2023-05-24 -

10:10 – Johan No.1

Lion ✊
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1661009689793159168?s=46&t=iG1MIagLif2Am5Hm18CB3w

Just so it doesn’t get lost, UA entered Russia at three points, see the map below.

We already knew that on the first day but since then all discussion in every forum has been about that raid where they probably got the furthest in, I guess?
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1660962993071431683?s=46&t=iG1MIagLif2Am5Hm18CB3w

Read this communiqué from Freedom Russia, it gives chills. Every Russian with Telegram reads this.
https://twitter.com/alexbondodua/status/1660938843481055238?s=46&t=iG1MIagLif2Am5Hm18CB3w

Most recently, there are reports that they have entered Bryansk as well – unconfirmed Twitter rumors should be added, but today they seize on everything.

Yesterday’s big sensation was delivered by Erik14 as usual with a rumor that RU sent units from the 3rd division to Belgorod. It has been fighting just north of Kreminna since the offensive started on January 6 and there should have been 150,000 reserves available in Russia and then a whole bunch of units north of them that have not been fighting continuously.

If it appears near Belgorod, it is absolutely sensational.

It’s a bit unclear whether the raid was repelled or if it is still on Russian territory, different reports depending on which side of the conflict the information comes from. I am of the opinion that they are still there but that is a personal opinion I cannot back up with hard facts.

Further reasoning about BPR (Belgorod People’s Republic) from yesterday –

Many countries have thought that Ukraine should give up “a little land” for peace.

Putin absolutely thinks so and that is still his demand – “give us something and we will give you peace.”

Ukraine has just thrown BPR into that discussion – “okay world, why is it only us who have to give up land, can’t Russia give up BPR too so there will be peace”?

Maybe they swap Belgorod Oblast for Donetsk Oblast?

Or accept LPR, DPR, BPR and a bunch of other independent oblasts like Kursk (KPR), Bryansk (BPR2), Rostov (RPR) and Voronezh (VPR)?

They agree on autonomy if Russia agrees on autonomy 😀

The possibilities are endless but above all the boomerang has come back and hit Putin right in the face really hard – Ukraine has taken a page from Russia’s playbook and Putin now has to try to handle it.

Then, as I think Bingbong was first with – Putin has been so sure that the West’s demand that Ukraine not fight on Russian soil would be followed that they did not fortify the border along the northern front at all.

There was even someone in the thread who wrote “I don’t think the West will accept that,” and some who thought Ukraine would lose credibility and “Western support” if they kept doing this.

Dozens of FSB soldiers were lost in the raid according to UA sources but it is quite far from a fortified border, they were sitting in a border station passing the ration can between them.

Then they reportedly hit a company that tried a counterattack, that is also far from a well-fortified border.

The West has been unfair to Ukraine throughout the war but Ukrainians are evidently pragmatic and smart.

I am quite sure they plan to have good relations with the Oblasts around their land – all five. You don’t get that if you kill lots of inhabitants there. However, Russia seems to be going hard immediately and killing lots of Russians in Russia right now – they are completely hopeless.

How they achieve this buffer zone is hard to predict but one way would be if the surrounding Oblasts got greater self-determination?

Looking at the points of entry and then along the entire northern front, you understand that they can keep this up about once a week for the rest of the year if they want.

And every time it is an existential crisis for the Russian leadership who cannot defend their country.

What happens when Ukraine has liberated northern Luhansk, the border with Russia just got even longer, right?

Then there are Twitter rumors about “insurgencies,” i.e. local forces committing liberation acts in the Oblasts – truth or not is quite hard to know but quite a few of the previous liberation acts have been claimed by one of the various liberation fronts.

The war has come to Russia at last, there is probably a lot of Omeprazole being taken in the Kremlin right now because the only thing they are really afraid of is revolution.

Now there is a risk they have to deal with that was not there a week ago, it is not peripheral, it is on Russian soil and the Russian defense was completely inadequate, or non-existent.

If they follow this up with, say, a very violent attack on Azov and then images are broadcast of Russians fleeing Crimea over the bridge, wouldn’t that be a bit like lighting the fuse on a New Year’s rocket?

Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov are actually not immune to everything. Prigozhin and Girkin have FSB support and FSB presidential candidate Patrushev is waiting for his move while the first two speculate on how Putin will be killed and whether there will be a revolution or not.

There are certainly more in the shadows, taking over Russia guarantees a very large personal fortune for everyone in the inner circle and there are more agencies than the FSB and more groups than them.

When Putin is taken down, they will probably follow the routines according to current practice and carry out a violent purge and then when the smoke has cleared, people will know who came out on top. A bit like opening a bag of chips and finding the biggest chip that hasn’t broken up or the opposite, the whole bag is like gravel because your kid banged the bag against their legs all the way home from Östenssons – you have to dip a handful of crumbs and try to lap it up between crying fits.

One more thought – many claim that Russia still has good access to tanks and soldiers and therefore cannot lose the war. If they had a strong army, wouldn’t the first thing they did be to fortify the existing border with Ukraine?

If it’s empty there, it’s probably empty at other borders too that don’t border a war zone.

Or in the republics, oblasts or territories that previously needed some moral support from the army in the form of an army base?

We have been told they sent 97% of their army to Ukraine – that suddenly doesn’t sound unreasonable.

Then, as Argus taught us, the FSB takes care of border protection and is (supposed to be) 100,000 strong.

I have got the total number of men (or women or other identities (ALL, no one forgotten)) in weapons in all different agencies etc. to 500,000. That probably included Wagner as well so 440,000 left 😀

Now of course you can’t sacrifice them to die against Ukraine because these armies are the ones that will clash later in the fight for power but they will probably be sent to oblasts where it’s messy, presumably?

If Bakhmut was a sign of Russian weakness, then I honestly don’t even know what we should call this raid into Belgorod?

The Russians can’t infiltrate into Ukraine along that border at all, but Ukraine can drive halfway to Belgorod in a day with battalion strength.

At the same time as Ukraine is starting to break through at Bakhmut.

Does anyone believe it looks much better on the southern front?

Why would it?

The pessimists will have been wrong about everything when this war is over, first it was that UA would lose, then that the West would never send weapons, then that UA was short on ammunition, then it would be World War I and frozen borders (and then came Kharkiv and Izyum), then that there would be no offensive from Ukraine (which has now started), and the last negative bastion that needs to be torn down is probably that Ukraine can’t go and win the war entirely on its own.

Luckily, Ukraine was not pessimistic and saw opportunities where everyone else saw darkness and loss.

Now CV90 is in Ukraine and many thought those boy-room video game-playing perpetual singles didn’t understand how the real world worked in response to the constant “200 CV90s.”

Ukraine naturally sees its chance for a somewhat more stable future here to live their lives in freedom, and in that world Russia is broken up into smaller parts that have greater autonomy or absolute freedom, and Ukraine has good relations with the “countries” (or whatever they become) around its land.

If you don’t spontaneously feel “wow, great” about this but instead get a bit more depressed over such good news, you should take Johan’s “think positive course” – it’s a two-day course where we drink Norrlands Guld and eat grill chips with ranch dip nonstop. The first person to sign up gets to open the chip bag, I’ll mix the dip because it needs to sit in the fridge for a while.

The biggest myth of all that remains is that the world would become a worse place if Russia was broken up into smaller parts. Russia has been like this since the 1700s – maybe it’s time to try something else. Especially since we’ve already tried stroking them the wrong way, low-affect response, and giving them everything they pointed to including money laundering through our banking systems, and it ended in the war of aggression on Ukraine.

If the countries bordering Russia think it’s a good option, we should reasonably think so too.

Another angle on the whole thing – presumably intense peace negotiations are going on right now and the Belgorod raid is a bargaining chip for Ukraine par excellence.

Then a bit of new thinking about Crimea, maybe it would be better to lock in 50,000 Russians down there instead of letting them retreat over Kerch?

Then they can reinforce up in Donbass later, so the best for a win is probably if they are trapped there and then you handle them last of all?

Break the back of the southern front and push the Russians down there, then they have to sit there until everything else is settled and then they either surrender or you run over them.

I feel that one should renew oneself sometimes and that was my contribution.

The next big move to watch is probably that China, without shame, has had meetings with all the -stans over in Asia and that Russia was not invited.

The West can only suggest that the -stans should approach them instead, but they are free countries to do as they want and if they (the dictators) think China offers a better deal, they are free to join forces with China.

If we swap Russia for China, we haven’t really improved the world that much if China gets a feeling for expansion into these -stans, which is probably not great but was expected.