2023-07-14

10:36 – Johan No.1

According to earlier reports, a breakthrough is slowly starting to build up.

At Bakhmut, Russian units are worn out and hanging their heads, and it is the VDV.

UA is still fighting with their assault brigades and some mech brigades that they started with two months ago or whenever it exactly kicked off there.

If they want, they can rotate the number of brigades on the active Bakhmut front 2 more times, and only then will they have gone through the reserves.

On the Russian side, reinforcements have run out and the VDV is now fighting in the trenches or inside Bakhmut.

The logical thing for RU would be to pull back exhausted units to the Svitlodarsk – Popasna line, which by the way seems to extend all the way up to Lysychansk, a bit unexpected, I thought it was Hirske and then Toshkivka, but I probably haven’t checked the elevation maps well enough as usual.

They have planned their defense along this line, but if they are not careful, the combat value of the brigades manning that line will be vanishingly low.

The entire Bakhmut bulge is under great pressure and suddenly RU will conduct their version of an organized retreat, and if there is one thing they have been good at throughout the war, it is slipping out of encirclements, but you don’t win wars that way.

There is also a chance that Horlivka is not well defended – we will see. The task seems to fall on LPR units.

The Russians’ problem right now is that fewer and fewer units are combat-capable at the Bakhmut front; they have probably rotated at least three times over two months while the 3rd Assault Brigade has fought continuously.

Ukraine is pressing towards Klischiivka and Kurdiumivka, they are pushing north of Bakhmut towards Berkivka, Yahidne, Krasna Hora.

Then they attack east of Soledar in the direction of Yakolivka.

Between Soledar – Bilohorivka (just south of Siversky Donets) there are also several maneuver brigades that can advance at the right moment.

As soon as RU starts falling back to the Svitlodarsk – Popasna line (which goes to Lysychansk), this entire front will be in motion.

It won’t be a big “terrain gain” now that we are a bit spoiled after Kherson and Izyum, but they have exhausted many RU brigades including the VDV, and this opens a direct threat to Horlivka and RU must fortify the Svitlodarsk-Popasna line because if UA breaks through there in the direction of Alchevsk, it is a projected threat to the city of Luhansk.

Thus, they will tie up Russian troops in this area AND open a threat to the city of Horlivka.

There, the person who wrote the grand campaign plan, whoever that was, considered the goal of the Bakhmut offensive achieved.

Then maybe it turns out they have run out of units to fortify the Svitlodarsk-Popasna line with, and then it’s probably just to push forward, but we’re not there yet 😀

A big point we discussed a few days ago was that the 810 Marine Infantry fought on the front line at the southern front – they were reserves at the Dnipro front and by now a lot of reserves have already been burned through, including the units that should be fighting on the front line with the marine infantry as a rapid reaction force.

Now we found out that RU artillery fire has decreased sharply and one can understand why – destroyed depots and destroyed artillery.
https://twitter.com/itsartoir/status/1679568387360292867?s=46&t=4VUL9UNG-UfytUxqzeDy9A

Artillery is probably the last thing RU has left, UA has denied them air superiority with their Air Force and they are seriously short on armored vehicles. Now that their artillery has been decimated and firing has noticeably decreased, the playing field is set for somewhat larger movements, provided they get through the minefields.

Then on the topic of somewhat sour RU soldiers at the southern front.
The 72nd Brigade (I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the entire remaining brigade we see in the video 🤣) is not happy at all.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1679570047209971714?s=46&t=4VUL9UNG-UfytUxqzeDy9A

And if you saw the video with Popov, the commander of the 58CAA, he called the Ministry of Defense and the Chief of Staff criminals and incompetent – those were harsh words. He also praised his soldiers as Spartans and gladiators, which was probably a bit much.

Now his wife writes that Popov has disappeared after traveling to get his orders but that she is not worried. She should be very worried.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1679731579751485440?s=46&t=tatVTDmJmmyrLP7iyHG18A

If Ukraine can just keep up the pressure here, it will break, the Kadyrovites run away at the first shot so they are useless. Wagner is basically gone from active combat.
The last +50,000 (relatively) capable units remaining in April 2023 are now being decimated daily.

They have had to handle the defense on the front line instead of being a rapid reaction force and there is only one explanation for that: the army brigades and DPR/LPR units are simply too worn out and cannot handle their combat tasks.

It is crystal clear that the southern front is not getting reinforcements and of the CAA defending the southern front, the 5th CAA was already badly beaten and now the 58th CAA has existential problems.

Around the city of Donetsk there are many DPR units, so there may be some truth in the idea that the darkest Donbass is left to the 1st and 2nd Army corps. They probably do this because they choose to defend Bakhmut and the southern front, and a quick fix is then to hand over responsibility for the darkest Donbass to the rebels and assume they will solve the task excellently.
Feels very Russian to think that way.

The fact is that if the Russian side had not launched their winter offensive and had not been unnecessarily offensive with counterattacks and diversionary attacks, they probably could have prolonged this war much longer.
However, they felt in January that they were threatened by a UA winter offensive and they feel the same now, which is excellent. Like a fox hunt that can only end one way.

Sometimes we forget (all of the West’s) SOF fighting in Ukraine – if there is any capability UA has continuously strengthened, it is SOF, and then we have the partisan movement and the even more shadowy groups that don’t get caught on camera.

Since the Russians now let Spetsnaz fight in the first-line trenches and their own SOF is probably not very numerous, one can guess that UA is wreaking havoc behind the front lines everywhere.

Especially the southern front has had active partisan activity throughout the war and Russian soldiers disappear daily that no one ever sees again.

The text below from Tatarigami (not his, right?) is almost an echo of how we reason in the thread about what the outcome of this war must be and the danger of concessions.

We have been grinding this for a year in the thread but have basically come to the same conclusion – any form of compromise will only encourage Putin to further conquests so it must end here and now.

(how do you write long tweets by the way?)

https://twitter.com/tatarigami_ua/status/1679639665651986433?s=46&t=tatVTDmJmmyrLP7iyHG18A

It will be a long summer as mentioned, but UA is steadily advancing and if the West can just avoid being talked down by Russia, this is over. Since early May, UA has had the entire initiative and all Russian attempts to disrupt have failed.

10:49 – MatsExtrude

👍 Sooner or later it breaks!

12:25 – Johan No.1

Sooner or later it breaks ✊