17:30 – MatsExtrude
Thank you!
Even though you are fully prepared that it will take time, it is easy for it to wear on your mood a bit, when successes do come, but in very small steps.
You start wondering how many months it will take at this pace.
Then it’s nice that you offer a Johan-pill and remind that it will break eventually and then it will go fast!
I myself guessed it will happen during the first half of August.
If nothing more decisive has happened when we enter September, there is some risk that I will start to doubt..
But summer is long!
17:32 – MatsExtrude
Thank you!
Even though you are fully prepared that it will take time, it is easy for it to wear on your mood a bit, when successes do come, but in very small steps.
You start wondering how many months it will take at this pace.
Then it’s nice that you offer a Johan-pill and remind that it will break eventually and then it will go fast!
I myself guessed it will happen during the first half of August.
If nothing more decisive has happened when we enter September, there is a small risk that I will start to doubt..
But summer is long!
13:44 – Johan No.1
Yes, I also feel that one wants to see more happening at the fronts, but this is how the war will look until the Russian organized retreat (leave everything except the truck and flee). This is exactly how we sat with Kherson for months and then the whole front collapsed overnight in Operation Badanka, which fortunately was documented when the history revisionist Dengamle tried to claim that it never happened.
It is impossible to predict the timing at the southern front, but when UA breaks through and reaches Azov (direct fire on the V-E road with tanks or excellent indirect fire and reconnaissance), then it is game over for all units west of the breakthrough point.
Over time they will retreat down to Crimea – that is the only remaining retreat route they have.
Since UA then has broken through all defense lines, they can start pressing west “behind” the entire southern front, and if they rush towards the land bridge down to Crimea, the southern front will probably be emptied quite quickly.
According to the one who wrote the big campaign plan, the units will then be trapped in Crimea or retreat over the bridge – he still can’t decide what is smartest, a fickle individual that one…
UA is plugging the land bridge down to Crimea with two brigades and then the remaining +20 units are moving northeast to the area east of the city of Donetsk along the UA land border which they are reinforcing again.
What is RU supposed to do then?
They have all units on active fronts and suddenly a huge hole has been torn open in the flank that they can’t do much about.
The first thing they must do is secure the city of Rostov na Don so available reserves will reasonably be used for that. Since the city is currently completely undefended, they will need to push in a considerable number of brigades there.
Simply a bad situation and it will happen very fast when it happens.
Everyone understands that Bakhmut ties up Russian units and is a prestige thing rather than smart warfare. They could have fallen back to the Severodonetsk – Popasna line already.
I’m starting to get the distinct feeling that Russia has given up here. Yesterday MRF posted how we wrote in the thread on July 18, 2022, and it made me think about what a high level of ambition they had during the autumn to stabilize the situation at the low point in September.
They gave up terrain, they fortified, they mobilized, and they pulled all political strings they could. Iran and others delivered ammunition and they had a brilliant plan for a violent winter offensive that would change how the world saw Russia.
They carried out missile attacks with 100 every other week and Ukraine had to work hard.
Now they just hang their heads and do nothing when the situation is worse than a year ago.
Diplomacy is in tatters, Girkin talks about revolution, Wagner made a half-revolution, Ukraine invaded Belgorod and Wagner withdrew.
They are on their way to losing Bakhmut, half of the commanders at the southern front are being fired, VDV posts threatening videos to Shoigu, and they have ammunition rationing and are fighting with T54-55 tanks…
When they want to punish the rebellious Ukrainians with missiles they manage to launch 16…
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1681544229489717249?s=46&t=KReYlIm8AYmeSRMNn-XuWw
What has worked unpleasantly well are all the minefields but you don’t win wars with mines.
There is one thing Russia could do to prolong this war – reinforcements to the southern front in large numbers but that is not happening because there are none since they have not mobilized.
Ukraine has one of those green waves with the traffic lights right now I think, good news after good news.
At Bakhmut, Klischiivka is basically done and the built-up area in Bakhmut is only a matter of time.
Their offensive at the Bakhmut front is increasing rather than decreasing and they have been at it for 1.5 months.
Then the purge is ongoing in Russia after Prigozhin’s attempted palace coup and not even the GRU is safe.
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1681620278600687617?s=46&t=KReYlIm8AYmeSRMNn-XuWw
A lot has happened since the window for the offensive opened on May 4, 2023, and we have just as much time left until the ground bearing capacity possibly worsens and then the heavy work is already done.
Positive-Positive thus.