15:14 – MatsExtrude
👍 Thanks for today’s report!!
15:24 – Johan No.1
💥✊🧐
15:46 – Johan No.1
Yes, one wonders, they are not on site and figures from inside Russia have infinitely larger margins of error than Ukraine has. Are they sitting and vacuuming satellite images perhaps?
Ukraine has first-hand sources and according to earlier we know that photography applies but now that they have drones it should be quite easy to count the daily harvest when doing overflights of the battlefield?
We also know that spectacular raids are rarely counted because they cannot be verified so rather underestimated than overestimated.
How many of the wounded do the British consider return to front service?
For UA it is 80%.
Then I can’t make it add up, 190k at the start of the war + 300k mobilization + 20,000 per month + 2 times called up at 100k – the losses would give more than the +400,000 that are in Ukraine today however many that was.
But maybe Ukraine is wrong there too of course?
How many do the British consider are on the ground today in Ukraine, that should be easier to count than the number of dead?
16:00 – MatsExtrude
Have not seen anything about how large forces the British estimate the Russians have on site.
As you write, it should almost be easier to make a correct estimate of that.
12:58 – Johan No.1
Forward around the clock every day ✊
https://twitter.com/nevedimka123/status/1731284491749015714?s=46&t=tTjArRrugI6ddqdAWUKYVw
Now, as usual, there will be a lot of worry because the West has not sent weapons, and below I try to put it into perspective when the narrative that there is nothing to send spreads like wildfire, which of course is completely false.
However, it is indisputable that Ukraine needs (direct) firepower and shrapnel protection; they face a lot of Russians in trenches and maybe 1700 tanks, of which at least 30% are in depots with technical faults and over 600 are T62 or older.
The drone weapon does wonders against the tanks, and as a threat, they are not urgent today.
The minefields are very stubborn, and yes, Russia is naturally laying new minefields further back. Ukraine still needs to get mine-clearing equipment in large quantities, but that is not today’s exercise.
The entire spring offensive, summer, and autumn, Ukraine has held back heavy vehicles and let the infantry do the heavy lifting because they have not received enough and especially do not know how much they will get in the future – street-smart but forced.
I am pitching again to give Ukraine armored vehicles, anti-tank weapons, and shrapnel-protected troop transports in very large quantities.
Production figures.
-We know that all Strykers would be phased out, there are almost 5000 of them.
-27,000 MRAPs have been manufactured.
-There have been 80,000 M113s produced, so there should still be plenty to take from 😀
-M1117 is also probably being phased out, there are 2000 of them.
-Bradleys, they can send 1500 without reducing US capability.
-The French Renault vehicles number about 4500-5000 (from memory)?
-AMX-10, there are 1700 of them.
-Gepard, maybe 300-400 more?
-CV90, there are probably still 1200?
And so on – give Ukraine 15,000 – 20,000 armored vehicles on loan until the war is won!
Yes, it will take time to transport and deploy all to units, but you can start delivering to prioritized brigades and then have huge depot areas in Poland near the border to fill and draw from.
All these vehicles have been trained on, so presumably Ukraine has its own instructors now; anything else would be negligence?
Yes – maintenance will be a hell, but the war is won when half is delivered and Ukraine knows they don’t have to be frugal because they can lose 10,000 and still have just as many left.
All old Eastern equipment then goes to territorials who can already handle Soviet vehicles, freeing up a new battery of battle-hardened mechanized brigades instead of just capable infantry.
Then Ukraine wins the war because they can attack mechanized on all fronts simultaneously and add a tank platoon or two per battalion or something as direct support under the battalion commander as a battalion resource.
They were experimenting quite creatively with their mechanized assaults in autumn 2022 with what they had, but since then they have absolutely shifted to infantry combat, and one factor I believe is that they have not received enough and do not know if they will get more and that they lost many.
Besides their tanks, the Russians have about 4500 armored vehicles in Ukraine including BMP-1 and MTLB, or that number has probably decreased by a few thousand now after the disastrous autumn offensive?
Yes, I throw around production numbers, but there are ENORMOUS amounts of equipment in warehouses.
Above all – The Great Fear of the Russians’ MBTs and IFVs in stockpiles that we constantly hear about, why is NO ONE summing up what exists in the West, which is magnitudes more?
Instead, the media starts writing that the West has nothing more to send, completely incomprehensible…
And when you’ve gotten this far, you also understand how very little of what is available has been sent to Ukraine, almost in the per mille range. Even of such equipment that is to be phased out.
And after this war, there will be technological leaps anyway, and many vehicles will be obsolete.
Meanwhile, the Russians are increasingly struggling to find anything other than T62 and T54-55 these days.
Yes, it must be trained, maintained, ammunition, fuel, and all that, but start stockpiling in depots and start sending out to units. Just having thousands of vehicles in depots near the Ukrainian border sends a strong signal to Putin.
Everything depends on how Putin interprets his reality. Right now, Putin feels just like us that Ukraine has gotten just enough so they won’t lose, and he thinks that’s good. In his world, he believes the West will give in because they have done so in the last 15 years, that Western support is temporary.
His subversive activities are running at full speed to force exactly that, and he has ordered the army to give an illusion of at least frozen fronts and any Russian initiative he can magnify and make propaganda about.
He needs to feel this is lost, and that is best done with enormous amounts of materiel – “the war-winning deliveries” we hoped for but that never really came.
It cannot be said often enough, Ukraine needs materiel to beat the Russians, and the drone weapon replaced air superiority, so maybe armored vehicles in large quantities can replace the tank that obviously will not show up?
For a Russian in a trench, it’s not that much difference whether it’s a Stryker or a T72 when he’s lying at the bottom of the trench because the RPG ammunition has run out.
Ukraine needs to be allowed to get its win, and this is the best I can come up with; partly, there will never be enough MBTs delivered, and it seems to then hold back other deliveries in some mysterious way I don’t understand, a lock.
Then they can drive a mechanized battalion straight into the defense systems where half the vehicles are knocked out but the infantry survives and can break through seriously.
Sending a few thousand M113s when 80,000 have been produced is actually quite hard to understand.
The reason this will work is because they have total dominance in the drone weapon and guided artillery ammunition.
Then shrapnel-protected vehicles are enough, a poor man’s solution since the West does not send what is needed.
-The LV denies RU air superiority.
-The drone weapon becomes UA air superiority, Lex Dnepr.
-The artillery is heavily decimated, that is indisputable.
-A large number of shrapnel-protected vehicles compensate for the lack of tanks on the battlefield.
Ukraine gets the advantage they need and wins the war with their poor man’s solutions.
I guess what Stoltenberg meant in that distorted RIA note,
Only about 20 ATACMS have been sent, there are probably a couple thousand in total?
https://twitter.com/ehunterchristie/status/1731347922829054201?s=46&t=NAJR-SdDyyIZTAYeloQcVQ
It is clear that the missile rain has stopped, we hope it is temporary.
FAB600 and FAB1500 are a big problem for UA now that they managed to get rid of the AHKP by knocking them out on the ground.
They are dropped beyond LV range, and the blast is big enough to damage UA where they are used.
That the West could not send precision aircraft in time for this offensive is completely incomprehensible 🤬
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1731312874163720537?s=46&t=NAJR-SdDyyIZTAYeloQcVQ
This offensive was fully resourced, but now it is time for more ammunition and weapon platforms; the artillery is also expended at some point, right – the same problem as for the Russians that the barrels run out and that battlefield losses are taken in everything.
So far, the gas is not finished, but if the UA offensive completely stops, it gives Putin something he does not deserve and only because the West has delayed, we shall see.
But at the fronts, it is far from a sharp situation at all, Avdiivka holds, Mariinka was a lie, at the Dnieper the first regiment from the 104th AAD has been totally eliminated.
https://twitter.com/andysch64494719/status/1731542056051355709?s=46&t=NAJR-SdDyyIZTAYeloQcVQ
We Horlivka take UA strategic terrain and up in the Kreminna forests Azov hunts the game Russian in pits night and day.
https://twitter.com/andysch64494719/status/1731542034203246622?s=46&t=NAJR-SdDyyIZTAYeloQcVQ
During the month of November, RU took 9000 losses just in the Bakhmut area – half-dead and presumably euthanized.
https://twitter.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1731406254705107337?s=46&t=tTjArRrugI6ddqdAWUKYVw
And then the unexplained fires in Russia due to the standard excuse of electrical faults are sharply increasing, Erik14 posted a whole series yesterday.
There is no answer against the liberation acts.
https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1731226171063304359?s=46&t=2rlIUD0l5W1sHzq2W_XDTw
But yes, there is some counterfire from RU as well but not in Ukraine.
Maiden 3 is apparently the name of the 1.5 billion influence operation we have discussed in the thread for a month now. Nothing happens ideologically anymore so money must of course be paid to get the masses going.
https://twitter.com/notafella69/status/1731027454674751870?s=46&t=2rlIUD0l5W1sHzq2W_XDTw
We also said in the thread that the demonstrations for P….a will soon turn against the USA and the West, that has also happened – enormously predictable since it is the same old Cold War plans that have been dusted off.
https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1731258873523130808?s=46&t=2rlIUD0l5W1sHzq2W_XDTw
And then they managed to get the rebels in Y…en to fire anti-ship missiles at the US destroyer and three civilian ships.
Who gave them the anti-ship missiles – Iran of course.
There were also Iranian-made reconnaissance drones preceding the attack which gave rise to the misunderstanding that it was a drone attack but it was actually anti-ship missiles if we have the correct information.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1731430252935619059?s=46&t=NAJR-SdDyyIZTAYeloQcVQ
Different subject, I…el has fired quite a lot of counterfire in the media and many videos fly by on how P…a children are radicalized early. We learn respect and to solve conflicts with words in school, P…a children learn that a good J..e is a dead J…e.
Since this radicalization has been going on for a very long time, one can guess that the men who participated in 7 October have undergone this brainwashing.
The level of torture was absolutely incomprehensible and if one has taken part of the testimonies one understands that these men would have been at the worst level in Sweden if they had committed this type of crime here, it would have been in the newspapers for at least a month until it died out.
https://twitter.com/elad_si/status/1731262925241782471?s=46&t=tTjArRrugI6ddqdAWUKYVw
Hard to get at in other countries but when UNRWA through Western aid money runs an education system that radicalizes, we have gone seriously wrong.
Below is terrible reading because the woman knows she will die and only asks for a quicker death 😐
https://twitter.com/bariweiss/status/1731398568370725161?s=46&t=tTjArRrugI6ddqdAWUKYVw
This one is also interesting, in the USA lynch mobs roam around and pinpoint j…a stores and chant their slogans.
https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1731479504416116916?s=46&t=NAJR-SdDyyIZTAYeloQcVQ
Hard to see that it is not positive at the fronts – the Kreminna forests and Dnieper forward and that the lines hold at Avdiivka and Bakhmut and at least in Bakhmut RU seems to have run out of gas.
We shall see if RU has anything more to send to Avdiivka, a bit ambiguous right now whether it slows down or continues at the same pace.
At the Dnieper, the “strategic reserve” 104th AAD, which I do not think was a strategic reserve, has been decimated by 30% or something already.
It annoys me immensely that UA does not get missiles, ATACMS, ammunition, vehicles and everything they point at right now because then this war would have ended faster but that the war is already lost for RU is clear to me.
Can RU forever handle 50 hard vehicles and 1500 killed or half-dead per day?
I don’t think so and what PerraG55 wrote today about the situation in Russia sounds promising.