12:35 – Johan No.1
Almost took the criticism in the introduction personally 😀
A couple of short points –
That Kherson was not a victory because the Russians got away is probably not correct?
Ukraine achieved a victory because they put the Russians in a position where they had to abandon Kherson.
Kherson was defended by almost the entire VDV and had a defense prepared by the VDV themselves with sufficient ammunition.
Now today the defense lines have been prepared by all sorts of people down to civilian contractors who do not understand defensive fighting and sometimes the trenches lie in depressions.
Then we must not forget Davyidiv Brid which forced the VDV to go up over the fields to meet UA and they took losses there.
VDV, Spetznaz, reconnaissance, and marine infantry are terribly decimated.
In September it was a relatively well-preserved VDV fighting in Kherson.
The remaining Russian units today are below the number they had in September 2022, maybe a bit over 50,000 experienced units and the rest are newly mobilized.
In September 2022, Ukraine’s mobilization, training, and new equipment had not been completed and they fought with what they had (because the West did not deliver).
Ukraine today is much stronger than September 2022.
Russia on the ground in Ukraine today is much weaker than September 2022.
In autumn 2022 Russia lost – Kherson, Izyum, and a part of northern Luhansk before a panic mobilization stabilized the situation.
To preempt UA’s winter offensive, the Russians attacked instead, they bought time at the cost of lives (my guess).
I see the point of trying to be balanced BUT the Western weapons did not come because everyone was balanced, they came when those who saw UA winning the war began to figure out how to make their voices heard. The whole world thought Russia would get a quick win and no one wanted to give their tanks to a country that was soon to lose.
I question this – “No matter how well Ukraine has fought so far, there are good reasons to doubt that they have such capability in sufficient extent.”
-The offensive commanders have been disconnected from defense and trained in the West since last autumn.
-The offensive soldiers have at various stages been disconnected from the war and some have been trained since last autumn.
-UA has received breakthrough material in INCREDIBLE quantities, read Oxy for that summary.
-UA army has full combat experience.
If the USA managed it and it was managed during World War II, why wouldn’t UA manage it?
It has been done before.
Then I consider it already established that since the Home Guard (territorial) now has BMP-1 and T62 (was it?) in some units, there are enough heavy vehicles.
For example, 2,500 ATGMs have been delivered, again check Oxy on what has been delivered and what has been captured and can be repaired.
”After a year of war, even the best personnel are largely depleted. Experienced soldiers have been replaced by mobilized recruits, who demonstrably have high morale but lack training and previous experience.”
This is subjective depending on whether one believes what we know about UA losses or not. Maybe 50,000 killed and a couple hundred thousand wounded, with 85% returning to active service, is what I believe.
They have 100 brigades in total and a system where new recruits or units move forward along the lines as they gain combat experience. They have leaves, they rotate one battalion per brigade in the active front, and so on – all to manage losses and gain maximum experience.
Then some brigades are unlucky enough to be in the worst places, Bakhmut, Severodonetsk, Mariupol, and so on, where they have been decimated terribly.
As I said, subjective depending on what one chooses to believe.
Then I completely agree that the West has dragged its feet and not donated enough, agreed 👍
13:07 – MatsExtrude
+100
Tell your “friend” to keep that Blue and Yellow boat, it will be needed when we have to get up along the Dnieper! You can’t just chug along with some Finland ferry there if we want to take a closer look at all the important places.
#SpringIsHere
13:26 – Johan No.1
Here’s someone who is Friday-positive I see 😀
Just reading it made me really upbeat.
13:38 – Johan No.1
In this information vacuum where there isn’t much to latch onto, I can report that I’m trying to introduce an old-fashioned English Friday pub here and it seems it might work.
When I worked in England for a couple of years as an engineer, we went out on Fridays from 1:00 PM to 2:30 PM (had to book it as work time) and knocked back 4-5 pints if you were cool, I probably managed two.
Then you went back to work (if you went home, the hours were deducted from 1:00 PM) and sat watching the three computers flickering in front of you on the desk with half-closed eyes until you could go home at 4.
It was all the young parents’ way of getting their weekend booze without getting scolded, they had sobered up by family dinner time.
The proposal I pitched here is that we go between 3 and 4 and stop on the way home for beer and food. Killing many birds with one stone, we take everything on expenses, you get your weekend booze, hopefully good food, and you avoid socializing in the evening with people you’ve seen all week anyway.
13:44 – MatsExtrude
You have to try even if you’re out of Obolon!
13:54 – MatsExtrude
That English Friday pub would never work for me. First alcohol and then a bit later food without more alcohol? I would have fallen asleep before I even left the dinner table! 🙂
14:17 – Johan No.1
A worried friend in a bunker in Altai just WhatsApped me wondering how the establishment of those new 20 divisions he was promised is going.
Then he asked if I’d heard anything about mobilization, voluntary or forced – have we heard anything?
He says the caviar tastes good, I think he ate while recording the message because there was a lot of smacking and a spoon dropped but seemed to go back into his mouth after lying on the floor. It was a pretty messy message.
14:45 – Johan No.1
Has this been up, crushed armor in Bakhmut?
(I’m guessing I’m at least third).
https://twitter.com/parrot_soldier/status/1654402133158948864?s=20
15:23 – MatsExtrude
Looks like they got quite a bit of armor there. Hope it’s from today. Looks very fresh so it should be recent (unless it’s so sad that it’s from last year).
15:25 – MatsExtrude
Oh, now I saw the comment where someone claimed it was indeed from last year..
Sorry, now I’m doing like ERIK14 and sabotaging..
15:25 – Johan No.1
They look like they have been on the defense?
15:36 – MatsExtrude
I think it should show up among some of the other accounts you follow… Let’s see if it does.
16:08 – Johan No.1
Well, last year, sad.
17:07 – Johan No.1
Maybe a bit early but what do we think is reasonable regarding May 9th?
That it will be disrupted is obvious to me and anything looks bad for Putin, a drone with or without a grenade, a banner, a flag – anything.
There are mobile cameras and the sinners can film themselves so what happens will make the rounds.
19:25 – MatsExtrude
Impossible to predict but one can wish.
I hope Putin forgot to put on his adult diaper and soils himself already after 10 minutes, then he has to bite the bullet, give a speech and sit there looking uncomfortable for a few hours before everything ends with a drone swarm doing a light show in yellow and blue and playing the Ukrainian national anthem. Before that’s over, Red Square will have been emptied and the Russian air defense will have run amok so most of it lies in ruins.
Oh yes, before that, during the parade, the last Armata will have stalled and blue smoke will have drifted over all the “prominent” guests who all cough until their eyes water..
10:47 – Johan No.1
Now that the hat has been thrown into the ring, it’s just a matter of keeping quiet and waiting.
Now there are Twitter rumors about offensive operations near Vuhledar, another place, and Prigozhin is furious about Bakhmut, we’ll see, but I thought Prigozhin’s latest video was quite desperate – he must get away with his hard core before they get encircled, I think?
I interpret it as the Russians’ rising losses are not due to increasing offensives from themselves but from UA counterattacks?
UA also has front-line pre-emptive strikes now, and then heavy vehicles go down quickly in defense – the increase in that can probably partly be explained by this.
The number of derailed trains and blown-up high-value targets like oil tankers, refineries, and others has skyrocketed. There’s a lot exploding right now in the country of Russia.
It’s smart because it creates chaos and distraction. Anything that can appear as support to the war effort is a legitimate target.
I also agree with someone who wrote in the thread that there’s less and less information from the Twitterers, so we’ll probably have to listen to Girkin and Rybar soon when they cry over the state of affairs.
Do we have combat packs and reinforcement weapons with these?
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1653974508523466752?s=46&t=WZTKMBJHNB3_WOsJyyc_fg
Do you all remember the prominent Twitterers who really wanted UA to abandon Bakhmut whom we were annoyed with, they had many followers, were pro-Ukrainian and accused UA command of incompetence.
In hindsight, I think one can conclude that they were very wrong, a little self-awareness would be in order actually. Luckily, we in the thread never wavered 👍
A friend of mine is also selling a better used Gotland ferry if anyone is interested now that something big and much nicer is to be rented. He’s a bit sad because he has been painting it all spring and named it the blue-yellow boat which he thought was fun.
One thing I’ve learned in this thread is how difficult it is with big decisions and to reach consensus. Many of us have families that we’ve learned to think alike with and then a job with somewhat fixed tasks and you do what you have to for a salary. There is always some mess but there is an overarching goal in both groups and if you can’t identify with it, you move on.
Our politicians have to handle all different opinions at once on big issues, ten times more scattered than in this thread.
Even in such a black-and-white subject as the Ukraine war, and if you eliminate the trolls, it pulls in all directions all the time in the thread. You come together for a while and then it crashes again.
To be able to make the right decisions as a country’s representative in new and potentially catastrophic situations under time pressure is difficult when you are also elected to your job every four years.
It is attractive to do nothing.
That’s why a country’s government and its advisors/specialists must constantly prepare for war/crisis if you want peace.
Now it doesn’t quite work like that today after the great regiment death and when civil defense was shut down. It seems to be assumed that the best-case scenario is as it always will be and they get equally surprised every time something happens.
The electricity price, snow clearing, forest fires, big storms, the tsunami, and all other outliers where we have always been helpless.
It’s not easy but we had functioning crisis management for quite a while. Today it is not non-existent but it wouldn’t hurt to try to rebuild preparedness again and that those in positions of responsibility took it seriously.
Ukraine has a unifying factor and that is to win this war. Today the whole country is centered on that and virtually everyone works towards the same goal.
However, it swings just as fast there so waiting too long, not attacking, or trying to compromise would never work.
The different factions would jump on each other immediately so doing what they are doing now is smart.
They also have Russian subversive activities all over the country that amplify the slightest dissatisfaction.
For me, no more waiting times 😀
#whenhingesprangthehatfromthegasstationwethink