12:42 – MatsExtrude
Thumbs up! Good analysis/summary as usual!
12:44 – Johan No.1
Glad it didn’t get a thumbs down 😀
12:47 – Johan No.1
Those pro-Ukrainian debaters who screamed that UA would leave Bakhmut should eat their words, but they have moved on.
Bakhmut is the start of everything; right now RU is weakening another front section to be able to slow down in Bakhmut. UA naturally knows exactly where and will strike there – and it will go on like that.
Yep, with F-16 they have the whole fireworks package.
Going to have a lukewarm Stella and bolognese chips.
12:56 – MatsExtrude
No reason to!
13:00 – MatsExtrude
I think we can salute the guys who manage to hold the city by listening to “The Fortress Bakhmut.”
13:03 – Johan No.1
There was also the instructor from Gregg’s homeland, and I’m pretty sure they have trained the home guard and that the last six months have been filled with unmotivated conscripts.
We must not forget that the home guard has been fighting in Bakhmut for nine months; would any Swedish home guard battalion be so much better in Bakhmut, do you think?
Instructors in the UK and elsewhere have praised UA soldiers for learning wizard-level skills in half the time compared to their own soldiers, but those are the maneuver brigades.
13:28 – Johan No.1
Completely missed that G7 is going to hold a peace summit on the side.
Yes, there are probably frantic attempts to find a solution here.
https://twitter.com/flash_news_ua/status/1659156265853919232?s=46&t=qSsToBwfyXYJjlsBiW16Vg
14:58 – Johan No.1
Very fitting 👍
17:46 – Johan No.1
Bakhmut minor breakthrough
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1659212087133085697?s=46&t=qSsToBwfyXYJjlsBiW16Vg
20:23 – Johan No.1
Patriot is doing well 👍
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1659263078003875866?s=46&t=MjhGxDGM5lgB5XorwW2yXw
12:04 – Johan No.1
It’s been a hectic morning. Due to lack of time, there will be fewer details about UA units in future posts and UA will never cross the Dnipro.
Based entirely on loose rumors, it seems that RU has retreated to the line Opytne – southern Zaitseve. It is behind a watercourse and the next defensive line after Klischivska.
It is also the defensive line we guessed they would set up a few days ago.
There were rumors that they “ran from Bakhmut,” from RU themselves that they have established a new defensive line, Prigozin that Klischivska has fallen, and UA soldiers that they are advancing 500m per day.
At this moment, I am uncertain whether Klischivka has fallen or not, but if so, it is imminent. I must be clear that they have not left the built-up area in Bakhmut; this is south of Bakhmut.
If RU has retreated to that line and gone on defense with VDV, they have likely established a defense that will NOT run as soon as it is touched this time.
Since UA has reached wizard-level, they will then decimate VDV with indirect fire for about a week while trying the same rope trick elsewhere, north of Bakhmut or Soledar for example.
We will see if UA gives up the built-up area in Bakhmut; if they do, this is the biggest nothing burger of the war.
Gregg wrote yesterday what we probably discussed yesterday, that battalions are probably rotated, either from the same brigade or new units. I also think we have some new brigade names in all these trench-destroyer videos with dead Russians.
I have sensed a feeling of disappointment, seems to be because there hasn’t been a Saving Private Ryan offensive yet. I am admittedly always positive to the point of jubilation, but what is happening around Bakhmut gives us a lot of data to reason about and process and then try to translate to other fronts, and it doesn’t look good for the barbarians – not at all.
Bakhmut is partly an ongoing offensive operation that now involves several brigades both north and south of the built-up area in Bakhmut. The operation has a goal but in a larger perspective it draws reserves from other front sections and is stressful for Russian combat leadership.
RU is clearly shaken by what has happened in Bakhmut because they have issued strategic communication from high level that they have the situation fully under control and have “regrouped.” You’d almost have to look hard to find a stronger counterindicator?
A lot happens every day and RU has sky-high loss figures in defense – that bodes well.
RU ended their offensive because they reached a low point where they probably couldn’t continue really.
Earlier low points they consolidated by giving up areas, mobilizing, and then trying to hold out.
This round of mobilization is not going well, I think we can agree on that; I don’t really know what to call it.
Ukraine has previously scraped together what they could and attacked; at Kharkiv it was one or a few mechanized battalions.
At Izyum it was two tank companies in the lead or something like that, and they have kept at it like that.
They have continuously built up an offensive capability for a future offensive that has been disconnected from the defense, and today they have not compromised that capability while achieving successes in Bakhmut and other hotspots with “existing brigades.”
Rybar must be quoted as they promised, he has in two tweets shown UA buildup at the southern front and also that soldiers confirm the offensive start is imminent.
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1658870684020355073?s=46&t=JsxV1ZeQgc59au82gi3zDQ
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1658870678429237248?s=46&t=JsxV1ZeQgc59au82gi3zDQ
Was Patriot the game changer?
There was a lot of other LV from the West earlier but 100% kill rate was only achieved with Patriot. Are they superior to other systems, or have other systems helped?
Anyway, the missile weapon is neutralized because they have fired everything they had and caused very little damage. As long as ammunition for Patriot is delivered, and we know nothing about that, I want to clarify.
Now that China is making rounds trying to get a peace plan, one begins to suspect that this war is now hurting the country China?
Anyway, UA made it clear that territorial concessions are not part of the discussion.
https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1659062981362163714?s=46&t=JsxV1ZeQgc59au82gi3zDQ
Someone wrote about a month ago “imagine how fun it would be if we trained a whole Ukrainian brigade that did their final exercise during Aurora and then was sent to Ukraine.”
In hindsight, it feels like a bit of insight and maybe not bird respect but it was formulated in a completely neutral way so no one in the thread picked up on it.
I myself didn’t believe it, today it’s feelings I can barely handle as a Swede and probably have to solve it with beer and chips.
There is a discussion going on about artillery and that RU still has many barrels left. That may be so but they don’t have gun crews and a very strong reason they take such high losses is because the crews are new and don’t move the guns quickly or at all – easy targets for UA.
Then they probably don’t have much drone information or artillery radar left at this point and shoot only at UA static defense.
It’s not entirely surprising that UA starts in Bakhmut since they have the highest density of units there, right – that was pretty clear already when the big Schlieffen plan was summarized a few months ago.
What they do, however, is hold back their offensive reserve of maybe 20 brigades so RU doesn’t know where they will hit next and break through.
Matsextrude, or MXT as he is popularly also starting to be called as an expression of respect, pointed out that RU has made progress on the order of a few meters up near Kupiansk.
RU is reinforcing with new units (from Russia) in northern Luhansk. That is positive in every way actually if they don’t get down to other fronts.
A Russian diversion up there is not impossible.
https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1658847908546969600?s=46&t=TeV2auofYF1CPY9_BU6iYQ
The bubble list hasn’t been up for a long time –
We have spontaneous Russian retreat at front sections, spontaneous or ordered full Russian retreat, Putin dangling at a gas station, negotiations with Putin or others. Then we have Russia turning inward, Russia breaking up, and what else.
The Budanov interview yesterday suggests that they are definitely talking about alternatives – we lift sanctions and thaw your bundles of cash if you – send everyone on this list to The Hague, demilitarized zone in Russia, demilitarized Kaliningrad, democratic elections in Belarus, pay X billion to UA.
Stormshadow, F-16, Abrams are all strategic communications that will be sent if needed.
“The great offensive” is also strategic communication that will be executed if needed.
The pressure cooker Russia must be at breaking point as Prigozin is acting. He has FSB support and so does Girkin (because he is FSB).
They are openly talking about revolution right now.
As is well known, you are not supposed to predict outcomes on the bubbling list, but there is a lot of exciting stuff simmering.
Overall, the offensive at Bakhmut is going better than expected, and I think it’s probably about time we start seeing the “new” brigades in combat, right?
There is no reason to wait long until mid-summer; the window for offensive operations has reasonably begun.
However, we know that with China making rounds in negotiations, there is probably a serious attempt to reach a negotiated solution, but as long as Putin is alive, I guess that won’t happen.