15:45 – MatsExtrude
+1
DavidD’s calculations sound a bit on the high side to me but if it is true that they have nearly a million on site you can only marvel that they can’t manage much more than shooting artillery and mining..
Of course, it is not a million even if his numbers match because losses are probably higher than AFU’s summary. Partly they don’t see everything and partly many disappear for other reasons.
18:42 – Johan No.1
If you add frostbite cases and what we don’t know, then 800,000 – 900,000 and that includes all branches and all positions.
14:42 – Johan No.1
Dinner with senior executives last Friday and the colleague I have a bet with about two cases of beer mentioned it. Senior executives – “oh my god no, Russia can carry on this war for many years and Ukraine will soon run out of soldiers.” Big consulting firm and they are heads for a continent, so quite high up in the business chain. Stayed silent as one should and gnawed on the beef tenderloin but it is strange what a cult Russia has managed to cultivate around itself and its invincibility actually.
Do you remember that Zelensky said they would respond to the shelling a few weeks ago – now there has been a larger drone attack both naval and air on the naval base at Sevastopol – reportedly exploded for two hours, pizzeria versus battleship 😀
Yesterday we learned that UA now fires 2.5 times more artillery than RU on the southern front – Pstyleone has seriously misinterpreted this as he added up a day’s firing but the signals are many that RU is starting to have difficulty getting indirect fire off on the southern front due to ammunition shortage, knocked-out guns and presumably also lack of gun crews.
When we saw the film of the UA attack where they drove parallel to the defense system, the defenders had a salvo at a fixed coordinate to call in – that was all.
When RU tries the same rope trick they die in a cloud of guided ammunition to then be peppered with suicide drones and drone-dropped wing grenades as they crawl aimlessly across the fields.
At the last low point in September 2022, RU was not short on artillery and UA was weaker than today, the fact was that UA had just stabilized the situation, were exhausted but had slowly started to build up an offensive reserve (this probably happened already during the spring if one is to be precise).
My interpretation is that throughout the war artillery has been the big problem, air and ahkp are a secondary problem that has been easier to deny air superiority through a lot of air defense since the platforms are so expensive that RU hesitates to sacrifice them.
If you remember Lysychansk, UA was supposed to pool together a battle group to push back but Russian artillery smashed it immediately – RU telegrams rejoiced.
We also saw countless videos of Russian artillery and it was absolutely astronomical indirect fire, a constant pounding in the background.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1680307905805926400?s=20
Now it seems the backbone of the artillery is broken at least on the southern front and for a long time they have had problems at Bakhmut.
There is an extensive Russian psyops right now trying to talk the West down – “see how badly UA is doing, they are not advancing, the fronts are basically frozen, let’s freeze the war here and save lives, think of the children and the future.”
A very intense and purposeful campaign to turn the West. We have also heard rumors that “what Ukraine takes this summer they get to keep, the rest goes to Russia in brokered peace” – certainly Russian psyops as well that Western media uncritically publishes.
That was probably the ulterior motive behind all the aggressive counterattacks outside doctrine, to project a Potemkin facade that UA is doing badly when they are really just buying time by sacrificing lives.
The same as with the winter offensive, they have bet everything on red that the West will falter because the defiant and not a little disrespectful second-class citizens in Ukraine refuse to do so – cheeky to say the least.
This while Ukraine purposefully is knocking out the entire Russian weapon branch artillery and making life really hard for Russians in trenches by attacking with numerical inferiority and if resistance is too high – withdrawing and letting the drone swarm take over Normandy-style (minus the drones).
A lot is happening at the fronts right now, Erik14 had an active night shift as usual and most below is shamelessly stolen from him or Matsextrude.
The 7th airborne division has on film informed the defense minister – “don’t touch our commander, you clown.” Last week another commander for the 83rd VDV was dismissed, earlier the entire VDV command was fired and certainly more – dissatisfaction is simmering at VDV thus.
Many officers have also fallen recently, most recently the commander of the independent recon brigade fighting on the southern front. Unclear if it is because they are forced to lead from the front as the situation is tight or if it is UA indirect fire against staff locations. For a reconnaissance brigade to lose its brigade commander is quite unusual.
The fact is that the last time artillery fire dropped significantly and this many senior officers were lost was September 2022 and then RU solved the crisis with a mobilization of 300,000 in panic and by abandoning terrain.
At that time Ukraine was weaker than today and RU, despite the low point, stronger than today because they had more armor, (relatively) capable units and above all artillery.
The likelihood is very high that forced Russian retreats will come here and the bubble list is boiling as usual.
Up in northern Luhansk where RU is trying a diversionary offensive they have zero successes, it is so little that we hardly hear about it and then the Russian side grabs onto absolutely everything right now so we would have heard about it immediately.
Girkin is more depressed than ever, the canary in the coal mine has basically gotten out of the cage and is standing and jumping on it bright red in the face.
It seems confirmed that Wagner is completely gone, 7,000 of the better soldiers in the war and around 15,000 total – a big win for UA.
Here we have DavidD on Russian numbers – he has quite high credibility since he has an analog wall map he moves units on but that should be evaluated like everything else.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1680435420637560832?s=20
If we start on the loss side which he omits, my guess is 1:2 in losses and then non-combat losses on top of that. With today’s numbers it is well over 700,000 who are not combat capable, last winter non-combat injuries were apparently 30-40% at some hospitals in the darkest Donbass.
Then the area is not just front lines and DavidD has a total number that includes all personnel working with maintenance, occupation, depots and so on from all branches.
If one is to guess the numbers that have previously been flying around, 350,000 and then that summary in May from Defmon at each front, the numbers in fighting units from the army?
Rebels, Wagner and apparently not VDV included?
At the start of the war we had the figure 190,000 and to that we added the rebels and Wagner we guessed.
DavidD adds 100,000 airforce (and VDV) to this figure – I thought VDV was included in the army statistics?
I believe the rebels were more than 50,000 at the start of the war because they started a general mobilization quite early and the figure 100,000 was given to us.
100,000 national guard was news but they were probably occupation troops who took over conquered areas. Then 50,000 FSB on top of that for the occupation, sounds reasonable because torture on overtime is probably exhausting.
The question is how many of these have had their base knocked out by HIMARS, or been decimated by partisans or (the whole West’s) SOF during the war?
It seems they fought with the Rosgvardia Chechens at least, and during the Izyum offensive it was SOBR units that were overrun, so not everyone has avoided combat.
Then he fast-forwards to September 2022 and we already knew that conscripts were sent to the fronts quite quickly and how large the total number could be, and 300,000 is not at all impossible.
The mobilization of 300,000 is also generally known.
I’m a bit skeptical about those volunteer battalions BUT maybe he counts them in the 20,000 – 30,000 mobilized each month continuously, which would bring them to that total roughly.
We know they mobilized railway workers and we know Wagner and others mobilized in prisons, so likely numbers.
Then 200,000 is an additional Rosgvardia sensation.
Suddenly you understand why Belgorod was empty and why Wagner could move unhindered to Moscow – half of the FSB and the entire Rosgvardia are in Ukraine…
If you remember my constant question about where those 450,000 soldiers that all agencies have are somewhere, the answer is that 350,000 of them are in Ukraine and the remaining 100,000 should suffice for all of Russia.
The only numbers I am doubtful about are whether the VDV were added or if they were counted in the ground forces and if the volunteer battalions were the whole 300,000, but then he simultaneously has a low figure for the rebels and forgot Wagner at the start of the war, so the total might not be entirely wrong within a margin of error?
You should not make the mistake of thinking that everyone is in the trenches – there is a large number on Crimea, there are occupation units in all occupied areas, there is depot personnel, logistics, there is base personnel, naval bases, air bases, and so on.
The fighting brigades at the forefront are significantly fewer and even in them artillery, air defense, logistics, and so on make up a significant part of their numbers.
What I take away from DavidD is that Russia has sent everything they have and is losing.
(we have previously heard that 97% of the ground forces were involved in the war, so no news).
The other thing I take away is that I now know where the 450,000 soldiers for the necessary repression of the citizens are – they are largely in Ukraine, half of the FSB and most of the Rosgvardia.
I also think one should exclude Rosgvardia and FSB going forward because they will likely refuse to fight as it is not their role and there is no unit with the function to force them to do anything since they are the coercive function 😀
Ukraine probably has 500,000 in maneuver brigades since Territorial Defense is now counted as capable infantry and thus has the numbers on its side besides capability and equipment.
In SOF Ukraine also has the numbers as Russia wastes its reconnaissance and Spetsnaz in infantry combat, the highlight was when 30 attack divers died on a hill north of Kharkiv.
If you remember the discussion about Western restrictions – we KNOW that the West did not want their weapons to be used on Russian territory.
We have heard rumors that UA was not allowed to attack the May 9 parade and anniversary and that some of Budanov’s funniest exploits got the thumbs down.
We know that the Belgorod raids that went sensationally well have been paused.
We know that Belgium got very upset that their UN carbines were used in the above raids.
Here Zanyshyi expresses some frustration over the restrictions on Western weapons used on Russian territory.
https://twitter.com/irynabuczkowski/status/1680204576945762304?s=46&t=95dIqKw7zMogNkexujvkIQ
I sincerely hope Ukraine is street-smart here and thinks about its own future and does not listen to anxious leaders in the West.
Every decision to hold back weapons means Ukrainian infantry must fight without them and die completely unnecessarily, an enormous dissonance from the West.
The accent man is far ahead of the maps right now but he has high credibility as a source and has himself written that he must get the videos approved.
What I took away is that UA has retaken the fortification at Klischiivka and that RU tried to conduct counterattacks with all available units but failed, they had to deploy Kadyrovites who ran at the first shot.
RU conducts these counterattacks because the situation for the units in the built-up area in Bakhmut is bad.
Since they fail as expected, the next step is to abandon the built-up area in Bakhmut when it becomes untenable.
That ball is already rolling.
https://youtu.be/H9cwAJspt9U
Then it seems Staromaiorske is now taken.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1680459876898598913?s=46&t=95dIqKw7zMogNkexujvkIQ
I mixed up Staromlynivka with this and it is not 6 km left but 12-13 km until the first line is broken through – I will punish myself with a whisky tonight 👍
Then UA has taken some settlement south of Vuhledar so things are moving a bit everywhere as they should on this Sunday morning.
A reflection on Popov and the 58th CAA – it is one of the CAAs that has fought the least in the last six months reasonably, they have been exposed now when the window for offensive operations opened and it started at the southern front. I don’t think it was that army that lost all brigades at Vuhledar during the winter offensive and not the army that has been at the Dnipro front so they have only recently started taking losses. The southern front has been quiet for a long time.
That they now say they are worn down should be very significant I think since other CAAs in the area are in much worse shape than them?
Then we must not forget that Ukraine is currently the attacking party and the defenders are VDV, Marine infantry, Reconnaissance and Spetsnaz – they fight against the best Russia can field and win.