12:28 – Johan No.1
Late comment but it got stuck in the filter if you would have time to open it up sometime LW?
Don’t know what upset WordPress this time 😀
17:09 – MatsExtrude
+1 Thanks finally, it was much awaited. Lovely positive as usual!
Prigozhin is a bit interesting, wondering how his setup really looks in relation to Putin. Will ponder that later but I suspect Putin might actually be ready to invite him for tea.
17:12 – Johan No.1
Managed to sneak away with a beer and when scrolling through the thread this day seems to be one of the worst ever for the Russian chaos team, there’s explosions everywhere 😀
Then I see that Erik14 has gone all-in to lower my kill-count (or 2:1), whoever is persuading him to these misdeeds, I find you, alternatively I double the offer 👍
The worst part is that I reluctantly have to admit that it looks completely right, a torpedoed optimist 😭
Then one must congratulate Igor on his own air defense system, after all wars the population usually hides some weapons in barns but this will probably be a whole new scale since the farmers have both tanks, artillery and air defense in presumably working condition.
17:14 – Johan No.1
At the same time as Prigozhin cries his way through the Telegram threads, Wagner has opened recruitment offices in 42 cities.
Almost makes you wonder if he is thinking beyond the Ukraine war in his ambitions.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1634219697213169665?s=20
17:23 – MatsExtrude
Getting worried, didn’t you find any chips?
The Ukrainian farmers have proven to manage well with just tractors, now they will probably become completely deadly!
17:25 – Johan No.1
This thing about Defmon’s maps disappearing, there are fewer and fewer unit maps and for the Russian team he has been quite central for a while. One hopes he will open up his maps again. Sometimes people complain about some brigade he missed but when the whole map disappears you understand what work he does in the background because then it’s like turning off the lights and putting smoke on at the same time.
17:26 – Johan No.1
We have chips, we have dip and we have beer 👍
18:15 – MatsExtrude
Good to hear!
18:17 – MatsExtrude
Maybe like I’m thinking. Putin might not want/can’t get rid of him..
19:03 – Johan No.1
I have a hard time letting go of those 9 minutes with the trench-flipper bullet.
There is an elegant difference between being ready to die for your cause and being impossible to kill and that is a trait you probably can’t teach. It’s there at the core and then you build on with soldier skills. If you find that in “ordinary” mechanized troops it’s probably not uncommon in the Ukrainian army and probably explains quite a lot why it has gone so badly for the shiny imperialistic Russian army with its three-day operation.
That was the Russians’ best, +10 with two IFVs against two admittedly very well-armed but still quite lonely soldiers.
That basic skill seems to appear from time to time in the most unexpected wars – a neighboring country eastwards, Vietnamese, Israelis and now the Ukrainians join this rather exclusive club and definitely a medal spot.
12:27 – Johan No.1
I think it is reasonable that the Russians have shown all their cards, they have increased the pressure as much as they could and Ukraine just shrugs (for effect…).
Yesterday someone summed up the cost of the missiles (yes, stockpiles…) and it was over half a billion – for that amount they got a few hours of power outages.
A bit like in one of those youth karate movies where the bad side performed all their katas in the air in front of the hero who stands yawning, and then there was a really hard kick with the bad side lying flat.
Same with the winter offensive, they have invested everything they could and Ukraine has held back its offensive reserves all the time.
Even China understands where this is heading, otherwise they would probably have used the whole palette of threats of offensive support and the old classic that UA should give up some land for peace in our time, but now they didn’t do just that.
The bubble list is starting to look like the board in one of those advanced math lessons at university. If you amused yourself with something else for 10 minutes it was impossible to figure out where it started and ended – there are arrows in all directions and almost every word is circled and underlined – it’s starting to feel like anything can happen on that list now.
Off-Topic – I find GeneralSVR interesting because it is “someone” who spends a lot of time on a Qanon-style psyops, we know it is 100% false but that does not detract from the fact that quite a lot of resources are put into it by “someone” and that this someone tries not to be pro-Russian (which of course they are). It will be fun to see how it handles possible power shifts going forward.
The subject of wild speculation –
A lot is flying around about Wagner now and in the latest crying-out message from Prigozhin apparently the combat leadership refuses contact and no one above them cares when he tries to go over them. This was a guy who got to bask in Putin’s glory not so long ago, one should remember.
The problem according to the crying prima donna is that they don’t get enough ammunition, which I think is starting to crystallize into meaning that the Russian army has a general shortage of ammunition of most calibers.
Prigozhin is something because he has Wagner – after all this it is probably close at hand that he will not sacrifice his last units but try to find a sanctuary for himself and them since he reasonably also understands that they are currently being sacrificed to be eliminated?
The Russian army also didn’t want them to succeed in taking Bakhmut so there is no chance of redemption either, presumably?
He and Wagner are out of favor because they have succeeded better than the army and because Prigozhin has started to get media space. He could probably have handled it a bit better as a person but his opponents have not read Sun Tzu and offer him no way out.
It has been suggested that he should fly to Africa with Wagner and find a sanctuary but how is he supposed to get there?
They are a terror-designated organization and he has to fly over NATO or somewhere else to get there and then it will be without heavy equipment.
Wagner has heavy vehicles, artillery and a damn air force.
Prigozhin also has no future at home in Russia, there is probably a reason he has started leading from the front behind many layers of Wagner soldiers 😀
Don’t you think it is more likely that Wagner offers its services to someone from somewhere?
Then it’s the same food and medium size mash can they are used to, if it becomes some kind of permanent solution it’s probably easier to sell it to the personnel than 35 years in CAR?
They first pull back to the bases in the darkest Donbass and then over to Kazakhstan or one of the other places?
We sat and laughed heartily at Wagner in the beginning but compared to the Russian army they have obviously managed to adapt tactically better and they have a (relatively) competent core that is not yet knocked out. It survives by sacrificing newly recruited.
Erik14 has reached the level of cliffhangers which is fun and yesterday it was ammunition shortage, it was hard to sit still that hour…
Gregg has touched on it and someone else in the thread found another source (same primary source?).
Then we have the rumor flying around that Iran is sending over small-caliber ammunition and a big denial that Russia doesn’t have 5.56 ammunition which was on the list so that must be fake but there were lots of other calibers they use.
(yes, I spent half an hour trying to find Russian weapons with 5.56 caliber…).
Something we have probably discussed before is that not all ammunition is artillery ammunition, right?
If a depot or a storage is hit it’s not just 152mm in that storage.
Same with UA ammunition shortage where everyone only talks about 155mm all the time.
If the Russians have ammunition shortage, which I think they do because of all the destroyed depots and wear on their vehicle fleet, they have problems at least getting the ammunition to fighting units and at worst they have to start digging into the most remote storages where the ammunition is either pilfered or in terrible condition.
Don’t forget that there are 500,000 in the “private armies” who need their ammunition for future territorial fights in Russia and they have probably secured what remains in western Russia one would guess?
Then I guess that when all those places got their liberation in the 90s there were probably quite a few depots that stayed with them just like with Ukraine and their Soviet ammunition. Down in the Caucasus the old Soviet border is actually those places so the depots should have been within their territory.
Now the list of why Putin demanded all-out war on January 6 is longer than my children’s Christmas lists but ammunition shortage is definitely on that list.
Some light in the thread thought it was probably just because Gerasimov wanted to show he could lead from the front and maybe I’m looking for too complicated explanatory models here.
However, for my part it is absolutely clear that Putin did not consider himself able to handle a long war and that they therefore went for a decisive outcome now in winter, and presumably because they are what they are they continue straight into the wall now in spring.
Then on to Erik14’s night shift where some Russian source claims that UA is preparing an offensive in Kherson – some light in the thread thinks that is why the AMX-10 is coming and according to earlier discussions a diversion over the Dnieper before starting the offensive on the southern front is probably not illogical.
The idea has been to cross over infantry in boats that take positions in lightly defended communities, there are some north of Khakovka, and then they go on defense behind their own artillery – and CAS umbrella and let the Russians attack themselves to death.
This was posted by Erik14 during the night shift and I think it illustrates the whole thing about dominant terrain and why we always run in and look at heights on the topo map as soon as the Russians attack.
In about 100% of the cases, the bulge is on Deepstatemap up to the dark red on the ortho map, and then you know that they are running around in the valley and Ukraine is throwing stones at their heads, so all the threatening stuff is just that on the map.
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1633943307050000388?s=20
The mafia muppet posted this from the fight in the trench at 9 minutes. I think it’s worth a repost in today’s thread since it came last night – good heavens.
We know the attacking party is at least VDV since they had extra everything in equipment.
We know the defenders were a mechanized brigade.
It’s 9 minutes of fire – movement – multitasking – keeping a cool head – reporting the situation – firing suppressive fire. On two occasions, the Russians are so close they are visible on camera.
I also think you can see the vehicle, but if he had shot it out with an RPG there should have been some cheering?
Don’t know if it’s first a BMP and then a BTR but I interpret it as 10 dismounted, which should be two vehicles they came in if so?
Then there is a trench system but clearly the attacking party has quite a big focus on their position because there is almost constant firing on the trench crest.
https://youtu.be/KN2eiTKLZDY
Here we have the Accent man posted by a light in yesterday’s thread, all credit to them.
https://youtu.be/NuYwwREjjWY
I only saw a depiction of absolute chaos – the units at Vuhledar refuse to attack, Shoigu is down there messing with the Vuhledar commander, Shoigu promises reinforcements, the Vuhledar commander promises to take Vuhledar, Ukraine knocks out many bases with reinforcements, Shoigu gets sour and sends in the Rosgvardia, and so it spins on.
If we are to start summing up some cracks here, we were supposed to watch out for such, I can see a couple –
– ammunition shortage in many calibers is so serious that units post calls on Telegram that they are not getting ammunition, it’s not just Wagner doing it.
– more and more units refuse death by not attacking.
– more and more units post calls on Telegram about the chaos and the untenable situation – seen all over Russia.
– Wagner is starting to get cold feet and that can possibly be seen at the front.
Then we have information that SBERbank’s profit has dropped by 80% and Erik14 considered that it was probably after creative accounting so sanctions definitely bite.
What I hope we will see quite soon is another completely pointless larger attack at Vuhledar or the southern front by the Russians because the whip is probably cracking right now and the command must show decisiveness or find a nearby country to seek asylum in.
Then Ukraine should exploit Wagner’s wavering at Bakhmut if it’s real and not just on social media, they are not exactly known for missing flying balls.
The best thing about all this is that it is happening before Ukraine’s spring offensive has even started, the Russians have achieved all this entirely on their own without Ukraine having to do more than hold the line.