such as his own).
06:49 – Johan No.1
Botmania, take a look at this from Oryxperiskop, it’s huge amounts of offensive weapons that have been sent.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html
Even the Ukrainian home guard has received combat vehicles, they have too much is probably the biggest problem right now.
07:15 – Johan No.1
You read the headline and get a bit worried that halfway through the update you start checking the placement on the boat if you can give him his own table with four seats and how much it costs to switch to leather seats.
I like Gregg and think he often gets it very right.
Also picked up Bila Hora and wrote about it in today’s post, it becomes too large in scope so it becomes ineffective and the reason is that they didn’t come up at Ivanivske/Chasiv Yar (presumably).
The command had to try to encompass Chasiv Yar but it’s too big an arc that requires too many resources which they don’t have – and on top of that they will just crash into the next defense over there.
08:23 – MatsExtrude
I interpret Gregg a bit as if they have put themselves in a situation where it’s win or disappear (he himself mentions Mariupol).
Makes me wonder if they either waited too long to send reinforcements or waited too long to withdraw. It would be devastating for morale if the situation at Azovstal repeats itself. Even for Zelensky it could be tough, saw quite a few almost hateful posts against him on Twitter after people felt they had sacrificed the soldiers despite promising to come to their aid.
Now it seems like they have no room to maneuver left, there is only one way to go and that is to put in everything they have to hold the city. Unfortunately, that can cost a lot. On the other hand, as we’ve touched on, it would also cost enormously to have to retake it later and it has great symbolic significance.
Even if I may sound a bit pessimistic I share Johan No.1’s optimism regarding the outcome.
Bakhmut will not fall!
Slava Ukraina!
08:30 – Johan No.1
I bring it up in today’s post but even if the city means nothing for UA, which it doesn’t, it is a straw for the Russians to be able to show a win. I’m not well versed in the psychology of war but I guess Putin is searching high and low for something positive with this winter offensive and Bakhmut could work with a little makeup.
Then the VDV and Spetznaz up to their knees in mud in a field without close air support are easier to finish off than VDV and Spetznaz in well-prepared defense with anti-aircraft missiles and a fully loaded RPG rack on their backs.
Then we shall support UA to the win they consider they want and if that is to hold Bakhmut then we support that, and if they want to withdraw we applaud that.
09:31 – Johan No.1
With a reduced price for short dates, we reached 150,000 Russians in the potato fields by the end of February 2023. As Darth Putin usually writes – “I remain a master strategist, we are currently not advancing backwards”.
As it is written in the blog, yesterday an article appeared in YLE where a Finnish officer who trained Ukrainian soldiers completely trashed them.
Then the Finnish training leader and officer was certain that Russia would deploy nuclear weapons if Ukraine moved towards Crimea – because he knew that.
Then it was highlighted that Gregg was also in the article, which in some way was supposed to strengthen the officer’s view of Ukraine’s chances in the war – Gregg praised Ukraine and the impending victory over a whole page is probably good to clarify.
I took a pro-Ukrainian position as is appropriate in yesterday’s thread but only for that reason – I have very high regard for Finland and I hope no one leaks what I wrote to my Finnish (very old) coastal ranger colleague.
It is unfortunate when such credible sources as Finland – YLE – a Finnish officer run a pro-Russian hit-piece, it becomes difficult to shoot the messenger directly and it makes the rounds. A rather unusual mistake by Finland/YLE I must admit.
And absolutely nothing that should be circulated in the media.
Twitter rumor posted by Matsextrude in yesterday’s thread that Ukraine has gone on the offensive at the Southern front – the Opsec cover is in place so it is even more unconfirmed than completely unconfirmed, whatever that can be called?
Then another tweet from the Twitter gods that someone posted in the thread suggests that Russia will attack with 12,000 – 16,000 towards Orihiv and that it is half of the offensive reserve behind the Southern front.
Ukraine has also formally announced that they expect a Russian offensive at Zaporizhia.
That does not include Vuhledar and around 30,000 is probably a reasonable figure that I believe could be correct.
It is starting to get quite empty behind the southern front, take that with you!
That number includes the VDV reserve that Defmon cannot place.
We have discussed before that Russia on its own has made the impossible possible by pulling units from the Southern front to Vuhledar, Bakhmut, and northern Luhansk.
– messy to say the least, there is a high probability of a Russian offensive with what we know, they have fallen behind down there and Putin has a deadline until March 31.
I would not have guessed that Ukraine would go on the offensive there unless it is consolidation or possibly to relieve pressure on Bakhmut?
If it is the Azov thrust, the children’s trampoline goes up in smoke.
The ground still holds is my question – I think we have seen videos of very waterlogged terrain and the Accent man confirms that the ground’s bearing capacity prevents Russian armor from participating up in Bakhmut now?
Bakhmut Holds ✊
Opsec cover is also here.
What we know from Gregg is that Ukraine is taking terrible losses there and every day you really want this sh1t war to end 😬
Now the Russian team according to Gregg has thrown in even more capable reserves – I don’t know which unit but they are burning through their VDV and Spetsnaz (if it wasn’t a mistake in unit designations) very quickly here.
Yesterday it got uneasy when I mixed up the timestamp on Deepstatemap and Gregg’s first post and thought there had been heavy movement during the day yesterday and that the counterattack north of Bakhmut along road M03 had played out and failed – sorry for the relapse into pessimism and also completely self-inflicted because I am a technical desert. I think it was because Dengamle took a combat pause but now he is back again and order is restored. No cherry tomatoes.
Previously we had 6 VDV regiments that had taken losses and maybe also 3 Spetsnaz brigades fairly soon.
According to Gregg, additional units have arrived there and they must have come from somewhere – probably the Kreminna area.
Would be interesting to know which (relatively) elite unit it is.
Trying not to sound completely detached from reality when I write this – it is a bit of a chance to burn out the VDV and Spetsnaz here that will not come back (and I hear myself how that sounds so no one needs to write it…).
If Russia takes Bakhmut they calm down but until they do that they will continue to pump in the best they have (because they have done so so far!).
It is a chance that will not come back to decimate the VDV and Spetsnaz further and there is not much left of these endangered birds.
I understand that terrible numbers of Ukrainians are dying and wounded now and I am not moving pieces on a board but trying to state one of the values of the flytrap Bakhmut.
Then there is also a value in not having to retake the city in the spring.
You can be quite sure that the Russians are taking astronomical losses here, or we know that because they have just rotated out Wagner, to rotate out VDV, to rotate in Spetsnaz to finally rotate in something more – it goes lightning fast to reach half-life in Bakhmut right now.
That is also something Gregg confirms in yesterday’s rollercoaster posts.
Fedch posted an unconfirmed rumor that DPR confirmed Leo2 in Bakhmut. We thought the beta tests would be up in northern Luhansk because the ground holds but you can always beta test them in Bakhmut too? – unconfirmed as said and also a pro-Russian source.
I also see a morale boost advantage to show the soldiers on the active front that Western armor is now here and working.
A bit like when the USA joined WW2 😀
But then we have the situation on the ground and it naturally changes from day to day – today we can state that the city holds and that Ukraine is conducting counterattacks north of Bakhmut.
We know that Ukraine has withdrawn “behind” the river inside Bakhmut which is logical and that they have a few thousand left in the city. All rear, command and vehicles have probably already been moved out of the city.
As long as Chasiv Yar holds, Ukraine can actually nest through the forest north of Ivanivske at night, if Bohdanivka falls it is likely a trigger.
Then a tactical retreat is never as tactical as it sounds and being the rear guard in an encirclement is probably just about fun. You have to give the impression that the line is manned until the main force has withdrawn and then you have to make the best of the situation and some unit always gets stuck.