2023-09-07

10:54 – Johan No.1

There is still movement around Verbove and the Russian defense has fallen back, and there are rumors that UA has gained a foothold in the buildings in Verbove.

The fact is that there are many rumors right now about Novopropokovka and Verbove, but as usual it is probably wise not to get too optimistic (yet).

It is significant that the counterattacks by the 76GAAD failed.

At Staromaiorske, UA is attacking on a broad front all the way to Vuhledar – significant.

We have discussed for a while now that UA is not weak at all in Kreminna despite that being the narrative all Western media push as hard as they can – the looming Russian offensive and the weak Ukrainian picket line.
Now UA has done as they always do and shown everyone wrong, they have retaken terrain up in the Kreminna forests.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1699674399526277172?s=46&t=fk6PQwY7mL5jrYdoZ2bnpw

Look at the unit maps and you will understand how this could happen – RU has weakened too much in that area now.

The War History podcast we were going to listen to – they thought it was clear it was only company level at most and that coordination was poor.
From when we did our military service in the 90s, we were not even close to what we have seen from the 3rd Assault regiment with drones and ops rooms but maybe that is not comparable?

In Bakhmut it is probably true that a company was wiped out per day and there was criticism of that – do you remember when Zelensky announced around the time of Lysychansk that losses were 500 per day, (killed and wounded?).

Bakhmut was for a long time the only active area with high losses and then it was 150 per day.
Then they thought that no others, USA and France, had lost that many.

Considering that Wagner went from 80,000 down to 20,000 and they were not all units in the area, one must still consider that UA losses must be on par with RU?

If RU now lost 1:9 as UA claimed, how could France and USA do so much better, they think?
That is a very far-reaching negative conclusion in my opinion and where they think that everyone with a NATO logo on their arm would have performed 10 times better…

Soft values were missing and sociological factors, poor at rotating out. Sacrificed in a wasteful way.
The question is actually what would have happened if units had been allowed to retreat and they had not demanded that positions be held.
My guess is that much more terrain would have been lost and it would have looked worse.

Right or wrong, it might then have come to a point where RU controlled all terrain east of the Dnipro.

Then that everyone who said they could fight only got one weapon and out to the trenches – what were they supposed to do, they were desperately short of soldiers in the beginning and if people said they could fight they probably had to go out and fill the gaps?

Ukraine could certainly have done much better but they could also have done much worse, they are grinding down the Russian army completely on their own despite the West’s constant doubts.

David D is worried that the USA will stop supporting UA, he is quite knowledgeable. We have discussed this for a long time in the thread actually.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1699643090749870166?s=46&t=fk6PQwY7mL5jrYdoZ2bnpw

A reflection – Ukraine must win their freedom themselves and they are not asking anyone to do it for them. However, it is a bit of an extra bonus that they are also sinking the state sponsor and terrorism Russia at the same time as the whole West will have a better life after it is done.
So therefore the West should not be completely ungrateful and provide ALL the weapons needed to make the war as violent and as short as possible.
I don’t think that is asking for too much in any way, translate this to any situation where someone else does all the work and you just drive him to and from.

Now the USA has released perhaps the most important piece of strategic communication this half-year – frozen oligarch money is sent directly to Ukraine, USD 5 million.
See it as a broadside – they have about 300 billion USD to send if Putin is not taken out soon. This is many of the elite’s entire fortunes presumably?
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1699699603258401210?s=46&t=fk6PQwY7mL5jrYdoZ2bnpw

Then the country supported by Russia is to have joint exercises with the USA, Armenia has turned around.
https://twitter.com/darthputinkgb/status/1699691249714737552?s=46&t=fk6PQwY7mL5jrYdoZ2bnpw

The signs are many now that RU is preparing to leave Tokmak. The convoys with stolen washing machines will be miles long.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1699690399839715513?s=46&t=fk6PQwY7mL5jrYdoZ2bnpw

To liven you up just in time for morning coffee, here is another analysis about RU tanks and now the angle is that they are losing more and more older models compared to newer models.
Even a worried journalist can understand that this means RU has fewer new tanks and more older tanks at active fronts, right – maybe write something about that?
https://twitter.com/ragnarbjartur/status/1699512725187997904?s=46&t=ZbIP4DFyjIoDjb8od7DpEw
Confirmed numbers don’t lie and this, if anything, is an indisputable sign that RU is running on rims right now?

Then if that is not enough to spread the light, we have this – UA is taking very few prisoners right now and has more RU prisoners than those in captivity by RU.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1699416637344989674?s=46&t=ZbIP4DFyjIoDjb8od7DpEw

If the coffee now has a little light blue shimmer and you hear soothing elevator music just quiet enough, then the morning is done 😀

11:08 – MatsExtrude

👍 Thanks, now I am calm and harmonious and can finally get started working seriously! 🙂

11:38 – Johan No.1

😀 good comment above by the way.

11:38 – Johan No.1

Or post.

12:22 – MatsExtrude

Thanks thanks!

It turned out that Daily KOS said roughly the same thing a long time ago! 🤣

13:35 – Johan No.1

This is what I thought – they took X statement that 150 were killed per day in Bakhmut and then added that “if this had been France or the USA this would never have happened”.

That was their opinion and when we know the Russians’ enormous losses, that claim is quite hard to accept.

Then my opinion is that if our mechanized brigade had been placed at any front in Ukraine as it functioned during military service, I don’t think we would have done light years better.

Didn’t manage to listen to the whole thing unfortunately and probably missed some good parts 😀

17:21 – Johan No.1

But hadn’t Ukraine paid for the Starlink product and had subscriptions, last I heard the payment had been resolved?

Yes, I read the article and it is probably Elon Musk’s right to cut off the connection at critical moments like just when Ukraine is about to sink the Black Sea fleet or leak the code to the Russians so they themselves can jam, but then one has presumably committed a crime at least regarding the code?

The connection might, they might manage to blame technical faults or something?

Elon Musk also has his own peace plan, and it includes Ukraine giving away territory to Russia.

17:22 – Johan No.1

Then my point was that if he turned off the connection right at the drone attack, then he was somehow in contact with Russia and actively assisted them in the war.

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