Took a look at old posts and it was almost exactly two weeks ago that I misinterpreted Gregg’s post that the counterattack failed N of Bakhmut and then they flooded Bakhmutka to stop Wagner the next day.
Running the timeline on Deepstatemap, the Russians have continuously taken terrain in S, N, and E Bakhmut over the last 10 days or so and they are past Bakhmutka everywhere it seems now if the “gray” area is contested?
-This reasonably means that the delaying battle for the city of Bakhmut itself is in full swing and according to previous discussion, a delaying battle is conducted by gradually retreating and the battle ends when reaching the W end of the city.
Now that does not necessarily mean that the Russians are pushing UA out of the city but that chain of events has started at least and it CAN lead to UA withdrawing from the city at a time of their choosing.
UA has “forced” the Russians into urban combat, units have been rotated out and units skilled in urban combat have been rotated in.
They have continued to hold out N and S of Bakhmut even though Dubovo-Vasylivka has apparently been abandoned.
The window for nestling is still open it seems on the map (snipers moving 2km across the fields to Ivanivske at night under cover of the forest belts along the roads).
It is never fun to be the rear guard and some platoon always fails to withdraw.
We will then see videos of those executed when captured and pro-Russian debaters will rejoice over all the death. It is also likely that not all previously deceased have been recovered and that they will lie in some basement so those videos will also circulate to the great delight of pro-Russians over even more death. Apparently pro-Russians like death the most.
I think the defense of Bakhmut has already fulfilled its purpose today – the Russians have pulled units from northern Luhansk so that area is weakened, VDV, Spetsnaz (if I have not misunderstood unit insignia) and “real Wagner” are decimated in the battle for Bakhmut.
The official Ukrainian figure was, if I understood correctly, 1:7 in losses and those are soldiers one would face in about a month in their spring offensive, and then it would have been their turn to go on defense.
Now UA has a new defensive line anchored in Chasiv Yar but if one guesses, there will be a pause in fighting IF the city of Bakhmut is taken. The question is probably whether Wagner can be restarted at all after this.
I think it has been an excellent defensive battle from Ukraine’s side where they have been in full control the whole time.
I know there is quite an extensive discussion among highly credible pro-Ukrainian debaters that the command is hated by all soldiers for how incompetently they have managed the defense of Bakhmut and so on – lives sacrificed completely unnecessarily.
We know today that if Mariupol had fallen, the Russians would have continued up towards Zaporizhzhia and taken crossings over the Dnipro as many as they could manage. Early in the war there was talk of a column with 200 tanks, marine infantry and TOS-1 moving east towards Mariupol. Had that column continued straight north in an area where UA was weak, the war might have ended completely differently?
When history is written, we will know if the Ukrainian command was completely incompetent or if there was a (hidden) purpose in defending Bakhmut as long as they have. So far Ukraine has fought very smartly and it would be a deviation if they sacrificed offensive reserves in Bakhmut just not to lose the airplane monument.
Then I have an opinion about sitting in the middle of an ongoing war with your social platform that reaches quite far and your very good reputation and sowing doubt about the competence of the Ukrainian command.
There is one thing that can collapse everything overnight and that is if morale fails, the guy flipping the coin in the trench kept up the pace because he could handle it mentally. His comrade who handled the loading had far from the same drive. The pro-Russians work overtime trying to achieve that every day, and our media (not these debaters!) sometimes unwittingly plays along after a whole year of war.
Now morale will not fail but if you have a large platform and a good reputation, at least I think you can wait with criticism until after the war.
There are endless tragedies that have played out during this war and many mistakes are made but none of them are Ukraine’s fault, it is not the soldiers’ fault, it is not the command’s fault and it is not Zelensky’s fault.
It is all the Russian dictatorship’s and the hypno-pad’s fault.
If the Russians have weakened themselves elsewhere, Ukraine is usually not slow to exploit it but otherwise, I guess you wait until the ground can bear again?
It was brought up this morning in yesterday’s thread that the weather in the second half is good and Accentman has also mentioned it – as soon as the ground bears, there will be an offensive is probably many experts’ favorite guess.
There is another very fun plot twist to this and that is that IF Prigozhin can post a video of himself in central Bakhmut then the Russian army will feel diminished and try to create their own Bakhmut at Soledar, Avdiivka or Zaporizhzhia. With a bit of luck, full speed continues during March here and they continue to die for absolutely nothing.
You really want this sh1t war to end every day but it won’t unless Ukraine forcibly uproots the Russians and throws them out of the country.
The bubble list is fun to discuss but it is just that, a bubble list.
I believe Ukraine is very well aware that if they do not achieve anything with their spring offensive there is a real risk that Western support will cool off, materiel must come continuously because the burn rate is enormous.
Cost – benefit can be seen in many different ways but if you take heavy losses in a spring offensive or significantly heavier losses over several more years of war, the choice is actually quite simple. Breaking through the defensive lines must be done and it will be done.
I don’t have the full picture clear about Izyum when they tore a hole in the flank and broke through, but the area was mined and there were decent units in defense. It was probably a beta test and then they have been training units all autumn and all winter and supplying the right equipment.
13:37
Took a look at old posts and it was almost exactly two weeks ago that I misinterpreted Gregg’s post that the counterattack failed N of Bakhmut and then they flooded Bakhmutka to stop Wagner the next day.
That was when it started to look serious.
According to the video below from March 9, Wagner has managed to get into the industrial area in NE Bakhmut. Then they are “inside” Bakhmutka.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1634313839339503623?s=46&t=41dpPNyHZPnQ-OIDtO9CUA
Running the timeline on Deepstatemap, the Russians have continuously taken terrain in S, N, and E Bakhmut over the last 10 days or so and they are past Bakhmutka everywhere it seems now if the “gray” area is contested?
-This reasonably means that the delaying battle for the city of Bakhmut itself is in full swing and according to previous discussion, a delaying battle is conducted by gradually retreating and the battle ends when reaching the W end of the city.
Now that does not necessarily mean that the Russians are pushing UA out of the city but that chain of events has started at least and it CAN lead to UA withdrawing from the city at a time of their choosing.
UA has “forced” the Russians into urban combat, units have been rotated out and units skilled in urban combat have been rotated in.
They have continued to hold out N and S of Bakhmut even though Dubovo-Vasylivka has apparently been abandoned.
The window for nestling is still open it seems on the map (snipers moving 2km across the fields to Ivanivske at night under cover of the forest belts along the roads).
It is never fun to be the rear guard and some platoon always fails to withdraw.
We will then see videos of those executed when captured and pro-Russian debaters will rejoice over all the death. It is also likely that not all previously deceased have been recovered and that they will lie in some basement so those videos will also circulate to the great delight of pro-Russians over even more death. Apparently pro-Russians like death the most.
I think the defense of Bakhmut has already fulfilled its purpose today – the Russians have pulled units from northern Luhansk so that area is weakened, VDV, Spetsnaz (if I have not misunderstood unit insignia) and “real Wagner” are decimated in the battle for Bakhmut.
The official Ukrainian figure was, if I understood correctly, 1:7 in losses and those are soldiers one would face in about a month in their spring offensive, and then it would have been their turn to go on defense.
Now UA has a new defensive line anchored in Chasiv Yar but if one guesses, there will be a pause in fighting IF the city of Bakhmut is taken. The question is probably whether Wagner can be restarted at all after this.
I think it has been an excellent defensive battle from Ukraine’s side where they have been in full control the whole time.
I know there is quite an extensive discussion among highly credible pro-Ukrainian debaters that the command is hated by all soldiers for how incompetently they have managed the defense of Bakhmut and so on – lives sacrificed completely unnecessarily.
We know today that if Mariupol had fallen, the Russians would have continued up towards Zaporizhzhia and taken crossings over the Dnipro as many as they could manage. Early in the war there was talk of a column with 200 tanks, marine infantry and TOS-1 moving east towards Mariupol. Had that column continued straight north in an area where UA was weak, the war might have ended completely differently?
When history is written, we will know if the Ukrainian command was completely incompetent or if there was a (hidden) purpose in defending Bakhmut as long as they have. So far Ukraine has fought very smartly and it would be a deviation if they sacrificed offensive reserves in Bakhmut just not to lose the airplane monument.
Then I have an opinion about sitting in the middle of an ongoing war with your social platform that reaches quite far and your very good reputation and sowing doubt about the competence of the Ukrainian command.
There is one thing that can collapse everything overnight and that is if morale fails, the guy flipping the coin in the trench kept up the pace because he could handle it mentally. His comrade who handled the loading had far from the same drive. The pro-Russians work overtime trying to achieve that every day, and our media (not these debaters!) sometimes unwittingly plays along after a whole year of war.
Now morale will not fail but if you have a large platform and a good reputation, at least I think you can wait with criticism until after the war.
There are endless tragedies that have played out during this war and many mistakes are made but none of them are Ukraine’s fault, it is not the soldiers’ fault, it is not the command’s fault and it is not Zelensky’s fault.
It is all the Russian dictatorship’s and the hypno-pad’s fault.
If the Russians have weakened themselves elsewhere, Ukraine is usually not slow to exploit it but otherwise, I guess you wait until the ground can bear again?
It was brought up this morning in yesterday’s thread that the weather in the second half is good and Accentman has also mentioned it – as soon as the ground bears, there will be an offensive is probably many experts’ favorite guess.
There is another very fun plot twist to this and that is that IF Prigozhin can post a video of himself in central Bakhmut then the Russian army will feel diminished and try to create their own Bakhmut at Soledar, Avdiivka or Zaporizhzhia. With a bit of luck, full speed continues during March here and they continue to die for absolutely nothing.
This one was probably up but they use JDAM on concentrated targets, here they seem to have a pause in a house in Bakhmut which ends badly for them, what an enormous blast.
https://twitter.com/rammstein_fella/status/1634265925984591872?s=46&t=41dpPNyHZPnQ-OIDtO9CUA
Here you have the German bridge layers we discussed earlier, looks good for crossing tank ditches.
https://twitter.com/sonjaeftimovska/status/1634048806017744901?s=46&t=41dpPNyHZPnQ-OIDtO9CUA
There are many videos of the fallen now circulating and this one is very strong, modern, of the executed Ukrainian soldier who ended with a slava ukraini, I saw the video myself in the feed.
https://twitter.com/ronzheimer/status/1633939855951511552?s=46&t=41dpPNyHZPnQ-OIDtO9CUA
Or this one, father and son fell on the same day.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1634310381689511939?s=20
You really want this sh1t war to end every day but it won’t unless Ukraine forcibly uproots the Russians and throws them out of the country.
The bubble list is fun to discuss but it is just that, a bubble list.
I believe Ukraine is very well aware that if they do not achieve anything with their spring offensive there is a real risk that Western support will cool off, materiel must come continuously because the burn rate is enormous.
Cost – benefit can be seen in many different ways but if you take heavy losses in a spring offensive or significantly heavier losses over several more years of war, the choice is actually quite simple. Breaking through the defensive lines must be done and it will be done.
I don’t have the full picture clear about Izyum when they tore a hole in the flank and broke through, but the area was mined and there were decent units in defense. It was probably a beta test and then they have been training units all autumn and all winter and supplying the right equipment.
Ending with this, the motivation is sky-high, Crimea next.
https://twitter.com/macergifford/status/1634218788848541696?s=46&t=41dpPNyHZPnQ-OIDtO9CUA