09:35 – MatsExtrude
Good point!
Russian women also participate but on a very small scale and only within healthcare (if you are to believe Konstantin / Inside Russia).
09:39 – Johan No.1
At least I am starting to have difficulty controlling the positivity here.
UA has completely played the Russians on the bench in Bakhmut – like one of my daughter’s basketball games against the Dolphins roughly, but there it is more of an immediate loss and then total outclassing for the rest of the game. In Bakhmut, there were some points of excitement for the Russians as well and then some points for inventive ways to die.
The fact that they have pulled a lot from northern Luhansk is a nuclear bomb warning on that news, General SpongeBob is sitting and scrutinizing Twitter for the next big scoop to get the acorns too.
Now you might have to wait and see what happens with the offensive that has just started but what really happened to the 360,000 soldiers, 1,800 tanks, 4,650 IFVs and all that other stuff because at least I had that as a highly reasonable number?
Yes, they lost 60,000 in January, +50,000 in February, and March looks just as bad, we must not forget that, and unfortunately, we don’t know when the figure 360,000 was from.
But there should be 250,000 + Wagner + LPR/DPR left. Then you probably have the barrier battalions on top of that but I don’t think the FSB, Ministry of Internal Affairs, and Kadyrov are ready to sacrifice them.
If they have been severely weakened in northern Luhansk, it absolutely does not add up to what SHOULD be left to storm across the fields with.
Yes, I understand that not everything is the spearhead and not everything is offensive capability here but still (only the media thinks the entire number is fighting to be at the very front).
Or maybe it was this simple (no evidence for it) – 40% of heavy vehicles are out of order in the rear.
In the personnel numbers, depot workers, airbase personnel, rear, etc. were included. They have 10,000 offensive reserves up at the northern border and have lost a hell of a lot to frostbite and general misery this winter.
As far as I know, Budanov has always talked about total numbers and where did the numbers about the armor actually come from, does anyone know what actually rolls in that circus?
I hardly think the Russians themselves have control over it if I am to be honest.
If you ask me, which you don’t because you already know the answer – this was Russia’s Ardennes offensive with incomprehensible losses and now they are finished as a (relatively) formidable opponent.
Why don’t they mobilize?
If you ask me again – they can’t because then there will be a revolution, a million angry Russians with Kalashnikovs is a bigger threat to Putin than it is to Ukraine.
What happens next during March –
Apparently nothing at all up in northern Luhansk which is very surprising, a defensive position along the Oskil river was tactically smart and logical so that can only mean they have had to prioritize away up there. The ground still holds and the superiority was overwhelming.
Bakhmut – fighting inside the city of Bakhmut and possible local counteroffensive just because UA can.
Donetsk area – seems to be starting to slow down a bit?
Vuhledar – Shoigu was there and if they get the units going there must be an offensive when the defense minister has been there with a pep talk?
Southern front – if they do as Putin says they have to attack now in March, otherwise they have taken command over their own lives here which is significant.
What does UA do in March – should be a beta test of Western armor up in northern Luhansk pretty soon according to earlier, I expect it every morning after going through Erik14’s night shift and get equally disappointed every morning.
The Accent man made me look at the weather and don’t forget it’s a La Nina year. It seems like the second half of March will be dry?
Then maybe the ground will hold before mid-April this year?
One thing we can be absolutely damn sure of – as soon as the ground holds it will be very lively for Russians in the ditch when combined arms warfare is unleashed from its cage and sees the Russian red tape on arms and helmet.
Everything is basically deployed now (soon), the units are getting tired of their repetitive exercises and brigade-division-army commanders probably know their wargames by heart by now – UA comes very well prepared for their spring offensive.
The Russian chaos team has barely recovered from their catastrophic winter offensive when it starts and the soldiers are still struggling with their basic soldier skills when Ukraine rolls over them. They die knowing they had not left the weapon by a tree and that the chinstrap was tightened.
There is another aspect to this – you remember the nuclear bombs and the message they sent to Russia and China.
If UA carries out a roaring offensive with extra everything and cuts through Russian defense like a rusty samovar it sends a very strong signal to China.
If UA can do this, what then can the whole NATO achieve. Russia gets the message delivered more directly in the face and the risk of misunderstanding is low.
It is not too often NATO’s capacity is tested and leveling the Russian army with the ground is a full test and NATO has solved it with some training and materiel.
My God what a mess Putin has gotten himself into all on his own. Since the Russian army and the Russian dictatorship have always acted like this it is very positive to see that they finally get really thoroughly beaten.
The Accent man was posted in yesterday’s thread by several lights about the miracle at Vuhledar and I can recommend everyone to watch it. I think someone should send the link to the Finnish officer who cut the Ukrainian army down to size because this was smart warfare and a crushing defeat for the Russians.
Earlier we learned that they mixed mines to fool the mine rollers so they were knocked out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cmnaxoEq5c
I have almost as much faith in the Accent man as I do in the Ukrainian army.
Now we were going to look at Avdiivka, UA has elite units in defense.
RY has predominantly DPR and LPR units in the area except for two motorized brigades – low level.
For the northern extent there is very beautiful dominating and channeling terrain and good defensive positions.
They seem to be up and sniffing at Krasnohorivka and as long as that community’s bulwark holds against the hordes of unchristian barbarians it is probably safe (sounded dramatic).
Then there is dominating terrain around and an armored brigade in the vicinity whose tanks have +3km range with explosive or APFSDS.
If they take over the community it will probably be a bit of a sharp situation but with an armored and a mech brigade north of that should be able to clear it if UA considers the cost-benefit worth it?
Then a little telegraph to Dengamle and you others who withdrew from all the quarrels – consider diving back in so you don’t miss the whole resolution because it’s not many months away now.
Bodanov has promised a victory by this summer in the latest email I received from him and that it will really kick off quite soon. He had an animated gif with one of Muhammad Ali’s knockout punches at the bottom of the email followed by a yellow happy face and a thumbs up.
Dipping the Friday chips deep and spilling the cheapest beer on your lap is not the same without you even though Erik14 holds the fort very well and the dip bowl is deep 😀
Then there is another problem that I have to start keeping track of boat places so I need confirmation soon on participation (one of my better attempts I think).
All the sour comments about free fantasies, daydreaming, incompetence and that one is not at all as old as one appears and that one is psychotic are probably best met with – how can Johan No.1 who is a parent of small children and chips his way through Friday evenings be completely blind and fail to read the thread from a font change in the comment section?
The point of the whole exercise is a good tone and a positive debate climate where we support Ukraine and try to get as accurate a daily picture of the war as possible, and for the archive (the quick-footed realize that over-optimism and accuracy do not go together but it is to support Ukraine and I try to be open about that) – it’s about time to cheer Ukraine on to a smashing victory soon 😀
09:46 – Johan No.1
From what has been seen, one can probably suspect what will happen to them?
09:48 – Johan No.1
The population pyramid has probably been checked a couple of times and not much more if you consider fighting age and then who has fled the country – about a million left immediately when mobilization was mentioned.
Then the Russians throw in 60-year-olds with osteoarthritis over the fields so that might not be entirely accurate.
As far as I know, we have not mentioned the Ukrainian women in this context and from what we have seen, Russians in trenches should also be afraid of them.
10:12 – MatsExtrude
+100
Northern Luhansk is a mystery. They probably simply do not have the capacity to achieve anything of value up there. It might be that they are waiting for the right moment. When Ukraine goes on the offensive, they might choose to speed up so that Ukraine has to take countermeasures. I think your wish to test Western armor there would also be good to see if the Russians actually have anything to oppose or not.
Regarding mobilization. Putin has said that conscripts and reserves will not be sent to Ukraine. That might be correct right now but he said in the spring that there would be no mobilization but there was anyway.
When Ukraine launches the spring offensive, it is not impossible that he changes his mind.
He must start realizing that he has to do something but he seems not to dare make any decision. Maybe it has turned out there are bigger internal cracks that we do not know about and that it would actually become chaos if he mobilized (or declared war). Otherwise, I thought he would have had time now to indoctrinate half the population and scare the other half into silence.
As long as he is passive it is positive and even if he made a decision now it is too late.
10:24 – Johan No.1
They want to hide information about the Quran burnings, I find that interesting.
Why doesn’t Paludan want to take all the credit himself?
This one is just stupid though, doesn’t everyone have a hole puncher?
“According to Tele2, their invoices do not look like the one that man shows, with punched holes along one side.
“I have received confirmation that we do not have holes in the invoices,” writes Tele2’s communications manager Fredrik Hallstan in a text message.”
10:31 – Johan No.1
Look here, against the Russian infantry in Bakhmut, Ukraine now has a tank 👍
https://twitter.com/FriaUkraina/status/1633224854798204930?s=20
10:37 – Johan No.1
Very good 👍
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1633371048325292034?s=46&t=-Zy0IzrCM8z8uosVJIaSyg
11:00 – MatsExtrude
If they actually tried to take back the occupied areas, I would like to see Putin’s face when he finds out.. Some risk that he would need a diaper change after that.
11:51 – Johan No.1
Tankfree – that was actually not directed at you in any way but was a serious attempt to get back a bunch of thread participants who have left because they got tired.
I just brought up all the invectives that have been thrown around and the purpose was absolutely not to bait you into a discussion because I have some experience of how they usually end.
So if I somehow started today’s discussion, I fully back down on that and we end here after just one round of invectives which can still be considered quite tidy and good tone 👍
12:17 – Johan No.1
When the Russians went and killed their best units this winter, Ukraine has been busy with other things.
https://twitter.com/friaukraina/status/1633403964396908545?s=46&t=-Zy0IzrCM8z8uosVJIaSyg
12:21 – Johan No.1
There were too many good comments to answer, a positive morning as it should be, nice that it is read and discussed 😀
12:25 – MatsExtrude
Congratulations on a fine silver medal!
13:01 – Johan No.1
Hello Alandisland,
Just saw your comment now, it was bad of me to write nationality really and I came up with it entirely on my own 😀
What made me jump on him was because it was done by YLE and became a big Russian psyops thing so I have a bad eye on him because I KNOW he is not telling the truth. If the article had said he trained newly recruited territorial troops, I would not have reacted at all. Then he was certain that the Russians would use nuclear weapons if UA went towards Crimea – he has no idea about that and YLE let it through without nuance.
When I have discussed it before, I have been clear that it does not concern Finland, I am very well aware of what Finland has gone through and have very high regard for Finland.
I am not of this noble stock myself but when I was little there were grandparents of friends who used to start talking after a smoothie (mostly the grandfather) and the fact is that among the most highly valued books on the bookshelf we find Väinöö Linna’s trilogy and then the outsider Unknown Soldier.
I will think twice in the future and I hope this version of the apology can be accepted 👍
13:56 – Johan No.1
This is Slava (PRO-RUSSIAN) and it is posted because it is hysterically funny.
Luka has to do something so a KGB operative goes into a random house and then they send in a KGB group that arrests him and zip-ties him without a shirt, and then he comes out with a shirt on.
-completely staged and is probably the only thing Luka can do in this total Mainstay humiliation.
14:07 – MatsExtrude
🙂
About as credible as that (Russian) video where they clear a basement and the cameraman is already inside the house…
09:31 – Johan No.1
When we have the eternal discussion about the number of potential Russian soldiers and the number of potential Russian soldiers and that Russia has so many more.
Have we in that discussion counted all Ukrainian women of military age?
If not, shouldn’t we add them and then see how the distribution looks?