09:37 – MatsExtrude
+16 Hope it doesn’t take long!
09:39 – Johan No.1
The details around the Azov attack near Bakhmut are becoming known and it’s what we guessed – RU is low on armored vehicles in Bakhmut and Azov chased them around with infantry fighting vehicles and tanks like glorified bouncing prey.
MT wrote this morning that Ukraine War report reports a shortage of close-range anti-tank weapons. It’s a thesis we have pushed for a long time in the thread that they would have a shortage of anti-tank missiles and close-range AT weapons, and if it turns out to be true it will be a violent summer.x
We saw at the T-junction how the anti-tank missile missed when the tank triggered an explosion in the ground and one should probably be very clear that the effect of close-range AT and missiles is directly correlated to experience and handling. You have to expose yourself when shooting and direct fire on the target from attacking mechanized units is very strong visual and auditory stimuli. Inexperienced shooting might get off a shot but miss.
The defense should have learned from the southern front and disguised themselves as families instead and sat down in the forest rather than fleeing the tanks on foot – has rarely worked since some genius came up with putting soldiers on horses and giving them long pointed spears.
It seems more like a massacre than a battle and the counterattack from the task force apparently failed completely as well. Since the area is supposed to be crawling with VDV I wonder if the counterattack was VDV or not, I have no information on that.
To be sympathetic to the Russians, they had apparently taken these positions relatively recently but that’s probably how it looks around all of Bakhmut I think – they have focused on taking Bakhmut not on defending themselves.
If Wagner lost 500 in that battle as Prigozhin said then they took 10% losses of what they have left in one day, they would have about 5000 left. I have no idea if that is true and am going by Prigozhin’s word here.
Now Gregg, and others, write that they continue attacking in the same area so they are expanding and exploiting that breakthrough for a more extensive combat objective. One can thus assume this was a sub-goal.
I maintain that those were not reconnaissance battles – reconnaissance battles are with platoon (possibly company) strength and you fight reconnaissance until you make contact and then withdraw – that is the definition of combat reconnaissance. In reconnaissance you don’t even seek combat but only observe.
I maintain that we have gotten the details because Prigozhin outed it all on Telegram.
There are also battles up towards Soledar, in the built-up area of Bakhmut, north of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Vuhledar, Kreminna and Kupiansk as well – intensity unknown on all due to opsec.
In this Bakhmut attack I think territorial forces first fought in the area and then the 3rd Assault brigade slipped in for a larger operation that broke through immediately.
There are over 20 UA brigades at the Bakhmut front…
I know of a total of three attack vectors in Bakhmut where they have had successes but only this one do we have details on.
Then they have apparently flattened the Russians quite a bit in the built-up area of Bakhmut with artillery – they have five artillery brigades along this front from SW of Bakhmut up to Soledar, a forest of barrels.
It’s full opsec that applies and we also have a 3-day delay on everything.
If Budanov has managed to fool the combat leadership with my battle plan they start with the scope in Bakhmut quickly followed by crossing the Dnipro and then the Azov push while keeping pressure up between Vuhledar – Horlivka. And northern Luhansk keeps going.
(I have to find that long post but I think it was like that)
We’ll see, there were many yellow thumbs up when I sent that plan on WhatsApp because they had planned to put everything on one card straight into the city of Donetsk for some reason I never understood, with the Leopards first as well.
Bakhmut is developing into the kind of offensive we can expect when we see how UA has acted before but the area is poorly defended just like northern Luhansk is poorly defended and you get advance.
“The Great Offensive,” Desert Storm when UA reaches legendary level with violent aggressive breakthroughs, mines and all that just like we learned in Saving Private Ryan – that is presumably at the southern front.
That’s because you have to break through very well-prepared defenses so you can’t fight the way you do in Bakhmut and up in northern Luhansk (famous last words).
TheDeadDistrict thought yesterday that the offensive had been going on for a week, so a day or two before we rang the bell on May 4 in the thread. I think it’s obvious that these are not “reconnaissance battles” at Bakhmut and we only know of one of at least three attacks there yet.
At Bakhmut the offensive has presumably started, it’s not reasonable that these are reconnaissance battles.
About a week ago yesterday according to Deaddistrict so between May 2-4?
Consider that we get all information with a three-day delay as well.
For me that fits.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1656203422352171010?s=46&t=J0IY2Dmyk3XlMuedkMKSZA
David D whom I respect to read because he has a physical board with the units in his living room is also of the opinion that the offensive started “a little while ago”.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1656203422352171010?s=46&t=J0IY2Dmyk3XlMuedkMKSZA
The window to start offensive operations must be initiated and they have started in Bakhmut.
Our thought has been that within a window most fronts start simultaneously and since the reconnaissance battles have been fought across all fronts it looks like it’s going in that direction.
This would then mean that we very soon will start getting information about movements at the southern front and Dnipro, my thought was crossing the Dnipro first or simultaneously with advances at the southern front and then the marine brigades that are rampaging between Kinburn spit and the Crimea bridges or being shipped across the Dnipro.
3rd Assault brigade has personal weapons and support weapons from the West, drives M113 and then Soviet tanks. Probably also lots of Western ATGMs.
It is a brigade with Western weapons but not Leo, Bradley, CV90 or Challenger if I understand this correctly.
For the undersigned I interpret the battles around Bakhmut as UA having achieved great successes very fast – an enormous positive that they have cut through Russian defenses as they have, sensational.
And then UA is probably still holding back their best brigades for a violent offensive and breakthrough at the southern front which is this war’s hardest operation.
I have a hard time sitting still and have completely forgotten that I have a job here.
Then I ask you to read the text in the tweet below, SECTORS – plural. It’s not just at one place but several where RU has faltered around Bakhmut – this is probably bigger than what we know.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1656335799087157249?s=46&t=RGJNj9z_l4MCA0ApK8WOfQ
I don’t know where the 93rd Brigade is fighting in Bakhmut but here is a video of them walking among destroyed trucks in the Russians’ rear – they have taken terrain, how much is unknown.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1656369854016811010?s=46&t=RGJNj9z_l4MCA0ApK8WOfQ
David D with the analog wall map with units is apparently an old veteran of the higher school. Now you don’t dare write to him anymore when you only did your military service 😢
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1656364923218194447?s=46&t=RGJNj9z_l4MCA0ApK8WOfQ
Drone swarm on the way
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1656052065142034435?s=46&t=J0IY2Dmyk3XlMuedkMKSZA
The Russian barbarians really have their subversive tentacles straight into the West, they should be cut off legally.
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/kremls-hemliga-plan-falska-protester-mot-erdogan-och-turkiet/
This kind of thing always makes you too positive and now it’s the end of boats and high seas for a while but with the success they have had at Bakhmut, and that it is early May, it feels like a lot will happen before summer is over – the previous assessment stands that the war will end this summer (and summer is long in Ukraine, the last leaf probably falls in October 😀).
Then we must not forget that thousands if not tens of thousands of Ukrainians will fall in this offensive and the country will pay a terrible price for this. At T0504 there were 5-6 destroyed M113s, PTGBs and some tank so UA is taking heavy losses now as the attacking party.
The difference from the Russians’ suicide attacks where they run with drawn sabers screaming across the fields is that they achieve their combat objectives and inflict existential damage on RU.
The large scale at Bakhmut has presumably started.
Now we are waiting for the Azov thrust aka the chess move and the revolving door in northern Luhansk is probably chugging along?
09:40 – Johan No.1
The details about the Azov attack at Bakhmut are starting to become known and it’s what we have guessed – RU is low on armored vehicles in Bakhmut and Azov chased them around with armored personnel carriers and tanks like glorified hopping prey.
MT wrote this morning that Ukraine War report reports a shortage of anti-tank guided missiles. It’s a thesis we have pushed for a long time in the thread that they would have a shortage of ATGMs and anti-tank weapons and if it turns out to be true it will be a violent summer.x
We saw at the T-junction how the ATGM missed when the tank triggered a mine in the ground and you should probably be very clear that the effectiveness of anti-tank weapons and missiles is directly correlated to experience and handling. You have to expose yourself when you shoot and direct fire on the target from attacking mechanized units is very strong visual and auditory stimuli. Inexperienced shooting might get off a shot but miss.
The defense should have learned from the southern front and disguised themselves as families with children instead and sat down in the forest rather than fleeing from the tanks on foot – it has rarely worked since some genius came up with putting soldiers on horses and giving them long pointed spears.
It seems more like a massacre than a battle and the counterattack from the task force apparently failed completely as well. Since the area is supposed to be full of VDV I wonder if the counterattack was VDV or not, I have no information on that.
To be sympathetic to the Russians, they apparently took these positions relatively recently but I think it looks like that all around Bakhmut – they have focused on taking Bakhmut not on defending themselves.
If Wagner lost 500 in that battle as Prigozhin said then they took 10% losses of what they have left in one day, they would have 5000 left. I have no idea if that is true and am going by Prigozhin’s word here.
Now Gregg, and others, write that they continue attacking in the same area so they are expanding and exploiting that breakthrough for a more extensive combat objective. So one can assume this was a sub-objective.
I maintain that those were not reconnaissance battles – reconnaissance battles are with platoon (possibly company) strength and you conduct combat reconnaissance until you make contact and then withdraw – that is the definition of combat reconnaissance. In reconnaissance you don’t even seek battle but only observe.
I maintain that we have gotten the details because Prigozhin outed it all on Telegram.
There are also battles up towards Soledar, in the Bakhmut settlement, north of Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Vuhledar, Kreminna and Kupiansk too – intensity unknown on all due to opsec.
In this Bakhmut attack I think territorial forces fought in the area first and then the 3rd Assault brigade slid in for a larger operation that broke through immediately.
There are over 20 UA brigades at the Bakhmut front…
I know of a total of three attack vectors in Bakhmut where they have had successes but only this one do we have details about.
Then they have apparently flattened the Russians quite a bit in the Bakhmut settlement with artillery – they have five artillery brigades along this front from SW of Bakhmut up to Soledar, a forest of barrels.
It’s full opsec and we also have a 3-day delay on everything.
If Budanov has managed to fool the combat leadership with my battle plan then they start with the scale in Bakhmut quickly followed by crossing the Dnieper and then the Azov thrust while keeping up the pressure between Vuhledar – Horlivka. And northern Luhansk is chugging along.
(I have to find that long post but I think it was like that)
We’ll see, there were many yellow thumbs up when I sent that plan on WhatsApp because they had planned to put everything on one card straight into the city of Donetsk for some reason I never understood, with the Leopards first as well.
Bakhmut is developing into the kind of offensive we can expect when we see how UA has acted before but the area is poorly defended just like northern Luhansk is poorly defended and they are making progress.
“The Great Offensive”, Desert Storm when UA reaches legendary level with violent aggressive breakthroughs, mines and all that just like we learned in Saving Private Ryan – it is presumably at the southern front.
That’s because you have to break through very well prepared defenses so you can’t fight the way you do in Bakhmut and up in northern Luhansk (famous last words).
TheDeadDistrict thought yesterday that the offensive has been going on for a week, so a day or two before we rang the bell on May 4 in the thread. I think it’s obvious that these are not “reconnaissance battles” at Bakhmut and we only know of one of at least three attacks there yet.
In Bakhmut the offensive has presumably started, it is not reasonable that these are reconnaissance battles.
About a week ago yesterday according to Deaddistrict so between May 2-4?
Consider that we get all information with a three-day delay too.
For me that fits.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1656203422352171010?s=46&t=J0IY2Dmyk3XlMuedkMKSZA
David D whom I respect to read because he has a physical board with the units in his living room also believes the offensive started “a little while ago”.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1656203422352171010?s=46&t=J0IY2Dmyk3LuedkMKSZA
The window to begin offensive operations must have opened and they have started in Bakhmut.
Our thought has probably been that within a window, simultaneous starts occur on most fronts, and since reconnaissance battles have been fought across all fronts, it looks like it’s heading in that direction.
This would then mean that we will very soon start to get information about movements on the southern front and the Dnipro; my thought was crossing the Dnipro first or simultaneously with advances on the southern front, and then the marine brigades wreaking havoc between Kinburn Spit and the Crimean bridges or being shipped across the Dnipro.
The 3rd Assault Brigade has personal weapons and reinforcement weapons from the West, operates M113s and then Soviet tanks. Probably also lots of Western ATGMs.
It is a brigade with Western weapons but not Leo, Bradley, CV90, or Challenger if I understand this correctly.
For the undersigned, I interpret the battles around Bakhmut as UA having achieved great successes very quickly – an enormous positive that they have cut through Russian defenses as they have, sensational.
And then UA is probably still holding back their best brigades for a violent offensive and breakthrough on the southern front, which is the hardest operation of this war.
I find it hard to sit still and have completely forgotten that I have a job here.
Then I ask you to read the text in the tweet below, SECTORS – plural. It is not just at one place but several where RU has faltered around Bakhmut – this is probably bigger than we know.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1656335799087157249?s=46&t=RGJNj9z_l4MCA0ApK8WOfQ
I do not know where the 93rd Brigade is fighting in Bakhmut but here is a video when they are walking among destroyed trucks in the Russians’ rear – they have taken terrain, how much is unknown.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1656369854016811010?s=46&t=RGJNj9z_l4MCA0ApK8WOfQ
David D with the analog wall map with units is apparently an old veteran of the higher school. Now one dares not write to him anymore when one only did the conscript service 😢
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1656364923218194447?s=46&t=RGJNj9z_l4MCA0ApK8WOfQ
Drone swarm on the way
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1656052065142034435?s=46&t=J0IY2Dmyk3XlMuedkMKSZA
The Russian barbarians really have their subversive tentacles straight into the West, they should be cut off legally.
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/kremls-hemliga-plan-falska-protester-mot-erdogan-och-turkiet/
This kind of thing always makes one too positive and now it’s the end of boats and high seas for a while but with the success they have had at Bakhmut, and that it is early May, it feels like a lot will happen before summer ends – the earlier assessment stands that the war will be over this summer (and summer is long in Ukraine, the last leaf probably falls in October 😀).
Then we must not forget that thousands if not tens of thousands of Ukrainians will fall in this offensive and the country will pay a terrible price for this. At T0504 there were 5-6 destroyed M113s, ATGMs, and some tanks so UA is taking heavy losses now as the attacking party.
The difference from the Russians’ suicide attacks where they run with drawn sabers screaming across the fields is that they achieve their combat objectives and inflict existential damage on RU.
The large scale at Bakhmut has presumably started.
Now we wait for the Azov thrust aka the chess move and the revolving door in northern Luhansk is probably chugging along?
09:41 – Johan No.1
Sorry for thread spamming 😐
10:09 – Johan No.1
Dengamle – I think the events on the ground support your hunting rights.
The document is signed and sent and applies immediately so your indisputable right to as much criticism as you want is restored 👍
10:13 – MatsExtrude
+100
Spring is definitely here!
10:21 – Johan No.1
Then I am aware that you invented the cavalry a bit by accident and maybe haven’t gotten full credit for it in history writing but it was your merit. If I remember correctly you got on a horse you used for transport to reach a very red apple and used a long stick because it was too high up.
It was at the same time as the rest of the village formed up to fight with the neighboring village and since you managed to poke the horse in the eye with the stick it bolted straight through the neighboring village’s formation and their shaman was impaled on the stick, the apple was there too. The neighboring village immediately folded and somewhat surprised you received the village’s cheers where you sat on the horse eating the apple.
The rumor spread and the cavalry was born, for quite a while red pennants were used on the lances until the late 1800s which originated from your red apple on the stick.
That’s how it went, it was lively and improvised back then 👍
10:27 – Johan No.1
That’s it 😀👍
10:27 – Johan No.1
Saw that you proved it mathematically below 👍
10:54 – MatsExtrude
Ha, ha, wonderful! Think of all DENGAMLE has been through! 🙂
12:31 – MatsExtrude
Exactly, irrefutable evidence too! 😉
12:58 – Johan No.1
UA forward southwest of Vuhledar according to twitter god.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1656571938179895297?s=46&t=7Gt5ltNBjIULf6pq39k_aw
12:59 – Johan No.1
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1656563677812727808?s=46&t=7Gt5ltNBjIULf6pq39k_aw
13:19 – MatsExtrude
Just lies!
Zelensky has said the offensive can’t start yet! 😉
13:37 – Johan No.1
Russian armor on the way to reinforce Bakhmut 👇
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1656573845791285250?s=46&t=7Gt5ltNBjIULf6pq39k_aw
13:58 – Johan No.1
Now this one popped up, same show every time I always hit the mark with Accentman 👍
Now you understand it’s not reconnaissance battles, he can also draw on the map which makes it clearer.
13:59 – Johan No.1
That looks like the beginning of a breakthrough 😀
14:00 – Johan No.1
Check out Accentman below.
14:35 – Johan No.1
The rat buses are leaving Kherson
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1656635343695650825?s=46&t=YUpiHYn9EZRseuJjmNxL1A
14:52 – MatsExtrude
Sorry! I will stop trying to be funny through irony. 🙂
15:03 – MatsExtrude
+1
Ah, you missed him this morning in yesterday’s thread?
I thought a couple of months ago that they were about to take care of that flank when they made some smaller attack. Then nothing more happened.
Great to see they are finally running them over!
15:06 – MatsExtrude
+1 Another sign that they are fleeing.
15:13 – Johan No.1
I missed him…
15:25 – MatsExtrude
Understand if you didn’t get my weak attempt at irony earlier!
He is often a day or two ahead of DeepStateMap and now that it has started moving offensively it’s hard to wait for the next video…
19:28 – Johan No.1
18:40 – I am seriously behind, we had lots of meetings with the client and one day when I have processed this trauma there will be a post about what it’s like to work in one of Africa’s most chaotic countries – every day is chaos.
So the joy of reading that the offensive is picking up in Bakhmut helps like balm.
19:38 – Johan No.1
I am the one who stops with laughing yellow faces, I will start using them again 😀
19:39 – Johan No.1
I seem to have totally lost focus here 😀
22:11 – Johan No.1
Things are going well now 👇
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1656753475563188224?s=46&t=uI8NUyLKT3RMV_H1Xc3-DQ
22:13 – Johan No.1
Lots of indirect fire in the reconnaissance battles👇
https://twitter.com/azovsouth/status/1656751344600993792?s=46&t=uI8NUyLKT3RMV_H1Xc3-DQ
22:34 – Johan No.1
Have you seen this? Amid all the chaos, they have kept their sense of humor 😀👍👇
https://twitter.com/friaukraina/status/1656748143310958607?s=46&t=uI8NUyLKT3RMV_H1Xc3-DQ
07:46 – Johan No.1
Apparently chaos among the Russians according to themselves.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1656891350808252419?s=46&t=vl2E0IR7YnEXvqBV71n0Yw
09:26 – Johan No.1
Just wrote in yesterday’s thread that the Dutch at work report that the Netherlands is in the final phase of agreeing with Denmark and Germany on F-16s for Ukraine, very close.
Also remembered that UA has “several dozen trained pilots” so they are one air route away from being deployed in combat.
No reason to distrust them so F-16s in UA after a while now seems confirmed.