15:46 – MatsExtrude
Take care!
(Let me know if we need to put together a rescue team and bring you home, write something about how much you love Bolognese chips so we know it’s time).
16:48 – Johan No.1
You saved Dengamles Grilled Tomato brilliantly, I will come up with a code word for when it becomes a crisis.
12:12 – Johan No.1
Apologies for the absence, some mafia in this brilliant pioneering country in Africa has managed to get hold of the contractor and through the Supreme Court stopped their TSHD with an “arrest order.” If they don’t pay 3 million USD bail, there will be no sailing, and there is police on board now; the money must be deposited into a bank account. It probably costs about 1.5 million SEK per day when it stands idle. The client doesn’t care, and this can go any which way – none of the options are good. A bank account down here is as safe as putting the money in a pile on the street, and if they pay, they set a precedent so every fraud contractor in the country will try to sue them as soon as they find a lawyer. The one behind this fraud now has a big gold star on his CV and probably won’t be unemployed. The reason for the lawsuit was that they negatively affect the environment.
Then a lower-level talent at the client cooked up a story that his boss has teamed up with us and the contractor to steal money from the customer by misreporting quantities. His goal is to get the boss’s position, but my employer automatically becomes collateral damage in the whole mess.
On top of that, I was out with the contractor for surveying land reclamation, and some enterprising guys had set up a shooting range aimed straight at us. Suddenly, bullets were whizzing past us, and we scrambled away as fast as we could.
Then the gasoline price quadrupled, the currency devalued, government employees haven’t been paid for 10 months, food inflation exploded, and school fees skyrocketed – there are constant new protests, but they haven’t really gotten going. My guess is that it will get chaotic ahead because the citizens are quite angry.
One is starting to feel that anything can happen anytime here, and it took a little time in recent weeks 😀
I see two previous guesses from the thread confirmed now – the rear lines are not as densely mined, and they are fortifying their rear lines with the units that have been worn out earlier.
It stands to reason that if Russia does not mobilize, they have lost the war, and how can Putin mobilize with widespread war discontent?
How can the FSB (who reads the thread according to PerraG55) be sure that those who allow themselves to be mobilized are not doing so with the intent to become armed and commit revolution?
If the Russian internal repression regime couldn’t stop Wagner or the Belgorod raids, how will they be able to stop half a million soldiers who have just learned to shoot from committing revolution?
Then back to the subject that Ukraine has gone all-in here, our highness Erik14 posted below that their Navy Seals are clearing bunkers at Robotyne. If they have deployed among the most protected resources they have to clear bunkers, then they have gone all in. I also consider that to be fact now.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1695330237398356168?t=PeWLaDlG7AI0MJ4TDeMMKQ&s=19
Regarding the fortifications, we have the fortification map where each point is a satellite image – UA naturally has better intelligence than that.
Then we know they can see the minefields at night when the mines are warmer than the ground, so they KNOW how large the minefields are, and if they say they have gotten through the worst, then that is reasonably so?
If they have now entered the bunker systems, then it is the dense line at Solodka Balka on the fortification maps that applies reasonably?
Just as guessed – they break through at one point and roll up to the West and East with their elite units, and in defense, there are tired units and a significant number of composite units.
Ocheretuvate seems to be another surrounding defense – a trap with a lot of future death in it that UA has a geographic encirclement around where they know there are lots of depots and troops.
Russia has really only created traps for themselves here – the units are in defensive defense, and UA knows where they are and can knock them out with indirect fire before they move forward the shooters.
Now there are also quite a few indications that the Russian artillery tubes have gone silent at the southern front (or at least do not provide the fire support required, but it sounded good).
If you have followed the reporting, the southern front commander has been forced to deprioritize the Staromlynivka area and pull units from there to reinforce around Robotyne.
It is very telling how pressured they are that they have to weaken one area to hold another.
We hear nothing about long convoys through Mariupol, because there are no reserves.
If you remember when Mariupol was encircled early in the war, there were reports of 200 tanks rolling through Berdyansk, and that is the kind of reinforcements needed to make a difference here – but they do not exist.
Then to what PerraG wrote, it has also been guessed in the thread, and it must be considered a great strength for the blog and LW’s around-the-clock work that both Ukraine and Russia read the blog 😀👍
One hopes the FSB laughs heartily at all the mocking of Putin; I personally find those where he shuffles around in the bunker in Altai sucking on a caviar spoon amusing.
You probably have a career as an expert advisor on Russia issues ahead of you, PerraG55?
Regarding the leak from Der Spiegel that it was Ukraine who blew up Nordstream, that is at best a rumor, probably planted information.
I gave some thought to motives because that is always what gets the villain in crime movies.
Does anyone believe that Ukraine would have fired the gas weapon when the best assessment then was that the West would withdraw?
The same Ukraine that obediently does not fire Western weapons across the Russian border and does everything to gain the West’s sympathies and wants to join the EU?
Or could it have been borderless Russia causing natural disasters, engaging in piracy, threatening with nuclear weapons, conducting ethnic cleansing, and castrating and amputating prisoners of war?
We continue to blame Russia, I think.
Now I think we can start talking about drone swarms, 42 in one operation down towards Crimea.
Perpetua shows, as usual, higher RU losses than UA losses.
https://twitter.com/andrewperpetua/status/1695242366297239600?s=46&t=7iDiuyBq6FGr_GaUk9K75w
ISW considers that the units now defending at the southern front are in poor condition and have fought for too long.
https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1695270760326029490?s=46&t=7iDiuyBq6FGr_GaUk9K75w
This one says the same as us in the thread about Russian psyops, both are opinions of course, but I think it is clear.
https://twitter.com/kremlintrolls/status/1695366396727677405?s=46&t=8xR4jcQ4BKgJZgo_rc9CYQ
This one is hard to interpret; surely UA has not yet managed to advance anywhere near Volnovakha?
For now, it must be a typo on this one.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1695375463495971269?s=46&t=8xR4jcQ4BKgJZgo_rc9CYQ
The video below is a warning, a lot of drone-dropped wing grenades. The point I want to make is that they are now using drones to hunt individual people and they have no protection. We have seen these for a long time but it is at that level and the stress factor must be enormous.
https://twitter.com/golub/status/1695667229864387033?s=46&t=aWX0O5qW220KRkP3s7dHfA
To me, it looks like Ukraine is slowly but surely breaking through at the southern front and what was popularly called the “Azov push” was also called the “chess move” because then the war is irreversibly lost for Russia.
We are well on our way to that.
Then of course the Russians can choose to give up northern Luhansk but now that the border is undefended and Erik14 has posted that the freedom fighters are inside Kursk and rampaging again, it is probably not a popular deprioritization.
Ukraine would then get three times the border to clear around and they can also reach all NS supply routes on the Russian side.
Then they can always give up Bakhmut but then UA will go straight for the city of Luhansk and then thunder down into the darkest Donbass from the north.
Feels like the southern front commander is no longer getting any answers to his WhatsApp cries for help 😀
Have we reached a point again where the Russians have to prioritize what they shall keep?
Seems like Taurus is on the way now too?