2024-01-12 -

11:54 – Johan No.1

Has anyone seen Gerasimov on video with today’s newspaper for a while now, he seems to have taken an extended leave from his position leading the war in Ukraine?

The bridgehead over the Dnieper is simply impossible for the Russians to fully capture.
The 205th MRB has been withdrawn as the soldiers protested too much and other brigades have refused to advance but are okay with defense – the command is gradually losing control.
https://x.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1740708682344587405?s=20

The fact that they cannot take that bridgehead speaks volumes about the Russian units in the area. We know that UA has its marine corps in the fight, which is an absolute elite unit but it’s about a battalion strong.
You might remember someone in the thread doing somersaults when we heard about Davydiv Brid and the genius of that plan – you go over into a lightly defended area and force RU onto the highway to strike the threat.
Then you wipe them out all the way to the attack objective and only the last three give up breath on the stairs up to the bunker.

That mechanic battalion was overrun in a few weeks if I recall correctly when VDV was rushed there.

UA just pulled the same rope trick again, RU has to get up and band on the highway to reach the area and artillery, air force, army aviation, and drones decimate them heavily before they even come within firing range of the defense.
The biggest problem UA has had is all the FAB500 and FAB1500 bombs dropped as they are devastating but now that weapon usage seems to have decreased.
Brigade after brigade for RU is wiped out in the battle for Krunky and the marine corps runs about one battalion at a time that manages fairly well – a good ratio.

It seems RU has committed the last reserves in the area that were available and there is grumbling about Teplinsky’s incompetence.
I just want to point out that there are 13 UA brigades on the right bank of the Dnieper eating sausages and an absolute forest of SOF units.
The 104th AAD is decimated and the 83rd GAAB was heavily decimated before it arrived at the Dnieper front so no real reserve there.
At the Dnieper, it looks really bad for the Russians no matter how you twist and turn it.

At the southern front, it is the same old smashed Russian regiments standing and shivering in the trenches but UA probably has less offensive capacity there today since most has been moved to other hotspots. But that can change in a week or two when UA wishes.
I have quite a lot of understanding that UA’s offensive died out at the southern front when RU started their offensive – the number of units that had to be moved was considerable and they lost the advantage they had.

I wrote before Christmas that Klishchiivka would be the litmus test over by Bakhmut and now almost a month later Klishchiivka holds. Bakhmut has been excellent as a flytrap 👍
The fact is that there was nothing wrong with that plan – pull a lot of units to Bakhmut and then strike at the southern front.
The idea was probably that the crossing of the Dnieper would have come when the dam at Khakovka was blown up in early June, I think.

The same at Avdiivka, RU has made zero progress in the area and it is indisputable that they have weakened the defense in the area which is DPR’s responsibility. Since they are responsible for the area, it should be a weak point as soon as the Russian command decides to move their RU brigades elsewhere and leave DPR to solve the task.
There has also been discussion about RU losing authority in DPR and LPR generally but I have been involved in that for too long for it to be credible – the rebels’ capitulation 😀

Up in northern Luhansk, RU has lost astronomically many men and hardware but also withdrawn many units.
However, it seems they have reinforced in the Kreminna forests recently, I flew past something about them planning a renewed offensive there.

Overall, it does not look bad at all and the Russians’ winter offensive seems to have run out of steam so now we just have to see what Zalizhny gets to do for the USA and EU and how many yellow cards they have in hand 🤬

This thing about district heating breaking down in half of Russia is quite logical, it’s a big pipe coming into an area and if you cut it the area gets cold. Then all pipes probably freeze within a few hours everywhere and when they try to heat up with the gas stove or whatever it is, the pipes have burst and there are leaks. To me, it is highly likely that there is a campaign going on from the “liberation fronts” and/or UA.
Anecdotal evidence is presented for the incorrigible doubters who never learn 😀
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1745362912196329973?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The liberation acts against war-important industry continue, the factories that manufacture T90 and T80 (which were supposed to restart) have had unexplained fires and explosions in this year’s tsunami of technical faults and accidents.
Here is some aircraft maintenance workshop that got a visit,
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1745545422603423822?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The liberation acts in operation “turn off the lights in Russia” continue relentlessly against the power grid and it is getting darker in the country.
They start their journey down into darkness with rolling power outages in the Moscow region 🤣🤣💥
https://x.com/azovsouth/status/1745568996768747855?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

New liberation acts against trains or tracks have been reported recently so ongoing.

And not least the drone swarms over Ukrainian neighboring oblasts, Kursk, Belgorod, Rostov na Don, and so on, every day.

Ukraine has certainly taken the war to Russia and Russia is completely unable to defend itself, like a big whale stranded roughly.
Now all that is missing is for the West to give Ukraine a yellow card for this too even though no Western weapons have been used, so everything is as usual in this war 😐

UA has already carried out liberation acts against oil fields but more can be done there.
And they have targeted strategic bombers but more can also be done there which will come, doubters need not doubt.
https://x.com/azovsouth/status/1745029842259620237?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Time for some high blood pressure again, the USA is now ready to “take some of the frozen 300 billion dollars and contribute to the rebuilding of Ukraine”. What the HELL happened to the 300 billion dollars to buy weapons, damn clowns 🤬
Apparently, the USA also offered at the start of the war to fly out Zalizhny, good that Ukrainians are made of tungsten and have integrity.

https://x.com/mbielieskov/status/1745417115341918376?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
A lot of what is coming out now looks bad for the West and if we in the thread think the West is dragging its feet you can guess how Putin’s analysts present it to Putin. War prolonging simply with all the Chamberlains.

Then I understand that one must honor entered agreements, but that Orban gets three Leo 2s in the latest mod is pretty lame…
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1745155623291928667?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

And this is even lamer, 90% of all prisoners of war and civilian prisoners are tortured, take that!
https://x.com/sumlenny/status/1745078296449073452?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

But there are bright spots, the EU will be able to deliver those 1 million shells this spring,
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1745062789729619987?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

India stops buying Russian oil – BRIICS is really doing great.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1745058082424492098?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

RU losses of 152mm have decreased and now it is the heavier calibers that are being knocked out.
https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1741906641425989931?s=46&t=L53rSBS3xvSNqHvQyn_R1w

From Lisbon to Luhansk but not as Putin intended.
https://x.com/ducugavril/status/1744838570915876987?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Now you can start putting 1+1 together here with how the West has acted in the war and this will have to be IG.
I have consistently overestimated the West’s will and what has gone on behind the scenes and have all along believed that they delivered more and trained more than they have announced, but it is the opposite.
The West is a bit lucky here that Putin was dumb enough to jump on Ukraine and dangled the chance in front of them to retaliate for hundreds of years of oppression – it is an existential struggle that has united the country completely.

From my parents’ basement room, this looks like high risk, there ARE different factions in Ukraine and there are others who want to become president. The ground troops consist of three branches and so far everyone is pulling in the same direction somewhat. Zelensky is a unifying force that should not be underestimated – our time’s Churchill is almost an understatement.

Russian subversive activity is simmering all the time, they succeeded with the blitz offensive down on the southern front because they managed to infiltrate, but Zelensky is lucky that GUR and the other letter agencies cleaned out the worst before the war started and stood on the right side even though the poisoning of Budanov’s wife (meaning Budanov) signals that not everything is sunshine.

Think about what would happen if Ukraine fell?
Russia’s border would be against Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland.
Slovakia and Hungary are already Putin allies and Moldova would have fallen like a ripe mango.
Serbia is a Putin ally and guess how it has gone with Romania, Bulgaria, and the Balkans over time?
The Baltics are low-hanging fruit and they would have been lost over time and suddenly the united EU would not have been so united anymore and probably the West would eventually have started something new without the former Soviet states.
Ukraine stands between the resurrection of Soviet borders…

The war has made the citizens in Serbia, Hungary, and Slovakia able to start waking up and demonstrating. In all the countries, there are many demonstrations and in Serbia it seems to be really moving, which is nice, freedom for all.
https://twitter.com/tomasliptai/status/1737167987470225877?s=46&t=XoZVoz3-tEw16VVSX5VCiQ

For me, it is crystal clear that the geopolitical atomic bomb has exploded and that it now hangs in the balance between Soviet 2.0 or Russia turning inward and splitting into about a dozen new countries, and what will decide is whether Ukraine wins the war or not.

It is of course absolutely crucial for Ukraine whether they get weapons from the West or not, I think everyone understands that.
So that the West drags its feet and dawdles like a newly awakened teenager around lunchtime can very well have highly tangible consequences for the world order we have grown up with.

It is no secret that much of the passivity in the West is due to Russian subversive activity and you have to give them that they are Olympic champions there. It is definitely time to uproot this now but maybe we are not there yet. I will return in the next post with my favorite, the Russian subversive activity. If I may guess, many in the thread have made a similar journey as me, at first it feels completely unbelievable and that Johan No.1 should play more computer games in his parents’ basement instead of running conspiracies, but eventually you realize the extent of the subversive activity and absolutely are stunned. Anecdotal evidence that fits into the bigger picture you did not dare believe until you feel it is now proven what they are up to as a prioritized state function.

12:15 – Johan No.1

Promised favorite in reprise that never gets tiresome (some irony as I have probably worn everyone out by now).

I like Twitter links that you can reason about or that support what you write. That does not mean the information does not come from credible sources because it is taken from somewhere. If you dive deep into a subject and report everything it becomes too time-consuming so you cannot broaden enough.

Russian subversive activity during the Cold War is interesting reading and enormously extensive. This war has exposed Russian subversive activity today for me and I have partly had an easy time recognizing it and understanding what it is with the knowledge from how they raged during the Cold War but also the opposite – what was guessed was true during the Cold War has turned out to be true because they dust off old favorite projects and run them again. It was fun to see that we were close to the truth in all those discussions. Conversely – those who argued against what agenda did they have 😀

85% of the KGB budget went to subversive activity in the West – someone in the thread often writes that this is a prioritized state activity to destabilize the West.
The West tries to make the world a little better and we are democracies so we stay within limits Russia knows and they exploit that maximally.
Then in between when it goes too far the West strikes back but nowadays the West is very passive and Russia considers itself at war with the West and has dusted off all old influence operations and come up with lots of new ones that fit the present.
https://x.com/gaudetterob/status/1745201519173960102?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

October 7 was the starting shot to take the Ukraine war global – there is irrefutable evidence that Russia motivated, trained, paid, and resourced H…’s terrorist attacks (is not a strong enough word).
At a given signal, Houthi began shooting drones and rockets at everything moving in the Red Sea, Venezuela is suddenly going to invade Gabon, Serbia wants to invade former Yugoslav countries, and North Korea is firing artillery into South Korea.
Houthi has been VERY active to say the least…
https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/1742800840975683974?s=46&t=8L5IbsvcVafDxqKYiQQmmQ
https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1739747681772110316?s=46&t=LT5AOQVpOhNDrokqJMeBKA

We also have indications that Russia is trying to start conflicts in Africa which is ongoing but has not yet lit up with great suffering and refugee flows.
However, I think we all understand that Russia will not give up anything that worked, 2015 became medals and champagne again for that now heavily alcoholic, from all the champagne, middle manager at GRU whose operations have always been successful.
They have reactivated refugee flows partly through Russia and Belarus but also buy plane seats for “millions of dollars” for migrants to Mexico who are supposed to get up to the USA. Russia is now established in Mexico.

If China had followed up with Taiwan, the global conflict would have engulfed us and we would have been heading towards something new.
Now China has not yet shown what cards they have in hand, but you can interpret a lot in restraint, right?

It’s going so-so – H..as are dying in the tunnels and now in recent days the Mangla Houti operation has started.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1745604730674372957?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Inside the West, subversive activities continue undisturbed and no one is really doing anything to stamp them out. Russia is pulling all the outer groups and often pits them against each other. All conflicts are good.
They are experts at identifying conflict zones and core issues on which violence is then committed in the worst way so that it really twists the soul of the people’s home.

It has already been officially communicated that the Quran burnings were instigated by Russia and the j..hatred in the West is also Russia. Two Moldovans who went around painting stars on j..a operations were paid by Russia. It is an old classic for neo-nazis… but were Russian agents with a marker pen painting hateful messages in West Germany.
Last autumn we wrote in the thread that an attack on our Christmas celebration was a low-odds event and it did not take long to happen. Both anti-i…el demonstrators apparently hated Christmas but also mena-terrorists who had several spectacular terrorist attacks planned but Western security services were apparently on the ball this year.

Just like the Quran burnings and those who are upset about them, there is probably nothing that upsets a Christmas-loving Swede more than spectacular attacks on Christmas markets and Christmas dawn services with accompanying hate messages – it goes straight into the reptilian brain. Maybe an alcohol-free Midsummer, but that cannot be achieved with terrorist attacks.

But it goes further than that – anecdotal but fitting my picture. Opinion makers against nuclear power who have pushed hard for nuclear shutdowns in the West, and succeeded beyond expectations, have recently, when the mission was completed, shifted to arguing for peace in Ukraine and no support from the West.
To go from anti-nuclear power to burning for the West not sending weapons to Ukraine is nothing less than being part of an influence operation that has shifted focus. They have naturally had followers and it has been convenient to use the accounts but it reveals something we have guessed – that it is Russia that has actively driven the shutdown of our controllable electricity production.
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1737047490677870694?s=46&t=r3ZZkmkn2WTLmzgRndkZbQ

There are also a bunch in the thread who didn’t believe it was possible when some aired it earlier because it sounded too incredible 😀
If you want to be a bit conspiratorial, you can wonder why China is investing heavily in an energy source that is devastating for the West – wind power. A bit of a long extrapolation, I know…

Quite exciting that Spain’s new left-wing government wants to shut down all nuclear power in the country, in the middle of a raging energy crisis. Russia – surely.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1740430810036212190?s=46&t=gWxn25NP1FmSlNcmK-Q5Bg

Apparently sabotage against a German LNG pipeline that is supposed to replace NS for them but the big wave of sabotage against the West’s soft underbelly has not occurred. We will probably never know how many Russian saboteurs have been sunk in cooling ponds but I am quite surprised actually, I was quite convinced it would happen. Or maybe the problems we now have with our reactors again have a “human factor” like last year, who knows?
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1743219226138099800?s=46&t=U83BK-I3C5PtneVnGiwmNQ

Then we had Meiden 3 – a very well-funded campaign to reduce the West’s support for Ukraine and part of it was to paint Ukraine badly. I got in my feed that Zelensky bought luxury villas in the USA, someone had bought a luxury yacht and other corruption that made one half mad. Elon’s platform was completely handed over to a state-supported influence operation to reduce support for UA.
https://twitter.com/shayan86/status/1737605544121434591?s=46&t=VD6dofXUF4336vctuixuoQ

Alex Jones came back and now he openly pushes the Russian line, he doesn’t even try.
https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/1741930517530911108?s=46&t=L53rSBS3xvSNqHvQyn_R1w

Tulsi Gabbard, who came out as pro-Russian, is to be praised on Elon’s platform, we learned recently.
We have a problem – T…p’s first election used Cambridge Analytica to manipulate information and influence voters to vote for T…p.

Now Elon has a platform that clearly does the same thing where they own the platform and have great reach. If they succeeded well last election, they will succeed even better this time.

Here you have two who are on Putin’s payroll in the USA,
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1738857259868828098?s=20

Someone high up in the NSC has gone through training in Russia where many have been recruited.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1744711957096358319?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

There is a solution to all this that makes the West a little worse – make Russia a “state sponsor of terrorism” so all cooperation with them can be prosecuted. Especially if instructions were taken or payment received.
Peacefulness would settle in the West within a few months and all conflicts between groups would completely die out.
Don’t forget the criminal clans and larger gangs driven by Russia as well, that it is Russian or Yugoslav illegal weapons is perhaps no coincidence?

Then their embassies are currently running drug smuggling and trafficking, pure crime incubators that are part of the destabilization of the West, and to make money. One should not underestimate the income from all this which largely goes to those working with the operations and their bosses?
https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1744654723150491883?s=46&t=q74oqaFA8y8XX5DiU8oPCw

If Russia loses interest in the West and turns inward, much of this will disappear. Time for the West to act, I think, but maybe we should go through a few more rounds with our Chamberlain moment before it heads in the right direction.
A bright future is ours or Russia’s subversive tentacles and influence will spread more and more in half of the EU – even Johan No.1 would probably be able to make the right decision on that basis 😀

If one were paid to write articles, one could look into the news that accounts that were against nuclear power and coal have now shifted to getting the West to stop supporting Ukraine. That scoop, if one does thorough research and can show Russian involvement, would surely win the Pulitzer Prize in this era of the electricity underclass.
Personally, I have to settle for picking up anecdotal information and extrapolating too far and guessing that I am right.
For me, this subversive activity is highly interesting because it has such a great impact on citizens in the West.

14:09 – Johan No.1

There are quite a few sinners and many more who have outed themselves in this war. When RU is desperate, they demand that extra tweet that reveals them.

It is not yet illegal to think Russia is better than toast.

Personally, I think that when the parliament voted to shut down nuclear power, one of the oldest Russian influence operations succeeded; if our elected representatives don’t understand that, the resistance is not exactly aggressive against negative influence.

15:54 – MatsExtrude

Thanks for an overall positive and well-balanced essay!
What bothers me, of course, is the West’s sluggishness and the Russian subversive activity.

I feel the latter has increased significantly just in the past week/weeks.
A lot of Swedish accounts that are new or up to a couple of years old but have now been activated, and which mainly claim that worrying about Russia is just nonsense and even more foolish to strengthen the defense. Everything from more subtle variants to those who blurt out how stupid we are… Sigh!

16:12 – Johan No.1

15:59 – losses due to lack of life jackets 😭 or 🤬

The Marine Corps is among the most valuable resources Ukraine has and life jackets cost peanuts, can the West just get out of paralysis and send what Ukraine needs sometime.

16:45 – MatsExtrude

+++++

18:30 – MatsExtrude

”Show me a conflict, I’ll show you Russian involvement.”

https://twitter.com/Beefeater_Fella/status/1745769737655648480?t=z4L0i2kx0fO9mBaSv57kSA&s=19

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