10:22 – Johan No.1
The blocking battalions are often up for discussion and it is confirmed that RU uses them.
Rosgvardia is somewhat loosely described as a home guard but I have the impression that to increase numbers they stole units from other letter agencies and then generally tried to raise their level and the number on paper is 400,000.
FSB would be about 100,000 or something?
Then there are probably GRU units in Ukraine?
The police needed to recruit 400,000 to maintain order in conquered territories so if one guesses, there are hundreds of thousands who can act as blocking units in UA and hunt deserters.
Then logically the punishments for any life-extending attempts are death and often prolonged death; on at least two occasions UA has found dead Russian soldiers hanging by their feet with signs of torture, or at least that is what they filmed.
In light of that, it is not hard to understand that the Russians choose to take the chance to run across the fields and with some luck just die from a bullet.
We have more than once noted that the most miserable job in this war is probably being a Russian soldier, the civilians mobilized in autumn 2022 and sold to Wagner must have thanked their god when they finally died.
I guess like David D that there are hundreds of thousands of “military police” who are supposed to maintain order in Ukraine but I don’t think they intend to die in Ukraine – if it comes to that, it will be a truck back to Russia in fifth gear.
So the bubble list of refusing war or turning weapons inward feels quite far away. Those in the blocking units are probably quite satisfied with their existence and obey orders, so at most there will be some local big fight and then the fledgling flame of revolution will be stomped out under many FSB boots.
The West has now done what they can with their amplifiers – take 300 billion euros in frozen funds, promise UA an air force, LV for the winter, promise eternal support and not a single defeatist statement for quite a while, Macron is probably on a choke chain all day and bored. It would be unfortunate if he got hold of a phone and tweeted something.
This could lead to a palace coup with some luck but for that something was needed to reinforce it and the Azov push is conspicuously absent, an amplifier without music is nothing, right.
Now the Azov push has not been delivered yet here in mid-summer and then the bubble palace coup is probably not about to explode in Putin’s face (unfortunately).
I don’t know the twists around Wagner but that they were forced to end the way they did suggests they could meet it with a threat big enough not to be ignored, it has been suggested that the FSB got to the leadership’s families but that is at best a rumor.
Then quietly there has been a serious Stalin purge now in Russia where they have cracked down hard on possible rebels and wild guess is that they have gone quite broad so many innocents have been caught.
Putin controls Rosgvardia which today is 400,000 on paper and probably has the most weapons in absolute numbers of anyone?
The army is somewhat on the decline so it doesn’t directly challenge Putin’s private army, Wagner was dissolved, FSB, GRU and SVR are all smaller in number and then there was someone else.
Then Shoigu probably has his Patriot mercenary group and Putin had some bodyguard who was high in numbers?
The conclusion can only be that no one with armed power could open Putin’s claw-like grip on power so if something is going to happen it is someone bodyguard bought over or the old favorite poisonous boxer shorts.
Those were my thoughts on the bubble list and maybe not so uplifting right now but when Azov is reached we will probably have reason to revise 😀
Now UA has officially announced that RU is preparing further offensive at the Donetsk front. The units at Avdiivka felt like they had run out of what they had recorded and then began to consume DPR brigades, I will return to that further down, but maybe they have prepared a similar offensive at other places as well?
According to Ukraine, yes, that is what those sneaky Russians have done.
Then we will get a streamlined jump of offensives that will last longer than this one at Avdiivka, which should have started to die down within the timeframe we had in mind – simple math: living soldiers on the fields minus dead soldiers on the fields the next day.
Now the first reports are also coming in that Ukraine has peaked. In my opinion, it is far too early to sound that gong, far too early, and I don’t believe it is true either, but yes, it is something we should keep an eye on, though I give zero credence to these rumors.
IF we were to get there, then the West would be sitting with the whole mess in their lap and regretting that they played a Chamberlain.
It is my conviction that UA will try the Azov thrust and that it is not over in Bakhmut; that is a reasonable assumption if we look at how 2022 looked.
That UA did not get advanced aircraft, that the slippery Germans still have to consider Taurus, that ATACMS have not arrived, that…
RU had around 400 aircraft at the northern front inside bases in Russia and some as well as ahkp at the southern front. They have lots of Iskander platforms lined up at the northern front on their side of the border – that UA has not received the missiles and permission to strike all this already is an absolute scandal.
The same goes for those 12 military bases on the Russian side of the border that train the reserves until they glow – absolutely incredible 🤬
But nothing to be depressed about – someone is reading the thread and taking notes, so yesterday there were attacks on air bases in Luhansk and Berdyansk where, among other things, Ahkp was knocked out on the ground, and RU believes that ATACMS have been used, RU source and a rumor at best.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1714164680103432382?s=46&t=TBeUCrtBNm7HbUfoTlHVgQ
Then I take the opportunity to kill the rumor that UA is weak by presenting the home guard in ballistic vests; if they have armored vehicles transferred to the home guard, then they are not lacking, right.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1713989464509260163?s=46&t=1dS0pJaeC6aQ19l2UsZ3Sw
Below is interesting because these are the RU brigades fighting at Avdiivka, 114th, 15th, and 21st motorized with the 30th in reserve as well as SOF from 1st AC (DPR units).
This is interesting because they are all DPR units; what happened to the units brought down from northern Luhansk that we wrote about at the start of the offensive?
Either they have already used them up and are now continuing with DPR, or they have planned another offensive with them and DPR has been here all along – the sources are a bit unclear here but I guess they have been used up because I think the losses have been too great for too long.
What we can be sure of, however, is that RU is now weakening in the Donetsk area because they are attacking with units that have been in that area all along.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1713908166813966791?s=20
Last on this after the blogger and thread discussion, but I was of the same opinion – if the Chief of Defense did not want to send materiel and the government did it anyway, they have actively supported Ukraine because it would have been quite easy to get away with hiding behind the military having nothing to send – gold star.
From the horse’s mouth – Russian minister states that almost all drones come from China (if anyone still does not believe that everything is connected) 😀
https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1713920354953900479?s=46&t=Pas4eYFsPXGk9blKRBQjcQ
It is my opinion that China also exploits deliveries from NK to send its own materiel, absolutely ammunition, RPGs etc., maybe also artillery.
Some doubts came up the other day about that but I write “absolutely ammunition” because we have seen many videos of Chinese ammunition with the Russians in Ukraine now.
No Western leader who stands on the right side communicates directly with Putin today, so I was quite surprised to hear that Net..ahu called Putin and at the same time said it was not the right time for Zelensky to visit, while Blinken visited I..el.
All this together did not send the signal that I..el has wholeheartedly joined the West and sees Russia for what they are, and of course, they are free to do that if they want, but one wonders how much is needed for them to get it right here. They have committed a cardinal mistake that shook them badly, and continuing to trust the perpetrator is quite strange, but they probably have their reasons.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1713955588118368643?s=46&t=Pas4eYFsPXGk9blKRBQjcQ
This one was up yesterday but the drone weapon, that is one of the “branches” that operate the commercial drones, knocked out over 500 targets in a week and many high-value targets. It was up yesterday both in the thread and on the blog, so mostly for my own archive that I can enjoy – it is going downhill fast.
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1713870082042949766?s=46&t=Pas4eYFsPXGk9blKRBQjcQ
We end with a positive rather big crack in BRIICS which is India’s statement that Russia is yesterday and seriously on the decline. This clearly shows that there is disagreement and that a country like India goes out with this from high representatives is very positive, positively positive even.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1713818162947391942?s=46&t=Pas4eYFsPXGk9blKRBQjcQ
The day started well with a podium finish and burning wrecks at airfields in Russia 😀
10:22 – Johan No.1
What the heck, this should have been its own post – sorry everyone, posting below.
10:28 – Johan No.1
Then I was apparently first with the news about the helicopter explosions, a real Christmas Eve today 😎
11:00 – MatsExtrude
Thanks and Merry Christmas!
Sad that not a single dark horse seems to come true.
At the beginning, one thought that the Russian people might get tired and speak out, but half seem brainwashed enough to think that war is a good solution, and in the other half, people seem to feel no responsibility at all (I have done nothing, I am aaapooolitiiiical) or they are against it but too cowardly to do anything. Unfortunately, Putin has actually succeeded well there..
Later, when seeing several soldiers through dissatisfaction, one hoped that the army might realize that it is not so fun to be slowly wiped out, but nothing happens there either, and you are probably right that it may be due to barrier units and MPs etc.
Siloviki and oligarchs also seem to have no problems with poor economy, sanctions, and reduced opportunities to live a luxury life in any country.
The only option is simply to defeat them so hard that they have no other choice but to give up.
It is going a bit slowly but
By the way, I felt a bit childish when I couldn’t help laughing when I saw this comment a bit further down in your last link: https://twitter.com/bono_mette/status/1713822358585127254
12:14 – Johan No.1
There is a Russian rumor saying that the marine infantry was pulled away from Staromlynivka and back to the right bank of the Dnieper.
There is also a Russian rumor saying that there will be a broad offensive across the Dnieper. The river has already been crossed, but if so, it would be mechanized units driving over with the aim of blocking Crimea.
The smart one can clearly see exactly where they need to go.
I have wondered if there is truth to it because it has been very quiet around Staromlynivka.
12:18 – Johan No.1
That gave a good laugh 🤣🤣
The minimum needed is the Azov strike, after that there is probably a chance it will get chaotic in Russia, but if they manage to absorb that too, then it will be a violent liberation of all occupied areas.
12:29 – MatsExtrude
Let’s hope that’s enough.. It’s crazy how much punishment they are willing to take, the risk is probably that they will push all the way to the end without regard for their own losses.
10:21 – Johan No.1
The blocking battalions are often up for discussion and it is confirmed that RU uses them.
Rosgvardia is somewhat loosely described as a home guard but I have gotten the impression that to increase the numbers they stole units from other letter agencies and then generally tried to raise their level and the number on paper is 400,000.
FSB would be about 100,000 or something?
Then there are probably GRU units in Ukraine?
The police needed to recruit 400,000 to maintain order in conquered territories so if you guess there are hundreds of thousands who can act as blocking units in UA and hunt deserters.
Then reasonably the punishments for all life-extending attempts are death and not infrequently prolonged death, on at least two occasions UA has found dead Russian soldiers hanging by their feet with signs of torture, or at least that is what they filmed.
In light of that, it is not hard to understand that the Russians choose to take the chance to run across the fields and with a bit of luck just die from a bullet.
We have more than once noted that the most unpleasant job in this war is probably to be a Russian soldier, the civilians who were mobilized in autumn 2022 and sold to Wagner must have thanked their god when they finally died.
I guess like David D that there are hundreds of thousands of “military police” who are supposed to maintain order in Ukraine but I don’t think they intend to die in Ukraine – if it comes to that it will be a truck back to Russia in fifth gear.
So the bubble list of refusing war or turning weapons inward feels quite far away. Those in the blocking units are probably quite satisfied with their situation and obey orders so at most there will be some local big fight and then the beginning flame of revolution is stamped out under many FSB boots.
The West has now done what they can with their amplifiers – take 300 billion euros in frozen funds, promise UA an air force, LV for the winter, promise eternal support and not a single defeatist statement for quite a while, Macron is probably on a choke leash all day and bored. It would be unfortunate if he got hold of a phone and tweeted something.
This could lead to a palace coup with a bit of luck but for that something was needed to reinforce it and the Azov strike is conspicuously absent, an amplifier without music is nothing, right?
Now the Azov strike has not been delivered yet here in mid-summer and then the bubble of a palace coup is probably not about to explode in Putin’s face either (unfortunately).
I can’t comment on the twists around Wagner but that they were forced to end the way they did suggests that they could meet it with a threat big enough not to be ignored, it has been suggested that FSB got to the leadership’s families but that is a rumor at best.
Then quietly there has been a serious Stalin purge going on now in Russia where they have cracked down hard on possible rebels and wild guess is that they went quite broadly so many innocents have been caught up.
Putin probably controls Rosgvardia which today is 400,000 on paper and probably has the most weapons in absolute numbers of anyone?
The army is somewhat in decline so it probably does not directly challenge Putin’s private army, Wagner was dissolved, FSB, GRU and SVR are all lower in numbers and then there was someone else.
Then Shoigu probably has his Patriot mercenary group and Putin had some bodyguard who was high in numbers?
The conclusion can only be that no one with armed power could open Putin’s claw-like grip on power so if anything is going to happen it is some bodyguard who has been bought over or the old favorite poisonous boxer shorts.
Those were my thoughts on the bubble list and maybe not so uplifting right now but when Azov is reached we will probably have reason to revise 😀
Now UA has officially announced that RU is preparing a further offensive on the Donetsk front. The units at Avdiivka felt like they had run out of what they had taped down and then started to use DPR brigades, I will return to that further down, but maybe they have prepared a similar offensive at other place(s) as well?
According to Ukraine yes, the cunning Russians have done that.
Then we get a streamlined jump of offensives that will last longer than this one at Avdiivka which should be dying out within the timeframe we thought – simple math living soldiers over the fields minus dead soldiers on the fields the next day.
Now the first reports are also coming in that Ukraine has peaked. It is far too early to strike that gong in my opinion, far too early and I don’t think it is true either but yes, it is something we should keep an eye on but zero credit to these rumors from me at least.
IF we were to get there then the West would be sitting with the whole mess in their lap and regret that they played a Chamberlain.
It is my conviction that UA will try the Azov strike and that it is not over in Bakhmut, that is a reasonable assumption if we look at how 2022 looked.
That UA did not get advanced aircraft, that the slippery Germans still have to consider Taurus, that ATACMS have not arrived, that…
RU had around 400 aircraft at the northern front inside bases in Russia and some and ahkp at the southern front. They have lots of ice platforms lined up at the northern front on their side of the border – that UA has not gotten the missiles and permission to strike all this already is an absolute scandal.
The same goes for those 12 military bases on the Russian side of the border that train the reserves so it glows – absolutely incredible 🤬
But nothing to be depressed about – someone reads the thread and takes notes so yesterday there were attacks on air bases in Luhansk and Berdyansk where among other things Ahkp was knocked out on the ground and RU believes that ATACMS was used, RU source and a rumor at best.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1714164680103432382?s=46&t=TBeUCrtBNm7HbUfoTlHVgQ
Then I take the opportunity to kill the rumor that UA is weak by presenting the home guard in ballistic protection, if they have heavy vehicles left for the home guard then they are not lacking, right.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1713989464509260163?s=46&t=1dS0pJaeC6aQ19l2UsZ3Sw
Below is interesting because these are RU brigades fighting at Avdiivka, 114th, 15th and 21st motorized with 30th in reserve plus SOF from 1st AC (DPR units).
This is interesting because they are all DPR units, what happened to the units that were brought down from northern Luhansk that we wrote about at the start of the offensive?
Either they have already used them up and now they are running with DPR, or they have planned for another offensive with them and it has been DPR here all the time – the sources are a bit unclear here but I guess they have been used up because I think the losses have been too great for too long.
What we can be sure of, however, is that RU is now weakening in the Donetsk area because they are attacking with units that have been in that area all along.
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1713908166813966791?s=20
Last on this after the blogger and thread discussion but I was of the same opinion – if the Chief of Defence did not want to send materiel and the government did it anyway, they have actively supported Ukraine because it would have been quite easy to get away with hiding behind the military having nothing to send – gold star.
From the horse’s mouth – Russian minister states that almost all drones come from China (if anyone still doesn’t believe that everything is connected) 😀
https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1713920354953900479?s=46&t=Pas4eYFsPXGk9blKRBQjcQ
It is my opinion that China also exploits deliveries from NK to send their own materiel, absolutely ammunition, RPGs, etc., maybe also artillery.
Some doubts came up the other day about that but I write “absolutely ammunition” because we have seen many videos of Chinese ammunition with the Russians in Ukraine now.
No Western leader on the right side communicates directly with Putin today, so I was quite surprised to hear that Net..ahu called Putin and at the same time said it was not the right time for Zelensky to visit, while Blinken visited I..el.
All this together did not send the signal that I..el has wholeheartedly joined the West and sees Russia for what they are, and of course they are free to do so if they want, but one wonders how much is needed for them to get it right here. They have committed a cardinal mistake that shook them badly and continuing to trust the perpetrator is quite strange but they probably have their reasons.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1713955588118368643?s=46&t=Pas4eYFsPXGk9blKRBQjcQ
This one was up yesterday but the drone weapon, that is one of the “branches” operating the commercial drones, took out over 500 targets in a week and many high-value targets. It was up yesterday both in the thread and on the blog, so mostly for my own archive that I can enjoy – things are going downhill fast.
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1713870082042949766?s=46&t=Pas4eYFsPXGk9blKRBQjcQ
We end with a positive rather big crack in BRIICS which is India’s statement that Russia is yesterday and seriously on the decline. This clearly shows that there is disagreement and that a country like India goes out with this from high representatives is very positive, positively positive even.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1713818162947391942?s=46&t=Pas4eYFsPXGk9blKRBQjcQ
The day started well with a podium place and burning wrecks at an airfield in Russia 😀