11:03 – Johan No.1
So what’s happening, that Ukraine’s Chief of Defense goes out in The Economist is interesting, a coordinated PR campaign at all levels to increase Western support one might almost start to suspect. He explains very pedagogically what is required for a big win.
This offensive was and is resourced, but when Ukraine starts becoming desperate car salesmen again, that reasonably means that future deliveries are drying up?
It’s never nice to see them become desperate.
https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1719805889169801303?s=46&t=vtB9arp_KFQNEcbBQQhSpw
One should be very clear that Russia gets all the materiel they point to from Iran, China, and NK. It’s time for the West to give Ukraine the key to the warehouses now.
How has the spring offensive gone so far? We have discussed what UA has achieved with the war as a whole, but there are a few more points.
– October 2023 was, as is well known, the highest month for tank losses but also the second highest month for losses of barbarians, in a 1.5-year war. The intensity is thus very high right now.
– A possible attack on Teplinsky’s headquarters just days after he took office – feels like Ukraine actually has a handle on things, somewhat like the blow against Gerasimov.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1719757404869444004?s=46&t=lmeY15X741V0hV_PJzVeFA
– Ukraine continuously receives deliveries of heavy vehicles, first 30 Abrams, then 50 more tanks from Denmark, and now it has come out that France sent 40 AMX-10s. Over time, this adds up and in total they probably have over 700 known tank deliveries?
I guess there is a lot we do not know about that has been delivered.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1719749795403771973?s=20
– Ukraine has conducted, and is conducting, counteroffensives in Avdiivka. They are thus not completely overwhelmed by the barbarians’ screaming and saber-rattling hordes storming over the potato fields but manage to fight back. That does not mean they have the initiative at Avdiivka, it means they are conducting a mobile defensive battle.
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1719715898871673097?s=46&t=lmeY15X741V0hV_PJzVeFA
– Russia expected to lose 250 tanks during the large three-day special operation in the borderlands. That is about what they have lost in half a month recently 😀
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1719735836298588602?s=46&t=lmeY15X741V0hV_PJzVeFA
– The Russians’ strategic reserves have started to move, we will see what lands on the southern front 😐
https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1719810468145996050?s=46&t=vtB9arp_KFQNEcbBQQhSpw
– The barbarians have pulled their Ahkp away from conquered territory and lined them up in the open at airports just on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine – West wake up 🤬
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1719625296167723118?s=46&t=lmeY15X741V0hV_PJzVeFA
As is well known, I have bet a new five hundred from Erik14 that UA is conducting offensive operations at Avdiivka.
RU has already worn out 10 brigades in that area, they were weak from the start and the attrition rate was enormous.
The rebel units have also now been decimated and are assigned to defense in this area, and if one guesses, UA has probably struck them on the flanks as mentioned above and below?
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1719384508393275589?s=46&t=q4jreW6yvZqW40m-NjFdQw
The quote below is from MXT who shamelessly stole it from Twitter.
We often get new information and sometimes it checks out and sometimes not, the other day it was 100k at the Dnipro front and now only 64k.
440,000 is fairly in line with the previous figure of 400,000.
2324 tanks is also okay, each front had about 500.
What NEVER appears is when the figure is from, but I note that RU lost 20% of all available tanks in October 2023 – wow!
Then one should be aware that at least 30% have technical faults and are unusable and that there should be over 500 that are T62 and T54-55, if not more.
“Russia is estimated to have in Ukraine 441,700 soldiers
– 2324 tanks of various types
– 5661 armored fighting vehicles / infantry fighting vehicles
– 3148 artillery systems
-982 rocket artillery systems
-46 other rocket weapon systems (e.g., Iskander)”
Okay I..el and NATO doctrine, they have everything, right?
And they are also fighting against an unqualified enemy without tanks or air force. They should thus cut through H..as like a machete through butter?
First, one should be clear that they have soon divided G..a into two parts but after that, they will start clearing the buildings and underground – that has not started yet.
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1719834437184278950?s=46&t=vtB9arp_KFQNEcbBQQhSpw
So how is it going? I have no idea, but in a couple of videos I have seen, it is not light years better than the “terrible” Ukraine that so many love to bash.
Here sits a squad, probably in a nice pile, that H..as drone bombs.
https://twitter.com/john_a_ridge/status/1719786064460558484?s=46&t=lmeY15X741V0hV_PJzVeFA
Here the tanks are inside the red zone in G…a and they stand in a row instead of in a surrounding defense.
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1719577598202626186?s=46&t=lmeY15X741V0hV_PJzVeFA
And here is a video of some fire attacks on I..el heavy vehicles, why they don’t have surrounding defense with infantry is incomprehensible to me. I think the first sequence is where a whole i..isk infantry group was wiped out?
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1719761853960626508?s=20
Some may have caught in passing that I am a volcano-burning defender of the world’s best infantry and usually wake up from hibernation when the criticism makes the rounds. Just from these videos, I don’t think the world’s best army conducts itself much more professionally than what we see from the fronts.
I maintain that all videos of UA clearing operations we see are the higher school and something I absolutely did not master during conscription in the way we see.
Then today came the old classic – “look now it’s stuck, it’s WW1 all over again.” No, it’s not, if Ukraine had thundered in with 10 brigades they had up at the northern front straight north, this war would probably be over today.
If UA had rained Storm Shadow and ATACMS over the 12 army bases and all the air bases just on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine, the Russian air force would be finished and the strategic reserve would be in hospital.
Ukraine fights with one hand tied behind its back and great stinginess in materiel allocation while Russia gets to do whatever it wants, including terrorist acts against NATO countries, and gets all the materiel they point to from China, Iran, and NK where all three are big ammunition hoarders.
If the West dropped its diagnosis and removed all restrictions and caveats and gave a few % of what is standing and gathering dust in the warehouses, this war would be over very soon.
It is an absolute mockery that all attack helicopters have been driven out of Ukraine and lined up in long rows at airfields just on the Russian side of the border – it has been 1.5 years now and it is starting to be time for the West to accept that this is a major war and that global escalation has already begun by the driving party.
The fastest way to end this war is for Ukraine to run over Russia as fast as possible.
We all understand that Ukraine has held back some CV90s for training, right, so send all 500 we have now, minus what we need for Gotland.
And top up with all 122 minus those we need for Gotland.
Follow up with Gripen.
Win the war and make the world a better place as well as fill the order books for the next 20 years so we build our way out of the recession. A bit like how the USA got out of the Great Depression, except that we manufacture weapons for violent death instead.
11:10 – Johan No.1
I interpreted the transports from Kaliningrad and Belarus as the beginning of moving strategic reserves, but if it is air defense, that would be brilliant and there seems to be evidence for that 😀
That reasonably also means that RU has an enormous shortage of it?
11:52 – MatsExtrude
+1 Hope you can earn the title oracle, not only when it comes to Putin’s demise at the gas station but also regarding Russia’s disintegration!
11:55 – Johan No.1
Yes, imagine having the formal title oracle, then business cards made of eggshells will be made but first they have to get hold of him and deep-marinate him in gasoline.
12:00 – Johan No.1
No bonus points for longer passages?
12:09 – MatsExtrude
+++++ Yes, it’s time for the West to drop the guard and step up for real now.
12:23 – MatsExtrude
If the Russians gather their air force at that airport, it’s a chance one shouldn’t miss!
Please USA, deliver at least a handful of cluster ATACMS with 300 km range to Ukraine!
13:36 – Johan No.1
Drop the guard now ✊
16:32 – Johan No.1
A war of attrition is my guess that Russia can handle. They now get all sorts of materiel from NK, Iran, and China, where especially China is still sneaking a bit with it. Ukraine actually has until after New Year because then new CAA will come to Ukraine that can man the rear fortification lines.
They have started drone production and admittedly have a shortage of components but can smuggle and get enough from China.
The mine weapon has proven excellent so creating a southern front at all fronts must be at the top of Gerasimov’s list?
But…
War of attrition my ass, Ukraine had 10 brigades stationed at the northern border and when they were not allowed to attack, they did not send the volunteer units that split FSB customs officers in two, there was nothing there.
All Russian airbases and 12 training bases for the army can be clustered away with ATACMS or missiles.
The West has tied Ukraine’s hands throughout this war and if they loosen the ropes, it’s a completely different playing field, right?
The West has made several big mistakes in the last 1.5 years and the thread has pretty much cried over most of them.
10:48 – Johan No.1
Putin is starting to get a little worried, how do I know that – well, he’s WhatsApping me damn all the time!
Dagestan shook up his silovik buddies who are starting to get in touch because the only thing they fear more than an unorganized palace coup is a popular revolution.
Then it’s like the staircase into the funhouse at Gröna Lund where the slightest misstep makes you hang onto the handrail with both hands and scream your lungs out.
That’s when it’s impossible to navigate the map and the damn randomness kicks in with a high risk of death.
Imagine the nightmare of not making it to the airport before the liberation mob has taken over and you’re stuck in Russian Revolution 2.0 with a big bullseye on your back.
This keeps the large-size mash-dunk oligarch awake at night, those who have the luxury version with a screw cap that Erik14 posted the other day.
Seeing how 3,500 men of military age (and why the hell weren’t they in Ukraine, Putin wonders by the way) took over the airport for several hours gave them stomach aches.
The whole silovik gang has checked their private planes, escape routes to the airport, that passports are valid and that they get their travel cash – gold, dollars and euros. You have to sneak so no one in the gang realizes you’re planning an exit.
The slightest shake on the upper deck and it’s streamlined jumps over to Dubai.
Now Budanov is not a complete idiot so he is distributing LV to the liberation fronts so the day of the big escape will be the day with the most air accidents in Russia’s history.
No one knows when the bubble list will burst but that the country historically has turned inward with this type of external influence we know, three times in less than 100 years moreover.
I have formally logged a request with the liberation fronts that Putin should be taken out like a struggling piñata soaked in gasoline and hanging by the feet from a gas station. They had to Google Piñata but liked the concept as a whole and have promised to do what they can.
That would give me the legal right to use the title oracle for the rest of my life which is attractive and not just steal the name like that guy in Benidorm.
Now that the West might eventually reconsider its restrictions and disclaimers and allow Ukraine to defend itself in a fair way, it’s probably time to speculate a bit about that to liven up the mood 😀
Since 2014, Ukraine has had to struggle with active Russian infiltration and influence operations and has now somewhat cleaned up its own backyard.
They have a high understanding of terrorist attacks and political and other influence.
Do you know who is still in elementary school?
-Russia.
Firstly, Russia has sent a large part of the internal troops to Ukraine, FSB, Rosgvardia and others.
Secondly, they have never really cared to reason about what would happen if they themselves were subjected to what they subject others to – active violent influence aimed at fueling strong conflicts to create a breeding ground for a (popular) revolution.
Budanov has been very clear about Ukraine’s ambition here – to get Russia to turn inward, to decolonize Russia and to have good relations with the oblasts bordering Ukraine so that they are a demilitarized buffer zone.
Ukraine had nothing to do with Dagestan but they have contacts with the opposition in Russia and all six (or however many there are) liberation fronts active in Russia.
Guess if today there is a whole bunch of liberation fronts, opposition and nationalists sitting wide-eyed watching what is unfolding before them – Russia can no longer stop anything.
Dagestan has often been suggested as “ground zero” for the Russian liberation struggle and that they could take over the capital’s international airport for several hours was exciting even if the purpose was not so admirable.
This is what the patchwork Russia looks like, PerraG55 can correct me where I go wrong below.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Russian_Regions-EN.svg
The republics have a large degree of self-determination.
The oblasts are kind of like municipalities?
Then St Petersburg and Moscow have a bit of special status.
Then the yellow and orange on the map are probably autonomous regions but Krai is referred to as larger oblasts, kind of.
Confusing – yes, very much so.
As soon as the central power feels that some area is becoming a bit too independent, they intervene and break it up until they have full loyalty again. Everyone remembers the Chechen war.
Even among the 12 new countries formed when the Soviet Union fell, they interfere and destroy in – Georgia and Armenia – Azerbaijan and there is surely more we don’t know about.
Ukraine has now undergone its baptism by fire, the country held together and they have survived the rocket rain.
For Russia, this hasn’t even started and they don’t understand it themselves yet but are still fighting for a seat at the table near the band on a sinking Titanic.
The day before yesterday oil tanks, an ammunition factory and electrical infrastructure deep inside Russia exploded. With the help of local talents in the liberation fronts and infiltrating saboteurs, Ukraine can cause a lot of damage.
They can shut down Russia if they want, which they have promised to do if Russia lets up on the rocket rain this winter.
Budanov has already told us that they are in contact with all the liberation fronts and they give the Russian volunteers the best training they can manage to prepare them for future acts of liberation.
Ukraine is thus as ravaged as the damn population in Europe was after WW2 and I have the distinct feeling that they will dispense justice themselves both now and in the future.
Since Russia has not declared war, Ukraine can forever strike targets inside Russia, it is also self-defense when in the future they take out rocket factories and the defense industry.
For Ukraine, a collapsing Russia is good, they have had good contact with surrounding oblasts and they will have it in the future for the simple reason that they can spread EU prosperity to them as well.
As a return favor, they will negotiate that the oblasts are demilitarized.
SBU and GUR have developed in the right direction since 2014 and enjoy great respect in Ukraine. When they no longer need to hunt pro-Russians or Russians within the country, they can export their expertise and make life miserable for the country Russia.
Russia has really been poking the wrong hornet’s nest and this will never end until we have a bunch of new countries in the world and oblasts with more independence.
Now you should be clear that Ukraine by doing this is doing the world a favor and also a good deed to decolonize Russia which is very fashionable right now.
The only thing the West needs to do is not interfere – let’s see if they manage that…