13:03 – MatsExtrude
Thanks!
What is happening in the USA is pathetic and if it turns out that Europe and others cannot/will not/dare not compensate, there is a great risk that this will drag on for several years instead of being resolved this year.
If we end up there, one can only hope that those frozen $300 billion will be handed over to Ukraine. Of course, that money would have been best used after the war for the reconstruction of Ukraine, but if the military support is not strong enough, there is a risk that there will be no Ukraine left to rebuild.
13:59 – Johan No.1
Googling suggests there are about 8,000 Abrams in the USA?
Yes, exactly, I remember all the times the tax account has been a blank check without limits for commendable efforts (which have sometimes been quite okay) but in many countries everyone has become the best budget squeezers when it comes to supporting Ukraine.
Right now they are talking about using the 300 billion USD for rebuilding the country, buy weapons for every penny instead and send to Ukraine.
14:01 – Johan No.1
Yes exactly, first the barbarian horde must be driven out of the country and then it can be rebuilt. If there is a shortage of liquid funds, this huge sum is easily accessible to bridge a few years.
14:09 – Johan No.1
Maybe it was a termite 😀
The USA has seen itself as the world police and has an incredibly high opinion of itself but when, for the first time in modern history, it became a real situation, they fell into kindergarten-level quarrels. If the USA had taken this seriously from the start of the war, Ukraine would have had half a million in mechanized units in Bradleys and Abrams supported by artillery, AHKP, and F16s.
Cluster munitions would have rained down on the dug-in Russians closely followed by thermobaric bombs that killed the last will to fight and if that wasn’t enough, the A-10 would have plowed them away.
All on loan – returned in the condition it is after the war or bought out, or fully financed by the EU.
Maybe they wouldn’t have started with that, but for more than half a year now it has been politically and diplomatically unlocked, probably longer.
Above all, it is unlocked now after the winter missile barrage and just the promise that this would come would have been enough for Putin to get fed up.
They have blown away the Houthi rebels for a few hijackings in the Red Sea and have a very high profile around I…el.
Ukraine is absolutely treated preferentially here.
21:42 – Johan No.1
Thought about discussing that tomorrow but now it went up in smoke like so many other things when you’re on a roll 😀
That Trump would praise Orban, an absolutely insignificant leader who is only important in supporting Putin, speaks volumes. So much so that I am prepared to claim that Trump is pro-Russian and doing Putin’s bidding.
I know it is so but you look for the piece of information that cannot be disputed and here it is. Putin and Xi are after all world leaders but Orban is nothing – a bit like Trump going out and praising Märta Stenevi – completely unreasonable if he were a somewhat mainstream presidential candidate.
I am prepared to go as far as to say he will never set foot in the White House again.
11:28 – Johan No.1
At the same time as the operation to turn off the lights is spreading over a defenseless Russia, it is hard to ignore that the USA (because it is the USA) has completely flipped here when it comes to support for Ukraine.
The figure that is starting to circulate is that the USA has reduced its support by 90%, possibly compared to the same period last year. That is misleading because deliveries do not happen on the same dates each year, but the difference is probably significant.
A lie that was promoted by many was that the West had nothing to send, and this has now been disproven in the clearest possible way when Morocco was able to buy nearly 1000 Bradleys and Abrams very cheaply. When Bradleys take out T90Ms, the question is how the war would have gone if Ukraine had received that delivery instead.
Training, instructors, spare parts, repairs, and all that which made it impossible for Ukraine to get a few dozen seems to be no problem for the Moroccans at all apparently, I haven’t heard anything about that anyway?
Scrapping is also ongoing in many Western countries even though Ukraine has asked to buy what is to be scrapped – I guess domestic industry profits more from scrapping than if it is sold cheaply to Ukraine?
The second lie that has been promoted is that the West’s arms industry cannot be scaled up, but anyone who can google or does not have a salary from Russia has probably now figured out that it is scaling up almost exponentially.
A final misconception is that it is the GOP that is slowing everything down. A bit of hindsight: when Qanon was most active, I decided it was a Russian influence operation. A few times he took a subtle pro-Russian position that revealed him.
At that time, it was not entirely clear what the purpose was, but today one can only conclude that hardcore Qanon believers are slowing support for Ukraine, so either that was the purpose or they have achieved a good outcome.
It seems that Russia has managed to do a “2015” with migration into the USA right now. They are flying migrants for “millions of dollars” to Mexico, who then have to get into the USA, and in Texas the National Guard took over after the “border police” completely stopped controlling the migrants and just funneled them onward with various means of transport – as close to an open border as you can get, and does it feel familiar?
The GOP is probably not wrong in principle about that, but they are now doing an Erdogan & Orban on how they delay support for Ukraine, so one begins to suspect that there is a bigger agenda than just solving the border protection issue.
However, there is an enormous amount Biden can do without GOP support. He can send all kinds of materiel to Ukraine without GOP approval, and just as an example, there are 5000 active M113s and 8000 M113s in storage. They have a replacement and it will probably be phased out over the next 10 years.
Sending those 8000 in storage would not reduce the USA’s capability in the slightest, can reasonably be done without GOP, and if Ukraine puts a ZSU23-2 or any heavier caliber on them, it is a decent APC.
I just saw that it is apparently ZSU23-4 and ZU23-2 😀
What a list below, Ukraine has really tested the entire Western vehicle fleet in combat and one wonders if the purpose of a bit of everything has been just that from the West’s side.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine
Just so everyone is clear, during 2023 Ukraine has not only asked for free support, they have made inquiries to everyone about materiel purchases and often it has been surplus materiel that has been retired from the organization, like those F-18 Hornets just sitting in Australia or the helicopters they are supposed to scrap that Ukraine was not allowed to buy.
The West is NOT SELLING weapons to Ukraine that are to be SCRAPPED – it is that bad.
I have quite a lot of trust in David D as a source, he is probably a Republican but old guard and navigates this with some sense, I think.
He has now listed which weapons platforms Ukraine has tried to buy from the USA that are surplus materiel and they have been denied everything by the Biden administration.
F-18, Apache, transport helicopters, and they are blocking that NASAMS order that Canada has ordered for Ukraine.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1748538453732548852?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We are now at the end of January and the weapons-winning support package from the USA has not arrived, and it is very clear that most of those funds will stay within the USA and that a lot is not even indirect support to Ukraine – it simply became party politics.
Will it get better in the USA – it is an election year so probably not, and the USA has I..el to think about and now the Houthi operation has also come up on the agenda. If Russia manages to start something more from, for example, Iran (see below) or if NK or China moves, support for Ukraine will probably become secondary?
Europe simply has to take up the mantle and become the reluctant superhero here – rip off the band-aid now and accept that the USA has locked up.
By the way, I saw on the Wikipedia page above that Canada has promised, and maybe sent, 1000 Roshel in total, at Oryx there is a larger number with an unknown sender so it might be true.
As a comparison, the French have sent 56 VAB vehicles or thereabouts and have built 5000 of them and seem to have under 4000 operational.
Some send more than others and make much less fuss about it 😀
Then the big question is – is the West ready for superhero spandex in dark blue and a cool mask?
As I have tried to point out for a while, it is not yesterday’s production figures you should extrapolate for the coming years, according to the link below the EU will produce 1.3 million shells (I interpret that as 155mm since that is the caliber always discussed, at least for artillery?) during 2024.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1748623416796627034?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
As I posted the other day, do not underestimate Bulgaria’s arms production which is enormous but a bit under the radar because it is Soviet calibers.
Germany’s rearmament of the Bundeswehr is gigantic, almost to the point where you get a little worried 😀 and their support for Ukraine is very large.
https://x.com/nicholadrummond/status/1748436859934450137?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We have gone through France’s and the UK’s support for Ukraine but their increased budgets for their own armed forces are huge.
Other countries in the EU also spend a lot on their armed forces and the Baltic states (more than a little late 😐) will build a joint defense line against Russia now. I was convinced they had already finished mining but apparently not, some like to live with risk apparently.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1748440053292868073?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Finland has taken this EU border protection seriously and Ukraine has fortified all its liberated border against Russia, and also Belarus, with fortifications and mines.
If the Baltics get their Maginot line up, the border protection will be reasonably intact against the barbarians.
The Poles seem to have mostly invested in a high fence against Belarus, but their defense force is quite large and they have made absolutely Kilimanjaro-sized investments in it since the war started – South Korea is laughing all the way to the bank.
Then Taurus will probably come soon because this issue is starting to get politically sensitive for real.
Politicians say that if they send Taurus, no new ones can be built so they will be defenseless.
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1748564022541087177?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The manufacturer of Taurus then immediately announced that they can start manufacturing new Taurus immediately and on a large scale so that the stockpile can be replenished if it is sent to Ukraine.
https://x.com/julianroepcke/status/1748397671604236509?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
There have been quite a few different coalitions to buy surplus equipment which is paid for and sent to Ukraine.
What should reasonably come quite soon are coalitions placing orders for new weapon platforms and ammunition with Ukraine as the final destination.
As said – a pretty big opportunity for Sweden to create industrial jobs here now that the PR part is done.
These 300 billion USD frozen from Russian assets can probably be used to start with, the Belgians probably hold about 50 billion of them?
If half of the EU chips in for new Taurus and puts pressure on Germany to allow the purchase – will they then say no to jobs for Germans, more exports, and supporting Ukraine?
Yes, there has been a dip in support for Ukraine and it came extremely unfortunately so that the next offensive was never resourced – throughout the entire war I have consistently overestimated the West’s willingness and actually ability for risk analysis and understanding of the world here but maybe I’m a bit biased…
However, things are really ramping up right now and further support is coming (we must not miss the F16), also never forget that Ukraine has done much more with less before so looking back it is not an existential threat as the Russian influence operation tries to paint it so the West should throw in the towel completely – but it is unfortunate and Ukraine pays for it with the currency of human lives.
Now this is almost becoming the daily preaching but do not underestimate all the liberation deeds happening in the country Russia right now.
The absolute arrogance of not fortifying the northern border against Ukraine, not having any border protection along the country’s other borders, and sending all defense capabilities to Ukraine is actually not incomprehensible because the West has given Putin guarantees through its actions that Ukraine will never take the war to Russia.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1748790326934847753?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It is incomprehensible that the West has waved its yellow cards more often than in a football match against Serbia though 🤬
The oil industry has been an absolute no-go zone for Ukraine, this has been communicated several times from various sources. Two rumors came out – that the West no longer stops liberation deeds in Russia and that their long-range weapons can be used in Russia, as well as that Russia started pulling air defenses from Ukraine to Russia. Now they pulled air defenses to a couple of the big bases near Ukraine as close protection, gathered in small isolated islands 😀
What is playing out right now is that Ukraine has either decided to seriously test the West like a stubborn teenager or that the above rumor is true because it is probably clear to everyone that the Russian oil industry and LNG are under violent attack right now 🤣
If you have listened to Budanov, which I hope everyone has, this was exactly what was supposed to happen – long-range drones striking Russia’s soft parts.
Don’t forget that Budanov has promised that Russia will be decolonized as well.
Two very important puzzle pieces: the liberation deeds against the oil industry have been going on for weeks and are not stopping, and the West has not said a word.
Many yellow cards were delivered during the invasion of Belgorod (Russia) completely openly.
Novorossiysk was a one-time event and Zelensky let us know that he got a yellow card but above all it was not a series of liberation deeds after that.
I am of the opinion that Ukraine has built up an enormous long-range capability and that there is no longer any opposition from the West to striking targets in Russia but we will see.
Then we have the ongoing “operation turn off the lights” which we discussed last summer whose outcome Ukraine watches with surprise, it is going better than their best-case scenario right now.
Ukraine has every right to retaliate proportionally and Russia has made the biggest missile efforts in the whole war recently.
The Russian shadow fleet assisting the special operations mission might be in trouble going forward 😀
There was an interesting discussion yesterday about weapons against drones that must be cheaper – my thought is that it should be a “shotgun cartridge” but that it should be fired close to the drone and not at the muzzle of the weapon.
Advanced electric barrel air defense (9040, Gepard) with fragmentation and thermal aiming and radar naturally has a future again but now it is more about the cheap weapon that exists at the squad level.
Then these advanced electric barrels don’t need to be mounted on a splinter-protected super-expensive weapon platform – you can do an ISIS and mount everything on a Hilux because the splinter-protected body is knocked out anyway by FPV drones but that was a side note.
Since it is hard to see the drones, you should probably have thermal sights or autonomous drone-killer-drones, or automated weapon platforms, even on the cheap squad weapons – just seeing the drone is one of the problems and being able to get a hit is the next problem.
Maybe like a very small fire-and-forget “air defense missile” (body for transport to the drone and a warhead like a shotgun cartridge) fired with handheld/vehicle-mounted something and maybe having about twenty “shots” in the magazine or an autonomous drone that delivers the shotgun cartridge close enough for a shot where you either fire them from a platform with about twenty in the magazine or a bigger drone that has these smaller drones that are released when they get contact with an enemy drone?
Now I’m not thinking exactly a shotgun cartridge but that explains it most clearly – small air defense missile sounds too expensive.
As LW probably wrote, there is no protection against such but EW weapons are in constant development of means-countermeasures.
Then the Brits have just finished testing their laser so maybe it will go in that direction instead, who knows.
Fun to dream and now this has probably been brought up but wow what speed on the drones in Busan 😀
https://twitter.com/rainmaker1973/status/1742850068669968762?s=46&t=8L5IbsvcVafDxqKYiQQmmQ
What Iran is up to is an absolute mystery to me but it is very worrying.
https://x.com/lucasfoxnews/status/1748759058163659130?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Historically, Iran has been on the same side as Pakistan but now it is missiles and death.
Then they have assisted some rebel group to shoot about twenty missiles at the US base in Iraq with wounded Americans.
First of all, Iran has escalated significantly here.
Secondly, Pakistan is a US ally and India took Iran’s side, and Afghanistan has just attacked Pakistan, so the question is whether the “axis of evil” has just chosen to test the West in a real situation here?
Pakistan is somewhat Western-allied and has provided ammunition to Ukraine, they are not the best of friends with India, and a nuclear power.
If there is a major war in the region between Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and Iran, it will become very chaotic.
I really didn’t see this coming at all, Pearsson really needs to give me my money back now for that crappy book he wrote 😀
This is what it looks like when the West hesitates and drags its feet – absolute legends, the Ukrainians ✊
https://x.com/lyla_lilas/status/1748383644542996505?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This looks like flares near Krunky, you start to understand why a battalion of Ukrainians with image intensifiers can hold out so long 😀
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1748683381980672084?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Unknown source and new ratio, so just bringing it up for discussion, does anyone have information that his ratio is anywhere near correct or is there a lot of fabrication?
https://x.com/jamesllandis/status/1748386277928387068?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w