2023-04-23

10:12 – Johan No.1

China has once again stated that they do not support Russia with weapons. Surely the Russians receive covert support, but they could have openly supported the Russians and started training programs and so on as the West has done – they have not.

The only way for the Russians to come out of this mess alive is if China either manages to negotiate a ceasefire or starts delivering offensive weapons and training in large quantities – we have seen none of that.

I always get harsh criticism for my “China has thrown Russia under the bus” statements, so I have to hide in the economic councils for a few days until I recover – so I won’t write that even though I still believe it.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1649112799400820738?s=20

Now that the baguette eater continues to embarrass himself, the Germans shine even more, no double game there – “completely okay that Ukraine strikes targets in Russia, we see no problem with that.” I am really surprised by the Germans’ turnaround here at the beginning of the year but it seems genuine and they have chosen a side – all honor to the Germans and fun to be named Van nowadays.

How much floor scrubbing and LHR they needed in the meeting rooms we will never know, but someone’s feathers were probably ruffled with a lot of excessive force.

Go Deutschland!
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1649311732181942274?s=46&t=iT-zaP1jVMCuu80OlTZV3g

Gregg wrote a few days ago what we usually guess – we will feel the tremors in the ground when the spring offensive begins.

However, I am starting to sense increased intensity in my coffee grounds and there are Twitter rumors about movements in areas where there was no previous activity – when do reconnaissance fights and positioning turn into an offensive? I’m parking April 19-21 for now and then we’ll see if the intensity suddenly shoots off like a spear or if it increases gradually.

I have bet two crates of beer – my choice – with a colleague that UA will win this summer, it will be a tough import for him when I want Mariestad (the premium segment for the electricity underclass…).

What do you think about the persistent rumor that UA has established a bridgehead at the Antonovsky Bridge now that ISW is putting its reputation on the line?

We have all seen the videos where they practice crossing the Dnipro, so Antonovsky doesn’t feel like the only crossing point. RU reportedly has 15,000 troops in that area, so any bridgehead is high risk.

How RU has not sent 15,000 troops to try to crush that bridgehead in its infancy is an absolute mystery to me and a positive one.

If they cross at a few more places, it will probably quickly become untenable for the circus director.

Marine infantry landings if they are outside the Dnipro along the coast are high risk since the navy is more or less intact, but you can always let them cross the Dnipro if the risk-reward is to UA’s disadvantage, and there are a hell of a lot of brigades on the western side of the Dnipro right now.

There are 3 marine infantry brigades, three mechanized, one armored, a couple of territorial and some more in the area, and if they get them across the Dnipro it’s unstoppable, then the southern front falls.

The defense is not prepared for crossing the Dnipro in the way it should be, almost all defensive lines run west-east against attacks from the north.
There is some defense against the Dnipro/east but it can be bypassed and then you are behind the entire southern front.

This fits well with Gregg’s rumor that RU will keep what UA does not capture in this offensive but with another twist – psyops against their own troops.
https://twitter.com/TreasChest/status/1649461081100763136?s=20

The ground seems to hold outside Bakhmut?
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1649357901423575040?s=46&t=ReGMkYTTEMzj749KWWUw1w

Ben Hodges guesses the battle plan
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1649365098920652800?s=46&t=ReGMkYTTEMzj749KWWUw1w

The West is now trying to big up Germany as much as possible and they really deserve it, Bratwurst for the world.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1649442910213926912?s=46&t=ReGMkYTTEMzj749KWWUw1w

Already in 2014, UA captured regular Russian army units if anyone thought the war started on February 24, 2023.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1649360764371648512?s=46&t=ReGMkYTTEMzj749KWWUw1w

USA begins training on Abrams – good signal politics
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1649367724642934785?s=46&t=ReGMkYTTEMzj749KWWUw1w

https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1649349793217388544?s=46&t=ReGMkYTTEMzj749KWWUw1w

It may very well happen that UA leaves the built-up areas in Bakhmut but that is not even a Pyrrhic victory, it is no victory at all.

RU has sent their last offensive reserves there and weakened everywhere else to achieve nothing.
Like a kamikaze pilot who never leaves the runway before pulling the bomb cord and dying.

It has been a terrible year but UA has risen and the lions have fought for over a year without faltering.

We are quite close to a Russian crushing defeat now – that’s what my coffee grounds say (ok it’s Budanov who emails that damn all the time so it almost gets annoying with his thumbs up and laughing emojis but coffee grounds sound more mystical).

The lions have defended Bakhmut, Avdiivka, northern Luhansk and other key positions while increasing their offensive reserves by several divisions.

In northern Luhansk there was a thin picket line against the Russian hordes and there was never a breakthrough – this war’s great mystery.

The Ukrainian infantry is indisputably the world’s best, we grew up with stories of the Finnish soldiers who fell in their snow suits behind piles of spent cartridges at Taipale and Suomussalmi. The Ukrainian lions have mobilized from their villages and suburbs to front sections whose intensity the world has not seen since World War II and they have been prepared to make the greatest sacrifice for their country and their people – sons have fallen in the tens of thousands defending their country.

They were just like us teachers, carpenters, high school students, concrete workers or engineers – pretty lazy and joyful about life and then overnight they are in places where survival is decided by chance.

It’s really impossible to paint this fairly, the Ukrainian people rose as one and took the full hit – they have done it without faltering every day for over a year.

Western SOF who sought out Ukraine as volunteers often went home because they realized it was Russian roulette every day and that survival was a chance that could not be influenced. The Ukrainian infantry did not have that option – they had to keep playing.

Going from the will to live to being ready to die is a very big and difficult step. Imagine when your battalion has been in combat, gone into rest and then must return to Bakhmut or Avdiivka again – you have accepted your fate, WhatsApped your family and said goodbye to the children without them really understanding because it was impossible to explain that you have to go back again, month after month.

Lions ✊
(this was written in a cloud of whiskey, worse beer and apparently Broder Daniel – sh1tland to work in, long live Ukraine).

Death to the Slime Gnome ✊

#Springiscoming

#Putindinglandesienbensinmack

15:26 – MatsExtrude

👍