10:21 – Johan No.1
The concern was completely unfounded 😀
Everyone at the meeting in Saudi recognizes Ukraine’s right to its territorial integrity.
Strategic communication at its best, what an enormous amplifier that was.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1688098958810173440?s=46&t=cdybBJtjrSl-v9Q7FUyJOg
10:32 – Johan No.1
Russian psyops again, sorry if it’s getting repetitive –
We have been writing for a while that Russia is trying to talk the West down, and it is starting to reach hurricane strength now. It would be downright embarrassing if the West lets itself be talked down now when Ukraine is well on its way to winning, but this should probably be taken seriously because if there is one thing the Russians are really good at, it is exactly this.
We will see what comes out of the meeting in Saudi; early indications are that the concern was completely unfounded and that the meeting has agreed that Ukraine’s territorial integrity applies.
The UN managed to criticize Ukraine twice, first the drones against Moscow and then the drone attack on the ships.
Their silence regarding missile attacks, Enerhodar, Khakovka (ok, Guterres made a statement), the grain, threats to international shipping, and the war in general has probably not escaped anyone.
BBC manages to hit a doomsday article where they argue that continued fighting is pointless.
Der Spiegel has a long article on how Germany promises but never delivers what it promised – lies from beginning to end.
https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1687891184075612161?s=46&t=cdybBJtjrSl-v9Q7FUyJOg
It has come out that AfD in Germany has worked together with the FSB to try to reduce Western support.
https://twitter.com/john_a_ridge/status/1687856195279708160?s=46&t=rNVIDCyRg0VAs5GNd-dTcA
Since the West is democracies, this kind of thing works – the prime minister sits at breakfast reading what newspapers write and is influenced by it if credible media writes something, the signal value is great when BBC writes that continuing the war is pointless.
When packages are to be voted through parliament, those the Russians have reached slow them down, and so on.
Posted in yesterday’s thread by shining legends, but in Germany there are peace demonstrations and there was one in Sweden too, right?
They come just as Russia is pushing out its narrative and are considered influence operations as well.
https://twitter.com/golub/status/1688057603010486272?s=46&t=cdybBJtjrSl-v9Q7FUyJOg
The narrative RU is pushing is that it is pointless to continue supporting Ukraine because they cannot win.
At the same time, they are using up their entire army to buy time to project that image on the battlefield.
The quick-witted realize that it is the Russians who are weak here, not Ukraine, and that continuing to provide more support would give the desired result quite quickly, but the West has in fact not acted in that way.
Russian subversive activities and psyops are very effective, and there is a real risk that they succeed in swaying opinion here in various countries.
Of the 40 countries in Saudi, a number are certainly there to push the Russian narrative.
Here Kiev Independent discusses that it is Russian influence to undermine relations between Ukraine and the West.
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1688011538169307136?s=46&t=cdybBJtjrSl-v9Q7FUyJOg
The other thing we are seeing right now, which I very clumsily warned about yesterday, where I meant to warn so we wouldn’t accidentally forward the message in the thread, is Belarus – Poland.
It is clear that the narrative is that Poland and the Baltics are heavily reinforcing the border, which is an incorrect picture.
The other is that provocations are being made on the ground and Wagner has been brought in.
They want to reinforce that the conflict is spreading, but the goal is unclear, drag Belarus in?, give casus belli to China?, try to scare the West?
Something is going on, and the smart thing is to meet all of it with total silence.
That ground-launched missile fits into this as well, and there is always a group that immediately screams that Belarus must be bombed to the Stone Age and NATO must intervene.
I have thought a lot about the attack helicopters. They are useless when you don’t have air superiority, and many have been shot down by air defense, but I thought IFVs had the capability to shoot them down with their autocannons, which they apparently do not.
I guess when they fight like the US does, jumping up and down over treetops, they are hard to hit?
RU seems to have lost the 20 or so they deployed on the southern front over a couple of weeks if I counted correctly, and then they have been cautious.
The weapon system is expensive, vulnerable, and sensitive to maintenance deficiencies.
– do you think the attack helicopters will be replaced by drone weapons or do they have a future?
10:56 – MatsExtrude
👍At first, one believed in a much earlier breakthrough, but what has prevented it is partly the minefields (which of course one should have figured out), and partly that the Russians seem to do everything to not give up a meter if they can avoid it.
I think you are right in the analysis that when it finally breaks, there won’t be much left behind. I’m afraid it might be almost as bad with the minefields, but if it’s thin otherwise, it’s still not insurmountable problems, but of course it will go slower.
What worries me a bit is that it must not drag on too long. Quite a lot of rain could come within a couple of weeks. That could slow the pace considerably and then it drags out even more, and in the worst case, there will be another winter.
Russia is obviously doomed and most people probably know it, but you want it to end as soon as possible.
Now I think things will start moving in the coming weeks. It feels a bit like we’ve reached the peak when it comes to pre-combat operations and the Russians are probably starting to have trouble supplying both equipment and personnel.
10:59 – MatsExtrude
👍Good!
I have to say I was never worried, as I wrote in a post I thought it was more about consolidating Ukraine’s position and demands.
Russia wasn’t even invited.
11:19 – Johan No.1
It’s impossible to keep track of everything but I recall that the reconnaissance battles and pre-combat operations started in April this year after the Russians’ winter offensive died out on its own.
Four months of constant disrupted maintenance and logistics – it must be in total chaos now.
We have also confirmed that the artillery barrels have gone silent (got that in…) on the Russian side somewhat, and in every conversation there are complaints about lack of food or water.
11:20 – Johan No.1
Legend, calm in all situations 👍
11:26 – MatsExtrude
I’m not so worried about their psyops in the near term. I think most understand that it’s a sign they’re starting to get desperate. The militarily knowledgeable probably see through it and there is also a lot written explaining why it takes time and that it doesn’t mean Ukraine won’t be able to make progress.
However, if it turns out that Ukraine doesn’t achieve any major successes before the new year, I am worried about what it will look like by spring.
Then unfortunately many will probably start to believe that the war is pointless “because Ukraine won’t be able to defeat Russia.” Even though it’s the opposite. As long as the West provides solid support, Russia gets weaker.
11:29 – MatsExtrude
That might be an exaggeration but on this particular issue, which also happened on Ukraine’s initiative, I felt calm.
11:32 – Johan No.1
Haha, exactly, it’s Russia that has failed to defeat Ukraine but somehow the goalposts have shifted to it being Ukraine that can’t win because they immediately set the goal that they must liberate their entire country within five weeks.
11:36 – MatsExtrude
Yes, that’s right, they increased the pressure in April and then Storm Shadow etc. have been very effective. The increase in destroyed artillery has stopped but remains at a high level. There’s still something to take from but the logistics must have taken a big hit.
I think it’s time soon. Though ideally I would have liked them to enter Russia first. That chaos could be enough to make everything collapse.
11:48 – MatsExtrude
Exactly, that’s how it is, it’s Russia that is failing and not the other way around!
We have to take some responsibility for those high expectations!
We also imagined that in mid-April they would reach Azov in a few weeks once the counteroffensive started, so we’re partly to blame. 😆
Then we were probably quick to adjust when it actually got going and we saw what happened. Many don’t seem to have caught up on that even though several weeks have passed.
Ukraine is doing exactly right with what they have. Everyone in the West who complains should make sure Ukraine gets what they’ve asked for!
12:34 – Johan No.1
Until this spring it was pep talk and Ukraine’s brigades are unstoppable but not as fast as NATO doctrine stipulated, which was guessed they would use.
As soon as the 3rd assault brigade started in Bakhmut, we guessed it would look like that and that’s how it has looked so far, very street-smart fighting.
12:41 – Johan No.1
One hopes so MXT, I probably still have that sinking feeling from early in the war when everyone threw Ukraine under the bus in the most characterless ways.
14:11 – Johan No.1
If you remember my friend in the bunker in Altai who usually WhatsApps me, I just got a voice message.
“Do you possibly know when they’re sending the Zoom link for the BRICS meeting in Africa?
It was supposed to come last week so they must be delayed..”
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1688151154192990209?s=46&t=XDuLUFJv2lVi4k5LtaGMAw
14:12 – Johan No.1
They even got China on board, the same China that stopped selling drones to Russia 😂😂
14:14 – Johan No.1
In terms of amplification, this one was absolutely enormous.
15:01 – MatsExtrude
Ugh yes.
I hope we are in a different phase now. I perceived there was both a certain paralysis, fear of escalation, and probably also some confusion where no one really knew how to act and mostly waited for everyone else. They didn’t throw Ukraine under the bus but stood and watched as the bus ran over Ukraine..
Maybe especially when Germany finally gave in regarding tanks, it still felt like the first phase was finally over after several other steps had been taken along the way.
It does feel a bit like we’re back there but in a different way.
Now it’s a bit half-waiting, like waiting to see what Ukraine can achieve with what they have. At the same time, the US and several others have actually been sending more material all the time but mostly just to replenish and nothing decisive.
I think they are both stingy and afraid to give too much. If it turns out Ukraine has continued small successes but at a level where they are confident Russia is not advancing, I am convinced they are ready to continue supplying material and maybe increase..
I think they will make sure Ukraine wins but it’s damn cynical that they let it drag on.
15:03 – Johan No.1
I usually discuss a bit from time to time, a civil engineer who now (again) works internationally with port constructions as the client’s project manager.
I grew up with the Soviet Union, military service defending against the Soviet Union, the shortest military career in Sweden’s history after that, and sat for several years in a forum about submarine violations so I’ve followed that country for a long time but not even close to PerraG55.
Then many believe the stories about Budanov are made up but I am not allowed to comment on that.
15:34 – MatsExtrude
👍🤣
17:31 – Johan No.1
One thing we KNOW is that as soon as the Russians have something to show, we get a hundred videos from different angles.
Oryx has probably about 20% of Western equipment destroyed but many vehicles have been driven to workshops and the crews survived.
Slava always has the worst possible videos but those who really do the rounds like that mechanic company that drove into a minefield we don’t see more of.
I am among those who believe Ukraine is telling the truth when they say 1:5 in losses in their favor.
10:17 – Johan No.1
The USA built somewhat of a cult around being the defenders of democracy before the Kuwait wars and Iraq wars. Eventually, enough non-democratic acts of violence had come to light to puncture that image, and there is certainly some doubt about the value of destroying Libya or Iraq.
The real defenders of democracy are the Ukrainian shooters; those lions defend all of Europe without complaining or demanding anything around the clock.
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1687829411251314689?s=46&t=rNVIDCyRg0VAs5GNd-dTcA
The fortification map has now been updated and it’s dizzying to see the amount of fortifications RU has built.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1rRKs40IEbGRsV0Fhky25l5OkPJ_vUvQ&ll=46.96352363852255%2C36.01069115194661&z=7
It is crystal clear to me that all the defense lines we see on this map are not fully manned.
What RU is probably doing on the southern front is rotating out worn-out units that then have to defend the next defense line or the main defense line.
When UA arrives there, it’s units that have taken heavy losses over two months and had about a month’s rest – weak and poor combat value is very likely.
100,000 at the southern front is a very small number considering the amount of fortifications and how they have fought so far with constant counterattacks.
Earlier during the winter offensive, we had a burn-rate of Russian brigades of 1-2 weeks, after which the next brigade had to attack across the fields.
They have probably gone through quite a few units at the southern front already, and the fact that they rotated in all competent units from the Dnipro front already 1.5 months ago suggests they were already running short on reserves then.
According to quite a few sources, only reserves from other fronts are coming to the southern front, and it doesn’t seem to be in the numbers or with the capability that would be needed.
I have read very little about reinforcements lately, and during the winter offensive we always knew which units RU rotated and sent forward, and it was the same at Bakhmut in the spring.
Now we have had reports of two military convoys, one through Mariupol and one up from Crimea, and it was probably artillery, trucks, and some APCs.
If it had been a convoy with 200 T90s, we would have known because it would have overwhelmed Twitter.
For example, one like this, it was probably Esset who posted it about 30 T72s.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1687874185706795008
The critical points –
– Are there RU reserves – I don’t think so.
– Are the two remaining lines as densely mined as the front line – I suspect they are not.
– Does UA have enough offensive reserves to hold and increase the tempo – I believe they do.
I am actually surprised that RU has not yet abandoned the Dnipro front to send all units to the southern front and create a horseshoe defense. We do know that they took all offensive reserves from there, but the rest of the second-tier units are holding on in the area. Then they would have prepared for a retreat eastwards and defended the land bridge down to Crimea.
There is another dimension to this – that it might be an order from the highest level not to give up an inch anywhere. That would fit well with RU trying to talk down the West, which we will return to below.
In the long run, this means that when it breaks, it will totally collapse for the Russian command as they have not prepared a timely retreat from the southern front.
All that is really needed is for Ukraine to break through the main defense line and spread out like a fan, then panic will ensue. The driving time between a breakthrough and Azov is maybe an hour by car, about the same as from Stockholm to Knivsta, so the distances are not large.
As said, everything is guesses until it’s not anymore, but that progress is being made everywhere is indisputable, and that RU has already committed its competent offensive reserves at the southern front we also know.
From our spectator’s perspective, one can only conclude that the “number game” we started writing about when the 3rd Assault brigade began offensive operations at Bakhmut is going very well?
We see UA fighting at a numerical disadvantage and inflicting five times the losses on RU that they themselves take, while at the same time taking and widening their breakthroughs.
We wrote when the 3rd Assault brigade started fighting at Bakhmut that the likelihood was high that this is how it would look going forward?
That it wouldn’t be a button press and 40 brigades forward – high risk of losses and then some stories about orange juice mixers all over the training fields and how you lose a brigade in a morning.
Amid all the disappointment over the lack of brigade attacks, MickeUppsala wrote that imagine if they take the entire southern front this way.
Throughout the entire war, UA has captured areas when RU has been forced to retreat because they ended up in a bad situation.
Up at Kharkiv it was a composite brigade but it came at the right time when DPR and the retirement home had to defend with the seventh-tier units.
When they broke through at Izyum, they reportedly put 15 tanks at the front and it was just a minefield.
At Kherson they advanced when RU chose to retreat and Operation Badanka became the rear guard. If you remember the photo from mobile phones, many probably went and drowned and it was pure Dunkirk with all the small boats.
In hindsight, it has emerged that UA defeated 1 GTA in battle above Izyum and that they didn’t slip out as we thought then, so the idea was probably to hold that terrain but they were hopeless when UA came from the north instead of the south.
At some point it will break at the southern front and if they don’t have competent command that has prepared a multi-step retreat, it will be total chaos.
Kuwait Highway 3.0 (since we have already had a bunch of knocked-out convoys).
If the retreat is prepared, the first sign will be the artillery firing up all ammunition.
Then we will get reports of convoys heading south towards Crimea which are the better units.
It feels like they are reaching the end of the pre-battle suppression of logistics when they cut the oil tankers in Novorossiysk (the port…).
There is not much going on at Mariupol and Melitopol anymore; it has moved down to Crimea.
That probably also means that frontline artillery and HIMARS can focus all their efforts on making life miserable for Russians in trenches clustered 24-7 now.
Reports have started coming in about clustered Russians at the main defense line.
The ombudsman posted the article below from the Times yesterday and I took the time to read through it, quite long.
I agreed with every word and felt that we had discussed everything they wrote in the thread and reached exactly the same conclusions 👍
They understood Bakhmut (and why the pro-Ukrainians who previously criticized Bakhmut harshly were wrong).
Notably, they also do not see Russian reserves.
Especially liked this ¬ – “The theater geometry may come to play a critical role here as well—the Russians have to win every time; the Ukrainians only have to win once.”
Absolutely brilliant to put it into words.
How the Ukraine Counteroffensive Can Still Succeed | Time
UA’s “ant hill” tactic locks all Russian units, and it only takes a breakthrough at one point to collapse the entire southern front – Lex the French.
The southern front is more of a trap for the Russians than something they are luring Ukraine into, as some seem to believe.
Anyway, incredibly fun to see a serious article that arrives at exactly the same conclusions and interprets the information in the same way we have.
If we take off from the big campaign plan, the author believes the plan is being followed.
We are now at the stage where Bakhmut has tied down Russian troops and is playing out, attacks are being carried out on the southern front, and the crossing of the Dnieper has been completed.
The offensive started late but there are certainly two months of decent weather left to run over the Russians in a hole.
The only thing that is not happening, and which I believe is pressure-motivated, is that Ukraine is not inside Russia wreaking havoc up at the northern front, which is very unfortunate.
That Ukraine is now shifting its carpet bombing to Crimea reasonably means they have wiped out the logistics behind the southern front?