10:46 – Johan No.1
Now one shouldn’t completely lose it on a Monday so see below as an interesting discussion and completely free fantasies please but in today’s dynamic environment CSGs are probably sensitive to missiles and other indirect capabilities fired from land including naval drones.
USA has about nine CSG groups?
I don’t know how they differ in capability but two are now on their way to the Persian Gulf where Iran has been filmed moving missiles and where China is now sending six surface vessels.
Someone in the thread expressed some concern about this about a week ago and thought aloud what would happen if you trick the West into following doctrine to send CSGs into the Persian Gulf to raise the threshold and that it’s a trap, was that Ofredrik?
The West assumes that Iran’s opening move is not full-scale war, right, the famous “scud rain”?
The West also assumed, until February 21, 2022, that Russia would not start a war in Europe and we have the USA and Ukraine to thank that it has gone as well as it has.
The die may already be cast, the West is worried that certain rhetoric or movements could provoke when the opponent has already sharpened the fillet knife and is starting to come at them with it behind their back?
Do you remember the destroyer in the Mediterranean that during a flyover by a Russian fighter saw its systems shut down or blocked. From memory because I can’t find it now but it was probably a test of new Russian capability?
So – what would happen if RU shuts down two CSG groups in the Persian Gulf while Iran releases a cloud of anti-ship missiles?
Besides escalation in MENA, it would probably instantly reduce the USA’s ability to maintain presence in the South China Sea I guess and enable escalation against Taiwan?
It would also knock out the protection the West offers I..el and in a vacuum the LV capability would be greatly reduced while I..el has shot away much of its Iron Dome against H..as rockets.
In a first step the West would need to pool new resources in the MENA region, everything else is secondary.
The West can’t declare war on Russia or China if the entire attack comes from Iran and the usual psyops have been prepared.
That Iran just met Lavrov is not geopolitically criminal.
Bonus – Iran has now completely cut off oil shipments through the Persian Gulf, they are now zero and the gas weapon works even in winter 2024.
Since Russia already controls large protests in the West, it is easy to turn the anger towards high energy prices and electricity shortages.
You don’t need to sink an aircraft carrier, just put it out of combat condition; it’s enough if a missile hits nearby and crashes into the bridge.
I seem to recall that a sunk bunker ship in the Persian Gulf in the right place permanently blocks the entire shipping lane, but maybe that’s wrong?
A bit more on topic – I maintain that I believe the “axis of evil” is several steps ahead here, and if you have followed the discussions about BRIICS, the multipolar world, and statements from Russia as well as China, they absolutely want to break up the West’s hegemony. They simply want more power to be able to bully weaker neighbors.
It is worrying that all these new countries wanted to join BRIICS in 2024, Egypt and UAE for example.
Then BRIICS themselves have stated that 40 more countries are in line to join; I have not seen any evidence for that.
A polar club for dictators, and at least India is slowly starting to look around for an exit.
To be precise, we have reached the beginning of step two in Simon Pearson’s total war 2006 😀
I consider China’s sending of surface ships to the Persian Gulf to be very explosive, and it has flown somewhat under the radar so far.
The West is very concerned about the escalation steps here and not crossing any lines, which automatically makes us reactive; we respond proportionally, right?
We also assume that “the other side” will follow the same escalation ladder, but if they don’t, the West ends up as a good second just like with the Ukraine war.
The escalation in MENA is not small; the entire region is preparing for armed conflict, and the US has sent significant naval forces to the area. When Gotland was threatened, it was probably just a destroyer that came to the rescue 😀
One should not make the mistake of thinking that Russia and China are total powder kegs either, as they can also spell Pearl Harbour and understand that once the line is crossed, the clock is ticking.
The conclusion can only be that IF there are plans to escalate in the Persian Gulf, then there are a couple of steps beyond that, and one of them is in China’s neighborhood since an escalation in MENA itself does not achieve any of their goals (dreams!).
Now, everyone has probably gone to school and read what happened to Napoleon, Germany, and the Soviet Union?
The West is slow at the start for the simple reason that the West is democracies, but unlike Putin’s red lines that one can jump on, the West has red lines that, when crossed, lead to consequences.
Being able to stamp this out already in Ukraine would have been desirable, but the end result will be the same; it just takes longer.
12:24 – Johan No.1
What if I..el does not carry out his invasion of G..a, then there is absolutely reason for some to look in the mirror.
But we are not there yet.
I have thought about starting to fish among the Chinese I know to see how the tone is there going forward, but for now, I do not want to risk burning future income if they are completely radicalized.
I also read today that H..as previously fought the group in G…a called F…ah and killed their leaders, so H..as has practically taken over the area by force after the elections?
12:41 – MatsExtrude
👍 Thanks! Hopefully, it is finally starting to loosen up!
12:47 – Johan No.1
The British tabloid newspapers have jumped on this about there being a body double in China, which I actually did not believe.
According to them, China knew about it, but the group around Putin needed time to secure the power transition.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putin-sent-body-double-31222472
Then a very important question arises for me – if Putin is dying, why are they attacking like madmen in Avdiivka?
12:48 – Johan No.1
Here is the Japanese AI evidence that Putin has body doubles. Any superstar in the thread who posted it first earlier?
13:12 – Johan No.1
Now you spent half the post tearing down the forum’s echo chamber, but haven’t we often discussed in the thread the importance of the spring offensive and that they must strike at the low point (which is until New Year) and that a complete absence of everything could jeopardize support from the turncoats in the West 😀
The other thing we were supposed to watch was whether Ukraine ran out of gas now during the spring offensive and whether that is significant?
I have probably written this above in about ten of my posts, but thanks anyway for the mention that heads of government lack someone like me.
– shout out to heads of government – you can have someone like me, namely me, for a fat salary and my own office.
I personally think you drew too big conclusions from that statement. When we hear a leader in the West who is not Orban or Erdogan hint that it is time for a negotiated solution – then it is serious.
I expect Macron to take the lead.
13:22 – Johan No.1
Then that it has been at a standstill is somewhat a matter of perspective – UA invaded Belgorod and discovered that the entire northern front was undefended, but according to Zelensky himself, the West did not allow them to invade Russia.
Yes, there is no movement because Ukraine is not allowed to attack where Russia does not defend, and they are not allowed to shoot into Russian territory where all the major targets are just on the Russian side of the border.
If the West lifted all restrictions and gave all the equipment that is on its way to being replaced within what, 5-10 years, it would probably go quite fast. Portugal and Spain probably don’t need tanks?
But sure, we can end up in a draw if the West continues to work against it, and then the West has not taken in any information of what is important and will have to sit with the whole mess right in their lap – I usually write that too 😀
13:40 – Johan No.1
13:13 one really becomes tearful over the West not being able to deliver more LV to Ukraine, 36 FAB500s is disturbing…
The two CSGs now heading to the Persian Gulf to protect I..el, if UA had only gotten a small part of that capacity, they would have written thank you speeches about aircraft carriers.
15:21 – Johan No.1
That was good, it’s probably the first time I’ve read the word “Echo chamber” as something that doesn’t have a negative connotation.
Ukraine has probably been in panic since February 2022 more or less, and we have on several occasions seen that Zelensky cannot keep calm – the meeting with Bulgaria’s head of state he got really angry, and after the disastrous NATO meeting, Ukraine tried to spin it into something positive, but it didn’t work.
15:27 – Johan No.1
Even though it sounds insane, I have understood that this is the case: Medvedev, Lavrov, Pesky, and all the others have to outdo each other in hating the West, otherwise suspicion might arise that they are conspiring against Putin – there was quite a lot about this about half a year ago. With Girkin’s arrest and Prigozhin’s death, all debaters and those who are visible probably take the safe over the uncertain, one can guess?
The same probably applies to the oligarchs that they now have to put all their resources at the disposal of the war.
The slightest suspicion that one abandons the sinking ship probably leads to premature death?
15:45 – Johan No.1
Yes, the West must continue sending equipment.
Right after the war started when everyone tried to learn what a war was, there was a legend who wrote “logistics is everything, the most weapons wins” or something, and then developed it very nicely – I don’t remember who.
Then there was another legend who wrote “Russia has only one solution to everything, if the level of violence doesn’t work, increase the violence to the next level, more of the same” – I don’t remember who that was either, but my god how right.
Russia has always gone all in until it crashes, and it’s just a matter of the West supporting Ukraine until it crashes. And it will crash.
15:56 – Johan No.1
The NK ammunition does not explode 😀👍
https://twitter.com/lavrovskyi/status/1716198921632960768?s=46&t=KOe8ZUBbcgLUW9l6BW9iTw
20:34 – Johan No.1
Today’s second post got stuck in the freezer all day, and PerraG55’s cliffhanger remained a cliffhanger because it also went into the freezer, and maybe there is other readable stuff there too?
So tomorrow morning it might be worth going through the thread for some new readable stuff possibly 😀
Death to the caviar-eating slime gnome ✊
09:01 – MatsExtrude
To say the least, a dystopian scenario you are painting. Unfortunately, not entirely unlikely either, so we can only hope that those who can do something about it are considering these possibilities and that they realize the best way out of it is to ensure that Russia is defeated in Ukraine.
10:43 – Johan No.1
UA should be able to lure RU into attacking violently in Kherson to try to break through the bridgeheads over the Dnieper.
If they have brought forward enough indirect capabilities, it will become a new Vuhledar or Avdiivka – maybe we should call this upcoming chaos the red river, the name is still under consideration.
In a full-scale war, RU’s countermeasure to everything that seems dull has always been to storm across the fields with all available units.
It is possible then that we will see a period of very strong RU counterattacks over by the Dnieper, but it is second-rate units stationed there with a few competent units (condition unclear) and Ukraine has only elite units in the area, so it should be a rout with heavy casualties.
Ukraine has really taken working with indirect capabilities to new heights; it is rare for the Russians to even come within shooting range for close combat nowadays.
This is no longer autumn 2022 when UA pooled what they had and experimented – we are a year ahead in time and UA has battle-hardened elite units and on the other side are inexperienced, poorly trained mobilized troops struggling not to forget where they put their rifles (I once managed to put my weapon in the camouflage net on the hood of a terrain vehicle that drove off at night, good lord what a scolding I got but the weapon was found).
There will likely also be more crossings of the Dnieper; the more RU thins out to pool something against the earlier crossings, the thinner the picket line becomes further north.
Those of us who have followed since Davyidiv Brid understand that the staff officer who came up with that brilliant move has also been put in charge of the plan to cross the Dnieper – he is still popular.
Ukraine now has two choices: to combine a breakthrough at the Dnieper with a breakthrough at Robotyne, widen and then close the land bridge to Crimea.
RU units east of Robotyne will then form some kind of horseshoe defense and can then retreat eastward when the pressure becomes too strong. It will never be orderly but it won’t be total chaos.
That would guarantee a quick fall of Crimea as there is no defense of Crimea and the units retreating are largely from the Dnieper front and in poor condition.
The other option is that they reach Azov over in the Vuhledar area (east or west) and thereby cut off a much larger number that must retreat down to Crimea.
Then a large number of units are trapped down in Crimea who can do nothing but watch the tungsten rain, but it takes longer to kill them, more ammunition is required.
Here in my parents’ basement room I also understand that Ukraine does not have two choices, one of the possibilities will be considered feasible and that’s what they will do. In the big campaign plan only the different attack vectors were probably presented, I don’t remember?
Anyway, I believe, as we have probably written for a while now, that the pieces are in place and the ball is rolling. Mines are damn boring but now they have been clearing constantly since early summer and the Russian artillery is an endangered species.
Must-read about Russian torture 😐
https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1716168214202191960?s=46&t=SZLXvuhRwBlPLuRJezur-Q
(Interesting that they air-dropped in Oleshky in the first days of the war, I didn’t know that).
But it doesn’t stop there, already in 2014 Russian soldiers tortured and murdered captured UA soldiers.
https://twitter.com/igor_from_kyiv_/status/1716108937999639016?s=46&t=SZLXvuhRwBlPLuRJezur-Q
Russia has started a huge influence operation in Africa, guaranteed that nothing good will come of this – they are good at radicalizing, just look at the USA I think. You don’t have to be highly educated to understand that the Russians will fuel a conflict between countries in Africa and the West.
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1716153599347056910?s=46&t=LVM0ZldveFTAwKBiKksHtw
Something that scares me quite a bit is that many of the people filmed tearing down the wanted posters of I..el kidnapped children around the West have been highly educated with jobs as doctors or dentists with backgrounds in MENA. The conflicts run very deep, that can only be the conclusion of that study when people who should care about their careers burn them on this, many have been fired.
If anyone thought UA is starting to run out of soldiers, no – they are setting up seven new brigades as we speak.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1716294164051046618?s=46&t=SZLXvuhRwBlPLuRJezur-Q
I haven’t heard anything more about Robotyne other than Russian rumors that the Leopards are rolling, waiting times.