2023-04-18

12:19 – Johan No.1

Absolute Lions ✊
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1640814248052891648?s=46&t=puX88cKnuRNGMpd5JnNCdQ

There are daily explosions in Mariupol and autonomous UAVs have been found here and there inside Russian territory, all the way up to some suburb south of Moscow.

In Belgorod, they are probably sent against transformer stations and similar targets, for example.
We know that Russia can’t handle anything and right now UA is probably beta-testing the Russian air defense against their drone swarms, one might guess.

They have bought parts for 100,000 drones from China through intermediaries, for example.
I see it as impossible that they wouldn’t have tens of thousands ready; drones are quite simple to build.

It takes very little to knock out Russia’s power grid, is my amateur guess, hundreds of autonomous drones against transformer stations and it will likely be dark for a month.

Everyone is looking forward to the UA spring offensive and the pre-battle preparations are in full swing, but it’s easy to forget all the other exciting things they will bring out when the time is right.

Sometimes we fall into the worries in the -stan countries and the republics, but there is much more.
In the country of Russia, several “liberation fronts” operate actively carrying out terrorist acts (liberation acts!). They carry out attacks on the railway, for example.

Then we have Ukrainian sabotage groups operating deep inside Russia.

Between these two groups, it’s hard to know who is constantly blowing up factories for critical manufacturing. A robot only works when 100% of the components are installed, and if you take out a key component factory, there will be no robots.

The same goes for aircraft, fuel, ammunition (maybe less), tanks, and other weapon platforms.
They are probably also blowing up depots in Russia where important materiel is stored.

The country of Russia is impossible to protect.
Russia has never had reason to protect itself because no one has attacked them, neither subversive activities nor in war.
They have kept their citizens under control with 500,000 in their agencies.

It is a completely new phenomenon for them to be attacked; the country is enormous and poorly organized, so it is likely impossible for them to protect themselves against terrorist acts (liberation acts!).

Budanov said something that made one sit down – “the one who murdered our XX will be punished, all Russian soldiers who have murdered prisoners before, as we have seen on video, are not alive today” – there you go, they seem to have both the ability and the will.

The important thing about retaking northern Luhansk is that then you can reach the N-S supply route inside Russian territory with long-range everything and SOF. You can completely cut off the supply to Donbass.

Now Rostov-na-Don is probably a pretty solid supply hub, so it won’t be empty overnight, but new tanks, other weapon platforms, and soldiers will also need to be transported from north to south going forward.

We rarely hear about explosions from there, but I have always thought that when it bangs heavily in Rostov-na-Don, it should also bang in Belgorod.

In Mariupol, Melitopol, Donetsk, Svatove, and pretty much everywhere RU gathers troops and materiel, there are daily explosions now.
Last time it happened, the Russians’ supply chains completely crashed and they had to abandon Kherson.

On some fronts, artillery stopped completely, and on average, artillery fire dropped by 70% over a period, according to CNN, I believe?

Now RU’s offensive operations are probably starting to slow down except in Bakhmut so they can start stockpiling ammunition again.

Then the roads will gradually start to support ammunition transports, which is also an advantage for RU.

So UA needs to find and destroy as many ammunition depots and storages as possible.

Now is probably the Russian low point, and when offensive operations fizzle out, they get force growth over time and can stockpile ammunition – therefore the timing is probably right for a UA spring offensive style around now, but various factors must coincide, the ground bearing capacity foremost.

Below is a small summary of what UA has received in materiel; not everything has probably landed yet, but they have received a lot.
What is interesting is that this is largely not from the West’s reserve stocks or top shelf.

If the West wants, they can send three times more of the best weapons going forward. Portugal, Spain, Belgium, UK, etc. don’t need hundreds of tanks each, for example.

– UA has received 185 bridge layers and mine clearers, that is a very large amount. Some other things in that category too, of course, but many.
– 125 radars, there you go.
– 2200 suicide drones…
– 43 aircraft.
– 100 MLRS
– 400 tracked howitzers
– 375 tube artillery.
– 2500 IMV (ptgb)
– 1100 MRAP
– 1600 APC (e.g. M113)
– 600 IFV
– 765 tanks

The West’s barns are deeper than the Russian horde’s barns, that’s just how it is.

If you remember the discussion about the armored brigade north of Kupiansk, I took another look yesterday at the unit maps and saw a whole bunch of new NG brigades around Kharkiv. The dream of the offensive towards Belgorod cannot be extinguished 😀

One of the misses was my guess about Russian trolling from Belarus or the northern front – it has been dead silent and that really surprises me but maybe fits well with the fact that they never got out of the starting blocks in northern Luhansk and have fundamentally failed everywhere else where they charged across the fields swinging sabers and died a miserable death.

It would be hysterically funny if UA ran that trolling instead, but we probably won’t get that lucky.
What do you not have to give up in Ukraine to defend Belgorod?

The attention the brigade movement got on social media paves the way for many more videos of many more brigades’ buildup in a galaxy near us very soon 👍

13:03 – MatsExtrude

Good as usual!

Would really like to see them move towards Belgorod.. It would cause total chaos for the Russians. The risk is, of course, that they might sacrifice all the aircraft they have to stop it.