2023-06-09 -

10:48 – Johan No.1

Yesterday Neil Hauer announced that Leo2 and Bradley were pictured in combat at the first attack vector on the southern front towards Mariupol. They had attacked the previous day or night, so June 7. If I have interpreted this correctly, then according to the thread definition for a major offensive, the criteria were met if I have managed to navigate how the thread intended?
https://twitter.com/neilphauer/status/1666758635874144256?s=46&t=nQt1L9QgNAjiH_K2YGpbeQ

I will try to refrain from big somersaults going forward because now that the intensity is increasing, Ukrainian soldiers are falling in large numbers. If you read the pro-Russian sites, there are new videos with burning armored vehicles and far too many of them.

As we probably wrote the other day, this war has infinitely many unknown heroes who are only mourned by a broken wife and lonely children, a photo on the mantelpiece, and old candle stubs.

There has been good tone for a long time now on the blog. Attacks and sour discussions about domestic politics have been absent, which is very nice.

It has probably been said before, but you would have to look hard to find a better open historical archive, and when history is to be written, anyone who wants can just sit and jump between the dates and see what happened that day almost hour by hour.

There is very good news from the fronts. Bakhmut is probably hanging in the balance; when Klishchivka and Krasna Hora fall, it will become completely untenable in the settlements in Bakhmut, which will then have to be abandoned.

And when the settlements are abandoned, a large hole is torn open in the Bakhmut front.

6-7 Ukrainian brigades seem to be in combat but not at brigade size, rather at battalion strength rotating, so they are still fighting with about a third of the available units.

When one finally became a gloomy realist (got that epithet somewhere around Christmas, don’t remember from whom) regarding the fighting on the southern front, then that breakthrough we have always vividly described will probably come, but I think we will see Ukraine chip away at the defense and take area after area for a while now.

The violent breakthroughs and spearheads I have vividly tried to describe are also high risk – if unlucky, two brigades can be wiped out in the fields before lunch.

What is currently happening is devastating indirect fire against all identified targets Normandy-style as well as a numbers game – since Ukraine can attack from a numerical disadvantage, Russia will run out of reserves first.

The question then is what will come first on the southern front – Russian retreat or a violent breakthrough by Ukraine.

A much stronger attack is needed on the northern front and soon, within weeks. It needs to be deep, violent, and aimed at some larger city. If the unit maps are correct, it is in the cards.

More amplifiers from the West are also needed immediately – the delay in condemnations regarding Khakovka hopefully means they are coordinating something that kills a dragon. If not, it’s autumn 2022 all over again…

The big movements have previously been that they forced Russia’s hand to abandon an area, so Russia should have a replanning ready in case things worsen on the southern front. They seem to at least master escaping before being overrun.

What is beginning to emerge as significant is that one can start to suspect that Russia very soon will have to choose what to defend again.

We discussed this a bit last week, and I have moved away from the idea that they will abandon northern Luhansk, now that we know the border with Russia is defended by customs officers, to that they will abandon the southern front.

Even a Russian should understand that if they abandon northern Luhansk, they have three times longer a border to defend with the same number of units – or maybe they can’t handle that kind of consequential thinking, who knows what the inside of a Russian general’s head looks like.

Russia did not have 150,000 in reserves up in Russia because no reinforcements came to the northern front during the Belgorod raids 1 and 2 for almost three weeks.

At Bakhmut it was half empty and they had to pull units from other front sections in panic to stabilize the situation.

The likelihood that Russian units on the southern front are insufficient and in worse shape than we think is very high.

If they abandon the Dnipro front, which so far is only loose rumors, they do it because they must prioritize and a blown dam is a good indication.

They have actually tried to flood as much as possible of the Dnipro front by blowing up all the dams they had in their area.

After googling around the maps, my guess now is that they will defend the land bridge down to Crimea at suitable points and then some kind of north-south defense line anchored in Melitopol and the crossings south of the city. The defense should be prepared because they have for quite a while built defense in depth all the way down to Crimea.

They abandon half the southern front, consolidate, and buy time.

They probably consider the land tongue down to Crimea easy to defend, and the rest of the front then becomes like a “horseshoe” with Melitopol as the anchor – a smart move simply that I see no direct faults with?

Ukraine crosses the Dnipro with units to both plug the hole to Crimea and then open a second front against the Melitopol line from the west.

After that, you can guess where Ukraine will strike, right – Erik14 gets to keep his five hundred and it will be a street fight along the coast.

But as I said, it is so far completely unconfirmed that the “Dnipro group” is retreating, but when they do, this is presumably what they have planned. Wild speculation on my part.

I am beginning to understand why the unit maps look as they do now. Ukraine had forced this retreat with violence anyway.

Do you remember when Ukraine launched its first combined arms warfare offensive and everyone who previously was convinced we would get WW1 and some kind of static war backed down and acknowledged the new Ukrainian capability.

The strength behind this spring offensive should not be underestimated – Ukraine has been preparing since autumn 2022 and when the winter offensive now did not happen, they have a huge blow prepared.

Then they fight on legendary level from a numerical disadvantage and inflict maximum damage with long-range weapons when they can. Tight poker as someone in the thread coined it.

That said – a bigger mistake from Ukraine and they have brigades wiped out in a day, you cannot afford Russian losses and at Bakhmut they have fought very cleverly and should probably use the same rope trick on the southern front until an opportunity opens and they strike.

It will be a long summer.

We have also discussed that the only cards Russia has left are mobilization and nuclear weapons, mobilization simply has not happened and nuclear weapons will not win them the war anyway so obsolete.

There were no 150,000 reserves in Russia, where the 460,000 armed personnel come from all agencies and so on is unclear, not in Belgorod in any case. My guess is that the owners do not want to waste their resources before the power struggle has begun.
This should ultimately mean that they will not be sent to Ukraine.

The army on the ground in UA is in infinitely poor condition – we have seen it at Bakhmut and we see it now at the southern front.

Then we have at least one Easter egg left – IF the Russians retreat from half of the southern front, there is estimated to be a whole army corps left from the reserves in the 9th or 10th that “do not fit” down there and they are not needed in Bakhmut.

Where it will show up will be very exciting to see.

The uppercut into the soft parts of the darkest Donbass can only come after the southern front is cleared of the last screaming Russians in their pits.

Northern Luhansk (which in the big plan was recaptured over time)?

Or an early last push towards Kerch (which by the way was not part of the big campaign plan).

When the Bakhmut offensive has played out, there will be about a dozen brigades left from that front section to deploy at another front, and I had wondered if they were intended for northern Luhansk.

Now Johan is running way ahead as usual.

There is no shortage of warcraft in Ukraine and it would not surprise me in the least if we have not yet seen the main attack direction at the southern front and that Erik14 gets his five hundred.

Then it seems that they are inflicting existential losses on the Russians with long-range weapons right now and to that the Russians have inflicted self-harm with Khakovka, almost pure self-destructive behavior nowadays almost on par with the big drowning day over at Siversky Donets.

RU is on the defensive on virtually all fronts – something very revealing of their condition is that there was no further offensive from them. It would have been tactically smart of them to try to attack at some front now, northern Luhansk for example or down from the northern front.

There were also reports that RU themselves were preparing for a summer offensive after their chaotic and downright embarrassing winter offensive.

Instead, Ukraine went and invaded Russia and at the border there were some surprised customs officers…

It will be a long summer but RU has already lost the war and it is only a matter of time.

11:11 – MatsExtrude

Thanks for the situation report!

Regarding the length of the summer, I hope (probably in vain) that you are wrong and that Tomas Ledin is right.
It would save many lives if the Russians put their tails between their legs and head home, but they seem completely incapable of making sensible decisions.

11:33 – Johan No.1

About fifty Russians flee at the southern front, video of screaming Russians.

https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1667093175813414913?s=46&t=BjB-APE8ebEIVFlo6RXCRw

12:50 – MatsExtrude

Looks good, more of that!

14:27 – Johan No.1

Nathan Ruser is back 👇

https://twitter.com/nrg8000/status/1667119808494829568?s=46&t=ZBXm0YCUym1wA6ykP_DwQw

17:30 – Johan No.1

I think this one is worth sharing for the archive even though it is disheartening reading.

David D is old school with a wall map and pinned units and a truth seeker, pro-Ukrainian to the fingertips.

They advanced with mine plows but it seems to have quickly gone wrong and most vehicles ran over mines.
Ukraine is, after Russia, the one in modern times that should try to break through mine lines and defense systems without having the full arsenal of the US, they are doing their best and probably learning lightning fast what not to do.

The fact that they get through in some places is a good sign, RU drove in the same tracks for several months and were knocked out every time.

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1667156633602998278?s=46&t=ZBXm0YCUym1wA6ykP_DwQw