16:53 – Johan No.1
The accent man posted above suggests that UA is sniffing around Klischivka.
If Klischivka falls, the next defense line is probably the one they are currently gathering units for. It will not be well developed but they are betting on clustering in the communities and then the Ukrainian artillery will decimate them very hard in a few days.
The attack vector south of Bakhmut will likely reach its combat objectives in a week or two.
17:00 – MatsExtrude
+100 #SpringIsHere and #SummerIsComing!
17:11 – Johan No.1
I give myself the last comment prize if Dengalme has fallen somewhere with his walker and is stuck.
16:52 – Johan No.1
Apparently, I got yesterday’s last comment when I posted the post below in yesterday’s thread this morning…
It continues around Bakhmut and we have received reports that further counterattacks have been repelled.
There are supposed to be two battalions attacking north of Bakhmut and probably two battalions south of Bakhmut – around a brigade but presumably from 2-3 different brigades.
Likely supported by Territorial forces acting as flank protection and fortifying captured positions.
Of course, I didn’t manage to find the big offensive post over the weekend and it was another post about how they conduct breaches as we thought it would go.
ISW totally criticizes Russian capability here and if they don’t stabilize the situation at Bakhmut soon, there is probably substance behind this post.
There have been some diagnosed positives in the thread who wrote this, so it’s always nice when a heavyweight like ISW, which we have always respected throughout the war, writes it too 👍
https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1657697072236183552?s=46&t=48aoeqSd3g4-8CEU-X7SqA
The technical post about the breakthrough was roughly like this –
UA has logged all positions and strikes fixed targets in pre-attack suppression with guided ammunition within a geographic area.
Their drones hunt around the soldiers in the trench systems and if they retreat into the reinforced trench, they put a high-explosive 155mm shell in it and take them all out.
When the attack comes and a Russian in a pit is about to get into a firing position, drone-dropped wing grenades are on standby and take out the anti-tank missile and the anti-tank missile first.
They probably know where the anti-tank weapons are and drop grenades on them.
At the same time, observation drones watch everything in real time.
Then direct fire on the attack target and some air bursts and the defense becomes demotivated and takes a break.
Then they would counter the counterattack from the task force and then go for the next line.
UA has done something much smarter in Bakhmut – they advance with less than company strength and as soon as they encounter defense, they withdraw and lay indirect fire over the area as above which is very effective and then storm the trench systems.
If I didn’t sleep through all the history lessons, that was exactly how the US fought in Normandy during WW2?
Blogger Murz basically confirms how UA fights and then I think he confirms the question we asked ourselves in the posts over the last couple of days – are these weak brigades of a few hundred who jointly defend an area, seems so?
He also believes that UA has total dominance in indirect fire, which one can understand with Russian ammunition and artillery losses as well as Western deliveries.
UA thus has 5 artillery BRIGADES around the Bakhmut front.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1657675029813796866?s=46&t=xgWdmSusPZ5cWjJxbbfY0g
Prigozhin is trying to negotiate his way out by betraying the army, Wagner is starting to look for an exit, the army brigades have left their positions 4-5 times. Brigade commanders are going and dying.
Girkin says it is like 1917 where the Jews and Georgians destroyed Russia – the country is soon turning inward.
Likely RU is trying to set up a strong defense between Opytne and southern Zaitseve with VDV, I would have done that because there is a watercourse there.
The question is where they have pulled the units from.
This will keep grinding on and when the Azov brigade needs a combat pause, they switch to the next brigade.
So it is 1/20 brigades in the area that have been put into combat and they have achieved very large successes in a few days.
Then there has also been movement south of Vuhledar and near Avdiivka.
At Soledar it is quiet but my coffee grounds say something is going on.