2023-11-09 -

11:51 – Johan No.1

At the Dnepr, UA has a large number of hard vehicles, brigades, and they now have an EV (drone dome) over the area as well as LV protection. The artillery has been heavily decimated, and against UA elite units with night combat equipment, they are mobilized with personal weapons. We will see what RU can send down in terms of reinforcements going forward – whether they exist or not.

The Accent Man is back with a bang 💥
When he sums up, it is very clear that UA has gone from knocking out artillery and rear areas to knocking out army aviation, the navy, and the air force.
That can only mean that they consider the artillery sufficiently monitored and that it can be handled with front-line indirect capabilities.

Another step on the way to the Russian Federation’s crushing defeat. I don’t understand how anyone can claim that Russia is winning when the army aviation has been moved to Rostov on Don, the navy has fled to Novorossiysk, and there it is once again starting to be conflicts before the briefings about who will be forced to fly over Ukraine in the air force.
https://youtu.be/XlBcPDdYbxY?si=28zFwwaYSpKzM26M

This one should probably have come first, but I am all excited that the twin I never had has now come back.
The mother of all strategic communications that the EU stands behind Ukraine, right? Now that the pro-Russian influence operation is rolling that the West is abandoning Ukraine, it apparently wasn’t really so 😀
If you bit on that, you bit on psyops, one can only conclude, and you need to recalibrate a bit again.
https://twitter.com/maria_drutska/status/1722298182762205516?s=46&t=3BYxs2cgthl6uLW1g6H6wQ

It slipped a bit under the radar, but Moldova is also a candidate country and it is a country Russia planned to take over – a very long finger of the EU.
Moreover, Georgia has also been accepted as a candidate country, even more embarrassing for Putin, his Ruski Mir is collapsing like the house of cards it is.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1722215686431531486?s=46&t=3BYxs2cgthl6uLW1g6H6wQ

Then UA has started to take communication seriously, so here they probably get the USA on board 👍
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1721896863388053578?s=46&t=taSMIf15k8IuA0ZtxAEsUg

The second most important piece of information which now finally puts an end to all guesses about UA losses. Zelensky has stated that the ratio is 1:5 which gives 60,000 dead.
I guessed about 50,000 and that means nothing at all, but the USA has estimated UA losses at 60,000 – 70,000?
Wounded also fall within the range the USA thought, 120,000.
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1722334307975352549?s=46&t=7LFjzSWa5LOHMiNp2WvVvQ

Now history is always like this – RU has lost less but UA more, going forward when you take the position that RU lost less you must then also accept that UA lost 1:5 of what you consider a reasonable RU loss, and that they are then almost unharmed in this war?

Then we also know why the UA SOF chief was fired – he outed some secret operations in an interview. So it is not full friction within the leadership as the pro-Russians directly tried to make us believe – and that made one a bit worried.

There are two stories circulating around Zalizny’s secretary’s death. The one I lean towards is that the FSB (or whatever letter-agency is holding the reins) is now trying to force tensions in Ukraine through murder when everything else failed.
I choose not to believe that the secretary got a box of hand grenades on her birthday and played with them with her son – that story is unreasonable for anyone who is a parent of small children and if you are an assistant to the Chief of Defense you are not the type to juggle hand grenades with your six-year-old son.

Further evidence in the matter is that a deep fake is circulating where Zalizhny calls for a palace coup.
https://twitter.com/anno1540/status/1722073084843167959?s=46&t=sdasz4O6ZZeH9RMe6vUK7w

And that Zelensky is now forced to deny that there will be elections in the country in 2024 which Russia is trying to turn into dictatorship-style.
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1721765550299468046?s=46&t=sdasz4O6ZZeH9RMe6vUK7w

All this is a Russian influence operation trying to force conflicts in the administration. If you don’t win on the battlefield, you try to cheat your way to a win as usual, simply despicable people.

I now have a new routine, as soon as a conflict flares up I google to see what interests Russia has in the area.
The Haiti and Dominican Republic border has started to move a bit.
And yes, Wagner has been thinking about establishing itself in Haiti.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/leaked-documents-russian-wagner-group-mercenaries-haiti-rcna79440
https://twitter.com/michaelshurkin/status/1722063082518704608?s=46&t=sdasz4O6ZZeH9RMe6vUK7w

In the Sahel it is starting to get generally unstable due to too many weapons.
Russia is the big seller of weapons in Sub-Saharan Africa and Wagner is in the Sahel.
https://adf-magazine.com/2023/04/russia-emerges-as-top-weapons-supplier-to-sub-saharan-africa/
https://twitter.com/adfmagazine/status/1722343230316986471?s=46&t=3BYxs2cgthl6uLW1g6H6wQ
https://www.freiheit.org/spain-italy-portugal-and-mediterranean-dialogue/russian-influence-sahel-wagner-and-support-military

I will continue with this, I thought, everything is of course circumstantial but I believe RU uses Wagner as gasoline on all sorts of fires around the world partly for general destabilization and for blood money.

If Russia has enough weapons, why do they want all countries that have received weapon platforms in recent years to give them back?
Hot tip that the USA has called and notified that they see everything and there will be very little returned to Russia.
https://twitter.com/flash_news_ua/status/1722362052889501977?s=46&t=3BYxs2cgthl6uLW1g6H6wQ

Putin’s election campaign is in full swing right now, everyone is doing their part.
https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1722301185581887920?s=46&t=3BYxs2cgthl6uLW1g6H6wQ
https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1722386914475454928?s=46&t=3BYxs2cgthl6uLW1g6H6wQ

I have never dived deep into this but my take now on G…a is that H…as is a criminal group that has stolen all aid funds and other resources to both enrich themselves and build up their fighting capability.
They have said in interviews that protection of civilians is a UN problem and they have denied civilians evacuation to maximize civilian losses – not exactly the kind of chief and leader you trust.

The leadership is if not billionaires at least multimillionaires with hotel chains and other businesses.
Meanwhile, civilians in the area are kidnapped as human shields.
More and more civilian voices are now rising and telling the truth, Twitter is flooded with videos.
https://twitter.com/marionawfal/status/1722034948486447402?s=46&t=sdasz4O6ZZeH9RMe6vUK7w

The West should have realized this a long time ago but has played along since 2007, I guess, bad for the civilians in G…a who have lived under criminal rule.

This is what it looked like when journalists got to see H…as home cameras from 7 October, it was probably hard not to close your eyes.
https://twitter.com/mossadil/status/1721932908963758419?s=46&t=sdasz4O6ZZeH9RMe6vUK7w

I know it is far too early but obviously the attempts made with self-governance have not worked and the world community should seriously consider what needs to be done after I..el has wiped out H..as. Occupation of I..el – a very bad idea!
The UN could have a demarcation zone as in so many other conflicts and then try to rebuild the area again to self-governance, its own country or whatever but with a UN buffer in between and where the UN holds hands so that the next criminal clan doesn’t just take over in the vacuum?

Then we have an attempted murder on Abbas and he recently went out and criticized H..as so there is some connection even if it is anecdotal.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1721923819655381392?s=46&t=taSMIf15k8IuA0ZtxAEsUg

No need to worry that MENA would pull CRG away from China’s neighborhood, there are 3CRG left 😀
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1722099061400957396?s=46&t=sdasz4O6ZZeH9RMe6vUK7w

All I see is increasing intensity around the Dnieper where point after point on the list is being checked off 👍

12:28 – MatsExtrude

Thanks for the situation report!

Dnieper and Avdiivka will be a good litmus test to see what resources the Russians have left. Can they manage to get reserves into the Dnieper and can they keep up the momentum at Avdiivka? Without having to weaken other places?
I don’t think so but it will be exciting to see in the next 1-2 weeks.

Interesting observations that the Russians have their fingers in the jam jar wherever unrest breaks out. Good reconnaissance. That’s kind of what one starts to suspect but hasn’t thought to look deeper into.

The question is whether the UN can keep order in Ga**, though it’s hard to see any other sensible solution.

12:45 – Johan No.1

It will be very interesting to see how RU now acts around the Dnieper, yep.

Yes, it’s really “how do you proceed” that is interesting with G…a I think, H..as will probably be purged quite soon.

12:47 – Johan No.1

Orihiv is in the area where you can move under cover and where there is a lot of protection, a good bridgehead.

Khakovka is just the locality and then there are open fields so trying to break out of a bridgehead up there if RU is on defense is difficult.

Right now I suspect that UA will cross the river in more places to increase pressure and then they need access to bridges to establish themselves seriously.

Time is also a factor here, if RU manages to get down a couple of CAAs that simply run over the defense, very little is achieved.

12:59 – MatsExtrude

Actually surprised that it has gone relatively quickly for Is***. Thought it would be much tougher fighting than what has been seen so far. Maybe it can be that they don’t have as much support among the local population in Ga** as one might think when seeing all the demonstrations around the world. Easy to stand and cheer when you are safe yourself and a completely different thing when you are on site.

Just hope it’s over soon and that a workable solution can be found.

13:14 – Johan No.1

Hah, it’s a bit like with Iran and Western demonstrations for covered heads and then the Iranian women themselves say that we die to be able to show our hair.

The civilians in G…a seem to be more than reasonably tired of H…as’s criminal rule but if you sent a family from G…a to argue how reality is in a demonstration in Europe they would be lynched immediately.

The world right now is very strange.