2023-11-06 -

11:49 – Johan No.1

Had a relapse in how absolutely crazy one gets about the West not being able to make up its mind sometime and the constant comment “does the West really have more to send”. Yes, the West can win this war in half a year if they send material – Lavrov will be sitting and crying loudly at the UN asking for protection so they might at least keep Moscow. That it should take the death of tens of thousands for the West to dawdle is so incredibly incomprehensible but unfortunately that is the reality everyone has to relate to, including the single remaining parents who have already burned out from worry and the traumatized children 😐

A free suggestion to Western governments.
Go out today and announce that if Russia strikes Ukraine’s power infrastructure from now on, the West will lift its restrictions on Western missiles and they may be fired into Russia against the following group of targets – *list of allowed targets*

Some genius has already brought this up in the thread but wouldn’t this be a reasonable move to start with?
I’m not a politician or diplomat but feel that it is a balanced next step to take.
It also doesn’t seem to have been any difficulty promising this in the MENA conflict and backing it up with CRG.

Consider here that the second Ukraine started sinking Russian surface vessels, Russia abandoned the idea of a naval blockade (piracy) in the Black Sea.
Another tip – this does not need to be a consensus decision AND it does not need to be communicated officially.

As is well known, there is a Russian influence operation right now that the West will force Zelensky to negotiate which Western media are picking up on. All “troll channels” are pushing this as today’s lunch.
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1721269617962684692?s=46&t=1_pcg0sV4sPT-4SuL23WYQ

Zelensky himself denies that they will negotiate and calls Putin by his proper name – terrorist.
https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1721407150574956768?s=46&t=afaTB6VLo4LTw8PXFjtXGw

The demonstrations in the West are also Russian influence, now Soviet flags and somewhat unexpectedly swastikas are starting to appear and various groups disagree on many things (LGBQT for example) but are united in their hatred of the J…s.

The demonstrations are increasingly turning violent and against governments and “the elite” as so often before.
Now we are just waiting for the right wing to be unleashed and then it will get lively. In the US, politicians have already gone out and warned that the Democrats will lose MENA votes if they stand on I..el’s side for example and there are also large demonstrations in SE.
Disagreement on the LGBTQ issue
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1720961267462983826?s=46&t=Er7LUrDtovdKWEJ5r4CY3g

The Soviet flag and the other flag,
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1720971698499891505?s=46&t=Er7LUrDtovdKWEJ5r4CY3g

https://twitter.com/marionawfal/status/1721172019335606377?s=46&t=Er7LUrDtovdKWEJ5r4CY3g

What is not going the Russians’ way at all is that several countries in MENA have the audacity to break with the narrative. The first was H…ah who blinked.
Egypt is also clear that they are not on H..a’s side.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1721124687336374468?s=46&t=Er7LUrDtovdKWEJ5r4CY3g

The fact is that where we stand today, I..el will eliminate H..a completely and no countries will really take their side – a big failure for Russia that countries choose peace instead of war, Putin is tearing his hair out.

Then I probably need interpreter help with this but I think it says that general and compulsory conscription is introduced but that it shall be voluntary to join combat units. If so, that is very far from being short of personnel and needing forced mobilization and below is official communication. Anyone who knows better than me in the parents’ basement?

If this is true, it is very clear that the narrative that Ukraine has run out of soldiers is Russian influence as well because otherwise they would never have switched to contracts?
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1721156200945872967?s=46&t=Er7LUrDtovdKWEJ5r4CY3g

Almost OT but if anyone were to ask what we get for the aid money, the answer is hotels and luxury houses. I think this has been raised far too little in the media, that H…as live like gods and all civilians in G..a are serfs?
Have probably seen five or six videos now where civilians in G..a express their dissatisfaction with H..as but they are silenced.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1721163939315171348?s=46&t=Er7LUrDtovdKWEJ5r4CY3g

If it becomes a cold winter, we will probably have the period of major frost damage this time because now the drones are like a swarm of hornets and see everything. Last winter the units could warm themselves and Ukraine did not have the capacity to scout so broadly. Not anymore so welcome deep-frozen Russian.

Everyone has probably heard the story about the patrol that skied on a stove pipe sticking out of the snow and dropped a blank cartridge into it – can someone confirm that it is more than a good story 😀

When it gets around zero and rain, combat effectiveness drops like a stone and Ukraine will manage far better than the barbarians.

We are heading into a very good period here where Russian combat effectiveness drops and UA’s decreases a little.

Last winter, 30% of the injuries in hospitals in Luhansk were frostbite injuries we were told – these are injuries beyond combat-related losses.
https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1721154883951227081?s=46&t=Er7LUrDtovdKWEJ5r4CY3g

Then Erik14 posted yesterday that the intensity of the Russian counterattacks over the Dnieper is decreasing. This can reasonably only mean that RU is starting to run out of gas and to renew the attacks they need reinforcements – are there any?

I read more and more from our Twitter gods that the bridgeheads are expanding.

Now it is important to keep an eye on strategic reserves and where they come from, and if they come.
I have noted a VDV regiment back in the area and two new marine infantry – these units have been pulled from the southern front and they are not offensive reserves but previously shattered and battered.

The Russians attacked in Vuhledar because they guessed that UA had weakened too much there – miscalculation and they paid with death.

I was sitting and thinking like this, if I who have barely lived in Sweden the last 25 years would be hated because Sweden ethnically cleanses Norway, would that be fair?
When it comes to J..s who are an ethnic group spread all over the world and where most have never lived in I…el, are held responsible for what happens in I…el, isn’t it the same?
In all the demonstrations I only see the word J…s, rarely I…els.
What is whipped up right now has unpleasant similarities with how the tones were in Europe before WW2, it was not only in Germany that there was aversion to this ethnic group but they took it a step further.
I have also not seen a single J…sh demonstration with placards where they write hateful things about P…s after the terror attack on October 7, not a single one. Possibly some counter-demonstration against ongoing pro-P…a demonstrations where they stand peacefully with some flag and get things thrown at them.

I know one of the people in the article, so for once I feel that it is 100% legit. He is not overly negative like some others have been but brings up problems.
My thought is really that everyone is right – it depends on where you stand and what you see around you. This person trains a mechanical brigade.
We in the thread are trying to get some kind of overall perspective and piece it together into a whole.
Then Johan No.1 has probably never hidden that he believes the most negative things can be saved for after the war.
Right now I am sitting and comparing the films with Israeli armor and they are not light years better than the Ukrainian ones and that is the world’s best army.
One thing I did react to – he talks about them lacking training but having combat experience.
A Swedish conscript unit has training but no combat experience.
Ukraine has had combat experience since 2014 – the only thing that was important when applying for jobs after university was work experience and Ukraine has a lot of that.

The Swedish soldier in Ukraine: “Corruption is a big problem” – Kvartal

Then Ukraine states that as many as 700,000 children may have been kidnapped, that number matches what the Russians themselves say. An astounding figure with hundreds of thousands of families consumed by the stress of not knowing where their children are, horrifying 😐
Now that the Russians themselves have admitted the figure maybe the UN can take a stand on the issue of ethnic cleansing but that is probably expecting too much, or Amnesty?
https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1721186752537260333?s=46&t=Er7LUrDtovdKWEJ5r4CY3g

I think it looks good globally and that Russia really only got Hamas on their side through violence and terror.
Also looks bright at the Dnieper with a constantly growing bridgehead that is unbeatable and that Russia has now pulled units from the southern front – weakness.

12:31 – MatsExtrude

It is really time for the West to set a red line.
300km ATACMS might be a sufficient threat as the Kerch Bridge and practically all of Crimea would be at risk. If one is still too cowardly to let Ukraine strike into Russia.