10:58 – Johan No.1
For me, yesterday was a day like any other, I wrote my post and was completely satisfied with a podium place, but the day clarified how quickly the defeat doctrine can spread. Guess why the country Ukraine weighs every word on a gold scale and praises the heroes in films with flags and beautiful music.
We who have been here since the start of the war have seen how the world first thought Ukraine would give up, then got angry that they didn’t give up, then knew that Western material would never come, then expected Ukraine to win in a week, then… Meanwhile Amnesty criticized Ukraine for war crimes and the UN cannot see that genocide is ongoing.
I described this once as having an overconfidence in your father and when he comes and is going to confront another parent at school whose son hit you and he gets badly beaten then your whole worldview crashes (not personally experienced by the way). It sometimes feels a bit like that will happen with Ukraine as soon as an opportunity arises, “oh they didn’t make it, then we give up immediately”.
That the West does not provide equipment can hardly be held against Ukraine’s communication; after NS1-2, the diplomatic and political steps were unlocked for both LV protection and a no-fly zone in western Ukraine, and for Poland to take over border protection against Belarus. Apparently, the West had to hold Poland back.
The thread has pushed those issues hard with old favorites like “200 CV90s” or “Gripen Now” for 1.5 years.
Yesterday, it felt like some were blaming the victim, and at least I, who grew up during the 80s and 90s with that whole discussion, learned that it can never be the victim’s fault. A couple of lawyers learned the hard way what it did to their careers to try to argue that the victim wore a short skirt or was otherwise not covered and therefore reasonably must be considered partly at fault.
One should not underestimate the amount of support the blog generates; LW has several times shown that campaigns in the thread have made a big difference.
Yesterday, the donation race at the beginning of the thread was completely absent, for example, good or bad?
For me, it was of course sad when, for once, we made it to the podium and everyone just wanted to cry 😀
I never read the blog or comments before I post because I want to post what I see from the sources we have over time considered responsible and not sit polishing it until it fits into today’s lunch, which yesterday was a special edition.
The information comes from MoD, ISW, Ukraine itself, a bunch of Twitter users, and then in times of Opsec, Russian military bloggers whom one has to evaluate case by case.
Unfortunately, we have lost a bunch of the negative military bloggers because Russia has gagged them, and we often forget that – the critical voices in Russia are silenced, and this is very important. We are currently getting a positive bias from the Russian side.
Over time, we have also built up a battery of information that in some cases we have differing opinions on but in other cases consensus – very little is pulled out of thin air; it is 1.5 years of work with sources and information.
Then, from time to time, one remembers things wrong like with Teplinsky yesterday, but it is impossible for me to sort all the information and have it written down so I can pull it up, and sometimes memory fails.
Right now, there are two versions circulating – one is that RU is reinforcing for a huge hit at Avdiivka, and the other that UA has brought reserves there and has conducted counterattacks at Avdiivka.
The situation is unclear, but we will have the answer in a few weeks. I chose to go with the UA counterattack because it came from David D, whom I have over time considered a credible source, but it can absolutely be wrong.
Yesterday was actually quite a boring day; now I have tried with numbers in the post above to show the actual conditions, and I still do not see that the defeat doctrine is applicable. Besides, that was not what LW wrote – that the war is lost – but it seemed many overinterpreted it and the abyss opened.
Then, in the negative discussion, some accounts you don’t recognize always come in spinning on and that there must be a negotiated solution because this pitch-black darkness we can no longer have; they are constantly in the undergrowth waiting for the right moment. A study in Russian influence operations.
I understand that Ukraine is going on as they do because a negotiated solution leads to even more ethnic cleansing and tortured murdered small children than they are subjected to today. Ukraine has also had mass deportations before, and in eastern Ukraine, Russia has just mass deported everything they can. There_is_no_alternative!
There are probably a bunch who have been there from the start, least of all LW himself 😀, and who have discussed all the different stages of the war where there has been a pros and cons in the thread.
The milestones have probably been –
-Kiev will fall or alternatively UA will lose the war.
-Kherson (where Kharkiv sneaked in as number one) will never fall.
-Western armor will never be sent to Ukraine.
-Ukraine can never go on the offensive.
Now we stand there again, Ukraine cannot win this war because it simply is not possible.
Looking historically at the whole war, Ukraine has –
-liberated 50% of occupied territory.
-decimated RU elite units very hard.
-now fires more artillery shells per month in absolute terms than Russia from 15:1 at the start of the war.
-gotten everything except advanced aircraft.
-made the West move from suggesting they give up land to promising support until the war is won.
-invaded Russia.
-made the Russian navy flee to the eastern part of the Black Sea without having any fleet of their own.
Ukraine has decimated capability after capability and continues to do so, and they will continue until the war is won.
The country Russia is not a natural law; they have lost most of their wars, often crushing defeats, but they have been allowed to build up the myth about themselves and revise history. “Red Storm” is more fun than the Russo-Japanese War of 1905.
I thought we had left this behind us, but now we understand even more clearly why Ukraine is so keen on positive news and why the number of fallen is a state secret.
Of course, they will retake the last 50% as well, but yes, the West ABSOLUTELY needs to stop sleepwalking and start taking this seriously, especially now when Russia and possibly China have managed to escalate this to the next level right under the nose of a sleeping West after 1.5 years. It is professional negligence 🤬
However, I am of the opinion that the West gave the war-winning packages earlier this fall, but more is needed.
The West has a new global situation to relate to, and that escalation is happening very fast now. I am waiting for China’s move so we know where they stand in this conflict that is brewing.
The same Twitter gods who tore Bakhmut to shreds have now declared that the spring offensive is a failure.
My question to them is – why has Ukraine just crossed the Dnieper with the highest level of ambition and with their most protected resources in the Marine Corps if the offensive is over?
Considering the reach they have, it is pretty lame that they don’t think before they write because many take it in and are influenced by what they write.
https://twitter.com/neilphauer/status/1718985842713112701?s=46&t=WQvgFmOxo9QQmtEiqk-zlg
There are two things we should keep an eye on – if the spring offensive dies out completely, which we will see when the daily loss figure approaches zero over a long time, and if RU brings down its strategic reserves of several CAA to the rear defense lines at the southern front. Then we have reached a point where Ukraine has done what they could despite the West’s stubborn unwillingness to help them to a win.
We are not there yet; if we look in the rearview mirror, UA is building up to plug the land bridge to Crimea, and as long as that is ongoing, we probably shouldn’t get exhausted and give up before Ukraine itself does, right?
Then there is the possibility that the loss of Crimea is decisive in the war, I believe that.
If Russia turns out to be able to absorb the loss of Crimea, then the West only needs to lift all restrictions and send all the materiel, and then Ukraine can move towards the northern oblasts and Rostov-on-Don while the missile barrage is heavy over all airfields and military bases on Russian territory, and then they can slip in and retake the darkest Donbass. It’s not more complicated than that.
No other country in the world can strike targets inside Russia without it leading to escalation, but Ukraine can do it!
Chinese ammunition is already in Ukraine, so diplomatically and politically it is already unlocked that Western materiel can strike targets in Russia. The next best thing is if the West ensures that Ukraine gets its own domestic production for the targets in Russia and uses Western ammunition for the occupied areas.
A Taurus made in Ukraine also makes a moon crater out of the Kremlin 😀
12:14 – MatsExtrude
Thanks! 👍
12:25 – MatsExtrude
Thanks, well written! 👍
14:10 – Johan No.1
Thanks for your usually legendary daily obituary 👍
14:16 – Johan No.1
👍
15:17 – Johan No.1
If I were dictator in Sweden, I would have sent almost all our armor to Ukraine.
Why? Because Russia will not be able to land on Swedish soil with armor in the foreseeable future.
500 CV90s and 200 Leo2s or whatever we have?
I would have fortified Gotland and sent the rest to Ukraine, emptied the depots but kept the home guard.
Today, in 2023, any attempt at a Russian landing in the Baltic Sea would just become sunken tonnage in the Baltic Sea.
10:38 – Johan No.1
The Lions ✊
https://twitter.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1718955658987409424?s=46&t=WQvgFmOxo9QQmtEiqk-zlg
The MoD has made exactly the same analysis as the thread about Dnipro, feels reassuring that we are on the same track as those overpaid giants 👍
https://twitter.com/defencehq/status/1719266846346526953?s=46&t=TyPFYYTjPOr120ccCxp51g
Storm Shadow is back and with a bang. The Russian elite air force will have a very boring week and the black project is in danger. I had completely missed that they had received a new batch and was sitting with my angry red emojis when apparently 8 were fired, so no shortage there. After a couple of comments yesterday in the thread, I don’t remember by whom, it might be a reasonable conclusion that they finish new ones as soon as they can and they come in batches. UA probably got the ones that were finished immediately and then worked on the next delivery maybe?
Now we try to put numbers on the defeat doctrine, below are the figures that have often been communicated and we don’t really have others except those with full insight into both UA and RU rolls which I don’t have –
UA Armed Forces were 260,000 at the start of the war and the elite in the army significantly smaller, the ATO units were 50-60,000 if I remember correctly.
According to the USA, UA has – 70,000 killed and up to 190,000 wounded (how many of the wounded return to units is not clear, UA themselves have stated 80% but it is not clear if 190,000 are permanently lost or in the pool that can return, I don’t know, the number of amputations was 50,000 but we have seen soldiers with such injuries return in non-combat units).
Ukraine is a country with 40 million citizens and the armed forces today are 1 million strong of which 500,000 are in the army.
In a full Swedish mobilization in the 80s we were about 800,000 in the entire armed forces and civil defense of 8 million citizens?
Since Ukraine is a sensible country, they don’t do as in Russia and throw in the worst first, they have used their good units very hard.
When Popasna fell, they were so short on units that Territorial had to take over the entire front section and the Russians figured that out and broke through the home guard’s defense.
At Bakhmut, the army, NG and Territorial shared the defense and all took losses.
Otherwise in 2023 RU attacked at Vuhledar during their winter offensive with catastrophic results, for the Russians.
UA themselves stated a 1:9 ratio at Bakhmut until fighting in the town started when losses skyrocketed and at Vuhledar RU rarely reached combat objectives but died in minefields at a distance.
If Wagner took 20,000 dead, plus army units supporting them, and UA has lost 70,000 in the whole war, it is not unreasonable that UA losses around Bakhmut are significantly less than RU?
Ukraine has stated that 70% of losses were RU artillery which is now heavily decimated, we have received information that UA now fires more shells per month than RU and they have magnitudes better accuracy.
When it is said that most (some say “all”) soldiers who were there at the start of the war are either dead or wounded, it was presumably among these 50-60,000?
Then it is a truth with modification because warstache goes on and the leaders in Azov who surrendered at Mariupol are back in units. The YouTuber from Hostomel, Starsky – is he alive?
The Cossacks from Bakhmut?
What does it look like today –
Ukraine has 500,000 in the army and one million total.
According to Ukraine there are 400,000 Russians in Ukraine, unclear if that is army or total but that is the latest confirmed figure.
According to Forbes UA has an advantage or parity in number of tanks and in quality they are significantly stronger, all Eastern bloc tanks that came had decent sights and we have seen very old RU T54-55 and T62 at the fronts.
Ukraine has artillery superiority in absolute number of shells fired but also in counter battery fire and accuracy.
What Ukraine has not gained superiority in is the air force because the West has been slow and unfortunately the Russians finally understood the value of FAB500 and FAB1500.
UA has just taken out the army air force which has been pulled far away from the fronts.
Ukraine thus has superiority in all capabilities except the air force which they try to deny flight time with LV, that is why everyone has promised more LV now in their packages during the autumn among other things.
That is how it looks in hard numbers in October 2023.
Have you noticed that RU has started testing where LV is weak, a beginning of the beginning of this year’s missile rain against the electrical infrastructure.
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1719248123195719770?s=46&t=TyPFYYTjPOr120ccCxp51g
Representatives of the republican guard are in Lebanon, nothing positive can come from that.
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1719218241245962385?s=46&t=TyPFYYTjPOr120ccCxp51g
A good combo simply, BMP-1 with mounted ZSU-23-2 👍
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1719218241245962385?s=46&t=TyPFYYTjPOr120ccCxp51g
Shoigu has now also hinted at negotiations, then we just wait for Orban and Erdogan. Then someone pro-Russian will out themselves in the West when they start pushing negotiations.
https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1719067478829969549?s=46&t=TyPFYYTjPOr120ccCxp51g
This thing about Trump not following article 5 in NATO was apparently taken out of context, and it has already been discussed, but I’m including it for my archive.
https://twitter.com/glasnostgone/status/1718940967653286373?s=46&t=jkHPVgDnxWvllj9hXQxrLQ
If we didn’t think the UN has tilted, now Iran is to get a seat on the UN human rights council 😐
One example among many is that they throw LGBTQ from high buildings and hang opposition members in cranes as a spectacle for the people not to mention their terrible track record on equality issues.
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1719252451075776806?s=46&t=TyPFYYTjPOr120ccCxp51g
That the West has slow-walked arms deliveries is indisputable and has been raised since March 2022 in this thread. There are many voices against it now.
https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/status/1719271308456800690?s=46&t=TyPFYYTjPOr120ccCxp51g
Or this one which clearly shows how little the West has actually given to Ukraine. Highly sensitive Westerners with all their diagnoses get “Ukraine fatigue” when Ukraine doesn’t 😐
https://twitter.com/ehunterchristie/status/1719107316006408555?s=46&t=TyPFYYTjPOr120ccCxp51g
With the usual disclaimer that some numbers are not current but this is what we have received from the sources we have chosen to trust.