11:43 – MatsExtrude
+100
The question is whether Putin manages to scare everyone who is against him or if, on the contrary, they realize that he must go.
The army should at least start getting tired. When they see how Wagner is treated, those who nevertheless stood for the successes and much of the losses, maybe they realize that they themselves are also just expendable in a war they cannot win.
That Putin would give up the war could of course be a bubble, and that is why he is getting rid of the worst warmongers. It’s about silencing them if he is to get out of it unscathed. Now I don’t think he is planning to give up, but maybe he is clearing the way in case it ends that way or because he is afraid they will replace him.
Now it might actually be worse if the warmongers took power. Putin has refrained from using tactical nuclear weapons, but the most fanatical might make a different assessment. So they are welcome to cause internal trouble in Russia but not take power. Then I’d rather see the army have had enough.
It’s almost as interesting now as when Prigozhin marched on Moscow, with the difference that we can’t follow it the same way since most of it happens in secret.
11:05 – Johan No.1
When it comes to major doubts about Ukraine’s spring offensive, raise your hand if you don’t believe that the sharpest minds from the USA and other countries are coaching Ukraine?
Ukraine has limitations, and one can probably guess that some Western commanders were locked out after forcing UA to fight according to NATO doctrine (rumor), and UA actually has material limitations to deal with, but overall they probably receive very good advice to consider or reject.
Despite the pro-Russian narrative that Western volunteers have abandoned Ukraine, there are countless numbers left in all sorts of different units, and they convey their knowledge to the unit every day – that learning should not be forgotten either.
The way the 3rd Assault Brigade fought when they cleared defense systems over in Bakhmut, I find it hard to see how it could have been done better.
It was almost like when the USA hunted Taliban, this game of prey hiding in pits, identified by drones, and then you choose which button with death to press.
At Robotyne, several units with 1000-series designations have now appeared – we know what that is, composite units of survivors from wiped-out units. Combat value likely very low.
At the Dnipro front, there are more such trauma units than there are (regular) regiments and brigades.
At Staromlynivka, there are no such units yet but known brigades, though many of them have taken quite a beating earlier.
These 1000-series units often seem to be battalion-sized and infantry with reinforcement weapons.
At Robotyne, they face UA elite units that have short numbers to all indirect capabilities and access to direct support and good access to drone weapons.
Prigozhin – wasn’t he a very popular leader with Wagner and the army?
After the coup, he appeared in Belarus, we know he flew repeatedly to St. Petersburg and then appeared during the African summit in St. Petersburg shaking hands with the world’s dictators.
A few days ago, he was in Africa according to pictures.
An earlier rumor we discussed was that the Russian state tried to take over Wagner.
A new rumor was that Prigozhin fled Africa because the Russian state was working against him down there, maybe they planned to use some country to imprison him?
That the plane was shot down and that Prigozhin died is indisputable, I think it’s a classic Russian ending?
Yesterday there was also a rumor of signal jamming around Wagner bases and at the crash site, and now we read that Wagner in Belarus has been flown to Russia – coordinated.
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1694432005453218246?s=46&t=3S1xKrZR9ZJPcRqLOPg_OQ
https://twitter.com/azovsouth/status/1694435225122537506?s=46&t=SzsCt0FHBoKycQS7asHTow
This feels spontaneously well-organized?
So far everything is good, a “merchant of death” is gone and the Don Corleones in Russia do what they have always done – kill each other.
But now the situation is a bit different with the war in Ukraine and the bubble list is boiling.
For those who think the situation in Russia is like a normal school day, they are wrong, the country is under great pressure and the pressure cooker has gone up a few degrees.
Besides Prigozhin’s suicide, a large number of commanders around Suvorikin have recently been arrested.
Both Suvorikin and Prigozhin were popular, and in Wagner, Prigozhin was a god.
Anything can surely happen here, and one thing no state in the world can control is if the army has had enough.
It will be interesting to see where Wagner is located and if the MoD has a plan to either wipe them out or buy them over, but it’s hard to believe they can get a better deal than they had under Prigozhin’s leadership.
It will also be interesting to see how the army on the ground in Ukraine reacts to this.
Right now Putin has eliminated virtually all pro-war opposition in the country, and at least I wonder if it’s because he intends to continue the war or not, one can only guess as best one can…
We see no sign of mobilization, and if mobilization does not happen soon, the war is irreversibly lost for Russia.
Then presumably Prigozhin and Girkin must have had a faction behind them that we have not yet seen that has stopped drinking tea?
Now the military bloggers are starting to call for regime change
https://twitter.com/kremlintrolls/status/1694427332084220411?s=46&t=SzsCt0FHBoKycQS7asHTow
And the remaining Wagner chiefs have met for consultations.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1694439523608936852?s=46&t=SzsCt0FHBoKycQS7asHTow
Things like this are always enormously positive because the fastest way to end the war is if Russia turns inward.
Wagner had, after all, a reputation among the hawks as the spearhead, and if you take a step back, Putin is currently wiping out the entire Russian army. The VDV has probably already protested considering all the senior officers among them who have been dismissed.
This while Ukraine is on its way to winning the war.
Putin’s position must be seriously shaky right now.
Hopefully – to be continued.