11:29 – Johan No.1
A bit of a reporting lull from the fronts and lots of high-ranking officers visiting here, hence less text.
Trying to stay on topic even though I am interested in the larger escalation currently underway with a couple of notches up the ladder with the risk of further escalation towards a cold war or world war.
The amount of videos showing murdered, raped, tortured and then desecrated corpses is enormous and presumably intended to provoke to the maximum. And then when their retaliation plays out, others take it as a reason to escalate – a downward spiral impossible to stop is my guess, and you hardly need to be an expert to figure that out 😐
What else might Russia have up its sleeve to destabilize the world in a similar way going forward, because yes, Russia did hit the terrorists in the spring and this is a positive development for them –
-strike our electrical infrastructure this winter, they were expected to do it last year and I think they will try again this year.
-start civil wars in the Africa region Mali – Niger – Nigeria – CAR – Chad and a few other countries are good candidates for that.
-I find it hard to see Azerbaijan and Armenia as responsible at all.
-Moldova is probably unreachable for them now, I think.
-increase influence operations in the West to the max, especially after Israel – Hamas to stir up conflicts between the Arab diaspora and others in various Western countries. There are demonstrations everywhere right now celebrating the attack on Israel and it is received rather lukewarmly by the West, especially in countries that have had their citizens murdered.
-escalate in Syria?
-attack Georgia?
-new refugee flows?
-further unrest down in the Balkans?
-Turkey against Greece (maybe not)?
-Turkey increasing presence in Syria?
Again – one should be clear that everything we see playing out now has a long lead time and that there are more steps we have not yet seen in this climbing multi-stage rocket.
Russia has managed to increase production of FAB500 and FAB1500 – a simple and effective weapon that unfortunately works and is very unpleasant.
Now that the artillery is severely decimated and attack helicopters are endangered, they still have air and guided ammunition.
Again, the West should have already listened to Ukraine and given them front-line air defense systems that can shoot down incoming targets even at a distance. They cause horrific damage if they hit directly.
As the blog wrote – GUR confirmed three attacks on Enerhodar and we know of one where we unanimously declared Russian psyops after the videos, or I actually bought into it because crossing the Dnipro was important for my ego but got criticized 😀
The last time hundreds participated, including from the international legion, if you remember the information we got from the Russians it was “foreign special forces” involved.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1711266284309033350?s=46&t=hIS1Il4GQAIBqccomGcTHg
We can only conclude that there is much we do not know. Do you remember Russian information about a failed raid on Snake Island earlier with “foreign special forces” and downed helicopters? Could have been the foreign legion there as well?
As mentioned, we usually do not discuss UA losses or their failed attack attempts, and after the war we can mourn the astronomical losses they have suffered both among civilians and combatants.
The discussion is always – “UA is close to losing so we don’t need to support them” or “now UA is doing so well that we don’t need to support them.”
I think a good middle ground is – “things are going well for Ukraine if the West continues to support them to a win.”
At the fronts, the overall outlook looks positive, RU brigades around Robotyne are severely decimated, there are rumors of a UA offensive across the Dnipro, there are no new brigades at Staromaiorske so RU units in the area are also weak.
RU is also still retreating at Bakhmut and the RU offensive in northern Luhansk completely stalled after astronomical losses.
I am quite sure that Shoigu is trying to solve the task of taking anything at all during October now and in that process the last of the offensive capability will be lost, which is absolutely brilliant.
14:05 – Johan No.1
12:50 is quite interesting because it concerns the entire southern front and we are in the middle of the period where Shoigu is supposed to retake everything.
Retreat is usually preceded by them shooting up all ammunition and we are probably not there yet but it is interesting that they feel they cannot continue attacking. Maybe there is truth to the idea that UA is preparing for a larger offensive operation?
16:52 – MatsExtrude
Thanks!
There is a risk that you might be right in one or more of your scenarios for Russian destabilization, but I really hope we avoid that.
I am counting on Shoigu to make sure the Russian army is significantly reduced. They are at their worst when they try to be offensive…
17:00 – Johan No.1
Yes, let’s hope Shoigu delivers 👍
18:36 – Johan No.1
By the way, it’s fun that it’s often you and Erik14 who comment when posts come late 😀
It adds some extra value to see that you are reading.
06:47 – MatsExtrude
It is a value added to get to read what you write!
11:28 – Johan No.1
A bit of a reporting lull from the fronts and lots of high-ranking officers visiting here, hence less text.
Trying to stay on topic even though I am interested in the larger escalation currently underway with Israel – Hamas, a couple of notches up the ladder with the risk of further escalation towards a cold war or world war.
The amount of videos showing murdered, raped, tortured and then desecrated corpses is enormous and presumably intended to provoke Israel to the maximum. And then when their retaliation plays out, others take it as a reason to escalate – a downward spiral impossible to stop is my guess, and you hardly need to be an Israel expert to figure that out 😐
What else might Russia have up its sleeve to destabilize the world in a similar way going forward, because yes, Russia did hit Hamas in the spring and this is a positive development for them –
-strike our electrical infrastructure this winter, they were expected to do it last year and I think they will try again this year.
-start civil wars in the Africa region Mali – Niger – Nigeria – CAR – Chad and a few other countries are good candidates for that.
-I find it hard to see Azerbaijan and Armenia as responsible at all.
-Moldova is probably unreachable for them now, I think.
-increase influence operations in the West to the max, especially after Israel – Hamas to stir up conflicts between the Arab diaspora and others in various Western countries. There are demonstrations everywhere right now celebrating the attack on Israel and it is received rather lukewarmly by the West, especially in countries that have had their citizens murdered.
-escalate in Syria?
-attack Georgia?
-new refugee flows?
-further unrest down in the Balkans?
-Turkey against Greece (maybe not)?
-Turkey increasing presence in Syria?
Again – one should be clear that everything we see playing out now has a long lead time and that there are more steps we have not yet seen in this climbing multi-stage rocket.
Russia has managed to increase production of FAB500 and FAB1500 – a simple and effective weapon that unfortunately works and is very unpleasant.
Now that the artillery is severely decimated and attack helicopters are endangered, they still have air and guided ammunition.
Again, the West should have already listened to Ukraine and given them front-line air defense systems that can shoot down incoming targets even at a distance. They cause horrific damage if they hit directly.
As the blog wrote – GUR confirmed three attacks on Enerhodar and we know of one where we unanimously declared Russian psyops after the videos, or I actually bought into it because crossing the Dnipro was important for my ego but got criticized 😀
The last time hundreds participated, including from the international legion, if you remember the information we got from the Russians it was “foreign special forces” involved.
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1711266284309033350?s=46&t=hIS1Il4GQAIBqccomGcTHg
We can only conclude that there is much we do not know. Do you remember Russian information about a failed raid on Snake Island earlier with “foreign special forces” and downed helicopters? Could have been the foreign legion there as well?
As we usually do, we do not discuss UA losses or their failed offensive attempts and after the war we can weep over the astronomical losses they have taken both among civilians and combatants.
The discussion is always – “UA is close to losing so we don’t need to support them” or “now UA is doing so well that we don’t need to support them”.
I think a good middle ground is – “things go well for Ukraine if the West continues to support them to a win”.
At the fronts, it looks generally positive, Russian brigades around Robotyne are severely decimated, there are rumors of a UA offensive across the Dnipro, there are no new brigades at Staromaiorske so also weak Russian units in the area.
Russia is also still retreating at Bakhmut and the Russian offensive in northern Luhansk stopped completely after astronomical losses.
I am quite sure Shoigu is trying to solve the task of taking anything during October now and in that process the last offensive capability will be lost, which is absolutely brilliant.