10:34 – Johan No.1
The link with T90 was deadistrict and everyone can probably find him.
10:39 – Johan No.1
NATO or not, Sweden will have a strong alliance with Finland and the Baltics. We will probably send navy, air force and rangers to Finland and 1-2 mechanized brigades to the Baltics in times of unrest.
Poland will support the Belarus border in times of unrest once they have had their free elections and moved towards the West.
Ukraine apparently manages on its own as long as they get weapons.
The rest of the EU has standing brigades that they commit to sending to the eastern front in case of war as well as air force, air defense and artillery.
Everything is exercised annually on site.
The entire EU pools together and finances the countries bordering Russia with much higher military capability than they can afford so they don’t collapse.
It’s infinitely simple really and the chance for Russia to have a round two is small.
12:48 – Johan No.1
NL Wartracker is a reliable source and he says that UA has left the built-up area in Bakhmut.
https://twitter.com/nlwartracker/status/1659863843135275008?s=46&t=ttGKX2z_DVos-0qXtMCOXw
12:49 – Johan No.1
So – Wagner declares victory and pulls out their elite units?
13:55 – MatsExtrude
👍👍👍
14:08 – Johan No.1
Zelensky meets Modi, everyone likes a winner.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1659886809881407491?s=46&t=gsdNfSTxC_wmjh7Rx3acyQ
14:12 – Johan No.1
Smart expert, how could Russia escalate?
When Satan 2 does a half loop and falls back to the launch site it would have been hysterically funny to see. Their tactical nuclear weapons are in terrible condition and they never dare to unleash any strategic ones, if they have any that work.
I also believe the chain is broken so even if the slime gnome says four of everything it won’t happen. A responsible Russian officer also has a family and also has some relative who died in Ukraine.
14:13 – Johan No.1
There have been cases before during the Cold War where responsible officers went against standing orders.
15:41 – Johan No.1
Prigozhin declares Bakhmut captured.
https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1659910256212824066?s=46&t=gsdNfSTxC_wmjh7Rx3acyQ
16:01 – Johan No.1
Ukraine disagrees with Prigozhin
https://twitter.com/flash_news_ua/status/1659920458798563330?s=46&t=gsdNfSTxC_wmjh7Rx3acyQ
22:15 – Johan No.1
Tonight the pro-Russians are having a field day with Bakhmut, all you can do is insult them roughly and hope it stings.
Now it’s the Roma speaking definitely but what do you think about UA giving up Bakhmut so Wagner leaves and then they strike?
I find the outcome myself, a bit too speculative even for me…
10:27 – Johan No.1
Lion ✊
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1659581709820608513?s=46&t=bM0niTEnfwBqsBzHXtqxaQ
Yesterday there seemed to be a good atmosphere in the thread when I went through it this morning, lots of laughter 👍
The Dutch colleagues are very satisfied with the F-16, it is their prime minister who has pushed this and got the Danes, Germans, and someone else on board. The USA probably only needed to give its permission for their technology to be sent to UA?
There were a couple of absolutely hardcore pessimists here in the thread who firmly claimed that the West would never send top-shelf weapons to Ukraine. With Stormshadow and F-16, they have pretty much gotten everything?
A submarine in the Black Sea might possibly top this off?
(yes, there are better weapons platforms…)
I also want to make a point here – so far UA has received a very small part of the West’s weapons, we could equip them with 10 times more in all weapon categories and still maintain capability if we think a bit, does Portugal really need tanks and IFVs?
Probably not needed now because what they have will work wonders, but just to put it in perspective.
UA is moving towards well-equipped NATO standard warfare while Russia has reinstated the blocking battalions and dusted off the planes for Tannenberg – the difference in capability is widening all the time and UA has really only just started to move, more is coming.
Someone posted from a non-credible source that Gerasimov gave orders for the army to withdraw to Popasna and then another highly unconfirmed rumor that Wagner’s hard core is leaving Bakhmut – both are rumors from unconfirmed sources.
This comes at the same time as the buildings in Bakhmut seem to have fallen or are about to fall, a bit unclear but I think the last UA units that have been almost mobile patrols of units proficient in urban combat have slipped out (but I don’t know). You also remember the highly unconfirmed rumor that there was a tunnel over to Chasiv Yar, true or not but I think if they retreated they did it in good order.
Then there was a flash from Erik14 that they are mining south of Soledar as much as they can and that is highly likely.
With the above in mind and if you then take a look at Deepstatemap it is likely that RU is preparing a withdrawal to the line between Svitlodarsk (Luhanske) – Troitske – Popasna – Hrivske – Toshkivka. It follows watercourses and the communities are very dominant in the terrain.
Instead of trying to prepare new lines where they are today in unfavorable terrain, they are pulling back 25km-30km to favorable defensive terrain where they are currently digging their trenches, mining, and clearing fields of fire.
Alternatively, they might fall back to the stalemate line but those communities look good for defense and I don’t really know what the stalemate line looks like, it ended up where it ended up I guess?
The first stabilization was done by rushing up reserves from Zaporizia, Vuhledar, and Avdiivka in panic – they were easily accessible.
Now they should have brought down reserves from Russia who will fortify this new fortification line together with the LPR units that (possibly) have been in the rear.
Horlivka then becomes the southern anchor and Lysychansk and/or Severedonetsk the northern anchor.
They will try to hold out at the Bakhmut front until they think they have fortified this defensive line enough and then they will do the Russian version of a retreat that we have seen a couple of times now – panic, chaos, and a washing machine on a pallet.
Guaranteed they will throw the Wagner members left under the bus, or they won’t get any buses when it’s time to retreat and will stand there at the bus stop feeling really screwed.
It will be a violent breakthrough and many prisoners but then RU hopes to stop the steamroller at the new defensive line – which they probably will.
That’s good because then RU has tied up reserves in a secondary area and the Bakhmut offensive has basically fulfilled its purpose.
Likely they have now also increased the defense of the city of Horlivka, they should need to defend the northern part of the city up to the water at Svitlodarsk. Here they should also have used the LPR units that (possibly) have been in the rear.
All exactly according to plan then and it’s not like they are fooling the Russians, they have to act in a certain way – reinforce or leave the whole front wide open 👍
In the near term, UA should try a breakthrough at Soledar or north of the buildings in Bakhmut until they have decimated the VDV standing at Opytne – southern Zaitseve sufficiently through indirect fire – VDV dies as easily as everyone else in their trench when they have no support according to doctrine.
Probably RU will pull back the units they have around Bakhmut behind the new defensive line Horlivka – Severedonetsk and then they will recover, merge, and act as a rapid response force.
The 15-20 different units of varying size that now see, and will see, combat will not be very eager for war and will probably stay behind that front.
If UA continues to project threat by keeping brigades in that area, RU cannot weaken much so they will definitely lock in large numbers there.
That should be 15-20 brigades (in VERY varying sizes) + the new reinforcements that fortify the new line that are permanently tied up at the Bakhmut front.
This is a number RU really cannot spare but it is the number needed for this front not to collapse.
Now this might have been a bit messy but the point is that to stabilize one (1) front out of 5-6, RU must dedicate too large a share of its available units.
According to yesterday’s post, we know that UA has the capacity for an equally big blow at the southern front with or without crossing the Dnipro and that they still have 75% of offensive capability left after that and can choose the next focus point.
A wildcard is that RU must choose where to defend and if forced to, they will probably abandon northern Luhansk but we shouldn’t speculate outcomes from the wildcard list, and we are not there yet.
Some notes on long-range combat.
This is what it looks like when HIMARS has had a party and that probably isn’t counted?
They sniff out some depot with new vehicles and then rain tungsten on them until it looks like this?
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1659767535900712966?s=46&t=ttGKX2z_DVos-0qXtMCOXw
Real-time information I call this painting, RU moved helicopters down to the airport behind the southern front and two hours later HIMARS paid a visit – signals excellent intelligence situation.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1659636771540332544?s=46&t=ttGKX2z_DVos-0qXtMCOXw
This one also made the rounds, a company of T90M somewhere in Donetsk that grouped scattered and hidden was wiped out on a night shift after being detected by drones.
How do you think heavy vehicles in the frontline defense lines close to the front hold up?
Not very well is my guess.
Earlier we heard that a drone group took out 10 vehicles during a night shift and at another front and another group it was 6 during a night shift.
UA now has drones with night capability so they roam around day and night.
(it became a weird link but it goes to the tweet)
Tweet / Twitter
This exercise looked a bit unpleasant I must admit, thought ice swimming in the military service was enough.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1659554380457058306?s=46&t=bM0niTEnfwBqsBzHXtqxaQ