11:06 – MatsExtrude
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Did you miss that it said:
我们已经把俄罗斯丢在公共汽车下 a little further down?
11:59 – Johan No.1
Very interesting to say the least 😁
13:32 – Johan No.1
Hello thread, a Google Maps fortification map, easier to navigate I thought.
13:36 – MatsExtrude
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13:37 – Johan No.1
Take a look at the Dnieper and you’ll see that RU flooded its own defenses to a large extent, right? The Dnieper front’s defense south of Khakovka is neutralized by the Russians themselves.
The Popasna line that we have discussed quite a bit is also marked there.
Then we have a point worth raising – all these fortification systems must also be manned; if they are empty, they are nothing.
13:49 – MatsExtrude
The last point, that the fortifications must also be filled, is probably an important one.
Looks like they have dug in deeply but as said, if it’s empty it doesn’t do much good.
Saw an interesting picture of the dam that is starting to dry out a bit. The actual riverbed is apparently furthest west (on the right side) and the rest of the bottom consists largely of sand. So it should be possible to put temporary bridges across and then it’s clear to go. Granted, clear sight so the Russians may have no problem seeing them coming..
We’ll see what they come up with.
15:11 – Johan No.1
Budanov is a very interesting person – in a country where mostly muscles win, a gangly guy born in 1986 holds one of the heaviest positions.
I have guessed that he is an analytical genius who also, somewhat by chance, made a name for himself as SOF after 2014 and gained respect that way.
He was the person who foresaw the war but got no hearing for it – probably even more street cred.
Then this is a country where stars rising too quickly can be seen as threats, so he definitely has the ability, on top of everything else, to navigate a complicated political landscape.
Let me remind you of one of GUR’s mandates –
-Counteracting the external threats that can affect the National security of Ukraine, lives and health of its citizens and the state facilities abroad.
15:12 – Johan No.1
We have probably only seen the beginning of Budanov. Do we know why he didn’t become defense minister?
I guess he is quite satisfied with GUR, more outlet for his creativity.
10:52 – Johan No.1
It was interesting to read that UA took out a vehicle column heading east from Enerhodar yesterday.
According to today’s Accentmannen, the Russian defense of the Dnipro took quite a beating and they have retreated 15km.
From memory, it was the strongest prepared defense at the Dnipro and further back there were islands of defense.
To me, it looks like a big own goal if they intended to defend the Dnipro front going forward. If it was to cover a retreat, that went somewhat poorly as well since they lost quite a lot in the process, but some kind of logic might have been there in that case.
Anyway, there are rumors that they are withdrawing from the Dnipro front and now there is footage of an artillery battery moving from Enerhodar eastward according to the posts.
All rumors as usual and nothing confirmed.
We talked about this phenomenon when the 3rd assault brigade jumped on the Russians in Bakhmut, when UA stormed the trench system it was a rather half-hearted defense.
We all remember the 3 minutes of adrenaline and multitasking in the UA video from Bakhmut, a mechanic soldier holding off two BTRs and two groups of infantry with a pile of weapons and a lot of movement.
We know that UA has fought like that everywhere, stories retold are the same – some group defending too large an area and running between firing positions so they give the impression of being more numerous.
Now that it is the Russians’ turn, it seems that the tank fear is simmering because as soon as they see a tank closer than 30m they run back out into open fields – bad.
(some suspicion that earlier videos where they drove up the trench systems and crushed Russian soldiers with the tracks had a purpose in making the rounds on Telegram…)
Then the shots they manage to fire with their infantry fighting vehicles are not well aimed and they also seem to run and hide in the reinforced trench quite promptly.
They go from defending to no threat at all as soon as UA advances.
https://twitter.com/WarFrontline/status/1667546927381053443?s=20
We see exactly the same on the southern front now in videos being released, UA attacks while outnumbered or at parity, the defense runs into the reinforced trench and waits for the grenade.
The threat is, as always, the task force but they seem to be decimating it as we thought when we discussed it earlier – remotely laid mines and attempts to take them out during the advance.
Then the task force storms into the infantry left behind in the captured trench systems and gets stuck.
Guess – UA attacks at parity or while outnumbered and defeats the defense. Then the task force is knocked out with fewer UA losses reasonably if we go by how it has looked in the war when UA is defending. Not unreasonable that RU:UA losses are 1:3 in UA’s favor now that UA is the attacking party.
Add to that everything they knock out with indirect fire and it’s probably quite a lot.
If they attack along the entire southern front as they are doing now and manage to keep up the pressure, it will likely break at one of the three attack vectors within weeks?
The only thing the Russians can do is abandon the Dnipro front to free up units or pull units from other fronts.
They can’t touch Bakhmut so it would then be between Donetsk – Horlivka and that would just create an opening for UA there instead?
They probably can’t weaken northern Luhansk any further now that the northern front is like a sieve?
The Russian side is running out of manpower and will probably soon have to choose what to defend again.
David D, the legend with the wall map, reasons a bit like us that it is a “numbers game”.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1667702874258698242?s=46&t=P8kyVnCHC8W5dNenKiLoVg
That UA in a little over a week has broken through the first line along the southern front seems to be established now, we have received enough information for it to be considered established fact.
The Russian side has of course tried to carry out their counterattacks and failed.
Then below are completely unconfirmed Twitter rumors and wild speculation –
-that 70% of Russian reserves have already been committed to the fighting.
-that the second line is broken in some place.
-that there is a retreat from the Dnipro line.
-that UA reserves have been pushed forward.
What else?
At Vuhledar there is no significant depth defense.
North of Tokmak there is defense in depth.
Since the Dnipro front just became obsolete, a lot of UA brigades were freed up and I am of the opinion that both army corps in reserve are not needed at the southern front.
We roughly know how much manpower RU has on the southern front and that they are now forced to fight along the entire line.
We know that UA has broken through the first line in several places in a week and without really committing their “new” offensive reserve.
They have also fought on the southern front with maybe 6/20 or something similar?
UA had around 10 existing brigades at the Dnipro front and 10 at the southern front so 20 total.
In addition came the offensive reserve with 20 brigades in the 9th and 10th army corps.
It feels like there is a pool of around 10 offensive brigades in reserve (one of the army corps) that can appear anywhere.
They are not needed in Bakhmut. The eastern attack vector along the southern front is attractive. Then remains the northern front or northern Luhansk.
For those who remember the 90s, the people supported Yeltsin and there was a thaw during that decade where they welcomed Western influences which quickly turned into oligarch-mafia, a strong leader from the old KGB and the rest is history.
It was after 50 years of Soviet dictatorship and the situation in Russia now is not as bad as under the Soviet Union.
There is hope, I think?
The narrative that everything only gets worse if Russia is forced to a humiliating defeat or breaks up I am beginning to suspect is a pro-Russian narrative to scare people.
Then the Soviet Union also split into Russia and a whole bunch of free countries and that has worked, that was 30 years ago.
Why couldn’t part two of this play out now and Russia split into its natural parts to the configuration that is natural?
I continue my mission regarding night fighting. We know from all the weapons deliveries that UA now has a high capability for night fighting and we can guess that the Russian capability extends to things like flares.
Sure, they have some infantry fighting vehicles and some armored vehicles left but those are priority targets in the pre-attack suppression so when UA tries to capture the trench systems it is a lot of infantry fighting vehicles trying to get a hit. It’s not easy when the shadows flicker under the flares.
At the same time as UA infantry in armored vehicles see everything as in daylight, UA drones see exactly where RU is even at night and when the infantry dismounts they have night vision devices.
Then SOF are constantly roaming around with night vision devices as well.
This is an enormous capability difference between UA and RU right now that UA is reasonably exploiting to the fullest.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1667764774036283392?s=46&t=P8kyVnCHC8W5dNenKiLoVg
This is a bit off topic, but now that the noose seems to be tightening around Trump, an unconfirmed Twitter rumor that he was recruited by the KGB as early as 1987 is perhaps a bit too speculative, so I won’t post it.
https://twitter.com/kremlintrolls/status/1667437252119592963?s=46&t=P8kyVnCHC8W5dNenKiLoVg
The solution to all problems with the Russians – set up volunteer units on a large scale.
So we went from 20 new divisions to volunteer units within a year
https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1667732533662961666?s=46&t=P8kyVnCHC8W5dNenKiLoVg
The blog wrote about rumors of fighting in northern Luhansk and the video below is of the 25th Airborne who have taken over a fortification. Besides not being able to figure out why the KSP is aimed straight into the forest, that brigade is up in northern Luhansk.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1667797763482959874?s=46&t=P8kyVnCHC8W5dNenKiLoVg
Saw this on some official account for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs
骄傲的中华人民共和国向史莱姆侏儒宣告死亡