11:32 – Johan No.1
Here is today’s positive post 😀
Before a counterattack, the force stands and listens to the Russian artillery in Avdiivka, disheartening to know that own artillery has no ammunition.
https://x.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1756538582058099112?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If we try to find a positive angle, it’s cloudy in Ukraine and we all know what happened in the Ardennes Offensive when it cleared up. However, maybe just drones alone don’t provide a decisive advantage and the risk is rather that the Russians’ AH-64s and special aircraft get easier access to their targets.
A little over two weeks until the anniversary of the three-week special operation and a little over a month until the presidential election.
Victory Day 2023 we saw the difference from the previous year – no equipment and no ammunition in the weapons, right?
I seem to recall hearing from Budanov that they weren’t allowed to drone the crap out of the parade last year but maybe I remember wrong in my eagerness to make my points?
Considering it is hunting season on the oil industry now, which SHOULD have been the West’s last red line, I expect spectacular liberation deeds on all three occasions above. The West SHOULD have no objections to a Grom 2 in the Kremlin.
Something extra like a swarm of drones on May 9 that hits groups of soldiers spread out over the parade, that Grom 2 in the Kremlin, Putin’s dacha exploding with walker tracks in the sand and some empty beer cans, or the Kerch Bridge finally sinking.
After all, there is a DHL courier van packed full of Semtex waiting for a call about an express delivery in a garage in a suburb near you in Moscow.
We must be clear that Ukraine can carry all this out, but so far the West has not approved Budanov’s wishlist because we are morally superior and simply know better; let not the torture-murdered and desecrated five-year-old children ruin this grand self-image of ours.
But it needs to be done because colonized indigenous peoples need to see that the emperor has no clothes and be compelled to regain control over their lives. Russia needs to turn inward.
Now that the West has decided that Ukraine will not be able to win on the battlefield in the near term, the only option left is to try this, and if the West protests, I sincerely hope Ukraine does what is right in 2024 and does not accept the yellow cards but burns all the rulebooks.
A better opportunity than Putin’s presidential election will not come for many years – this year is the chance to stir things up so that Putin loses control.
Then Ukraine’s IT army has succeeded beyond expectations, so the black-and-white swan song or Navalny winning on national TV should be seen together with reports of election fraud and then Putin-hostile candidates in various republics, etc., being declared winners on their TV channels.
We should also see cooperation with liberation movements in Belarus and Kaliningrad during 2024, which is increasing in strength – Ukraine are superheroes to these oppressed and unhappy indigenous peoples, especially the ancient Kaliningraders.
All this is on the bubble list, but I wonder if the committee can really slow this down by refusing to take it up; I will return with whether I can still predict outcomes on the bubble list.
If you, like the undersigned, thought the US response to Iran was lukewarm, which was well discussed in the thread, it gets worse if the rumor is to be believed. Too big a threat to their MENA bases, so many are to be evacuated 😐
How do you show Iran that violence does not pay – not like this anyway.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1756324228259856574?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This one is probably not dated but possibly Gerasimov, some restraint on that.
https://x.com/ralee85/status/1756443815458595071?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We will return to this in between, China has enormous problems.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1756551712024768913?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
My main thesis is, as you know, that China is not so eager for war, but the West must be careful not to provoke China because if one is on the decline, a war might be attractive as an out for the country’s leadership, but we are definitely not there yet. The card we have seen is that China is tired of Putin’s devastation and asked Iran to sit down and be quiet.
Here is the recently modified T62 for the 5th Tank Brigade. This is significant because it means the T62 is used offensively by prioritized brigades – does not feel like a huge force directly.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kl4nfpvqfw2z
Reality vs influence operation Canada-style. A Canadian family with nine children moved to Russia and left after two weeks. Social services probably have some questions.
https://x.com/petite_michelle/status/1756382750750183722?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This one was a bit funny – under the UNRWA headquarters in Gaza lay H…as’s data center and nervous system. Cables ran from the UNRWA server room down to the tunnels H..as used for its data center, so guess if UNRWA infrastructure was used 😀
With what has now come to light, it is crystal clear to me that Western aid has financed H…as’s rearmament and luxury life – to continue supporting on ideological grounds and wrap it in something nice today is not dignified. The West has done exactly right by cutting aid to UNRWA because the funds have obviously gone directly to H..as.
https://x.com/aizenberg55/status/1756410725965152399?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now there are protests every week in Moscow, nice.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1756261625688957048?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
As said, hard work is underway to get Tucker on the defensive, I think it will happen 😀
https://x.com/juliadavisnews/status/1756359300769837536?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This is what makes one go completely crazy over the West’s sluggishness; he has been fighting since 2015 and now his daughter has not seen him for two years 😭
https://x.com/tonyalevchuk/status/1756470143012512193?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
13:10 – MatsExtrude
I was about to write to your previous post that we still have something positive, and that is that Ukraine has started striking inside Russia. Then this post came! 👍
13:56 – Johan No.1
It was so positive that it got stuck in the filter 😀
16:42 – MatsExtrude
🤣
11:29 – Johan No.1
Just want to repost this summary of the prodigy Zalizhnys’ time as Chief of Defense, he is one of the greats in history who has left his post, tip of the hat and attention in the flip-flops. I’ve always liked Zalizhny because he managed to retain a humanity amidst all this death and also achieved the impossible. He took full responsibility for the spring offensive but the attentive remember that Zelensky chose not to mobilize the army before Russia attacked but he remains in office. Macron also remains, who promised Zelensky that Putin would not attack, or Scholz who thought Ukraine could give up land for peace for quite a while. So there is no shortage of more chances for quite a few.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kl2zn4i65s2b
Neill is one of the complainers but he has a point, if those dying on the front don’t feel that the right person has authority over their lives it can become negative and that worries me a bit.
Now Sirsky seems to be directly appointing lots of new commanders and David D is positive about those appointed which is reassuring – I have been sitting and reading the list and it’s all employees with long work experience.
https://x.com/neilphauer/status/1756470879142170805?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Starting to get going again slowly. Was titled a contraindicator yesterday and that’s maybe not entirely wrong, the last time I sulked was before Christmas 2022 and early January 2023 came the tank coalition because I was down – that correlation can’t be denied, right, but I don’t take all the credit for having steered that package to port, generous as I am 🧐
Not jumping on negative rumors but piecing together available information – right now it’s a serious low point where RU is advancing in several places. I have all autumn refused to believe that the West would completely abandon Ukraine but we are at a point where the gun barrels have gone silent and that is because ammunition has not been sent.
We were supposed to watch two indicators if you remember – RU mobilization and that UA starts to retreat.
Scholz has understood that all new lucrative weapons contracts don’t give Ukraine anything to shoot today but it took its time for that penny to drop and that Europe’s collective political elite didn’t figure it out before it was too late is frightening but quite like any group work in school.
There are a few more layers to that global onion bastard.
The West has scoured the world for old Eastern equipment and then in various exchange programs sent it to Ukraine, the latest being Ecuador and their surplus equipment.
Then came the Western weapons but surprisingly much was barely drivable surplus and then they topped up with 50 cool vehicles to dress up the pig (surely painted for effect).
I’ll say it again – Morocco just got to buy nearly 1000 Abrams and Bradley dirt cheap. Now there aren’t many Bradleys left to send even if the US decided to do so. Why did Morocco need these vehicles right now in the middle of a raging war?
A bit like the US lend-lease during WW2 only went to Brazil and Mexico where it was of no use, right 😐
We passed the point long ago where this was not enough, especially when it comes to ammunition.
Right now Ukraine is short on ammunition for HIMARS, 155mm, LV and rockets, don’t know how it is with ammunition for armored vehicles and small arms – hope it’s being sent. They have domestic production and Eastern calibers are made in the old Eastern states but to be able to carry out the spring offensive there was an enormous influx from South Korea that made it possible together with targeted large deliveries from the West.
They would, for example, now need a large number of armored vehicles to move protected against shrapnel and that can be sacrificed for terrain.
Waging war consumes enormous amounts of materiel and it is a finite resource that needs to be replenished continuously!
We spent most of 2023 lining up everything easily accessible, F-18s and helicopters in Australia that Ukraine tried to buy but Australia proceeded with scrapping.
-That company in Belgium that has 500 armored vehicles they never get to sell.
-2 million cluster munitions in the US to be scrapped.
-Large amounts of thermobaric grenades in the US to be scrapped.
-80,000 rockets in Canada to be scrapped.
-Thousands of ATACMS in various versions to be phased out.
-600 Bradleys in depot for scrapping.
-Then we have discussed materiel in barns and that the US has produced 70,000 armored cars/ptgb in various versions and that they have thousands of M113 in storage, M60 in storage, others in storage – stuff that will never be fielded and is to be phased out.
We have gone through that the countries behind the shield at a comfortable distance with coast to the Atlantic could pool together 15,000 armored vehicles in their fielded materiel without sweating or taking from readiness stocks of 155mm shells.
Then I have sometimes pointed out that countries in Europe place orders for new materiel for themselves that naturally should go to Ukraine instead and Borell said the same about the shells – other people’s contracts are prioritized.
Now the EU has approved 50 billion EUR to Ukraine but it seems mostly for reconstruction – doesn’t the war have to be won first someone asks but is immediately shot down for not understanding anything.
-300 billion USD is frozen Russian assets.
-Portugal is to get 22 billion EUR in some kind of recovery-reconstruction plan (of what…) and Spain is to get a whole 80 billion EUR.
-Does it look like there is a shortage of liquid funds, hardly. Just Spain and Portugal get double the support on a Saturday compared to what Ukraine has begged and pleaded for two years.
I understand that the West is now positioning itself for new weapons contracts and that it is attractive but it is enormously cynical and above all they buy for themselves first.
Now the discussions at Ramstein and within JEF just have to start being about how to buy up all the surplus materiel above, in storage or that which is to be scrapped.
Then the EU must set requirements against this enormous money bag Spain and Portugal managed to trick themselves into that they get to sell fielded materiel at new price with final destination UA, and ammunition.
If we don’t see this during 2024 I’m moving.
So we don’t need the US support package here, there is enough in the bank account and what is missing is that existing materiel and ammunition is not being bought and sent to Ukraine.
It’s not harder than that and above all don’t fall for the Russian influence operation that the West has nothing to send, that Europe has too little materiel without the US, and that Russia wins because they have the most materiel.
Thanks to covert cabal we have a pretty good idea of what remains in the Russian barns and it is significantly less than what exists in just a couple of countries in Europe that lie at a comfortable distance from the shield. The shield is armed like a hedgehog.
Russia needed ammunition from Iran, North Korea, and China (under the pretext that it was North Korea) to be able to continue this war – don’t forget that. Russia is by no means self-sufficient and has had up to rockets fired at Ukraine while Western rockets to Ukraine come with lots of geographical instructions so Russia can calmly train its CAA for the next offensive in bases right on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine.
So far, the West has sent equipment for beta testing and marketing as well as a lot of junk. That almost broke Russia’s back, so why not send a good amount of what’s just gathering dust in the warehouses, from the top shelf, and stomp Russia down in the potato fields?
There is a point to 15,000 – 20,000 blast-protected vehicles, the infantry can reach the attack objective protected against shrapnel, and they take terrain. If you don’t take terrain, you don’t retake Ukraine, and if you don’t retake Ukraine, there won’t be lasting peace.
You don’t take terrain with light vehicles, artillery, Budanov’s cloud of saboteurs, or infantry on the highway.
I have an idea (I think) about what Zalizhny meant with 2024 and am quite skeptical about the new “active defense” for the simple reason that it will – probably – give Putin the opportunity to quietly win the election and then fill the graves with newly mobilized troops, which was somewhat of a worst-case scenario.
I would have been the first to exclaim – Maskirovka – but now that Avdiivka is falling, Zalizhny is resigning, and the gun barrels have gone silent, even I find it hard to spin this positively.
The Russians have brought forward strategic reserves to northern Luhansk, so Ukraine is on the defensive there.
UA is in full retreat in Avdiivka and will probably have to bring in more reserves to stabilize, and there are new Russian units on the move down at the southern front.
Ukraine had found a way to fight and used indirect capabilities to their advantage so they could constantly win despite being outnumbered – you know that 1:5 ratio, and we saw all spring and summer how they took 1-2 wounded against 25 dead Russians in a defensive system.
And how well it worked!
And then the West comes in and pulls the rug out from under Ukraine by silencing all their indirect capabilities 🤬
I’m starting to get a bit worried about Krunky now, Russia has brought up a lot of new infantry attacking without heavy vehicles, and then the bridgehead is quite vulnerable once they get a foothold 😐
Avdiivka will likely be abandoned quite soon, things are moving too fast there now and it can only end one way.
West of Bakhmut, apparently the Russians are getting close to Chasiv Yar – take a look at the map.
We’ll see if there will be Russian attempts at Robotyne as well eventually, I’ve only read about the strategic reserves recently moved up behind the southern front and suspect they are to strike the bridgehead at the Dnipro to start with.
I don’t see Ukraine taking the fight for every meter with their offensive reserves today, they are pulling back locally where needed and then hope to convince the West to resource a new offensive.
UA has an acute ammunition shortage and it’s starting to show on the battlefield.
I’m prepared for some unpleasant news and hope Budanov can dilute them with spectacular liberation deeds.
I once made a comparison between Ukraine and when you fought someone in the schoolyard and his father came and you got a bit worried. Then your own parent came and you felt completely safe until your father was knocked flat by a right hook (not personally experienced 😀). The West risks being faced with a fait accompli here and just stand wide-eyed watching as Russia starts taking terrain, and then it’s too late. Then every Chief of Defense in the West will demand all material for their own country’s defense and no one likes a loser, so the terrain east of the Dnipro will then have to be abandoned by Ukraine.
A cheat-win if I ever saw one, the country Russia couldn’t manage this so they needed North Korea’s, Iran’s, and China’s full support.
Ukraine was fooled into thinking there wouldn’t be a war and then they weren’t allowed to conduct the war in Russia on equal terms, and when they finally got to do it, the West stopped sending ammunition and weapons.
The by far biggest threat right now is if European countries decide they need to strengthen their own armed forces before sending equipment to Ukraine – that is playing right into Putin’s hands.
That can happen quite quickly if Avdiivka and Krunky fall and it looks like Russia has momentum.
The West is damn like a bad circus joke, doing nothing after two years is simply official misconduct and punishable.
Good luck getting a battalion of Portuguese paratroopers to fight like the Marines in Krunky.
Or the French, they would have started whining about lack of brie cheese and taken the first boat across the river, maybe not the Legion.
The infantry in the trenches in Ukraine are fighting right now for free West and they are dying by the thousands because the West thinks they have time and has stopped sending ammunition and equipment to Ukraine.
As I said, I don’t jump on rumors but go by what is happening and right now there is a lot of bad news.
If equipment and ammunition arrive, that will change overnight but so far it hasn’t because the West is still asleep.