11:02 – Johan No.1
We asked the other day which units are fighting in Avdiivka now, it seems to be 1 and 2 AC so it is the rebels who are going and dying on the potato fields.
It is significant because it means that the offensive reserve they had prepared is used up and that they are now decimating the defense in the Donetsk area because it is the rebels who have the responsibility for the defense there.
Over by the Dnieper, it is the existing units conducting counterattacks, nothing has been added, the 810th and 144th have been merged into one unit.
Then the 26th regiment over by the Dnieper is down to 30% of its personnel. Quite a few brigades that we have gotten reports on in recent months are under a thousand down to a few hundred.
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1728235020559495672?s=46&t=orTJcTY3pZ_-B8FeMsQhtQ
This was very interesting, the Russians are destroying coal mines in the darkest Donbass – you wouldn’t do that if you planned to annex the area, right?
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1728175612928606574?s=46&t=orTJcTY3pZ_-B8FeMsQhtQ
It is a discussion that is good in the media, that the West must rearm – the West absolutely must do that. In that discussion, Russian capability in the near future is portrayed as a threat from 2 years to 6-8 years.
The problem is that this is immediately cut off by those who then say – “now we can’t send more weapons to Ukraine” or “then maybe the best thing is for Ukraine to give up Donbass for peace so there will be no more wars.”
So without questioning that the West needs to rearm significantly because the West absolutely needs to do that, I want to counter the pro-Russian arguments with hard numbers –
And to hammer it in – the West shall and must rearm.
How much does the USA alone have –
6230 Bradleys.
4000 Abrams
400 HIMARS
1000 777
950 F16
6000 M113
155mm shells are a state secret but the USA denies that they are starting to run low on them and have sent 1.5 million to UA.
The USA could, without reducing its capability the least bit, send 1500 Bradleys and 500 Abrams to Ukraine, right?
This is not unit-assigned equipment and that number would absolutely make a difference and was also what Ukraine had on its wish list.
I am not doing the same exercise with EU material but there are enormous amounts of Ptgb, APC, IFV and MBT in the West’s warehouses, I want to say tens of thousands but that might be a bit much.
The numbers below are after a quick Google search, I know I should do a full fact check but time is the biggest problem in my life right now.
What does Sweden have in invasion defense –
4 submarines
5 corvettes
96 JAS
So it is this firewall a Russian landing fleet must get through to reach Sweden’s coast.
Does it feel likely?
Yes, RU can unleash a missile rain but we have probably started to get air defense capability against that now. How well did it go with 5000 missiles in Ukraine to knock out their capability – not so well.
If units were to land or be air-dropped now, infantry in trenches with GRG, anti-tank weapons or anti-air missiles have proven to work excellently in Ukraine.
The Home Guard is about 25,000 men.
We have two maneuver brigades and some other small stuff (right?).
Russia therefore has no submarines in the Baltic Sea (I think) and submarine hunts submarine best.
I found no size on their Baltic fleet but in the Black Sea they have been beaten by a country without a fleet so four submarines can cause enormous damage and our corvettes have a hard bite.
Priority targets are the landing ships and now they have probably also left the Baltic Sea but there were about 6 total?
If they hypothetically managed to land from all six ships before being destroyed, which is unlikely, Swedish capability would be enough to defeat them.
Air landings?
They must cross the entire Baltic Sea or helicopter ships (however many they have?) and then air-land – 96 frontline aircraft get you far and in Ukraine they have shown to be very reluctant to air landings after Hostomel which was a disaster. I have the impression that Russia is generally very reluctant to air landings.
Norrland via Finland – that Russia could get through northern Finland is unlikely, trust the ranger brigades.
How do you think RU would get supplies to Sweden with today’s missiles?
They must have a ship in a port and unload – biggest bullseye ever.
Sweden can within 2-6-8 years build up a capability that has too high a threshold effect for Russia regardless of what they manage to build new – we have production numbers for all their weapon types.
Sweden can calmly continue to support Ukraine and at the same time build new capability but there is no risk that we leave the front door open and get overrun as pro-Russian debaters want to make it seem.
Yes, I extrapolate quite a bit and it is the defense force’s task to manage risk and plan long-term and this is not an attempt to have opinions about their priorities but just to meet the pro-Russian side’s influence operations.
Gotland is always somewhat at risk but the island is now fortified and they are probably continuing to build up the defense there if one guesses.
Enough about that.
The partisans behind the southern front have become very active and they do not leave the shadows and expose themselves before it is time for bigger movements, that should be clear.
Again 1:20 ratio at Avdiivka and they knock out everything before they see the combat targets. Indirect fire accounts for 80% of the losses and UA cannot lose many in that slaughter.
https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1727479322787647951?s=46&t=2hYLcrCTP9vw9jpFEOAW8w
Looks very good thus.
12:28 – MatsExtrude
👍Send at least 10%. The more we send the faster the Russian gets beaten. If we happen to send more than needed we can simply take it back after the war.
So we cannot send too much, only too little..
13:05 – Johan No.1
A loan, they get to borrow lots of Leo2 until the war is over and then they are returned in the condition they are, sort of.
19:18 – Johan No.1
I know I keep repeating this but now all Geroman’s tweets are appearing in my feed.
I have never clicked on a pro-Russian account, 100% feelgood videos or pro-UA and notice how the feed has changed character the last month to everything you don’t want to see.
Cambridge analytica 2.0 – own the platform instead.
20:11 – Johan No.1
Ping-pong pizza happened and the Democrats stole the election from T…p.
My feed is packed with the wildest theories right now.
Twitter is definitely manipulating my feed hard, what I watch – Ukraine is silenced and the whole Qanon conspiracies are flooding my feed right now 😬
20:31 – Johan No.1
General Flynn appears out of nowhere.
07:25 – MatsExtrude
+1 Well written!
I don’t think the environmental movement really needed Russian infiltration. The fear of nuclear power seems deeply rooted and not even when the climate crisis has emerged as the biggest future environmental threat has one managed to rethink that issue.
#RussiaIsATerroristState
07:52 – Johan No.1
It has probably been up but now Abrams are at the active front.
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1728584832387531036?s=46&t=5RsWEhUPqCPWrQOy5XwRCw
08:03 – MatsExtrude
👍
09:42 – Johan No.1
Yes, they go on their own but are pushed in the right direction when needed. LW usually uses the term “useful idiots” for the large group that does not understand whose errands they run.
09:46 – Johan No.1
If one tries to answer the question, the number of crimes against people who identify as j..s (that’s probably how it should be written nowadays?) is actually largely not from the far right.
Probably due to the MENA conflict and that the number of people who have opinions in that conflict is many times greater than the very small group of people who identify as far right in Sweden.
That said, the far right of course wants all evil also against those who identify as j…s.
09:48 – Johan No.1
Crimes often involve a person wearing a visible Star of David… in a piece of jewelry or a head covering being verbally attacked, spat on, or pushed just because they are wearing that symbol.
This contributes to the number of crimes from different groups being weighted towards the group that has the most members.
Unclear how it looks with planned murders and more serious crimes, I have only read about the number of crimes divided into different categories of perpetrators.
10:31 – Johan No.1
That is a bit interesting if you can get them to move without being taken out.
ISIS armed trucks with tons of explosives that the Kurds couldn’t take out and which caused great damage due to the amount of explosives.
Russia has tried filling T54-55 or MTLB but they never get through.
Those rascals look fast and small and might be able to get close enough?
10:36 – Johan No.1
Geert Wilders wins by a landslide in the Netherlands, his support increased from 12% to 24% between October 7 and November 22 apparently, and the country is, if not in shock, at least somewhat shaken if you are to go by the Dutch people I work with.
Geert with his buddy Orban in some photo that flew by in the feed.
Trump posts a campaign video with his best pals Kim and Putin where he mocks Biden.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1727701643678912952?s=46&t=BdaFbKSIZdml-fUmjaovqw
My feed is increasingly full of pro-Russian accounts that also comment on the demonstrations in the West, the riots in Ireland, or generally dislike I..el. According to previous checks, I have zero search history supporting that, so I set ignore on all.
https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1727752926289137705?s=46&t=BdaFbKSIZdml-fUmjaovqw
In Ireland, there are serious riots after a stabbing of a child, Ireland?
https://twitter.com/radiogenoa/status/1727793056605221206?s=46&t=BdaFbKSIZdml-fUmjaovqw
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1727795331201388750?s=46&t=BdaFbKSIZdml-fUmjaovqw
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1727800966563434610?s=46&t=BdaFbKSIZdml-fUmjaovqw
It might be worth checking opinion polls in other Western countries after October 7 perhaps, because Geert Wilders is generally considered to be quite friendly towards Putin and there is this whole link between all the right-wing populists and various people who have been connected to Russia and loans or outright bribes.
The fact that there have been outright lynch mobs running around looking for j…s on Europe’s streets for 1.5 months might have started to influence broader layers that previously were quite tolerant to move rightward?
They have gone as far as painting stars on j…a stores, or we know they haven’t done that because it was a Russian influence operation but the broad masses don’t know that because the media does not report on this in a way that people absorb.
“France’s foreign minister claims that the stars were painted by Moldovans who can be linked to a Russian citizen, Russia categorically denies all involvement and claims that France is anti-Russian”
When you have read that, you feel there are two sides and nothing is definitive, and then you forget it.
I..el has in a very interesting way managed to drive opinion for their cause by putting up posters with the kidnapped children that the pro-P…a movement has made a sport of tearing down on film, so there is some counteraction.
Nigel Farage, who managed to wrestle a Brexit, was exposed with a half-million-pound gift from a Russian media. The cunning one immediately thinks about how many gifts have not been exposed because someone made a mistake.
As PerraG55 always points out, it is not ideology that drives today, it is money and these colorful figures on the far right also get rock star status from having been nobody.
I personally think the media is playing a very high-stakes game if they consider themselves guardians of the truth because there is probably an imminent risk in Europe that right-wing populist parties take off after these lynch mobs who in some places have even managed to catch a j… and beat him to death to the great delight of the crowd.
Otherwise, this is something I have only seen in the poorest countries in Africa and it does not leave one unaffected – now also on Europe’s streets to the masses’ cheers.
We all know how riots go, they start as a demonstration with a good cause and then it is hijacked by veterans in how to manipulate crowds and then it breaks loose.
While the whole West is boiling with demonstrations for H..as and G…a, the civilians in G…a demonstrate AGAINST H…as – do we even understand how wrong this has become?
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1727613622816260436?s=46&t=qvGu_4k6ch_O6Wnov_5tTw
About as wrong as this – in 1944 the RK made an official statement after visiting concentration camps that they were not extermination camps, and by then Poland had already tried to make the world understand what was going on for a long time.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1728141372140499447?s=46&t=orTJcTY3pZ_-B8FeMsQhtQ
Not even Kristersson escapes influence operations, now what he said in anger is distorted and making rounds around the world.
https://x.com/CarlOskar/status/1727936243495788864?s=20
If 30,000 people march in a parade and there are five placards with the text “kill all J…s” then the country’s interpretation of the demonstration will be that they wanted to kill all J…s. It doesn’t take more than that.
Marine Le Pen has direct connections with the dictatorship in Russia, it is proven.
Varoufakis in Greece has come out as pro-Russian.
Tulsi Gabbard pro-Russian.
For those who bother to look, there are probably many more on the right wing who are either against Ukraine or caught red-handed.
Why would they abstain?
They have nothing, no money and no status and Russia offers them rock star status and financial independence and there are always enough who are willing to betray their country (a bit old-fashioned word yes but I think it is applicable).z
During the Cold War, there were certain groups who dreamed of coming under the warm umbrella of the Soviet Union on purely ideological grounds.
Today it is money and celebrity.
We plod along in the West, it definitely gets worse and the conflicts bigger but the countries do not cease to function – in 2006 when I arrived in a war-torn country in Africa that had just reached a ceasefire, that country also functioned despite citizens eating every third day. People are a pretty tough breed was my conclusion.
But… there is absolutely no reason to let the Russians worsen our lives – a very good example is the shutdown of nuclear power which was directly followed by demands for the shutdown of hydropower (or at least demands for much stricter costly regulations that caused many smaller hydropower plants to close) while Greenpeace marketed Clean Air Gas from Russia (or whatever it was called).
A Russian influence operation that led to skyrocketing electricity bills last winter of 15,000 SEK in December and January for some (me…). Where we live, families with children moved into two-room apartments or simply lowered the indoor temperature to 16 degrees or something but emptied their savings account nonetheless.
There_is_zero_reason_to_accept_this, Russia has some kind of carte blanche to destroy the West as much as they can and I don’t understand why – classify them as “state sponsor and terrorism” and get rid of the parasite in the free West 🤬