14:08 – MatsExtrude
👍 It didn’t become an essay, it became a whole novella!
Yes, when they have taken (or given up trying to take) Robotyne, they will probably try towards Krynky.
I have a hard time finding Krunky on the map, where is it??
The declining oil revenues I mentioned earlier only extended to the end of December, I don’t think there is fresher
data available. There is a risk that January will have slightly higher revenues since prices have risen again. If export revenues have not increased, we can be quite sure it is because the refineries have problems.
14:18 – Johan No.1
Yes, today it was long, if you are smart you divide it into two days and can be lazy the second day, but I’m not that smart.
Unpleasant little bulge in at Robotyne today…
14:23 – Johan No.1
Dubai is starting to close Russian accounts – it stings to be a married Oligarch nowadays one might begin to suspect.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1759508247923290558?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
14:37 – MatsExtrude
Yes, but I think it’s a bit of a strange attack direction. I would probably have tried to expand the scope and then tied up the sack. But maybe it was an advantageous way to advance.
15:24 – MatsExtrude
As I understand it (from Konstantin, Inside Russia), Dubai is the Russians’ latest favorite hideout where they have been welcome throughout the war.
If that is true, it’s really good. Maybe more will follow.
The Russians should be kept in Russia so they feel the sanctions.
13:16 – Johan No.1
Meetings so didn’t manage to post earlier,
Using Deepstate for once so not running ahead of everything – RU has advanced in the Robotyne bulge, it was a significant change in one day which is always worrying and they are getting closer to Ivaniske and Chasiv Yar.
Gregg is worried about Bilohorivka and RU continues towards Lechtokyne after Avdiivka but it’s going so-so because it is excellent defensive terrain if you go by the map trek.
For those of you who thought Avdiivka was a one-off, RU now has advances in several places due to the ammunition shortage which is now absolutely critical – it is indisputable.
I know MXT thought the first attack in the south would be at Krunky but it is quite likely that RU will throw themselves over Krunky pretty soon as well, they have deployed units for that and have been trying to take that bridgehead for months.
We were supposed to watch for whether UA started to retreat or Russian mobilization or how and now UA is retreating broadly on several front sections – so it is a sharp situation and the West absolutely cannot afford to sleep through this anymore. The collective West must send everything UA points to now.
An absolute worst-case scenario (which will not happen) – RU gains advance at Robotyne and moves up towards Zaporishia and then Dnipro and “rolls up” the old ATO line in the process – if there is an ammunition shortage then there is, but now everything seems to be starting up slowly and this will not happen but it is the risk the West is taking right now with its dragging feet.
“If you value your freedom you cannot remain neutral, this is your war too” said Blair about Yugoslavia.
He had a hell of a time getting the US on board for a ground invasion of the Serb-occupied areas and did like Scholz and went to the US but Blair was a recognized skilled politician unlike Scholz who only has the hairstyle setting the trend for 2024. Absolutely no one listens when a heavy German accent with a fully shaved head calls for violent war or how – almost can’t find a worse combo.
Macron has so far positioned himself for French arms contracts and the UK with Sunak went out hard but has absolutely not taken any lead, Sunak is mostly a nice suit so it went quiet – there is simply no Blair in Europe today even though Macron thinks he is our time’s Napoleon or De Gaulle.
Actually, no politician has yet had Mette Frederiksen’s integrity and gone all-in even though we should have done so 1.5 years ago when the news about Bucha and Irpin broke.
Sweden has absolutely not gone all-in, we have done okay but could do infinitely much more. The countries with a coast on the Atlantic and enjoy the protection of the entire shield should be ashamed out of their eyes for their arrogance but everyone who has done schoolwork knows how hard it is to get everyone to pull in the same direction.
Scholz navigates as best he can but is still on the watchlist because of Taurus and most recently he didn’t want von der Leyen as NATO chief because she was a Russophobe – what more is needed on the CV really to become NATO chief wonders all the rest of us?
Yes this sounds simple but it absolutely is not, first you have to understand the situation, then you have to have the platform to act from, then you have to have the integrity and courage to dare to stand out with something unknown and then you have to be a social prodigy so you get everyone else on board. Many pieces have to fall into place and if I may guess, right now Nicky Haley is closest to our time’s Churchill moment. Yes it’s fun that Czechia and Latvia have taken the lead in support per capita here but no one listens to them.
Looking a bit in the rearview mirror it has been notoriously difficult to get the US on board all the wars they don’t start themselves. They find all excuses not to participate, in WW1 they joined only in 1917 and in WW2 the Japanese got them involved in 1941 otherwise it probably would have taken two more years one can guess.
Then the US felt they were immortal and through the costly Korean War they took a big hit in Vietnam. Then they fully exploited their status and ran some smash-and-grab wars in the 90s which in hindsight were not so pretty and here we are now.
Then of course all the wars they started themselves have gone terribly – everyone has probably seen Black Hawk Down.
And all the wars they avoided as long as they could and then joined in grand style have led to enormous windfalls and world-changing events.
Looks good thus. The US is quite tired of war and they probably haven’t felt that the world has directly welcomed their efforts as world police in recent years and if they had the slightest self-awareness they would understand why.
Biden will very soon start to be colored by this. If Hailey wins the primaries it’s game over for Biden is my guess given how he has slow-walked this. Terrible advisors in an election year simply.
Even Trump will quite soon figure out how to get at Biden and the commander in chief has already tried to blame everything on Congress which is a very transparent lie if you read David D.
Europe will probably bridge from the emergency stocks a bit longer and start sending from new production but my money is on the US having managed to sort this out and can resource UA’s next offensive. The logistics should already be worked out and when the decision is made everything can be sent immediately.
Everything is thus already in the barns and just needs to be sent both from Europe and the US.
As soon as Biden understands that helping Ukraine will be an election issue they will ramp up. It IS strange how we got here because the US was a superhero in Ukraine until last fall when they threw them under the bus. Biden could have capitalized enormously on this if he had understood the explosive power but so far has clearly listened to the wrong advisors.
It’s always nice that Denmark has read the thread, taken in the message and is now sending unit-equipped materiel. And that the undersigned is humble and does not take all the credit.
More countries should follow but it’s worth pointing out again that this could have been done in May 2022 and Ukraine then would have had a resourced offensive in autumn 2022 when the Russians were really on the decline if more countries had done the same.
The point worth making is that throughout this whole war we have had two sides – “send X now” and “X will never be sent, I know because I am knowledgeable in the area” and a year later Ukraine is flooded with “X” just far too late. Those who were knowledgeable are then silent on the matter.
We have speculated in the thread that the West has tried to prolong the war as long as possible to inflict RU the greatest possible damage but if Budanov had been unleashed on Russia’s oil industry already in 2022 this greatest possible damage would have been inflicted earlier wouldn’t it?
Then NATO officers also did not insist on the spring offensive in the way they did – I don’t believe there is any truth to that claim.
However, it IS consistent with too little, too late, and many restrictions that Ukraine is forced to follow. At the NATO meeting in 2023, many also expressed that Ukraine should be grateful instead of ungrateful, which was more than tone-deaf and signaled how many in the West still viewed the war a year into it – arrogance, inability to read the room, and lack of risk analysis.
Since I have a diagnosed positivity, I believe this year will be the year when Ukraine gets what it needs for its smashing victory, even though history tells us that the West will drag things out for another whole year.
Now several countries are talking about sending AI kamikaze drones in the thousands to Ukraine within months, Denmark is sending from reserve stocks and unit-equipped materiel, and someone else has found 300,000 155mm shells from reserve stocks that they are ready to sell for cash.
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1758876555713847610?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Production is already in full swing and will improve during 2024, but contracts other than Ukraine’s are prioritized – here we have to hope that changes very soon because the selfishness of countries safely behind Ukraine’s defense of perimeter defenses is at a preschool level. That I..el got the entire production of 155mm from the USA until Christmas is a spectacular scandal.
The feeling from what is now being announced – JDAMS, offensive AI drones, a batch of 155mm – is that this is resource allocation for an offensive.
F-16s are on their way with long-range missiles, we know that, 60 aircraft in total or thereabouts, right?
There should be news soon about cluster munitions, HIMARS ammunition, ATACMS, SS and heavy vehicles, or they will just be sent and we will see the mushroom clouds increase again.
I also have the feeling that Ukraine will not start an offensive before the F-16s are in place this time, and then this materiel is the critical line. Right now, June is being talked about, which I hope is not true 😐
However, that does not prevent Ukraine from carrying out local offensives when and where they can; Sirsky has so far proven capable.
If we go back to the breakthrough and focus on the Azov thrust area (it could be anywhere) – Ukraine must get through a minefield that we now know is very deep and it will be the same at the next offensive.
They then have a width to clear that is defended by some weakened brigade in defense, and there are three lines except at the Dnieper where it is not as developed or east of Vuhledar.
Ukraine fully masters the capture of defense systems today – work experience is king.
Their pre-attack is probably a combination of guided munitions, cluster munitions, regular ammunition, and drones, so it can be considered fairly lethal and accurate – which other country has guided munitions that can handle horizontal small openings in a bunker?
It is my opinion that they can decimate the defense heavily before the ground assault is launched.
Then the defense will expose itself in the defense systems and indirect fire becomes even more effective as well as direct fire with tanks at 4 km distance.
After that, the task force is critical for Ukraine; it will try to smash straight into Ukraine and push them back, and Russia showed great aggressiveness throughout the spring offensive with this.
Sometimes Ukraine wiped out the entire task force on the highway before it arrived, and considering that the drone weapon has expanded, they should be able to have a broader screen, detect the task force in good time, and then eliminate it in time.
Ukraine has enough heavy vehicles, the 8,500 delivered have by far not been knocked out, right, and now deliveries should come continuously. I would like to see those 15,000 – 20,000 heavy vehicles so Ukraine knows they don’t have to save and can trade terrain for vehicles.
When they have broken through and the task force is eliminated, Russia has reinforcements from nearby front sections – and that is why Ukraine attacked in four places on the southern front to tie everything up.
And then they have strategic reserves that are +1 week away and must go through chokepoints that can be knocked out with HIMARS and missiles.
Combine this with strong pre-attack and then the same campaign against depots and the railway network and it will work.
It worked in 2022, it should have worked in 2023 but the mines stopped Ukraine and lack of air defense made Ahkp and FAB bombs effective.
This year’s offensive will naturally deliver the Azov thrust at least, worth testing if that is enough and if not, a large number of brigades will be released and continue with the next area.
Frozen fronts and a negotiated peace exist only with Putin and in Russian psyops now that the West has finally come out of its coma and begun sending unit-equipped materiel.
The entire spring offensive signaled to Russia that the area behind the southern front had lower priority than other areas and we think we know why.
After the first Belgorod raids, we realized to our great surprise that the border was completely unguarded. If Russia lets the NS line through Svatove go and retreats to its land border, they suddenly have three times the length of the northern front to defend – completely impossible.
The easiest would be to anchor everything in the rivers Oskil and Siversky Donets.
If Russia is forced to choose, they will abandon the southern front – that has been the thread’s analysis for a long time.
I cannot understand why Europe does not lift volunteers to Ukraine to the skies, it has been the passionate individuals who refuse to give up so far and both Ukraine and Europe have thought wrong here. Russia has understood this and has about 50,000 “volunteers” in the war.
The fact is that over time Russia will make this a proxy war if they can by recruiting from other countries. Wagner in Africa runs training camps and then it’s off to war.
Why Ukraine refuses to make it easy for motivated volunteers from Europe is a mystery to me. PMCs carefully avoid fighting in Ukraine – bad for business when everyone dies the first week.
Instead of starting to mobilize unwilling Ukrainians, they mobilize volunteers from the European pool with combat experience or conscription.
Noteworthy also is that Ukraine is asking for artillery ammunition, specialized aircraft, and ammunition for air defense. They are not actually asking for heavy vehicles. We know Kuwait had a few hundred tanks to send, we know Morocco is sending 100 T72s, I..el was to send 100 Merkavas to some third party. Ukraine has some kind of cooperation with Rosomak-ptgb and the first German IFVs will be produced in Ukraine in 2024 – 10 units, I think?
-It seems more Bradleys have arrived possibly via Greece – 60 units?
-Perhaps some Abrams too?
-The Germans have sent 30 Marders and a few hundred BMPs, I think. There seemed to be more CV90s on the way.
-The Bulgarians are sending 100 BTR-60s
-Then Ukraine has full production of its own infantry fighting vehicle and apparently license-produces 5 HUMVEEs and M113s per month.
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1759226137392173277?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
-The Canadians have probably also delivered 300 of the 1,000 heavy vehicles they could contribute.
It will be the same patchwork of vehicles again this year, a rolling circus camp 😀
Add to that that now when Ukraine goes on defense, all existing vehicles with technical faults are sent to service in rear workshops and to all workshops in Eastern Europe.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Ukraine has come up with some simple solution with better armament on all the BMP-1s and BTR-60s they are getting now.
The conclusion can only be that there is a substantial mechanized offensive reserve here, right, because there is.
In hindsight, it is easy to see what went wrong with the spring offensive, and since UA air defense was not enough to fend off Ahkp and FAB traps, the F-16 will make a difference. My theory that with air defense RU aircraft would be denied access to the fronts was not fulfilled for the simple reason that they did not have enough air defense. However, UA can achieve air superiority deep in with its own drones and guided ammunition plus cluster munitions. At times, they have struck at the spearhead aircraft, both the airbases and then hit-and-runs with air defense, but they have come back. At Avdiivka, 50 FAB500-1500 bombs have been dropped per day, and they are terrible weapons that must be removed.
We have all seen that RU is losing SU-34/35 and not the old SU-25 anymore. I don’t know if it can really be extrapolated from that; can the older ones not drop FAB bombs, or are they at airbases worn out and with technical faults?
The mining is handled by Ukraine, but they must get the spearhead aircraft and air defense.
Then Ukraine again needs to work down the artillery and maintenance ahead of its own large offensive, so some lead time.
Last year, the whole world was waiting for massive mechanical failures when the thread had already decided that it would be a battle like in Bakhmut for the entire offensive on May 4 when it started. This year everyone expects that, and then naturally there will be mechanical failures instead. This year terrain will be retaken.
Then RU has lost 50,000 at Avdiivka; when this is summarized in a few months, it should be 50,000 in northern Luhansk and 50,000 along the entire southern front as well.
Since it is the spearhead that is depleted in the reverse Darwinism among the Russians, it makes a big difference for future defense – they have half a million in Ukraine with everything counted?
The barbaric losses have every chance to be ATH again for February or the other third highest in the entire war.
The strategic reserves are probably worn out until the election.
Do you remember when we talked about the miracle at Vuhledar and how brigade after brigade was “zeroed,” was it about 8 near the Robotyne area in an attack that never got started where first 4 brigades attacked and then 4 more. At Vuhledar, we got it to 8-12 or thereabouts?
Now I feel we have more information that it was really as bad as we guessed, and at the southern front, the brigades remain and can be assumed not full-strength.
Noted something interesting on Twitter, Swedish accounts all have an older person who is about to pass away or has just passed away or recently lost a wife or child. All are in deep grief and great darkness. I never click on them, but there are more and more. Quite curious about what the purpose behind this is. If it goes from zero such cases to a new one every day over a few weeks, it is probably something new that has started, but it is a bit too psychologically deep for me to understand this.
The anniversary is approaching – let’s see what fireworks Budanov has. I see it as a given that Budanov will disrupt the election as much as he can, and this year’s May 9 will be exciting.
For those of you who are knowledgeable about this, please let me know how Russian oil and refined product exports declined between December – January and then in February, because then we know how much has been knocked out. I know you posted something MXT but don’t remember if it was January or December?