12:19 – Johan No.1
I forgot to discuss one thing that struck me when I was watching my buddy Accentmannen.
UA has managed to create exactly the same conditions on the southern front as in Kherson with the logistics.
They are hitting all the supplies and depots they can and they are knocking out the bridges.
So it will be the same problem with logistics and this time (according to Accentmannen) the Russians have already moved everything down to Crimea.
It will end the same way as in Kherson then 👍
12:26 – Johan No.1
Don’t know if I was last on this but eagle-eyed Accentmannen showed that the driver jumped out of the vehicle that went down into the tank ditch and he thought they should test if it was possible to just drive over – the Ukrainians are cunning as ferrets.
Then when you see the whole battle at Robotyne and how Ukraine completely outclasses the Russian team you feel confident that this is going in the right direction.
12:33 – Johan No.1
The breakthrough of a front line is probably clear now?
https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1686314119949938688?s=46&t=w0c42uzWYVSPtmPgx0yieA
12:36 – MatsExtrude
👍
Yes, one starts to wonder if any of the bubbles can actually happen before the Russians get a big beating. In a way it might be better with a big beating but the most important thing is still that the war ends as soon as possible.
12:39 – Johan No.1
I have thought that if that was the case Putin would not have fled to St Petersburg and hidden.
If it had been a plan then Putin would have stood outside the Kremlin on an Armata and spoken to the masses because he would have known that Wagner would stay 😀
More likely that he persuaded Prigozin who is a shady character and that Prigozin threw all his helpers under the bus for his own gain.
Now Prigozin has gotten Africa so it seems he came out winning from this.
12:40 – MatsExtrude
Agree. If they can continue to destroy the logistics at the same pace as so far it will be unsustainable for the Russians.
12:41 – Johan No.1
I believe completely without any indications that we will soon see a violent invasion of Belgorod, Kursk and Voronezh oblasts by UA.
12:41 – Johan No.1
Then we will probably approach a – “the special operation is won and finished, can we get our oblasts back please”.
12:45 – MatsExtrude
Yes, absolutely!
12:53 – MatsExtrude
Hope so, I think that would be the fastest way to get the Russians to give up!
12:54 – MatsExtrude
😆
13:22 – Johan No.1
Fast learning curve 👍
13:26 – Johan No.1
Yes the first raids went insanely well and were extremely hard for Putin to handle.
13:27 – Johan No.1
Hope they get thirsty too, water is probably not the first thing you send.
13:35 – MatsExtrude
I would have shined if I had faced Pavlov’s dogs!
13:42 – Johan No.1
🤣🤣
13:57 – Johan No.1
Here is an interesting analysis of the situation.
https://twitter.com/raduhossu/status/1686193209582481408?s=46&t=aBWJ_KvAhg3avHNHjWGgAw
14:06 – MatsExtrude
👍
(As interesting now as early this morning when FRAM I NATTEN posted it).
14:22 – Johan No.1
🤣🤣 my life as second or third.
14:30 – MatsExtrude
As long as you’re on the podium it’s totally okay! 😆
In your defense he posted it before 6 in yesterday’s thread and definitely worth replays from that, since not everyone reads there.
08:04 – Johan No.1
Here we have about reserves, 25 CAA
https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/1686617177497944065?s=46&t=3tVuQstgYK2b48vQ7AuPfQ
08:27 – MatsExtrude
Let’s see what comes of that. Probably just prolongs the suffering.
08:44 – Johan No.1
Can’t find anything about it.
09:12 – MatsExtrude
Russian paper tiger..
12:02 – Johan No.1
It now seems like there could finally be “fuel riots,” luckily I had already stocked up on some rum and the cook got a shopping list for weeks in isolation where the first and actually only item was more beer, and then the colleague wanted his cheese too, so that became item number two, a bit too long.
I have guessed that it is time for popular protests as fuel prices have quadrupled in a few months.
Feels like this could turn into a real mess and the last time I was in a country where the government started to feel threatened, they played it safe and blamed everything on all foreign workers on national TV during prime time. Back then, the citizens were angry enough at their own government not to take the bait, but one is somewhat worried if that trick would work better here.
At the fronts, things actually look quite bright, the opsec blanket is on but between the lines you can read that UA is advancing almost everywhere and increasing the intensity.
Something extremely positive is that RU is defending at Kamyanske through violent counterattacks, which is the farthest west at the southern front. Anything that pulls units westward is good.
Then one is quite curious about what PerraG55 hears going forward because it seems crystal clear that they have put a muzzle on the worst warmongers.
And then they have fired a whole bunch of senior officers at the frontline units.
As well as, according to someone, having about 20 senior officers imprisoned who were somehow associated with the Wagner coup.
At the same time, Wagner has NOT really been prosecuted and Prigozhin is running around as if nothing has happened. BUT they have sent Wagner to Belarus so they are not near Moscow…
There were 35 Wagner officers and Prigozhin in Moscow for the negotiation and then everyone went to Belarus, while many high-ranking officers were arrested because they might have had something to do with the coup.
What can be read from this?
-the power is worried about the army’s loyalty maybe?
-the power wants for some reason to calm the worst warmongers and then it’s not because they want to incite the country Russia to more war, right?
-the power overlooked Wagner’s part in the coup and to avoid a new one in the future, they were moved to Belarus and now to Africa and the recolonization of that continent?
Does the power really want the war in Ukraine? They are very interested in making money through Wagner as the mafia organization they are and if they start worrying about the army’s loyalty, it almost feels like trying to end the war is high on the agenda.
I feel more and more that we are approaching the point where Putin one day will come out and announce to us all that the goals of the special operation have been achieved and therefore they can withdraw from all of Ukraine, and that they do not need Crimea (because they cannot keep Crimea).
This Don Corleone gang is primarily interested in themselves and I am quite sure they are now worried.
Then maybe they do not have the support of the FSB, GRU and the other letter agencies at all and then they will fall, but if they can end the war and then in an election get their new candidate in and maintain the status quo, that would probably be best for everyone in the corrupt elite?
And then over time loosen the sanctions with lies and psyops that trick the West as usual?
On the bubble list we have three candidates high up –
-The army refuses war.
-There is a palace coup and a new candidate takes over and the war ends.
-They leave Ukraine because the operation has succeeded and the goals are achieved.
The first two are really bad for Putin et al but does he understand the seriousness of the situation?
The first point is terrible for the next candidate who could take over because then there is a potential revolution from the army that could be very difficult to handle.
The question then is what comes first – palace coup or ordering a retreat?
Who knows…
Or, Dengamle knows but it’s still under wraps, right now he is also sitting on the front tank wrapped in the Swedish flag and chugging Obolon. Completely impossible to get anything sensible out of him right now when he is in “the zone,” only responds with lots of violent emojis.
For me one thing is very clear and Solros2022 has often written about this – Russia is a mafia organization with a country and they just want to make money. How Wagner is treated makes this very clear because Wagner in Africa means many nice billions for the elite in Moscow.
They thought the Ukraine war would be a quick smash-and-grab and that they would become even richer.
Right now fortunes are being lost and the internal tensions are great.
The natural step is to end the Ukraine war and return to fooling the West and destabilizing weak states so they can steal their money and natural resources.
Then we must not forget the plundering of the country Russia – the last thing all Don Corleones want is a popular revolution. An oppressed and controllable population is very important to them and their continued plundering.
If Putin is not on board with this course change yet, he probably will be very soon or alternatively finds himself outmaneuvered.
This thing with Potemkin facades seems to exist in several countries. I give you the black bears at a zoo in China that clearly are not what they claim to be…
https://twitter.com/gunsnrosesgirl3/status/1686060866758754305?s=46&t=KgCC4BuK4_uy2kaf7d80AQ
Back to the war, here you have a text from MoD that is like soothing elevator music.
https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/1686249521964085248?s=46&t=w0c42uzWYVSPtmPgx0yieA
Now there is also strategic communication from the USA that is good, security guarantees.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1686246855393288192?s=46&t=w0c42uzWYVSPtmPgx0yieA
And now we can stop guessing, according to the man who really knows, the entire Russian army is now fighting in Ukraine (and they are losing…). So it is Zelensky I am talking about, not myself.
My extension on this is that what we now see is the Russian army’s last battle, their (relatively) capable offensive reserve is being lost.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1686050172474736642?s=46&t=6SsiyE4UriTMgrgHSvZDVw
Right now the Russians are fighting as if to buy time. For example, to bring down large amounts of reinforcements to the southern front and the Popasna-Svitlodarsk line which manages to go on the defense.
Now there is only one problem – RU has no reserves that they put into defense, we hear nothing.
So it would have needed hundreds of thousands to make a difference and we have zero information on that.
The Russian tactic has an expiration date and if UA now increases the intensity as we have guessed, it will break and we will have to rename Potemkin facade to Putin facade.
Gerasimov is at the southern front – they are worried now.
Long summer as has been said a couple of times but this is going very well, legendary level.
Even the strategic communication seems to be improving and Macron has not had any relapses into abuse for a long time.