12:54 – Johan No.1
UFA was wrong, it should have been grouping place, careless 👍
Now they are probably crossing fields and there are fields in three directions, if it is airports or vehicles etc. one should reasonably have marched on roads I thought or that there is something on the horizons in the form of buildings?
Then they usually move in companies but here it is clearly a larger movement in terrain from A to B, whatever B is?
They have a dog 😀
You basically only see the weapons of 20-30 soldiers but yes, no machine guns or RPGs there.
Yep, got carried away on that one 😀
14:03 – Johan No.1
Saw Zelensky’s speech posted in today’s blog, went straight in as always and every word hits.
The president has noticeably aged but that he also has the world’s best voice for fiery speeches does not make it worse, like Marlboro roughly.
15:22 – MatsExtrude
+100 #SpringIsComing!
15:26 – MatsExtrude
+1
15:55 – Johan No.1
+100
11:47 – Johan No.1
I’m a bit behind on updates and that’s because of a new job abroad for a change of scenery, you have to prove yourself for a while before figuring out the rhythm and being able to start on other things (work ethic zero, no need to write that 😀). If you feel it’s out of sync, that’s the reason, I’m not trying to steal credit or spotlight from anyone who has already posted the information below and I try to give full credit.
Need to remind that we’ve reached mid-April and that’s the date we agreed on several months ago that the ground would then hold, and that offensive operations could then begin?
Absolute Lions, there’s a lot one could write but I’ll do a dry analysis, posted by the blogger yesterday.
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1647309260387151875?s=46&t=WqviLiYWT5-i_p0IhhYvSA
-Ukrainian soldiers are, just like us, hoping for an offensive, victory, liberated land and we all understand how it feels to get a video like this in the feed – it signals strength and hope.
-Guess how it feels to join that movement…
-The Russian team everyone knows that UA is launching a spring offensive soon and when they see these videos they get stomach aches and pop more omeprazole – a highly demoralizing effect.
-The first group is more than a company so battalion?
-Then you have fewer numbers on the right but they have lateral spacing, another battalion?
-If you move two battalions it’s not unreasonable to say you’re moving a brigade.
-They have combat gear (if that’s not the term I mean backpacks), are on the move in the rear because they move without spacing – on their way to their UFA but behind the spearhead?
-You don’t let several battalions sleep under the open sky many nights if you don’t intend to do something because combat value drops quickly.
This is infantry – either they will load onto hard vehicles as extra infantry which we’ve seen many videos of or they follow the spearhead on foot.
If they had soft vehicles we would have seen them in soft vehicles – why have the vehicles in front and let them tire themselves out?
It tells me UA is putting everything into this spring offensive down to infantry on foot.
Earlier videos show platoon or at most company movements, often a mix of vehicles. This is bigger than that, they are moving quantity.
We wrote a few days ago about VDV and how they have been worn down and previously tried to estimate the offensive (relatively) capable reserve to +50,000 remaining. Since January 6, 2023, we’ve tried to figure out how much damage they’ve taken since they are the unit type that had some competence. Then we have Spetznaz on top of that but they are (were) nowhere near the same numbers.
The reason this is interesting we saw at the T-cross, they (apparently Wagner?) missed with the anti-tank missile and instead of firing their fifteen anti-tank shots they died curled up at the bottom of the pits – the newly mobilized are not prepared for this at all.
I think the term is tank panic (not to be confused with the Germans’ anti-tank weapons which are something tanks should fear)? – you become completely overwhelmed by the projected threat with both visual and auditory impressions and suffer panic. If you haven’t previously faced that threat and survived or trained away the reflex, the reaction is probably flight and you cease to be a soldier?
I’ve said it so many times it has probably become tiresome but in a mechanical case you try if possible to figure out where the enemy has cleared their firing zones and if you manage to break through (not too dense!) forest in an unexpected place it leads to running pretty fast. You have to be careful with the barrel.
The 150,000 soldiers remaining in September 2022 could handle the impressions in such a situation and function reasonably and now today this number is estimated down to maybe +50,000 (guesses).
We know that the 14th Spetznaz took heavy losses at Vuhledar, we know that Spetznaz fought up in Kreminna and I am probably the only one in the world who believes Spetznaz fought in Bakhmut – probably reluctantly backed down on that in the end.
It was up in the blog update a few days ago that several Spetznaz brigades have taken existential damage.
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1646800154878517252?s=20
Marine infantry are endangered birds, VDV are worn out and several Spetznaz brigades are wiped out – this is the Russians’ last offensive reserve that could stop Ukraine’s spring offensive and plug the breakthroughs.
They are seriously ragged and now we have Twitter god information that VDV is fighting in the built-up area in Bakhmut which means astronomical losses.
https://twitter.com/azovsouth/status/1646863025469550593?s=46&t=lE6e_WIbOn5WGc19NchHew
Gregg also writes in yesterday’s update that the “elite” has been deployed together with newly mobilized in Bakhmut – previously it was Wagner and VDV (and my Spetznaz who weren’t there…) and if they now deploy newly mobilized it might possibly signal that they’ve reached the end with VDV. For Bakhmut they absolutely want to take it and are investing heavily.
The only thing behind these relative elite units are agencies, private armies and PMCs. Erik14 recently posted that a new PMC was on the way to Bakhmut but it was in terms of “hundreds” – won’t make a difference.
The Russians demonstrably have fewer heavy weapons and ammunition shortages are on the brink of existential in some places one can guess.
One factor for the ammunition shortage is probably that the Russian team has never conserved ammunition before, their doctrine is to pour it on and then the poor training means they assume more fire towards the enemy is preferable and then the culture on top of that means they run until the belt is empty, then they’ve done their part and someone else has to solve getting more ammunition.
UA was like that at the start of the war but has managed to steer it to reasonable ammunition consumption I think we’ve seen.
Then what, two months, UA hits ammunition depots daily again and that probably contributes to the shortage. Just yesterday there were huge explosions behind the southern front both ammunition and troop concentrations.
And UA territorials now have tanks…
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1645861682051272714?s=20
Gregg writes that “the entire reserve is mobilized to these areas” (Bakhmut). Unfortunately, this cannot be interpreted at all but of course one hopes this is the end of the offensive reserve we see. The last VDV regiments with claw that now enter mined houses and die.
Gregg also writes that “regarding the offensive there is worrying news from our allies; they are trying to get us to accept that all the ground we can liberate during this offensive is ours, while what we cannot liberate falls to the tourists”.
We have previously written that it is highly reasonable that negotiations are ongoing behind the scenes and this is perhaps one alternative being raised (IF it is raised see below)?
Without knowing anything this feels very much like a Macron-China agreement IF there is truth in it.
I don’t think Germany has come up with this nor the USA or the JEF countries.
However, it is a rumor that the Ukrainians on the ground hear, and things like this are demoralizing. It could also be pure Russian psyops, or deliberate psyops from Gregg?
IF there is truth to it, it is more likely a trigger for a very violent UA offensive and a total Russian collapse. They now have a chance to go all in, and knowing UA by now, they will take that chance and account for the risk.
IF there is truth to it, that is probably why the Russians are fortifying Crimea – they hope to keep Crimea.
But… when I see the arms deliveries, I don’t get the feeling that this is on the table at all, actually.
They have resourced the UA spring offensive and continue to send offensive weapons and ammunition for offensives after that – the West has not stopped delivering at all, and a first signal that the West is getting cold feet would be fewer weapons to UA.
Then my money is on that when UA stands at the bridges to Crimea and the drone swarm, tungsten rain, and guided 155mm shells roll into Crimea accompanied by a countdown until the bridge is blown up (a week?) – then the Russians will rush east over the bridge as fast as they can and no one wants to be last.
I have never been more certain that RU will completely evacuate Crimea voluntarily than now, as long as the bridge is open for them; they already know that UA has the capability to cut it, it probably requires a drone swarm and tungsten rain first as well as a collapse of the front.
We hear some about surrenders now and that they are increasing – the second UA breaks through Russian defense and goes deep, the Russian units’ vicious circle breaks and they can give up without risk. I am starting to suspect that the bubble of mass surrender may have a grain of truth in it at least on individual front sections.
Those shown now in prisoner videos are in insanely bad condition, somewhat like how the soldiers looked in Kherson before they left there. According to Gregg, mobilized troops have been moved between several different front sections (I didn’t believe it…) and they have poor maintenance constantly.
That DPR and LPR will lay down arms at the right moment has Budanov already told us, so we know that – it’s on the bubble list. Seems to be just me and Budanov who believe in it though, but my conviction is purely religious 😀
We went through possible attack vectors about a month ago, right?
Some new observations on that –
The Russians seem to be getting weaker north and south of the city of Bakhmut, and UA is getting stronger there. For example, south of the Siversky Donets river, more UA units are being reinforced.
According to earlier, in this area one can move southeast and open a threat to the city of Luhansk. So they go south of (under) the Siversky Donets river.
Something that surprises me a bit is the armored brigade north of Kupiansk – it would be pretty funny if UA opens the spring offensive by going straight into Russia south of Belgorod…
What a sprint that would be for the Russians, and what a PR crash when the videos sweep over Telegram, but we probably won’t get that much fun.
Then all the marine infantry brigades have been pulled back, but Crimea is a bit too risky to land on, even the diagnosed positive Johan No.1 understands that. The fleet is not wiped out; there should be 50,000 down in Crimea, and as soon as the southern front collapses, 20,000 – 30,000 more will retreat down to Crimea.
(Kuwait Highway 3.0 maybe?).
My guess is landing in small boats (all the river boats delivered….) between Dnepr and Crimea while crossing the Dnepr and starting the Azov thrust – everyone understands that the Russians would not be able to defend in three directions, even on the best of days. The southern front will collapse quite quickly.
The four liberated villages at the southern front are all in the attack vector in the middle I think, high ground/dominant terrain.
Bakhmut – On Deepstatemap RU has crossed the railway and is pushing into the built-up area from the south.
We have seen the termite rains and now they are bombing fixed positions with Russian JDAMS, and against fixed positions they are unpleasant. They probably used that against Mariupol when it happened, but in Bakhmut, they probably don’t have nuclear bomb-proof bunkers?
Purely from a war-technical perspective, and now ignoring contested area and going by confirmed captured, the delaying battle (which we first wrote about in early March or was it mid-March) is approaching the west side of the city.
Now there are many Twitter rumors that RU is pressing with everything they have, and if they get a breakthrough for another week, it is probably time to abandon the built-up area; if they do not get a breakthrough, naturally UA will not abandon it.
Then they have fought a favorable delaying battle completely by the book, and we saw the signs quite early when they defended the flanks and there was movement in the built-up area – an excellently smart fight in my opinion.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1647175231545458688?s=20
Old school to say the least, I would have loved to have one like that actually. When we are on a project, we still run paper drawings on the wall with cumulative progress.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1646706975332335617?s=20
Pro-Russian propaganda film but what do we see?
Latest T90, the turret and sights do not move during the entire movement – the crew is not scanning the terrain.
They then stand still in the same place and shoot at a target for a long time.
It was probably a PR film but it tells us that the crew are beginners but the vehicle is the best they have – 1+1 does not equal two, it is just a rolling target.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1647257568891338752?s=20
Another bottleneck is apparently the gun barrel also in the middle of the sea of all the shortages the Russians have.
https://twitter.com/pati_marins64/status/1646387770426814464?s=20
I think UA can create serious anticipatory anxiety among Russians in the trenches with this type of equipment in the picture; they fill the trenches with Russians in their reinforced defenses – it will spread like wildfire.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1646535149209649152?s=20
Russian but a bit tough I have to admit, MTLB with ZU-23-2 is still probably the coolest combo 😀
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1646887175793909760?s=20
China continues with statements where they try to appear neutral. I think it is significant because they could have taken Russia’s side in the war and then claimed that if the West sends offensive weapons, they can do so too, for example, right?
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1646810274865766401?s=46&t=QS3bLALE8qBzloEuJ5YwnQ
They will always continue with trade and components to the Russians’ arms industry, but for the Russians to have a chance to come out alive from this, they need a diplomatic dragon and offensive weapons from China – they are not getting that because we have not seen Chinese offensive weapons at the fronts and if there had been hard negotiation proposals about ceding land or frozen fronts from China, we would have heard about it.
Right now, all lost artillery and special vehicles indicate that pre-battle preparations are underway as they should be.
In any case, I am waiting for a spring offensive, see no reason whatsoever to revise the end date for fighting in UA to sometime this summer, it stands well.
Some genius posted this yesterday, ending with more Lions.
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1647260543219032071?s=46&t=sU9yq1R8c2PSlmALJDn3UA
(a lot of signal politics with videos right now, I understand that some are from earlier but the purpose from UA is to boost morale and scare the Russians – that is why they are posted and then the dating is not central).
The Russian Easter might get a new meaning (now it is over so one should have written that on Friday…)?